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1
FOLKESTONE
REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK
JULY 2015
2
ECONOMIC
OUTLOOK
3
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Mar-90
Mar-93
Mar-96
Mar-99
Mar-02
Mar-05
Mar-08
Mar-11
Mar-14
Mar-17
ECONOMIC CONDITIONS – NATIONAL GROWTH
Private New Capital Expenditure:
2000 – 2015
• Economic growth remains below trend – the transition from mining has been slow
• Businesses appear reluctant to invest until the economy improves
• The RBA has pushed the timing out for a recovery in non-mining investment until later in 2016
Source: ABS, Bloomberg, RBA
Australian GDP Growth:
1990 – 2017
Average
= 3.1%
Average
= 2.8%
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Mar-00
Mar-01
Mar-02
Mar-03
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mining Manufacturing Other Industries
$bn
4
ECONOMIC CONDITIONS – STATE GROWTH
State Final Demand:
2000 – 2015
• Population growth has slowed in the past year but still high for a developed nation
• VIC recorded the strongest growth (1.8%) and was just below NSW in terms of absolute growth
• WA and QLD population growth has slowed due to mining downturn
• Economic growth across the States reflecting the economic transition from mining
Source: ABS
Population Growth:
Year to Dec 2014
-6.0%
-3.0%
0.0%
3.0%
6.0%
9.0%
12.0%
15.0%
Mar-00
Mar-01
Mar-02
Mar-03
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
NSW VIC QLD WA
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
1.8%
2.0%
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
VIC
WA
NSW
QLD
ACT
SA
TAS
No. of People % Increase
WA
QLD
NSW
VIC
5
• Yields have fallen to historic lows across the yield curve
• Markets now factoring in another rate cut by late 2015/early 2016 following RBA cuts in February and May
• For investors, key to look at long-end of curve (10 year yields) – will this increase as economic recovers and/or
follow global yields higher
Yields:
2005 – 2015
FINANCIAL MARKET CONDITIONS - YIELDS
Cash Rate Expectations:
12 Months to December 2016
Source: IRESS, The Yield Report
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
Jun05
Jun06
Jun07
Jun08
Jun09
Jun10
Jun11
Jun12
Jun13
Jun14
Jun15
90 Day Bills 3 Yr Bonds 10 Yr Bonds
1.0%
1.1%
1.2%
1.3%
1.4%
1.5%
1.6%
1.7%
1.8%
1.9%
2.0%
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
*As at 10 July 2015
6
PROPERTY MARKET
OUTLOOK
7
Non-Residential Property Total Returns:
2003 – 2015
AUSTRALIAN MARKET CONDITIONS – NON-RESIDENTIAL
• March 2015 - total return was 10.7% underpinned by strong income return of 6.9%
• Direct property has provided stable returns for past 5 years in a period of financial market volatility
• Capital values in upswing phase driven by further cap rate compression rather than real estate fundamentals
• Industrial has been the best performing sector over 1 and 3 years – likely to continue in FY16
Source: MSCI, IPD
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Mar-15
Capital Return Income Return Total Return
RollingAnnualReturns
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Australian
Industrial
Australian
Other
Australian
Retail
All
Property
Australian
Office
1 Year 3 Years
Total Returns by Sector:
1 and 3 Years to March 2015
8
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
CBD Office Major Regional Retail
Neighbourhood Retail Industrial Warehouse
10 Year Bonds
AUSTRALIAN MARKET CONDITIONS – CAP RATES
Cap Rates vs. Historical Peak and Average:
June 2015
• Disconnect between capital markets and space markets highlighted in recent sector dynamics:
• cap rates have firmed while vacancy rates remain elevated and income growth is subdued
• prices being driven by weight of money not underlying real estate fundamentals
• Cap rates have fallen most for industrial – lowest spread from historical average
• Expect further cap rate compression in FY16 driven by weight of money
Cap Rates vs. 10 Year Bond Yields:
2005 – 2015
Still not back to
pre-GFC levels
Source: MSCI, IPD
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
Secondary
Office
Bulky
Goods
Neighbourhood
Retail
Prime
Office
Sub-Regional
Retail
Regional
Retail
Syd
Secondary…
SydPrime
Industrial
Spread From Historic Avg. Spread From Previous Peak
9
AUSTRALIAN MARKET CONDITIONS – TRANSACTIONS
Non-residential Transaction Volume By
Key Sector: 2008 – 2015
• In 6 months to June 2015, just under $10bn was transacted in the office, retail and industrial sectors
• Activity running below levels in 1st half of 2014 due to stock availability rather than capital drying up
• Foreign investors accounted for 45% of transaction value in the past six months
• Office remains the key target for foreign investors (Sydney and Melbourne), although growing interest in prime industrial and hotels
Source: DTZ
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Office Retail Industrial
$bn
Domestic vs. Foreign Investment Activity:
2012 - 2015
*
*Six months to June 2015
10
AUSTRALIAN MARKET CONDITIONS – GLOBAL CAPITAL
• Low interest rate environment, strong relative pricing and quantitative easing in some markets have led to strong growth in
global capital targeting real estate
• Global investment activity is set to close in on 2007 peak levels by end of 2015
• Global capital focusing on gateway cities - Melbourne and Sydney rank high on the shopping list
• Japan followed by Australia and China are the main targets by institutional investors in Asia Pacific region
Investment in Major Global Cities:
Q2 2014 – Q1 2015
Source: DTZ
Investor Target Markets by Region:
2015
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
C.London
Manhattan
SanFrancisco
Tokyo
LosAngeles
Paris
Melbourne
WashingtonDC
Boston
Chicago
Sydney
HongKong
Dallas
Singapore
Miami
North America
Europe
Asia Pacific
US
Mexico
Canada
Brazil
UK
Germany
France
Spain/
Italy
Benelux
Nordics
CEE
Other
Japan
Australia
China
Singapore
S. Korea
Hong Kong
Other
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Americas EMEA Asia Pacific
11
• Vacancy rates reflect divergent economic growth prospects of the major markets
• Sydney the only CBD market to record a single digit vacancy – 7.8%
• Effective rental growth has been subdued in Sydney and Melbourne and negative in other CBDs due to high
vacancy and elevated incentives
AUSTRALIAN MARKET CONDITIONS – OFFICE
CBD Office Vacancy Rates:
Dec 2014 – Jun 2015
Source: JLL
Prime Effective Rental Growth:
Year to March 2015
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%
Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane
Adelaide
Canberra
Perth
Dec-14 Jun-15
-20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0%
Perth CBD
Adelaide CBD
Brisbane CBD
Canberra
Sydney CBD
Melbourne CBD
12
AUSTRALIAN MARKET CONDITIONS – RETAIL
Retail Sales vs. Consumer Confidence:
2002 – 2015
• Retail sales growth has improved but driven by household goods (impact of strong housing market)
• Consumer confidence remains weak – therefore cautious on spending
• However, lower confidence partly offset by strong population growth, rising house prices and equity values (the “wealth effect”)
Source: ABS
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
75
85
95
105
115
125
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
%Changepcp
Index
Consumer Confidence (LHS) Retail Sales (RHS)
Retail Turnover by Type:
Year to May 2015
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%
Houshold Goods
Cafes, Restaurants &
Takeaway
Total
Food Retailing
Clothing, Footwear &
Accessory
Other Retailing
Department Stores
13
Aldi, Coles & Woolworths – Annual Sales Growth:
2011-2014
AUSTRALIAN MARKET CONDITIONS – RETAIL
• Competition in supermarket sector is increasing
• ALDI now a genuine third supermarket operator
• The competition between Coles and Woolworths is not new – who is number 1 changes over time
Source: Company Reports and JP Morgan
Aldi, Coles & Woolworths – Sales per Sq.m:
2010-2014
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014
ALDI Coles Woolworths
LikeforLike(SalesGrowth)
$0.0
$5.0
$10.0
$15.0
$20.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
ALDI Coles Woolworths
$'000/sq.m.
14
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
Warehouse Distribution Industrial Estate Other
1 Year Return 3 Years Return
Investment Performance Across Industrial Sub-Sectors:
1 and 3 Years to March 2015
• Warehouse and distribution centres have performed strongly in recent years – investors chasing prime assets
• Industrial performance being driven by:
• investors chasing higher yields relative to office and retail
• on-going transformation of industrial landscape – more distribution centres and changing land-use of inner ring industrial areas
• industrial distribution centres – demand high due to e-commerce, retail trade and change in transport networks
AUSTRALIAN MARKET CONDITIONS – INDUSTRIAL
Source: IPD/MSCI
AnnualisedReturn
15
Dwelling Values – Major Capital Cities:
1 Year and 10 Years to June 2015
• Housing boom has not been uniform across Australia
• Sydney has been standout performer – up 16.2% in the past year however over 10 years it is 5.4% p.a. one of the
weakest
• Sydney and Melbourne, considered global cities - rank 10 & 11 on global basis based on growth in year to March
2015 (latest available nos.)
Source: Core Logic/RP Rismark, Knight Frank Residential Research, Douglas Elliman/Millare Samuel, Ken Corporation
AUSTRALIAN MARKET CONDITIONS – RESIDENTIAL
-10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0%
Sydney
Melbourne
Adelaide
Brisbane
Canberra
Hobart
Perth
Darwin
12 Months to June 2015
Average 10 Years to June 2015 (p.a.)
