The document discusses scenario planning and its use in strategic planning. It describes scenario planning as a process used to develop narratives of possible futures based on uncertainties around key drivers of change. The document outlines the scenario planning process, which includes identifying a focal question, scanning the environment, selecting and ranking drivers of change, building a scenario matrix, developing narratives for scenarios, presenting the scenarios, and considering strategic implications. It provides guidelines for effective scenario planning, such as taking an outside-in perspective and considering multiple views.
A white paper from The Inovo Group - Opportunities are central to innovation. Read Inovo's latest white paper to learn more or visit theinovogroup.com.
Hard work & Low cost do not help by themselves any more. Intellectual arbitrage is here to stay. Innovation is the way to stay ahead of the pack. Be the game changer. Let our C3 methodology (part of triniti Innovation Framework) help you break out of idea scarcity and convert your ideas into profitable, implementable solutions.
Corporate Innovation : developing a lean & curious culture : Michel Duchateau...Michel Duchateau
Corporate Innovation : developing a lean & curious culture : Michel Duchateau CreaDelta - Tech Startup Day 2015 - startups.be
How to use hackathons to develop corporate innovation and intrapreneruship ?
What Coca-Cola and Groupe Auchan have learned with hackathons ?
What lean aspects can we focus in corporate innovation ?
When to develop a lean culture ?
What are the differences with a non lean culture ?
What are the trends of 2015 in corporate innovation in a nutshell ?
A white paper from The Inovo Group - Opportunities are central to innovation. Read Inovo's latest white paper to learn more or visit theinovogroup.com.
Hard work & Low cost do not help by themselves any more. Intellectual arbitrage is here to stay. Innovation is the way to stay ahead of the pack. Be the game changer. Let our C3 methodology (part of triniti Innovation Framework) help you break out of idea scarcity and convert your ideas into profitable, implementable solutions.
Corporate Innovation : developing a lean & curious culture : Michel Duchateau...Michel Duchateau
Corporate Innovation : developing a lean & curious culture : Michel Duchateau CreaDelta - Tech Startup Day 2015 - startups.be
How to use hackathons to develop corporate innovation and intrapreneruship ?
What Coca-Cola and Groupe Auchan have learned with hackathons ?
What lean aspects can we focus in corporate innovation ?
When to develop a lean culture ?
What are the differences with a non lean culture ?
What are the trends of 2015 in corporate innovation in a nutshell ?
As I have recently included some new content in my presentations and sessions, I would like to share these insights with you in the form of an updated presentation deck. Here, I focus on the the following views and messages:
- A general state of innovation and what you need to know about it these days
- What open innovation is and how it is relevant in the context of big companies and SME´s and startups
- What it takes to be successful with innovation today as an individual and as a team
When I give talks and sessions, I draw upon a comprehensive set of content which you can look further at www.innovationupgrade.com.
Innovation: End to End -- A Corporate Innovation ProcessIsrael Vicars
The presentation describes a robust process of supporting innovation within a large corporation.
The sidebar "slide-amation" makes it one of my favorite presentations in terms of design. Topic too :)
How To Implement Open Innovation: OI Chess ParadigmRob Veldt
Describes the OI Chess Paradigm. A toolbox which provides a structured approach to transform organizations from closed to open, using leadership styles and organizational identity, with attention to people, operations, policy and culture.
Open Innovation: New Opportunities, New Challenges
Many companies are moving beyond the basics of open innovation making this new paradigm of innovation even more complex, challenging – and rewarding. This is the outset for this session with Stefan Lindegaard in which we get into these topics:
• the essentials: What open innovation is and why it matters?
• an overview of the mindset and skills needed to succeed with open innovation
• insights from companies on the leading edge of open innovation
Procter & Gamble open innovation approach Ideon Open
Presented at the Hands On Open Innovation workshops, this presentation explains why such giant as P&G engages in open innovation. P&G shares its approach to open innovation called Connect & Develop and reveals lessons the company has learned from applying open innovation practices.
