Science Sandwich - AdaPT Mont-Blanc
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The document summarizes the results of the AdaPT Mont-Blanc project on the impacts of climate change in the Mont-Blanc massif region. Key findings include an observed increase in average annual temperatures of 2°C since the early 20th century, with accelerated warming since the 1980s. Snow cover duration is projected to significantly decrease by 2050, and glaciers are projected to largely disappear from the region by 2100 under high emissions scenarios. This will negatively impact winter tourism but could provide new opportunities for summer activities. Agriculture and infrastructure are also expected to face challenges from a warmer climate.
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Science Sandwich - AdaPT Mont-Blanc
- 1. AdaPT Mont-Blanc project results Climate change in the Mont-Blanc massif : impacts on the environment and human activities December 10, 2019 Chamonix-Mont-Blanc
- 2. Introduction - ESPACE MONT-BLANC
- 3. Introduction - ESPACE MONT-BLANC Edoardo Cremonese, Brad Carlson, Gianluca Filippa, Paola Pogliotti, Irene Alvarez, Jean Pierre Fosson, Ludovic Ravanel & Anne Delestrade
- 4. © Amis du Vieux Chamonix (photo de 1890) & CREA Mont-Blanc (photo de 2015)
- 5. Introduction Climate parameters Physical environmentLiving environment Human activities Tourism | Agriculture | Natural hasards
- 6. Observed climate changes Climate parameters Temperature +2° C in average annual temperature since the beginning of the 20th Century in Chamonix (accelerated warming since the 1980s) Precipitation Extreme weather No significant change in annual precipitation, except for a slight increase in winter precip. In the northern French Alps Recent increase in the intensity, duration and frequency of summer heat waves since 2000
- 7. (Corona-Lozoda et al. 2019) Summerheatwaveindex(JJA) � Clear increase in heat wave occurrence and intensity beginning in 2000 Observed climate changes Year
- 8. Climate parameters Temperature Overall increase of 1 à 1.5°C in 2035 / 2 à 3°C d’ici 2050 Stronger increase expected in the summer Precipitation Extreme weather Uncertain: +5/10% in winter / -10/20% in summer More frequent & intense • Heat waves: from 5 to 15-20 days per summer below 1000m in 2050 • Storms: +10/20% frequency in heavy precipitation events (>20mm) during the winter and spring • Drought • Spring frost (?) Predicted climate changes
- 9. Emissions scenario Trend T° increase RCP 8.5 Continuation of business as usual +2°C by 2050, +4-5°C by 2100 RCP 4.5 Reduced emissions beginning in 2050 +1.5°C by 2050, +3°C by 2100 RCP 2.5 Strong reduction in emissions starting now Equilibrium, + < 2°C by 2100 Observed climate change
- 10. Emissions scenario Trend T° increase RCP 8.5 Continuation of business as usual +2°C by 2050, +4-5°C by 2100 RCP 4.5 Reduced emissions beginning in 2050 +1,5°C by 2050, +3°C by 2100 RCP 2.5 Strong reduction in emissions starting now Equilibrium, + < 2°C by 2100 Observed climate change Use of RCP 4.5 et RCP 8.5 for maps, all scenarios considered for statistical analysis Paris agreement
- 11. Emissions scenario Trend T° increase RCP 8.5 Continuation of business as usual +2°C by 2050, +4-5°C by 2100 RCP 4.5 Reduced emissions beginning in 2050 +1,5°C by 2050, +3°C by 2100 RCP 2.5 Strong reduction in emissions starting now Equilibrium, + < 2°C by 2100 Observed climate change Use of RCP 4.5 et RCP 8.5 for maps, all scenarios considered for statistical analysis Paris agreement Meteorological data: Spatial data:
- 12. Environmental impacts Physical environment Snow cover - currentNb.ofdays
- 13. Physical environment Snow cover - 2050 0 jours Environmental impacts Nb.ofdays
- 14. Aig. du Midi Grand Pilier d’AngleGrands Montets Physical environment Permafrost Environmental impacts (Magnin et al. 2017) • Ongoing degradation of high-mountain permafrost expected in the massif
- 15. Physical environment • Strong observed thinning and retreat during recent decades, accelerating since the 1980s (Moreau & Ravanel 2018) Environmental impacts Glaciers
- 16. Physical environment Glaciers Environmental impacts Future change of the Mer de Glace
- 17. Physical environment Glaciers Environmental impacts • RCP 8.5: disappearance of the Argentière Glacier in 2080 and of the Mer de Glace in 2100 (Vincent et al. 2019) Future change of the Mer de Glace
- 18. Physical environment © CREA Mont-Blanc Environmental impacts Soil moisture 2050 water balance RCP 8.5 Current water balance • Drying out of above treeline habitats
- 19. Physical environment Water runoff • 2060 : increased winter and spring runoff and decreased summer and fall runoff • Transition from snow to rain-regulated watersheds + + - - Environmental impacts Mean hourly runoff for the Dora di Veny (Mont-Blanc)
- 21. Living environment Environmental impacts Growing season length • Observed ‘greening’ of the Alps during recent decades, which is expected to continue Forest & tall shrub Grassland and heath Rocky Grassland Scree and talus Snow, glacier, cliff© CREA Mont-Blanc
- 22. Living environment © CREA Mont-Blanc • Observed ‘greening’ of the Alps during recent decades, which is expected to continue Environmental impacts Forest & tall shrub Grassland and heath Rocky Grassland Scree and talus Snow, glacier, cliff Growing season length © CREA Mont-Blanc
- 23. Living environment Environmental impacts • Observed ‘greening’ of the Alps during recent decades, which is expected to continue Forest & tall shrub Grassland and heath Rocky Grassland Scree and talus Snow, glacier, cliff Growing season length © CREA Mont-Blanc
- 24. Treeline Living environment Environmental impacts • Increasing observed and predicted forest cover
- 25. Living environment Species abundance and habitat RCP 8.5 Environmental impacts
- 26. Winter tourismEffects on human activities Reduction in snow cover duration in 2050 - RCP 4.5 South-facing slopes (la Flégère) North-facing slopes (les Grands Montets)
- 27. Winter tourismEffects on human activities Reduction in snow cover duration in 2050 - RCP 8.5 South-facing slopes (la Flégère) North-facing slopes (les Grands Montets)
- 28. Winter tourism Snowmaking Effects on human activities • Snowmaking will rapidly become unviable < 2000 m • Starting in 2050, even snowmaking above 2000 m will no longer be reliable Potential snowmaking days in November Nb.ofdaysNb.ofdays
- 29. Summer tourism Arrival of trees & shrubs Effects on human activities © CREA Mont-Blanc; Data sources: CCVMB, IGN, Landsat/USGS
- 30. Summer tourism Cooling off up high Effects on human activities
- 31. Summer tourism Making the most of Rocktober Effects on human activities
- 32. Agriculture Additional generations of pathogens © ARPA VdA - CH2018 Effects on human activities • Emergence of a 3rd or 4th generation of certain insect pathogens (codling moth, tomato leafminer…) • Possible additional generation(s) for ‘natural’ parasites such as the spruce bark beetle Nb. of Tuta absoluta generations (valley floor)
- 33. Agriculture Sirah and Merlot at 800 m Effects on human activities • Possibility of growing Syrah grapes in Servoz by 2080 ! (RCP 8.5) • Possiblity of moving agricultural activities to higher elevations (summer grazing for example)
- 34. Agriculture Hot cows Effects on human activities • Heat waves stress cattle and reduce milk/cheese production • Transition from 1 day a summer to 5-10 days of heat stress in 2035
- 35. Natural hasards Destablization of high-mountain infrastructure (Duvillard & Ravanel) Effects on human activities • Uncertain viability of buildings located in permafrost zones in the years ahead • Lateral moraines are also highly unstable post- glacier retreat and destabilize infrastructure
- 36. Natural hasards Summer alpinism Rock fall au Trident du Tacul, Sept. 2018 Photo : Pierre Gourdin Effects on human activities • Modification of 90% of the routes in the 100 Plus belles courses (G. Rébuffat) caused by warming and associated geomorphic processes • Increasingly tricky approaches on glaciers, and increased risk of rock fall on routes
- 37. Natural hasards Avalanches et serac fall Effects on human activities • Risk of serac fall due to the transition from cold -> to temperate glacier • Increasing number of wet snow avalanches in the high mountains • Potential decrease in avalanche risk on mid- mountain slopes
- 38. Natural hasards Flood risk © ARPA VdA Effects on human activities • 2-3 days more of flood alert in 2050 (flow > 40 m³ / s, Doire de Vény, IT) • As new lakes form in the wake of glacier retreat, there is a risk of sudden flooding
- 39. Conclusion Climate change is already well underway in the EMB • Need to redefine our perception and representation of the Alps • The Mont-Blanc massif will increasingly be a refuge • Future of mountain flora and fauna? • Possibility to combine adaptation with mitigation? • Emergence of opportunities alongside challenges ?
- 40. The Mer de Glace landscape in 2015 Data sources: IGE Grenoble, Landsat/USGS Claire Giordano
- 41. Data sources: IGE Grenoble, Landsat/USGS Claire Giordano The Mer de Glace landscape in 2050