Prime Global Cities Index:
1 Year to March 2015
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0%
San Francisco
Bengaluru
Miami
Vancouver
Jakerta
Tel Aviv
Tokyo
Dublin
Los Angeles
Sydney
Melbourne
Seoul
Cape Town
Hong Knog
Madrid
Bangkok
London
Mumbai
Delhi
Shanghai
16
AUSTRALIAN MARKET CONDITIONS – RESIDENTIAL
Housing Finance by Type of Borrower:
1995 – 2015
• Investor activity is driving the residential market
• However, despite all the hype about apartments off-plan sales, investors are preferring established housing
• APRA macro-prudential controls on bank lending will impact the investor market
• Strong link between interest rates and housing sector – investors need to be cognisant of interest rate increases down the track
Source: ABS
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
May95
May97
May99
May01
May03
May05
May07
May09
May11
May13
May15
$bn(s.a.)
Owner Occupier - Construction
Owner Occupier - Purchase of New Dwellings
Owner Occupier - Purchase of Existing Dwellings
Investment - Construction
Investment - Purchase of Dwellings
Building Approvals and Monetary Policy:
1991 - 2015
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
240,000
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jun-91
Jun-93
Jun-95
Jun-97
Jun-99
Jun-01
Jun-03
Jun-05
Jun-07
Jun-09
Jun-11
Jun-13
Jun-15
NoofApprovals(RollingAnnual)
%
Cash Rate (LHS) Building Approvals (RHS)
Tightening Cycles
17
AUSTRALIAN MARKET CONDITIONS – RESIDENTIAL
Multi-Unit Dwelling as % of Total
Dwelling Completions: 1986 - 2015
• Apartments now key part of the market – 41% of completions in year to March 2015 – due to lifestyle/demographic changes, affordability (apartments
28% cheaper than houses in Sydney) and planning changes
• Inner Melbourne, Inner Brisbane & South Sydney apartment markets heading for an oversupply – better value in middle/outer ring suburbs, mixed-use
developments and around transport nodes
• Land sales falling across Australia since peaking in 2013 – driven by Sydney where lot sales down 29.7% in March quarter and almost 50% below
record set in December quarter 2013
• Media lot price in Sydney now $365,000 - 64% higher than Melbourne ($222,000) and Brisbane ($228,000)
Source: ABS, HIA, CoreLogic RPData
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
Mar-1987
Mar-1989
Mar-1991
Mar-1993
Mar-1995
Mar-1997
Mar-1999
Mar-2001
Mar-2003
Mar-2005
Mar-2007
Mar-2009
Mar-2011
Mar-2013
Mar-2015
(RollingAnnual)
Residential Land Sales and Medium Lot
Values – Capital Cities: 2010 - 2015
170,000
180,000
190,000
200,000
210,000
220,000
230,000
240,000
250,000
260,000
270,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
MarQtr10
SepQtr10
MarQtr11
SepQtr11
MarQtr12
SepQtr12
MarQtr13
SepQtr13
MarQtr14
SepQtr14
MarQtr15
Number of Sales (LHS) Price Per Lot (RHS)
$
18
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
May-85
May-88
May-91
May-94
May-97
May-00
May-03
May-06
May-09
May-12
May-15
NSW Houses NSW Apartments NSW Total
No.ofApprovals(permonth)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
May-88
May-91
May-94
May-97
May-00
May-03
May-06
May-09
May-12
May-15
VIC Houses VIC Apartments VIC Total
No.ofApprovals(permonth)
House and Apartment Approvals – NSW and Victoria:
1988 – 2015
• NSW approvals declined significantly between 2003 and 2008 – leading to current undersupply and price pressures
• VIC approvals continue to run ahead of long-term average and also ahead of NSW – better planning system
• Declining affordability, concerns of oversupply in some sub-markets, supply bottlenecks (Sydney planning) will see supply taper off in 2016
Source: ABS
AUSTRALIAN MARKET CONDITIONS – RESIDENTIAL
19
Performance of the Top Five A-REITs:
Year to June 2015
• More capital being allocated in both the listed and unlisted real estate markets to alternative assets such as early learning, medical/health and seniors living
• 4 of the top 5 performing A-REITs in the year to June 2015 were social infrastructure related
• Alternate sectors typically higher yields than office, retail and industrial, although yield gap closing due to growing investor interest in alternate assets
• Benefits of investing in social infrastructure typically include longer leases (often 10 years or more), net or triple net leases (whereby the operator/ tenant
pays outgoings and is responsible for repairs and maintenance), often government backed cash flows & lower volatility compared to other assets
Source: ABS
AUSTRALIAN MARKET CONDITIONS – SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE
Early Learning Centre Sale Yields:
2010 - 2015
0.0% 20.0% 40.0%
National Storage
REIT
GrowthPoint
Properties
Arena REIT
Folkestone
Education Trust
Hotel Property
Investments 3.0%
5.0%
7.0%
9.0%
11.0%
13.0%
15.0%
Jan-10
Oct-10
Aug-11
Jun-12
Apr-13
Feb-14
Dec-14
Yield
Metro Yields Regional Yields
Linear (Metro Yields) Linear (Regional Yields)
20
A-REIT SECTOR
OUTLOOK
21
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Industrial
A-REITs
Retail
A-REITs
Total
A-REIT
Office
A-REITs
Diversified
1 Year 3 Years 5 Years
A-REIT – Total Returns:
to 30 June 2015
• A-REITs outperformed equity and bonds in year to June 2015 – 2nd time in 3 years
• Industrial A-REITs were the best performing A-REIT sector over 1 and 3 years – 27.5% and 24.0% p.a.
• Expect performance to moderate in FY16 to longer-term averages – circa 10%
• Short-term volatility (general equity flows in & out of sector/ market sentiment) will continue to be a feature of A-REITs in FY16
• A-REIT’s in better shape than pre GFC – lower gearing, more sustainable pay-out ratios, focused strategies
A-REIT SECTOR PERFORMANCE
Source: UBS
(%p.a.)
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015
A-REITs Equities Bonds
Year ending June
A-REITs vs. Equities vs. Bonds:
2012 - 2015
22
A-REIT Sector EPU and DPU Yields vs.
10 Year Australian Bond Yields: 1990 – 2015
• Despite strong price performance of A-REITs, spread between A-REIT yields and 10 year bonds still wide - DPU spread circa 225 bps –
well above long-term average of 60 bps
• A-REIT yield very attractive relative to other major global REIT markets on both absolute yield and relative spread to 10 year bonds
• a key reason for strong inflows into A-REITs from global investors
• High correlation with movement in bond yields – A-REITs could come under short-term pricing pressure if bond yields move up
Source: JPMorgan, Bloomberg
A-REIT SPREADS
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Jun-00
Jun-01
Jun-02
Jun-03
Jun-04
Jun-05
Jun-06
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
10 Yr AU Bond Yield A-REIT EPU Yield A-REIT DPU Yield
23
SUMMARY
 Australia’s economic growth to remain below trend
 Wall of money chasing real estate assets, especially non-residential assets will continue
 Biggest challenge for investors will be finding attractive investment opportunities in a competitive market place
 Industrial and real estate related social infrastructure to outperform
 Seniors living sector is expected to offer significant investment opportunities
 Wide divergence in performance of Australia’s housing sub-markets to continue
 Momentum in the Sydney and Melbourne residential markets is set to slow
 Strong return from A-REITs in FY15 unlikely to be repeated – move back to long-term average
 Investors need to identify and quantify the risk in their real estate portfolios and focus on the underlying real estate fundamentals
 “This time it’s different” does not abolish the real estate cycle
24
FOLKESTONE’S FOCUS IN FY16
 Specific investment opportunities rather than focusing on top-down sector calls
 focus on mispriced assets;
 where we can add value;
 Look to manufacture ‘core’ product rather than relying on competition lender process
 Focus on early learning, particularly developing centres within 15km radius of CBDs and outer growth corridors and look for
opportunities in the seniors living sector
 Maintain conservative leverage levels and structures in our income and development funds
 Continue to stress test assets under various interest rate scenarios
25
REAL ESTATE IQ
Register at:
www.folkestone.com.au/real-estate-iq/
26
DISCLAIMER:
This paper has been published for information purposes only. The information contained in this paper is of a general nature only and does not constitute financial product
advice. This presentation has been prepared without taking account of any person's objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of that, each person should, before
acting on this presentation, consider its appropriateness, having regard to their own objectives, financial situation and needs. You should consult a professional investment
adviser before making any decision regarding a financial product.
In preparing this presentation the author has relied upon and assumed, without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information available from
public sources or which has otherwise been reviewed in preparation of the paper. The information contained in this paper is current as at the date of this paper and is subject
to change without notice. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.
Neither Folkestone Limited, nor any of their associates, related entities or directors, give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information
contained in this paper. Except insofar as liability under any statute cannot be excluded, Folkestone Limited and its associates, related entities, directors, employees and
consultants do not accept any liability for any loss or damage (whether direct, indirect, consequential or otherwise) arising from the use of this paper.
If a product managed by Folkestone Limited or its associates is acquired, Folkestone Limited or its associates and related entities may receive fees and other benefits. The
author of this paper does not receive commissions or remuneration from transactions involving the financial products mentioned in this paper.
DIRECTORY
Folkestone Limited
ASX Code: FLK
Website: www.folkestone.com.au
ABN: 21 004 715 226
Level 12, 15 William Street
Melbourne Vic 3000
T: +61 3 8601 2092
Level 10, 60 Carrington Street
Sydney, NSW 2000
T: +61 2 8667 2800
Board of Directors:
Garry Sladden – Non-Executive Chairman
Mark Baillie – Non-Executive Deputy Chairman
Greg Paramor – Managing Director
Ross Strang – Non-Executive Director
Company Secretary:
Scott Martin
Investor Relations:
Lula Liossi
T: +61 3 8601 2668
Email: lliossi@folkestone.com.au
Registry:
Boardroom Pty Limited
PO Box R67, Royal Exchange NSW 1223
Telephone: 1300 131 856 or +61 2 9290 9600
E-mail: enquiries@boardroomlimited.com.au
Website: www.boardroomlimited.com.au

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Folkestone Real Estate Outlook

  • 3. 3 -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Mar-90 Mar-93 Mar-96 Mar-99 Mar-02 Mar-05 Mar-08 Mar-11 Mar-14 Mar-17 ECONOMIC CONDITIONS – NATIONAL GROWTH Private New Capital Expenditure: 2000 – 2015 • Economic growth remains below trend – the transition from mining has been slow • Businesses appear reluctant to invest until the economy improves • The RBA has pushed the timing out for a recovery in non-mining investment until later in 2016 Source: ABS, Bloomberg, RBA Australian GDP Growth: 1990 – 2017 Average = 3.1% Average = 2.8% 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mining Manufacturing Other Industries $bn
  • 4. 4 ECONOMIC CONDITIONS – STATE GROWTH State Final Demand: 2000 – 2015 • Population growth has slowed in the past year but still high for a developed nation • VIC recorded the strongest growth (1.8%) and was just below NSW in terms of absolute growth • WA and QLD population growth has slowed due to mining downturn • Economic growth across the States reflecting the economic transition from mining Source: ABS Population Growth: Year to Dec 2014 -6.0% -3.0% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% 9.0% 12.0% 15.0% Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 NSW VIC QLD WA 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0% 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 VIC WA NSW QLD ACT SA TAS No. of People % Increase WA QLD NSW VIC
  • 5. 5 • Yields have fallen to historic lows across the yield curve • Markets now factoring in another rate cut by late 2015/early 2016 following RBA cuts in February and May • For investors, key to look at long-end of curve (10 year yields) – will this increase as economic recovers and/or follow global yields higher Yields: 2005 – 2015 FINANCIAL MARKET CONDITIONS - YIELDS Cash Rate Expectations: 12 Months to December 2016 Source: IRESS, The Yield Report 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% Jun05 Jun06 Jun07 Jun08 Jun09 Jun10 Jun11 Jun12 Jun13 Jun14 Jun15 90 Day Bills 3 Yr Bonds 10 Yr Bonds 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9% 2.0% Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 *As at 10 July 2015
  • 7. 7 Non-Residential Property Total Returns: 2003 – 2015 AUSTRALIAN MARKET CONDITIONS – NON-RESIDENTIAL • March 2015 - total return was 10.7% underpinned by strong income return of 6.9% • Direct property has provided stable returns for past 5 years in a period of financial market volatility • Capital values in upswing phase driven by further cap rate compression rather than real estate fundamentals • Industrial has been the best performing sector over 1 and 3 years – likely to continue in FY16 Source: MSCI, IPD -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Mar-15 Capital Return Income Return Total Return RollingAnnualReturns 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% Australian Industrial Australian Other Australian Retail All Property Australian Office 1 Year 3 Years Total Returns by Sector: 1 and 3 Years to March 2015
  • 8. 8 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 CBD Office Major Regional Retail Neighbourhood Retail Industrial Warehouse 10 Year Bonds AUSTRALIAN MARKET CONDITIONS – CAP RATES Cap Rates vs. Historical Peak and Average: June 2015 • Disconnect between capital markets and space markets highlighted in recent sector dynamics: • cap rates have firmed while vacancy rates remain elevated and income growth is subdued • prices being driven by weight of money not underlying real estate fundamentals • Cap rates have fallen most for industrial – lowest spread from historical average • Expect further cap rate compression in FY16 driven by weight of money Cap Rates vs. 10 Year Bond Yields: 2005 – 2015 Still not back to pre-GFC levels Source: MSCI, IPD 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% Secondary Office Bulky Goods Neighbourhood Retail Prime Office Sub-Regional Retail Regional Retail Syd Secondary… SydPrime Industrial Spread From Historic Avg. Spread From Previous Peak
  • 9. 9 AUSTRALIAN MARKET CONDITIONS – TRANSACTIONS Non-residential Transaction Volume By Key Sector: 2008 – 2015 • In 6 months to June 2015, just under $10bn was transacted in the office, retail and industrial sectors • Activity running below levels in 1st half of 2014 due to stock availability rather than capital drying up • Foreign investors accounted for 45% of transaction value in the past six months • Office remains the key target for foreign investors (Sydney and Melbourne), although growing interest in prime industrial and hotels Source: DTZ 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Office Retail Industrial $bn Domestic vs. Foreign Investment Activity: 2012 - 2015 * *Six months to June 2015
  • 10. 10 AUSTRALIAN MARKET CONDITIONS – GLOBAL CAPITAL • Low interest rate environment, strong relative pricing and quantitative easing in some markets have led to strong growth in global capital targeting real estate • Global investment activity is set to close in on 2007 peak levels by end of 2015 • Global capital focusing on gateway cities - Melbourne and Sydney rank high on the shopping list • Japan followed by Australia and China are the main targets by institutional investors in Asia Pacific region Investment in Major Global Cities: Q2 2014 – Q1 2015 Source: DTZ Investor Target Markets by Region: 2015 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 C.London Manhattan SanFrancisco Tokyo LosAngeles Paris Melbourne WashingtonDC Boston Chicago Sydney HongKong Dallas Singapore Miami North America Europe Asia Pacific US Mexico Canada Brazil UK Germany France Spain/ Italy Benelux Nordics CEE Other Japan Australia China Singapore S. Korea Hong Kong Other 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Americas EMEA Asia Pacific
  • 11. 11 • Vacancy rates reflect divergent economic growth prospects of the major markets • Sydney the only CBD market to record a single digit vacancy – 7.8% • Effective rental growth has been subdued in Sydney and Melbourne and negative in other CBDs due to high vacancy and elevated incentives AUSTRALIAN MARKET CONDITIONS – OFFICE CBD Office Vacancy Rates: Dec 2014 – Jun 2015 Source: JLL Prime Effective Rental Growth: Year to March 2015 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Canberra Perth Dec-14 Jun-15 -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% Perth CBD Adelaide CBD Brisbane CBD Canberra Sydney CBD Melbourne CBD
  • 12. 12 AUSTRALIAN MARKET CONDITIONS – RETAIL Retail Sales vs. Consumer Confidence: 2002 – 2015 • Retail sales growth has improved but driven by household goods (impact of strong housing market) • Consumer confidence remains weak – therefore cautious on spending • However, lower confidence partly offset by strong population growth, rising house prices and equity values (the “wealth effect”) Source: ABS 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 75 85 95 105 115 125 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 %Changepcp Index Consumer Confidence (LHS) Retail Sales (RHS) Retail Turnover by Type: Year to May 2015 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Houshold Goods Cafes, Restaurants & Takeaway Total Food Retailing Clothing, Footwear & Accessory Other Retailing Department Stores
  • 13. 13 Aldi, Coles & Woolworths – Annual Sales Growth: 2011-2014 AUSTRALIAN MARKET CONDITIONS – RETAIL • Competition in supermarket sector is increasing • ALDI now a genuine third supermarket operator • The competition between Coles and Woolworths is not new – who is number 1 changes over time Source: Company Reports and JP Morgan Aldi, Coles & Woolworths – Sales per Sq.m: 2010-2014 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 ALDI Coles Woolworths LikeforLike(SalesGrowth) $0.0 $5.0 $10.0 $15.0 $20.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 ALDI Coles Woolworths $'000/sq.m.
  • 14. 14 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% Warehouse Distribution Industrial Estate Other 1 Year Return 3 Years Return Investment Performance Across Industrial Sub-Sectors: 1 and 3 Years to March 2015 • Warehouse and distribution centres have performed strongly in recent years – investors chasing prime assets • Industrial performance being driven by: • investors chasing higher yields relative to office and retail • on-going transformation of industrial landscape – more distribution centres and changing land-use of inner ring industrial areas • industrial distribution centres – demand high due to e-commerce, retail trade and change in transport networks AUSTRALIAN MARKET CONDITIONS – INDUSTRIAL Source: IPD/MSCI AnnualisedReturn
  • 15. 15 Dwelling Values – Major Capital Cities: 1 Year and 10 Years to June 2015 • Housing boom has not been uniform across Australia • Sydney has been standout performer – up 16.2% in the past year however over 10 years it is 5.4% p.a. one of the weakest • Sydney and Melbourne, considered global cities - rank 10 & 11 on global basis based on growth in year to March 2015 (latest available nos.) Source: Core Logic/RP Rismark, Knight Frank Residential Research, Douglas Elliman/Millare Samuel, Ken Corporation AUSTRALIAN MARKET CONDITIONS – RESIDENTIAL -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% Sydney Melbourne Adelaide Brisbane Canberra Hobart Perth Darwin 12 Months to June 2015 Average 10 Years to June 2015 (p.a.) Prime Global Cities Index: 1 Year to March 2015 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% San Francisco Bengaluru Miami Vancouver Jakerta Tel Aviv Tokyo Dublin Los Angeles Sydney Melbourne Seoul Cape Town Hong Knog Madrid Bangkok London Mumbai Delhi Shanghai
  • 16. 16 AUSTRALIAN MARKET CONDITIONS – RESIDENTIAL Housing Finance by Type of Borrower: 1995 – 2015 • Investor activity is driving the residential market • However, despite all the hype about apartments off-plan sales, investors are preferring established housing • APRA macro-prudential controls on bank lending will impact the investor market • Strong link between interest rates and housing sector – investors need to be cognisant of interest rate increases down the track Source: ABS 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 May95 May97 May99 May01 May03 May05 May07 May09 May11 May13 May15 $bn(s.a.) Owner Occupier - Construction Owner Occupier - Purchase of New Dwellings Owner Occupier - Purchase of Existing Dwellings Investment - Construction Investment - Purchase of Dwellings Building Approvals and Monetary Policy: 1991 - 2015 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 220,000 240,000 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Jun-91 Jun-93 Jun-95 Jun-97 Jun-99 Jun-01 Jun-03 Jun-05 Jun-07 Jun-09 Jun-11 Jun-13 Jun-15 NoofApprovals(RollingAnnual) % Cash Rate (LHS) Building Approvals (RHS) Tightening Cycles
  • 17. 17 AUSTRALIAN MARKET CONDITIONS – RESIDENTIAL Multi-Unit Dwelling as % of Total Dwelling Completions: 1986 - 2015 • Apartments now key part of the market – 41% of completions in year to March 2015 – due to lifestyle/demographic changes, affordability (apartments 28% cheaper than houses in Sydney) and planning changes • Inner Melbourne, Inner Brisbane & South Sydney apartment markets heading for an oversupply – better value in middle/outer ring suburbs, mixed-use developments and around transport nodes • Land sales falling across Australia since peaking in 2013 – driven by Sydney where lot sales down 29.7% in March quarter and almost 50% below record set in December quarter 2013 • Media lot price in Sydney now $365,000 - 64% higher than Melbourne ($222,000) and Brisbane ($228,000) Source: ABS, HIA, CoreLogic RPData 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% Mar-1987 Mar-1989 Mar-1991 Mar-1993 Mar-1995 Mar-1997 Mar-1999 Mar-2001 Mar-2003 Mar-2005 Mar-2007 Mar-2009 Mar-2011 Mar-2013 Mar-2015 (RollingAnnual) Residential Land Sales and Medium Lot Values – Capital Cities: 2010 - 2015 170,000 180,000 190,000 200,000 210,000 220,000 230,000 240,000 250,000 260,000 270,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 MarQtr10 SepQtr10 MarQtr11 SepQtr11 MarQtr12 SepQtr12 MarQtr13 SepQtr13 MarQtr14 SepQtr14 MarQtr15 Number of Sales (LHS) Price Per Lot (RHS) $
  • 18. 18 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 May-85 May-88 May-91 May-94 May-97 May-00 May-03 May-06 May-09 May-12 May-15 NSW Houses NSW Apartments NSW Total No.ofApprovals(permonth) 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 May-88 May-91 May-94 May-97 May-00 May-03 May-06 May-09 May-12 May-15 VIC Houses VIC Apartments VIC Total No.ofApprovals(permonth) House and Apartment Approvals – NSW and Victoria: 1988 – 2015 • NSW approvals declined significantly between 2003 and 2008 – leading to current undersupply and price pressures • VIC approvals continue to run ahead of long-term average and also ahead of NSW – better planning system • Declining affordability, concerns of oversupply in some sub-markets, supply bottlenecks (Sydney planning) will see supply taper off in 2016 Source: ABS AUSTRALIAN MARKET CONDITIONS – RESIDENTIAL
  • 19. 19 Performance of the Top Five A-REITs: Year to June 2015 • More capital being allocated in both the listed and unlisted real estate markets to alternative assets such as early learning, medical/health and seniors living • 4 of the top 5 performing A-REITs in the year to June 2015 were social infrastructure related • Alternate sectors typically higher yields than office, retail and industrial, although yield gap closing due to growing investor interest in alternate assets • Benefits of investing in social infrastructure typically include longer leases (often 10 years or more), net or triple net leases (whereby the operator/ tenant pays outgoings and is responsible for repairs and maintenance), often government backed cash flows & lower volatility compared to other assets Source: ABS AUSTRALIAN MARKET CONDITIONS – SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE Early Learning Centre Sale Yields: 2010 - 2015 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% National Storage REIT GrowthPoint Properties Arena REIT Folkestone Education Trust Hotel Property Investments 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% 9.0% 11.0% 13.0% 15.0% Jan-10 Oct-10 Aug-11 Jun-12 Apr-13 Feb-14 Dec-14 Yield Metro Yields Regional Yields Linear (Metro Yields) Linear (Regional Yields)
  • 21. 21 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% Industrial A-REITs Retail A-REITs Total A-REIT Office A-REITs Diversified 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years A-REIT – Total Returns: to 30 June 2015 • A-REITs outperformed equity and bonds in year to June 2015 – 2nd time in 3 years • Industrial A-REITs were the best performing A-REIT sector over 1 and 3 years – 27.5% and 24.0% p.a. • Expect performance to moderate in FY16 to longer-term averages – circa 10% • Short-term volatility (general equity flows in & out of sector/ market sentiment) will continue to be a feature of A-REITs in FY16 • A-REIT’s in better shape than pre GFC – lower gearing, more sustainable pay-out ratios, focused strategies A-REIT SECTOR PERFORMANCE Source: UBS (%p.a.) -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 A-REITs Equities Bonds Year ending June A-REITs vs. Equities vs. Bonds: 2012 - 2015
