Climate change is having significant impacts on the ski industry. Studies show that rising temperatures will lead to reductions in snowpack, shorter ski seasons, and fewer viable ski resorts. Many resorts may lose viability with only 1-2°C of warming due to less snowfall, shorter seasons, and higher snowlines. The viability of resorts depends on their altitude, with higher altitude resorts faring better. The ski industry will need to rely more heavily on snowmaking to offset declining natural snow, but costs will increase substantially. Adaptation is difficult and the future of the ski industry is uncertain under continued climate change.

1. IMPACTS OF
CLIMATE CHANGE
ON SKI INDUSTRY
LUNGILE ROSEMARY KHUMALO - 20926250

2. INTRODUCTION
2

3. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
 Changes in snow and ice.
 Decrease in snow thickness and duration.
 Years of unrivalled reduced snowfall.
 Less snowfall and snow accumulation.
 Low altitude - Changes in snowpack.
 Mountain areas – decrease in the quantity of
accumulated snow.
 Shortening of snow cover period.
 Decreased and earlier spring freshet.
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4.  Strong growth in mountain tourism.
 Economically essential for local
communities.
 Economy is dependent on environmental
conditions and factors affecting them.
 Ski industry = most economic and
demographic influence in mountain
regions.
 Direct and indirect revenues.
4

5. STAKEHOLDERS
IN SKI AREAS
PRIVATE &
PUBLIC
COMPANIES
LAND
MANAGERS
POLICY MAKERS
AND PUBLIC
ADMINISTRATION
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6.  High vulnerability of ski industry to climate change.
 Complex and conflicting issues for planning the future resource of
mountain areas.
PROMOTING AND SUPPORTING AN ACTIVITY THAT BRINGS APPARENT
REVENUES AND OPPORTUNITIES
VS
THE RISK TO INVEST RESOURCES IN A BUSINESS WITH AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE
AND HIGH ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
EVALUATION AND QUANTIFICATION OF THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE
CHANGE IN THE SKI INDUSTRY
 Provides essential Knowledge.
 Development of adaptation or mitigation measures.
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7. STUDY LOCATIONS
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8. EUROPE
SWITZERLAND ALPS ‘SWISS ALPS’
KOENIG AND ABEGG – 1997 – INVESTIGATED WINTER TOURISM IN THE SWISS ALPS
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9.  Highlighted a strong dependence of winter tourism on climate conditions
and availability of snow.
 Assessed what consequences a rise on temperature on future availability
of snow conditions.
Approximate temperature rise of 0.3 ° C :
 300m rise in altitude of permanent snow in the Central Alps.
 500m rise in the Pre-Alpine region.
 1 month delay in first snowfall of the season.
 Availability of snow only reliable in ski resorts above 1200m – 85% resorts in the Swiss
Alps.
Approximate temperature rise of +2 ° C:
 Snowline will move up to 1500m.
 63% ski slopes will be feasible.
 Ski at higher altitudes will have good skiing conditions – Grisons Canton and Valais.
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10. ELSASSER AND BURKI – 2002
 Indicated upward shift in the snowline to 1800m.
 44% of the ski resorts runs.
 2% lifts will be operable.
 Greater concentration of tourists in higher altitude areas.
 Environmental problems.
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11. ABEGG et al. – 2007
 Confirmed the previous prognosis.
 1, 2 & 4°C warming in the Swiss Alps Indicates:
 159/164 Swiss Ski resorts were viable.
 Drop to : 1°C – 142, 2°C – 129 and 4°C – 78.
BENISTON et al. – 2003 – SIMULATED CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS FROM
REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL – 2071 – 2100
Results suggested:
90% snow reduction – 1000m.
40 – 60% snow reduction – 2000m.
30 – 40% snow reduction – 3000m.
1°C average rise = 15 – 20 days of snow reduction in the Alps.
4°C average rise = 50 – 60 days at altitudes 2000 – 2500m.
1000m = 110 – 130 days.
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12. ITALIAN ALPS 12

