Scottish Urban Air Quality Steering Group Modelling and Monitoring Workshop - Stephen Thomson Presentation - Client Experience and Journey Ahead

1. Client experience and journey ahead Dr. Stephen Thomson Head of Environment & Sustainability

2. Knots and problems
Summary of current position: Data & Monitoring
Opportunities and challenges
Stakeholder survey findings
Introduction to workshop
Stakeholders

3. SUAQ: To provide direction for work on Urban Air Quality in Scotland & to drive specific areas of work, associated with LES
TS
SG
HPS
SEPA
GCC

4. Planning
LES Framework
Health
Transport
Sustainability
Modelling & Monitoring
LES working groups

5. Knots and problems
We need to create free, robust, integrated and supported AQ decision making tools across scales and sectors

6. “What’s wrong with the tools that we’ve got” “We don’t have the time or resource” “How can we work together” “Not a simple problem, but its not a unique problem”

7. Key Stages
•Define the task.
•Match task parts with distinctive capabilities of different contributing organisations.
•Divide and distribute the work.
•Measure progress.
“A careful, focused definition of a problem can open the way to novel solutions”.

8. Summary of current position at a national level (in TS)
6 models

9. “We don’t have a single national model that applies to every scale”
“Appraisal must be proportionate and pragmatic (not unique to AQ)”

10. “Tool(kit)s is a more reasonable phrase, rather than referring to a national model”
“Identifying the right levers will drive your data collection”

11. Queensferry Crossing
SESTRANS
at the strategic level
AWPR

12. 898 Traffic monitoring sites

15. Roadside AQ monitoring
No No2 SO2 O3 CO
aun_no, aqmesh7_no, aqmesh14_no 050100Sep 08Sep 09Sep 10Sep 11Sep 12Sep 13aun_no aqmesh7_no aqmesh14_no

16. AQ appraisal needs…
‘It is essential that there are detailed and high quality (1) traffic data available across Scotland, especially in densely populated city centres and surrounding areas.’ LES draft (Nov 14)
(2) Sum of emissions from vehicles
(3) dispersion model

17. Local models
•
Perth City Centre
•
Dundee
•
Aberdeen
Models are built from various data sources, with analysis from microsimulation

18. Microsimulation: Scheme based analysis
•
Model individual vehicles for
schemes
•
Real time information
•
Complex metrics
•
Realistic analysis
•
Post processing using AIRE tool

19. Origin destination modelling
•
What are we trying to model and why?
•
Models have specific purpose (ladle vs spoon)
•
Grain and scale of model is key
•
Models are intrinsically complicated…how to share skills and model assumptions

20. Opportunities & Challenges
ACTION: A national air quality modelling methodology will be developed.

21. ‘Essential that LES is supported by modelling, data requirements and decision making, that is undertaken in a consistent manner to the same standards’
Opportunities & Challenges

22. Opportunities & Challenges
‘…AQAM seeks a standardised approach to modelling air quality at the regional and local scales.’
‘…help LA’s to explore possible LEZ scenarios and other effective measures.’
‘Modelling the potential effectiveness of the LES measures is a necessary part of the process.’

23. Opportunities & Challenges
Good understanding of, and ability to source, traffic data, is essential but perhaps still missing

24. BEST PRACTICE: How to analyse and present model / data outputs
GUIDANCE: Outlining essential modelling and data requirements
TOOLS: Web-based interactive data products
GUIDANCE: How to deal with modelling uncertainty
Opportunities & Challenges

25. Thoughts: AQMM approach...
MODEL
Modelling Assessment
LEZ Framework
PURPOSE
National, Scotland-wide, linked to planning decisions, cross- boundary
Local, area specific, link to AQMA assessment, linked to LEZ scoping
PROCESS
AQMA modelling, LATIS, STAG, DPMTAG
Spotfire and MATlab tools, AIRE
DATA
AURN data, NTDS
Limited proxy data available
RESOURCE
Scottish Government, Transport Scotland, SEPA
Transport Scotland, SEPA, Local Authorities, consultants, urban big data

26. Stakeholder survey
Question
Answer
Organisations to include?
Planning, development control, local businesses, operators
Training needs?
Dispersion modelling, sensitivity analysis
Main Challenges?
Traffic counts, funding, complexity of modelling, stakeholder acceptance
Other bodies to help?
Collate and provide transport data, training
Future key actions
Training, robust peer review of process
Governance?
Regular meetings, clear structure, open up models to scrutiny and peer review, right players, ability to procure specialist skills
Observations?
Very little time to acquire and share knowledge (to become aware of AQMM), expert/specialist are key.

27. Stakeholder survey

28. Workshop introduction
•
clear joint understanding of the tools we have at the moment
•
what new decision making tools we need
•
resources we have available to deliver these new tools