More info about the event at http://www.ideonopen.com/events
2014.05.08 MC1 From Open Innovation to Innovation EcosystemsNUI Galway
Professor Wim Vanhaverbeke, University of Hasselt, Belgium, presented this InterTradeIreland Innovation master class entitled "From Open Innovation to Innovation Ecosystems" at the Whitaker Institute on 8th May 2014
7 Steps for Open Innovation by @Lindegaard: Grading Your Company’s Open Innov...Stefan Lindegaard
Here you can check out my PowerPoint deck for my new concept:
7 Steps for Open Innovation: Grading Your Company’s Open Innovation Capabilities
The premise is that if your company is not already fully engaged with open innovation efforts, it is way behind. This is evident by looking at the number of companies around the globe that today embrace the use of external partners and input into their innovation efforts.
But even though companies continuously launch new initiatives designed to help them leverage the power of outside knowledge and resources to drive innovation forward, there is a sense within these companies that they can do better and take this new innovation paradigm to an even higher level.
They are also eager to get external perspective to make sure they are maximizing results by using best practices in all aspects of their open innovation efforts.
To help companies with this evaluation, I have developed a seven-step assessment tool that helps them evaluate these key areas:
1. Common Language and Understanding, Motivation, Mandate and Strategic Purpose
2. Assets and Needs
3. Value Pools and Channels
4. Internal Readiness
5. External Readiness
6. New Skills and Mindset
7. Communications Strategy
This assessment tool will help companies identify where they may be falling short in any of these key areas as well as provide ideas and insights on how to make the necessary improvements that will give more power to their open innovation efforts.
This is still work in progress, but you can get an idea of what this is about by checking out my presentation here
It would be great to hear your early feedback on the content itself as well as your thoughts on what I should do with the concept itself. Maybe it would be more valuable for the open innovation community as some kind of an open source project? What do you think?
Open Innovation Process and Open Closed Innovation Sandra Cecet
Research project by Sandra Cecet & Sanya Khanna. We are interested in the Open Innovation process, when, why and how is happens. As well, is it indeed such an open paradigm as a literature suggests.
Key Words: Open Innovation, Closed Innovation, Open-Closed Innovation, Multinational Companies, New Product Development, Radical Innovation, Mindset, Collaboration.
What is the Benefit of an Open Innovation Process?Jose Briones
Open Innovation is now a very fashionable term and many companies are rushing to implement an open innovation process without fully understanding its value nor how it fits within their existing product development process. In this Chapter of the “Beyond Stage Gate” series we will discuss the different definitions of Open Innovation, where does it fit in the development cycle, software tools available and a case study. We will show how Smarty Ears, a developer of iPad apps for Speech Therapy and Communication, has used open innovation to greatly increase the number of ideas to market, as well as accelerate the product development cycle.
How can big and small companies innovate better together? That is the focus of my upcoming book and this presentation. In my talk, I get into topics such as:
- what open innovation is
- the differences between big and small companies
- why big companies need small companies
- why things go wrong
-
As I have recently included some new content in my presentations and sessions, I would like to share these insights with you in the form of an updated presentation deck. Here, I focus on the the following views and messages:
- A general state of innovation and what you need to know about it these days
- What open innovation is and how it is relevant in the context of big companies and SME´s and startups
- What it takes to be successful with innovation today as an individual and as a team
When I give talks and sessions, I draw upon a comprehensive set of content which you can look further at www.innovationupgrade.com.
Innovation: End to End -- A Corporate Innovation ProcessIsrael Vicars
The presentation describes a robust process of supporting innovation within a large corporation.
The sidebar "slide-amation" makes it one of my favorite presentations in terms of design. Topic too :)
How To Implement Open Innovation: OI Chess ParadigmRob Veldt
Describes the OI Chess Paradigm. A toolbox which provides a structured approach to transform organizations from closed to open, using leadership styles and organizational identity, with attention to people, operations, policy and culture.
Open Innovation: New Opportunities, New Challenges
Many companies are moving beyond the basics of open innovation making this new paradigm of innovation even more complex, challenging – and rewarding. This is the outset for this session with Stefan Lindegaard in which we get into these topics:
• the essentials: What open innovation is and why it matters?
• an overview of the mindset and skills needed to succeed with open innovation
• insights from companies on the leading edge of open innovation
Procter & Gamble open innovation approach Ideon Open
Presented at the Hands On Open Innovation workshops, this presentation explains why such giant as P&G engages in open innovation. P&G shares its approach to open innovation called Connect & Develop and reveals lessons the company has learned from applying open innovation practices.
More info about the event at http://www.ideonopen.com/events
2014.05.08 MC1 From Open Innovation to Innovation EcosystemsNUI Galway
Professor Wim Vanhaverbeke, University of Hasselt, Belgium, presented this InterTradeIreland Innovation master class entitled "From Open Innovation to Innovation Ecosystems" at the Whitaker Institute on 8th May 2014
7 Steps for Open Innovation by @Lindegaard: Grading Your Company’s Open Innov...Stefan Lindegaard
Here you can check out my PowerPoint deck for my new concept:
7 Steps for Open Innovation: Grading Your Company’s Open Innovation Capabilities
The premise is that if your company is not already fully engaged with open innovation efforts, it is way behind. This is evident by looking at the number of companies around the globe that today embrace the use of external partners and input into their innovation efforts.
But even though companies continuously launch new initiatives designed to help them leverage the power of outside knowledge and resources to drive innovation forward, there is a sense within these companies that they can do better and take this new innovation paradigm to an even higher level.
They are also eager to get external perspective to make sure they are maximizing results by using best practices in all aspects of their open innovation efforts.
To help companies with this evaluation, I have developed a seven-step assessment tool that helps them evaluate these key areas:
1. Common Language and Understanding, Motivation, Mandate and Strategic Purpose
2. Assets and Needs
3. Value Pools and Channels
4. Internal Readiness
5. External Readiness
6. New Skills and Mindset
7. Communications Strategy
This assessment tool will help companies identify where they may be falling short in any of these key areas as well as provide ideas and insights on how to make the necessary improvements that will give more power to their open innovation efforts.
This is still work in progress, but you can get an idea of what this is about by checking out my presentation here
It would be great to hear your early feedback on the content itself as well as your thoughts on what I should do with the concept itself. Maybe it would be more valuable for the open innovation community as some kind of an open source project? What do you think?
Open Innovation Process and Open Closed Innovation Sandra Cecet
Research project by Sandra Cecet & Sanya Khanna. We are interested in the Open Innovation process, when, why and how is happens. As well, is it indeed such an open paradigm as a literature suggests.
Key Words: Open Innovation, Closed Innovation, Open-Closed Innovation, Multinational Companies, New Product Development, Radical Innovation, Mindset, Collaboration.
What is the Benefit of an Open Innovation Process?Jose Briones
Open Innovation is now a very fashionable term and many companies are rushing to implement an open innovation process without fully understanding its value nor how it fits within their existing product development process. In this Chapter of the “Beyond Stage Gate” series we will discuss the different definitions of Open Innovation, where does it fit in the development cycle, software tools available and a case study. We will show how Smarty Ears, a developer of iPad apps for Speech Therapy and Communication, has used open innovation to greatly increase the number of ideas to market, as well as accelerate the product development cycle.
How can big and small companies innovate better together? That is the focus of my upcoming book and this presentation. In my talk, I get into topics such as:
- what open innovation is
- the differences between big and small companies
- why big companies need small companies
- why things go wrong
-
In this highly informative session, Tony will leverage PMI research findings to explore the primary issues and opportunities in innovation project management. Innovation is a critical element in helping product-oriented companies achieve their market objectives and projects in these environments are development are complex, long, resource-intensive, and risky. Therefore, it is important to detect problems early to avoid waste of time and resources. Because that is often easier said than done, Tony will couple PMI’s research with observations from his company’s client interactions in the field to help session attendees fully comprehend each of the top five innovation project management issues.
By the end of the presentation, participants will have a very clear understanding of the specific challenges that plague low-performing organizations and the best practice activities that characterize their high-performing counterparts. The costs and benefits of employing these best practices in organizations where they do not yet exist will also be provided, as will be lessons learned from performance improvement efforts in innovation environments. If you want to understand how to assist an organization with improving time-to-market success rates, increase the value of product development efforts, and maximize opportunity in the world of innovation, this session is for you.
Presentation of the manuscript Mejia, J.R., Hultink, E.J., Pasman, G., Stappers, P.J. (2016). Concept Cars as a design-led futures technique. Proceedings of the 23rd Innovation and product development management conference, Glasgow.
Delivering Business Value By Applying Agile Principles To Business Continuity...Ken Collins
Agile methodologies clearly work well in the world of software development—the evidence is overwhelming. But how does Agile apply to other disciplines like business continuity management? Can the Agile philosophy help mitigate power disruptions and improve pandemic planning?
Mr. Collins illustrates how one client in the financial services sector successfully applied Agile principles to a recent business continuity initiative.
This session is intended for executives and project managers charged with developing business continuity and IT disaster recovery plans.
Learning Objectives
• Describe typical challenges as businesses try to build competency with business continuity management.
• Learn how Agile principles can shape the vision and scope of business continuity initiatives.
• Understand how Agile can enhance accountability, motivate teams, deliver short-term wins and generate real business value.
Joe O'Mahoney, lecturer in Management Consultancy at Cardiff University, talks to the Institute of Consultancy on how innovation can thrive in consultancy.
Design Thinking and the Business Model Canvas for the Mobile EconomySerge Van Oudenhove
Présentation sur Le Design Thinking and the Business Model Canvas for the Mobile Economyréalisé dans le cadre de StartLab de Solvay Entrepreneurs. http://startlab.solvayentrepreneurs.be/
IAF Asia 2011 Creating a Facilitative EnvironmentMark Pixley
Presentation at the IAF (International Association of Facilitators) Asia Conference in Bangalore in September 2011.
An interactive thinktank to explore how we create space to guide people in thinking together and explore the emerging concept of "future centers"
Similar to Van de toekomst kun je leren - Scenario Thinking (20)
Hoogbegaafden op het werk - Hoe haal je ze eruit en hoe haal je er meer uit? Dialogues House
Slimme mensen zijn in principe hele goede medewerkers. Een bedrijf mag er blij mee zijn als ze zulke mensen in huis heeft. Ze kunnen veel, zijn vaak bevlogen en innovatief. Helaas komen hun kwaliteiten in dienstverband lang niet altijd tot hun recht. Als ze op een verkeerde plek zitten, niet goed worden begeleid of niet kunnen doen waar ze goed in zijn, komt hun innovatieve vermogen er niet uit, neemt hun bevlogenheid af en komen ze soms zelfs in de problemen door spanningsklachten, burn-out of conflicten. Ze gaan dan weg of worden arbeidsongeschikt. De organisatie is ze dan kwijt. Hoe kan dit en hoe kun je dit voorkómen?
Conflict – Ren je weg? Dwing je af? Of grijp je conflict aan als kans voor verandering?
Meningsverschillen en conflicten kunnen de samenhang en effectiviteit van teams behoorlijk aantasten. Het vertrouwen brokkelt af, mensen negeren elkaar of gaan elkaar actief tegenwerken. Maar conflict kan ook de motor, de drijvende kracht, zijn achter belangrijke veranderprocessen. Daarvoor is leiderschap nodig, de bereidheid en vaardigheden om een vastgelopen situatie aan te pakken en deze om te vormen tot een werkbare realiteit.
In de workshop Conflict als Kans gaan we op zoek naar de onderliggende processen die leiden tot conflict in organisaties. We bieden je een aantal essentiële tools voor conflictanalyse en -hantering uit onze benadering van conflicttransformatie. Je past deze kennis direct toe door de reële en actuele problematiek binnen je organisatie in kaart te brengen. Zo gebruiken we onze gezamenlijke denkkracht om nieuwe perspectieven en openingen voor verandering te vinden. Leidende vragen daarbij zijn:
• Welke doelen botsen?
• Welke aannames hebben betrokkenen over elkaar?
• Hoe passen deze binnen de bedrijfscultuur en binnen de samenleving?
• Hoe kan je verschillende doelen overstijgen?
• Hoe beinvloed je het krachtenveld?
De workshop Conflict als Kans is voor iedereen die zich persoonlijk en professioneel wil versterken in leiderschap, conflictvaardigheid en organisatieontwikkeling. De workshop is ook een opstap voor handelen en we vragen aanwezigen om actieve deelname.
Daarnaast heb je als deelnemer de mogelijkheid je aan te melden voor een individuele coaching sessie van een half uur bij een van de trainers. Deze sessies zijn bedoeld om de uitdagingen van de eigen organisatie te verkennen. Geïnteresseerden kunnen zich na afloop van de workshop bij de trainers aanmelden voor een coaching sessie.
Het Conflicttransformatie Netwerk is een samenwerkingsverband van trainers, facilitators, team-coaches en bemiddelaars. Ze werken op diverse plekken in het bedrijfsleven, hoger onderwijs en de publieke sector, maar hebben een gedeelde missie om conflicten om te vormen tot kansen voor positieve verandering.
Het vertrouwen van klanten in bedrijven is in het afgelopen decennium gedaald. Veel bedrijven proberen het tij te keren door de klant ‘centraal’ te zetten. Kan dat wel?
De klant van vandaag wil op maat bediend worden in plaats van onderdeel van de massa zijn. Zijn eigen behoefte als uitgangspunt en zelf invloed uitoefenen op het invullen daarvan. Dat gaat het beste als hij zelf mee kan bouwen aan de oplossing.
Hoe speel je als bank op deze ontwikkeling in? Hoe help je klanten om mee te bouwen aan hun eigen financiële oplossing? Hoe laat je hen voor een deel zelf het werk doen, terwijl je toch je eigen expertise beschikbaar stelt aan de klant?
Evert Jan van Hasselt en Pauline Romanesco, oprichters van Dolfijn Design Lab, laten zien hoe je op een andere manier met klanten om kunt gaan. Aan de orde komen:
• Wat gaat er nu mis?
• Hoe geeft cocreatie hier een antwoord op?
• Hoe helpen asynchrone wederkerigheid en serendipiteit hierbij?
• En wat heeft Project X hiermee te maken
Door betere focus meer resultaat - How to survive corporate lifeDialogues House
Wil jij je focus, zelfvertrouwen en resultaat verbeteren met minder (in)spanning? Reorganisaties en besparingen bij bedrijven leiden ertoe dat op veel afdelingen een hogere werkdruk ontstaat. Er is meer of evenveel werk, maar minder mensen om dit werk te doen!
1. Learning from the Future
Agility and the Next-Generation Organisation
Paul Louis Iske
Professor Open Innovation & Business Venturing, Maastricht University
Chief Dialogues Officer ABN AMRO Bank
2. The world is complex
Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 2
3. The Innovator’s Dilemma
Established technology
Performance
Mainstream customer needs
!CRISIS !
Invasive Technology
Niche customer needs
Clayton Christensen: The Innovator’s Dilemma
Time
Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 3
9. Creativity
Being multiparadigmatic:
flexibly moving between,
combining and integrating
diverse ideas, perspectives,
intelligences and paradigms
PO
=
Provocative Operation
Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 9
12. Paradigm Shifts
A Paradigm shift is a change in the basic
assumptions within the ruling theory of science
Thomas Kuhn (1962)
Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 12
13. key value customer
activities proposition relationships
key customer
partners segments
cost revenue
structure key streams
resources channels
Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 13
13
images by JAM
14. • Client = Employee Co-creation (Key Resources, Channels)
• Competitor = Colleague Open Innovation
• Stranger = Strategic Partner Combinatoric Innovation
• Crisis = Opportunity Restructuring
• Succes = Danger Disruptive Innovation
• Change = Fun Fashion
• Knowledge = Commodity Rising Knowledge Economies
• Valuable = Free Free Content (Revenu Streams)
• Client = Account Manager Qiy (Customer Relationships)
• Authority = Powerless Publishers (Knowledge Resources)
• Best Practices = Worst Practices Land Lines
• Money & Sustainability = Good pair Green Energy
• IP = Outdated Open Source
• Diversity = Asset Ideo
• Certainties = Fake Portfolio Management
• Risk = Attractive Insurances
• Poor = Rich Bottom of Pyramid (Customer Segment, Cost Structure)
• Small = Big Crowfunding (Cost Structure)
• Play = Serious LEGO Serious Play (Customer Segment)
• Failure = Blessing Brilliant Failures
Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 14
15. “WHAT IF?”
AN INTRODUCTION TO
SCENARIO THINKING
Navigating in a complex
world
Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 15
16. What are Scenarios?
• Scenarios are possible views of the world,
described in narrative form (stories) that
provide a context in which managers can
make decisions.
• By seeing a range of possible worlds,
decisions will be better informed, and a
strategy based on this knowledge and
insight will be more likely to succeed.
• Scenarios do not predict the future, but
they do illuminate the drivers of change:
understanding them can only help
managers to take greater control of their
situation.
Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 16
Gill Ringland
17. Scenario Planning - History
• Use in strategic planning has evolved
from military applications
• Theoretical foundations developed in
the 1970s and early 80s – complex
theoretical models seen as expensive
and impractical beyond academic use
• Royal Dutch Shell popularized
scenario planning - petroleum crisis
in 1973.
Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 17
18. Guidelines
• Long View – day-to-day work is
usually driven by near-term
concerns and urgent needs –
scenario thinking requires looking
beyond immediate demands and
peering far enough into the future
to see new possibilities – asking
“what if……”
Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 18
19. Guidelines
• Outside-In Thinking – most think
from the inside, the things they
control, out to the world they would
like to shape. Conversely, thinking
from the outside-in begins with
pondering external changes that
might, over time, profoundly affect
your work.
Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 19
20. Guidelines
• Multiple Perspectives – the introduction
of multiple perspectives, different from
managing multiple stakeholders – is
based on diverse voices that shed new
light on strategic challenges, helps to
better understand one’s own
assumptions, and exposes new ideas
that inform perspective and help to see
the big picture of an issue or idea.
Global Business Network
Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 20
21. Types of Futures
• Possible - “might” happen (future knowledge)
• Plausible – “could” happen (current knowledge)
• Probable - “likely to” happen (current trends)
• Preferable - “want to” happen (value judgements)
Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 21
22. Types of Futures
“Wildcard” Possible
Scenario
Plausible
Probable
Preferable
Today
Time
Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 22
23. The Scenario Planning Process
• Identify the focal question
• Environmental scanning – internal and
external
• Selecting drivers of change and ranking
• Building the scenario matrix
• Developing the scenarios
• Presenting the scenarios
• Considering the strategic implications
Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 23
24. The Scenario Planning Process
• Identify the focal question
• Environmental scanning – internal and
external
• Selecting drivers of change and ranking
• Building the scenario matrix
• Developing the scenarios
• Presenting the scenarios
• Considering the strategic implications
Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 24
25. The Focal Question
• Identify a focal area or issue – such as a decision or question
that is critical to the future of your organisation now.
• Useful foci often emerge from major challenges of today”
• Choose a “horizon year” as the distance into the future that
the scenarios will extend (beyond the typical time scale of
your organisation):
– allows suspension of disbelief (the “that won’t happen”
reaction);
– will you be in the same position you are in today in 10 years?
Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 25
26. The Scenario Planning Process
• Identify the focal question
• Environmental scanning – internal and
external
• Selecting drivers of change and ranking
• Building the scenario matrix
• Developing the scenarios
• Presenting the scenarios
• Considering the strategic implications
Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 26
27. