Schedule and risk integrated project management
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This document summarizes the results of a study on the relationships between project duration and risk, and activity duration and risk within a project. The study found that increasing an activity's duration can increase the project's duration if the activity reaches a certain criticality level, and can also increase the project's risk if the activity reaches a certain cruciality level. Similarly, increasing an activity's risk can slightly increase the project's risk if the activity is crucial. The path forward includes further exploring probability distributions, network influences, simultaneous variation of duration and risk, and extending the study to cost factors.
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1 paluno, University of Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany, f.m.feit@gmail.com
2 paluno, University of Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany, andreas.metzger@paluno.uni-due.de
3 paluno, University of Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany, klaus.pohl@paluno.uni-due.de
2 Felix Feit, Andreas Metzger, Klaus Pohl
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-13,36 -12,57 -11,73 -10,74 28
-9,95 29
-8,91 30
-7,99 31
-6,98 32
-5,95 33
-4,92 34
-3,93 35
-2,98
LEFT
DOWN -12,99 -13,00 -11,98 -10,95
-13,95 -112,18 -112,80 -111,49 -9,99
-112,13 -8,89
-112,68 -7,97
-112,91 - -6,98
112,42 - -5,94
111,81 - -4,81
110,62 - -3,94
112,86 -2,98
-1,00
Abb. 1: Illustration of how learned knowledge is represented for Cliff Walk example from [SB18].
learning research. We present a proof-of-concept implementation of XRL-DINE, as well as qualitative and quantitative results that demonstrate the usefulness of XRL-DINE.
Project Risk Analysis in Aerospace Industry
Overview of schedule and cost risk analysis methodology for aerospace industry.
For more information how to perform schedule risk analysis using RiskyProject software please visit Intaver Institute web site: http://www.intaver.com.
About Intaver Institute.
Intaver Institute Inc. develops project risk management and project risk analysis software. Intaver's flagship product is RiskyProject: project risk management software. RiskyProject integrates with Microsoft Project, Oracle Primavera, other project management software or can run standalone. RiskyProject comes in three configurations: RiskyProject Lite, RiskyProject Professional, and RiskyProject Enterprise.
Project management
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Slides chapters 24-25
The document discusses project scheduling and tracking in software engineering. It provides reasons why projects may be late, such as unrealistic deadlines or changing requirements. It discusses principles for effective scheduling like compartmentalization of tasks and defining responsibilities. Metrics like earned value analysis are presented to quantitatively track project progress versus what was planned. Risk management techniques like proactive risk analysis are outlined to improve project success.
Project Controls Expo, 18th Nov 2014 - "Schedule Risk Analysis for Complex Pr...
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Schedule Risk Analysis is used on a wide range of projects as an established technique for identifying the uncertainties that threaten (or enhance) project success. However, applying the technique effectively to produce valid results on large and complex projects poses more of a challenge. This presentation summarises an approach to conducting schedule risk modelling for complex, long-term engineering projects, avoiding common pitfalls, and ensuring that outputs can be used to actively influence the project’s outcome.SE chapters 24-25
This document discusses risks that can lead to software project delays or failures. It identifies several categories of risk, including risks due to product size, business impact, customers, process maturity, technology, staff size and experience. It also discusses approaches for identifying, assessing, prioritizing and mitigating risks, including building a risk table to estimate probability and impact of each risk. Project managers are advised to take a proactive approach to risk management to avoid reactive crisis management when risks occur.
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This document provides an overview of project cost and schedule risk analysis. It discusses key terms like risk, uncertainty, and probability. It outlines the ISO 31000 risk management process, including steps like risk identification, analysis, evaluation, and treatment. Monte Carlo simulation is presented as a technique for modeling project schedule and cost uncertainty based on risk. The document emphasizes establishing the context, identifying risks and impacts, and using a risk matrix to evaluate and prioritize risks in order to inform project planning and management.
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Schedule and risk integrated project management
- 1. Master Thesis Schedule and Risk Integrated Project Management Roberto Hernantes Cantero September 2011
- 2. Objective To study the relationships that occur between duration and risk of the project and duration and risk of the activities within it
- 4. 1. Current situation 52% projects are categorical failures Only 16% projects finish sucessfully 1 2 3 4
- 5. 2. Work Risk σ Duration µ 4 3 1 2 Herroelen Network Monte Carlo Simulation
- 6. 2. Work Criticity Cruciality Duration ( µ ) Risk ( σ ) Categorization of activities 4 3 1 2
- 7. 2. Work Risk Variation [0’2,0’3,0’4,0’5,0’6,0’7,0’8] [0’25,0’5,0’75,1,1’25,1’5,1’75] [0’5,1,1’5,2,2’5,3,3’5] σ ϵ Duration Variation µ ϵ [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10] 4 3 1 2
- 8. 3. Results Duration ( µ) variation – Activity 1 4 2 1 3
- 9. 3. Results 4 2 1 3 Duration ( µ) variation – Activity 2
- 10. 3. Results Duration ( µ) variation 4 2 1 3 Changing µ i affects µ p if actv. i reaches certain criticity level σ p if actv. i reaches certain cruciality level Nonlinear relationship ↑ µ i => ↑ µ p (viceversa aswell) ↑ µ i => Cahnges σ p
- 11. 3. Results Risk ( σ ) variation – Activity 3 4 2 1 3
- 12. 3. Results 4 2 1 3 Risk ( σ ) variation – Activity 7
- 13. 3. Results Risk ( σ ) variation 4 2 1 3 Lower impact on the project than the variation in the duration Changing σ i slightly affects µ p because it does not impact criticity ↑ σ i => ↑ σ p (viceversa aswell) provided actv. i reaches certain cruciality level Nonlinear relationship
- 14. 3. Results Categorization of activities – Activity 7 Variation of risk ( σ ) Variation of duration ( µ) 4 2 1 3
- 15. 4. Path forward Probability Distributions Influence of network Extension to costs field Studying not solved issues Simultaneous variation of variables 2 1 3 4