  • 22. 22 A-REIT Sector EPU and DPU Yields vs. 10 Year Australian Bond Yields: 1990 – 2015 • Despite strong price performance of A-REITs, spread between A-REIT yields and 10 year bonds still wide - DPU spread circa 225 bps – well above long-term average of 60 bps • A-REIT yield very attractive relative to other major global REIT markets on both absolute yield and relative spread to 10 year bonds • a key reason for strong inflows into A-REITs from global investors • High correlation with movement in bond yields – A-REITs could come under short-term pricing pressure if bond yields move up Source: JPMorgan, Bloomberg A-REIT SPREADS 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 10 Yr AU Bond Yield A-REIT EPU Yield A-REIT DPU Yield
  • 23. 23 SUMMARY  Australia’s economic growth to remain below trend  Wall of money chasing real estate assets, especially non-residential assets will continue  Biggest challenge for investors will be finding attractive investment opportunities in a competitive market place  Industrial and real estate related social infrastructure to outperform  Seniors living sector is expected to offer significant investment opportunities  Wide divergence in performance of Australia’s housing sub-markets to continue  Momentum in the Sydney and Melbourne residential markets is set to slow  Strong return from A-REITs in FY15 unlikely to be repeated – move back to long-term average  Investors need to identify and quantify the risk in their real estate portfolios and focus on the underlying real estate fundamentals  “This time it’s different” does not abolish the real estate cycle
  • 24. 24 FOLKESTONE’S FOCUS IN FY16  Specific investment opportunities rather than focusing on top-down sector calls  focus on mispriced assets;  where we can add value;  Look to manufacture ‘core’ product rather than relying on competition lender process  Focus on early learning, particularly developing centres within 15km radius of CBDs and outer growth corridors and look for opportunities in the seniors living sector  Maintain conservative leverage levels and structures in our income and development funds  Continue to stress test assets under various interest rate scenarios
  • 25. 25 REAL ESTATE IQ Register at: www.folkestone.com.au/real-estate-iq/
  • 26. 26 DISCLAIMER: This paper has been published for information purposes only. The information contained in this paper is of a general nature only and does not constitute financial product advice. This presentation has been prepared without taking account of any person's objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of that, each person should, before acting on this presentation, consider its appropriateness, having regard to their own objectives, financial situation and needs. You should consult a professional investment adviser before making any decision regarding a financial product. In preparing this presentation the author has relied upon and assumed, without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information available from public sources or which has otherwise been reviewed in preparation of the paper. The information contained in this paper is current as at the date of this paper and is subject to change without notice. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. Neither Folkestone Limited, nor any of their associates, related entities or directors, give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information contained in this paper. Except insofar as liability under any statute cannot be excluded, Folkestone Limited and its associates, related entities, directors, employees and consultants do not accept any liability for any loss or damage (whether direct, indirect, consequential or otherwise) arising from the use of this paper. If a product managed by Folkestone Limited or its associates is acquired, Folkestone Limited or its associates and related entities may receive fees and other benefits. The author of this paper does not receive commissions or remuneration from transactions involving the financial products mentioned in this paper. DIRECTORY Folkestone Limited ASX Code: FLK Website: www.folkestone.com.au ABN: 21 004 715 226 Level 12, 15 William Street Melbourne Vic 3000 T: +61 3 8601 2092 Level 10, 60 Carrington Street Sydney, NSW 2000 T: +61 2 8667 2800 Board of Directors: Garry Sladden – Non-Executive Chairman Mark Baillie – Non-Executive Deputy Chairman Greg Paramor – Managing Director Ross Strang – Non-Executive Director Company Secretary: Scott Martin Investor Relations: Lula Liossi T: +61 3 8601 2668 Email: lliossi@folkestone.com.au Registry: Boardroom Pty Limited PO Box R67, Royal Exchange NSW 1223 Telephone: 1300 131 856 or +61 2 9290 9600 E-mail: enquiries@boardroomlimited.com.au Website: www.boardroomlimited.com.au