Livestock policy paradoxes:
Promulgating a crisis?
Or providing a solution?
16th Asian Australasian Animal Production Congress
Sustainable Livestock Production in the Perspective of Food Security,
Policy, Genetic Resources and Climate Change
Yogyakarta, Indonesia 10–14 November 2014
Jimmy Smith  Director General  ILRI

How to feed 10 billion people?

Food price crisis 2007/08:
What can we learn?

Abundant food:
Dealing with excess

Food comes from the supermarket
(NOT)

Agricultural investment as portion of ODA
fell from >15% in mid 80’s to <2.5% by early 2000

A ‘perfect storm’?

8
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
FAO food price index

The crisis:
The doubling of food prices

Mixed benefits:
The poor lost out

Global aggregate food balance is not a good indicator
of food security--Distribution matters as much

Trade matters: but its not a perfect system as the
food price crisis showed –local markets matter too

Secret or privileged information:
in a ‘black box -food stockpiles

The rush for resources to produce food –land grab or
foreign direct investment?

The Livestock Revolution:
Another ‘perfect storm’? Or a new opportunity?

% increase in production of livestock products:
2000–2050
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Raw milk Monogastric
meat & eggs
Ruminant meat
Europe
Latin America
Africa/Middle East
%
Herrero et al. 2014

17
Percentage growth in demand
for livestock products: 2000−2030
Based on anticipated change in absolute tonnes of product comparing 2000 and 2030 FAO, 2012

16
14
12
10
8
Less than 2 ha per person −
shared with at 6
least 5 animals
4
2
0
Billion ha land per 1 million population
Thousands of ha per person
-10000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000

Demand for livestock commodities will be met –
the only question is how
Scenario #1
Africa meets
livestock demand by
importing livestock products

Demand for livestock commodities will be met –
the only question is how
Scenario #1
Africa meets
livestock demand by
importing livestock products
Scenario #2
Africa meets
livestock demand by
importing livestock industrial production know-how

Demand for livestock commodities will be met –
the only question is how
Scenario #1
Africa meets
livestock demand by
importing livestock products
Scenario #2
Africa meets
livestock demand by
importing livestock industrial production know-how
Scenario #3
Africa meets
livestock demand by
transforming smallholder livestock systems

Smallholders still dominate
livestock production in many countries

BMGF, FAO, ILRI
Smallholders still dominate
livestock production in many countries
Region
(definition of
‘smallholder’)
% production by smallholder livestock farms
Beef Chicken
meat
Sheep/goat
meat
Milk Pork Eggs
East Africa
(≤ 6 milking
animals)
60-90
Bangladesh
(< 3ha land)
65 77 78 65 77
India
(< 2ha land)
75 92 92 69 71
Vietnam
(small scale)
80
Philippines
(backyard)
50 35

What policies can make the biggest difference?

1 Encourage smallholder competitiveness
with scale-neutral policies

2 Facilitate broad-based growth
with potential to transform rural economies

3 Enhance local markets and market access

4 Mitigate zoonoses and food safety risks

5 Protect the environment
(balanced incentives)

What we learned during and since
the food price crisis of 2008
1. Food is both a private and
public good – often a national
security issue

What we learned during and since
the food price crisis of 2008
1. Food is both a private and
public good – often a national
security issue
2. Paying attention to food
policy and investment is critical

What we learned during and since
the food price crisis of 2008
1. Food is both a private and
public good – often a national
security issue
2. Paying attention to food
policy and investment is critical
3. In a crisis, global solidarity
goes out the window

What we learned during and since
the food price crisis of 2008
1. Food is both a private and
public good – often a national
security issue
2. Paying attention to food
policy and investment is critical
3. In a crisis, global solidarity
goes out the window
4. The poor, individuals and
countries, suffer more from
such crises

What we learned during and since
the food price crisis of 2008 (cont.)
5. Governments hesitate to
commit to agriculture,
particularly livestock, and to
smallholders

What we learned during and since
the food price crisis of 2008 (cont.)
5. Governments hesitate to
commit to agriculture,
particularly livestock, and to
smallholders
6. To remove this hesitancy,
smallholders must contribute
to national food and nutritional
security, economic growth and
transformation – not just to
their own self-sufficiency

What we learned during and since
the food price crisis of 2008 (cont.)
5. Governments hesitate to
commit to agriculture,
particularly livestock, and to
smallholders
6. To remove this hesitancy,
smallholders must contribute
to national food and nutritional
security, economic growth and
transformation – not just to
their own self-sufficiency
7. The livestock sector offers
some of the best opportunities

Thank you!

Artworks
SLIDES 1, 2: Paul Klee, ‘Colourful Group’, 1939
SLIDE 3: James and Michael Fitzgerald, ‘Leptosome’ (via theprojecttwins.com)
SLIDE 4: Cow Butcher Diagram – ‘Use Every Part of the Cow’ cuts of beef poster (via Etsy)
SLIDE 5: Azzaharahman (via Instagram)
SLIDES 1, 6: Martin Devine, ‘Irish Farm’ (via ebsqart.com)
SLIDE 7: Ancient Australian aboriginal art (via lancelot47.livejournal.com)
SLIDE 8: Marc Chagall, ‘A Wheatfield on a Summer's Afternoon’, 1942 (via Wikiart)
SLIDE 9: Brian Cairns, ‘Eggs’ (via briancairns.com)
SLIDE 10: ‘La vaquita parda’ (via tierradehojas.blogspot.com.es)
SLIDE 11: Fabio Sironi illustration, printed in the 2010 calendar of Italian NGO Amani (via
AFRONLINE)
SLIDES 1, 12: Yuki Sasameya: ‘Untitled’ (via en.tis-home.com)

Artworks (cont.)
SLIDE 13: Nguyen Phan Chanh, 'La Marchand de Riz' ('The Rice Seller'), 1932
SLIDE 14: Abner Graboff illustration, ‘The Hungry Goat’ (via stickersandstuff.blogspot.com.es)
SLIDE 15: Animal silhouettes (via Twitter.com)
SLIDE 20: Gunnlaugur Scheving (via http://samuel.is)
SLIDE 22: ‘Keep Calm and Milk a Cow’ poster (via Etsy)
SLIDE 23: ‘More Livestock, More Manure’ poster, Que Binh, Vietnam, 1972
SLIDE 24: ‘Family Farms Produce 70% of the Food Consumed in the World’ poster (via
www.foodtank.com)
SLIDES 25, 30: Olivia Fraser, ‘Blue Dawn’, 2012 (via bbc.co.uk)
SLIDE 26: Artist unknown, Vietnam poster (via animalsvietnam.wordpress.com)
SLIDE 27: Kauniste Maatila, ‘Green Farm’; handprinted kitchen linens inspired by 60s & 70s
Finnish textiles (via store.mjolk.ca)
SLIDES 28, 29: Simi Gauba, ‘Tell-a-tale’ (via tigerprint.typepad.com)

better lives through livestock
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