13. MERCALLI et al. 2006/2007
Temperature rise:
 2°C - snowline rise by 300m.
 4°C - snowline rise by 600m.
 1°C - may cause serious loss of snow cover at altitudes lower than
1400m and 35% reduction in annual duration of snow.
 Higher Altitudes - 1°C rise - 15% loss on average at approximately
1850m and 12% at 2300m.
 Rise of 1°C - 131/167 resorts will remain viable = 1650m.
 Rise of 2°C – 88 resorts will remain viable = 1800.
 Rise of 4°C – 30 resorts will remain viable = 2100.
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14. AUSTRIA 14

15. BREILING AND CHARAMZA – 1999 – DEVELOPED A STATISTICAL
MODEL INCLUDING DATA ON TEMPERATURE, PRECIPITATION
AND SNOW COVER
Concluded that:
2°C – 2000m Altitude – No change in precipitation.
 No major consequences for ski resorts.
0.8°C – middle altitude.
 Serious consequences for ski resorts.
 Importance of snowmaking.
2°C rise – approximately 33% reduction of the potential
number of days for snowmaking.
 Decline in dependency on natural snow conditions.
 Techniques – Substantial increase in cost and investments.
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16. STEIGER AND ABEGG – 2013 – ANALYSED HOW CLIMATE CHANGE MIGHT
AFFECT WINTER TOURISM IN AUSTRIA
THE STUDY WAS MAINLY BASED THREE CRITERIA
1. The 100 day rule.
2. The ski season beginning on December 8.
3. The availability of sufficient snow during the Christmas holidays.
RESULTS SHOWS:
 228 ski areas – 42% met the criteria – 1961-1990.
 Based on the 100 day rule: Reduction on availability of snow areas and
snowmaking;
 1°C - 81
 2°C - 57
 4°C - 18
 +2°C – 50% of ski areas will have to increase snowmaking by 100 –
199%.
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17. SWEDEN 17

18. MOEN AND FREDMAN – 2007
 1961 – 1990 – Temperature increase of 2°C – Precipitation
remained stable, but the snow cover decreased by 8 cm depth.
 5 days reduction in potential ski season.
DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE REGION OF SALEN (SOUTHWEST SWEDEN)
 Regional Climate Change Scenarios:
 A2 (+5°C and 45% precipitation).
 B2 (+2.5°C and 15% precipitation).
 A2: 66% Snowfall reduction and 162 – 96 days reduction.
 B2: 44% snowfall reduction and 162 – 64 days reduction.
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19. PYRENEES - FRANCE AND SPAIN
19

20. LOPEZ-MORENO et al. – 2009
A2 (2.4°C – 4.1°C, mean change of 3.1°C)
 2070 – 2100 – 78% decrease in the duration of snow cover at 1500m.
 70% reduction in snow volume at 1500m.
B2 (0.9°C – 2.3°C, mean change of 1.3°C)
 2070 – 2100 – 20% decrease in the duration of snow cover at 3000m.
 11% reduction in snow volume at 3000m.
AROGONESE PYRENEES (SPAIN)
 A2 – 2040 – Resorts will continue to be viable.
 Low altitude areas will require artificial snowmaking.
 Higher altitudes – 1750- 1800m snow viability is guaranteed.
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21. ANDORRA
21

22. PONS-PONS et al. – 2012 - USED SNOW COVER CHANGE
SCENARIOS DEVELOPED BY LOPEZ-MORENO ET AL. TO SIMULATE
SKIABILITY AT THREE RESORTS
+2° & 4°C AND ARTIFICIAL SNOW
ARCALIS
 27% season reduction.
PAL-ARINSAL
 30% reduction in duration of ski season.
 Snow making length reduction by 25%.
 95% season reduction.
GRAND-VALIRA
 17% season reduction.
22

23. NORTH AMERICA
CANADA
23

24. LAMOTHE AND PERIARD 1988
LIPSKI AND McBOYLE 1991
McBOYLE AND WALL 1987
 Projected reduction of 50% in skiable days.
QUEBEC
24

25. USE OF SNOWMAKING HAS CONSIDERABLY REDUCED THE
VULNERABILITY OF THESE AREAS TO CLIMATE CHANGE
2020
 Lower temperatures - 8% reduction of snow.
 Higher temperatures - 29% reduction of snow.
 0-2% decline in the length of ski season.
 Lower temperatures - 15% artificial snowmaking required.
 Higher temperatures – 43% artificial snowmaking required.
2050
 Lower temperatures - 26% reduction of snow.
 Higher temperatures – 75% reduction of snow.
 4 – 7% decline in the length of ski season.
 Lower temperatures - 30% artificial snowmaking required.
 Higher temperatures – 131% artificial snowmaking required.
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26. ONTARIO – HORSESHOES SKI RESORT
Viable under warmer climates – Increase in snowmaking
capabilities.
Current: 2020 – 0-6% decrease, 2050 – 7-32% decrease and
2080 – 11-50% decrease.
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27. NORTHEASTERN US
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28. DAWSON et al. 2009 – USED ANALOG APPROACH TO ANALYSE
THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON DURATION AND
PERMANENCE OF THE SNOWFALL AND EFFECT ON TOURISTS
DEMAND – 2040 – 2069
A1 – 2001 – 2002 (+4.4°C)
B1 – 1998 – 1999 (+2.7°C)
 40% decrease in natural snow – 5 (B1) – 15 (A1) days
season reduction.
 Tourists demand dropped by 11.6% (A1) and 10.8% (B1).
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29. DAWSON AND SCOTT – 2013 – SAME TEMPERATURE SCENARIOR
A1 AND B1 – 103 SKI RESORTS
2010 – 2039
 B1 – 55% and A1 – 54% viable ski resorts under 100-day rule.
 B1 – 44% and A1 – 44% economically operable during Christmas and new
year.
 B1 – 42% and A1 – 41% operable considering the 100-day rule.
2040 – 2069
 B1 – 54% and A1 – 40% viable ski resorts under 100-day rule.
 B1 – 35% and A1 – 26% economically operable during Christmas and new
year.
 B1 – 41% and A1 – 34% operable considering the 100-day rule.
2070 - 2099
 B1 – 45% and A1 – 29% viable ski resorts under 100-day rule.
 B1 – 33% and A1 – 7% economically operable during Christmas and new
year.
 B1 – 35% and A1 – 30% operable considering the 100-day rule.
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30. ASIA
TURKEY
DEMIROGLU – 2000 – ANALYSED 12 OF THE LARGEST SKI AREAS IN TURKEY
CLIMATE CHANGE
SCENARIOS:
2025 - +1°C
6 Resorts operable
2050 - 2°C
2 Resorts operable
2100 - 4°C
0 Resorts operable
Turkey ski resorts
http://www.tourismupdates.c
om
30

31. FUKUSHIMA et al. – 2002 – DEVELOPED A STATISTICAL MODEL OF
SNOW CONDITIONS FOR JAPAN, TO QUANTIFY HOW FUTURE CLIMATE
CHANGE MIGHT AFFECT TOURISTS DEMAND IN THE PRINCIPAL SKI
AREAS.
They concluded:
 3°C & no change in precipitation = 30% reduction of skiers visiting
ski areas.
 Exceptions in Hokkaido region in the North and 50% decrease in
the South.
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32. HEO AND LEE – 2008 - YONGPYONG RESORT IN SOUTH KOREA
Reported:
 Since 1990 the snow cover depth and snowfall decreased by 16% and 4%.
 2011 – 2090 – ski length will be reduced from 120 – 105 days.
 2010 – 2030 – 84 days.
 2030 – 2060 – 61 days.
 2010 – 2090 – ski length decline by 42%.
 Artificial snowmaking is essential for resorts in Korea e.g Yongpyong.
 -3°C, Humidity 60-80% - ideal atmospheric conditions for snow making.
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33. OCEANIA
AUSTRALIAN ALPS
KOENIG – 1998 – ANALYSED THE IMPACTS OF DIFFERENT REGIONAL CLIMATE
SCENARIOS ON THE AUSTRALIAN ALPS.
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34.  +0.3°C , 60-Day rule and 9 Resorts analysed - 1 resort will not
be viable in 2030.
 +1.3°C – skiing will only be possible at 1 resort.
 2070 (+0.6°C) – 6 ski resorts will exists.
 +3.4°C – none of the resorts will remain viable.
POCKERING AND BUCKLEY – 2012 – ANALYSED A NUMBER OF DAYS WITH AT LEAST
1CM SNOW COVER AT 20 LOCATIONS WITHIN THE SKI RESORTS
 2020 (+1°C) – 7 (35%), expected to maintain 1cm snow cover for 70 days.
 2 to maintain the cover for 60 – 70 days.
 11 will maintain the cover for 60 days.
 1°C – Many resorts will not be viable with only natural snow conditions.
 Dependence on artificial snow will increase continuously.
 Many resorts will not afford the expenses or have access to water that is
required.
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35. HENDRIKX et al. – 2013 – INVOLVED A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS
OF FUTURE IMPACTS IN AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND USING
THE SAME METHOD OF ANALYSIS
AUSTRALIA
 At lowest elevation the number
of snow depths equal to or
greater than 30cm will be
reduced from 124 to 85 days
by 2040.
 21 days by 2090.
NEW ZEALAND
 At lowest elevation the number
of snow depths equal to or
greater than 30cm will be
reduced from 125 to 111 days
by 2040.
 68 days by 2090.
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36. OVERALL ASSESSMENT AND
CONCLUSIONS
36

37.  Climate change scenarios and fixed thresholds.
 Difficult to compare the results.
 Few studies have been appropriate for direct comparison.
REGULAR CONSIDERATION INDICATORS
 Changes in the length of the ski season.
 Reduction in number of skiers.
 Other studies highlighted how sensitive the ski industry is to
increasing temperatures.
 Large variability and skiability to similar warming rates.
37

38.  The evolution of future precipitation.
 The projections for future varies greatly.
Assessment of the future of ski industry should include:
 The effects of changing precipitation.
 Warming effects.
Most studies reviewed assessed the viability of ski resorts under:
 Changing climate based on simulated snowpack.
 Natural conditions.
 Used established criteria.
 30cm threshold.
 100 – day minimum annual operation.
 75% probability of being open during Christmas holidays.
 Being operational on 8 December and New year.
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39. FACTORS TO CONSIDER:
1. Specific physical and technical characteristics of the resorts.
2. Economic framework.
3. Greater interaction between scientists and managers of ski resorts.
SNOWMAKING
Snowmaking Limitations:
 Lower altitudes – Snow guns needed.
 More consumption of water and energy.
 Higher costs.
 Conflicts among mountain communities and various agricultural, urban
residential and power generation.
 Quality.
No studies to date have considered physical transformations of the
snowpack in developing future scenarios of ski conditions
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40. CLIMATE CHANGE – MAJOR THREAT TO TOURISM
Mountain Areas - Valuable landscapes and offer various attractions
to tourists.
BLACK FOREST 2008/9 WINTER SEASON
40

41. COMPLIMENTARY ACTIVITIES
SNOWMOBILING
41

42. DOG SLEIGHING 42

43. ICE FISHING
43

44. YEAR ROUND TOURISM
HIKING
44

45. KAYAKING
45

46. CANYONING
46

47. REFERENCES
Gilaberte-Burdalo et al. 2014. Impacts of climate change on ski industry, Environmental
science and policy (Online), 44 : 51-6. Available: http://www.sciencedirect.com/
(Accessed 25 April 2015).
Soldeu – Andorra (Online), 2015. Available: http://www.image.essentialtravel.co.uk/
(Accessed 20 May 2015).
Horseshoe ski resort (Online), 2015. Available: http://www.img1.findthebest.com/
(Accessed 20 May 2015).
Marias ski resort (Online), 2015. Available: http://www.destination360.com/ (Accessed 20
May 2015).
St Anton ski resort (Online), 2015. Available: http://www.static.guim.co.uk/ (Accessed 20
May 2015).
Quebec (Online), 2015. Available: http://www.bonjourquebec.com/ (Accessed 20 May
2015).
Mount Snow (Online), 2015. Available: http://www.firsttrackonline.com/ (Accessed 20
May 2015).
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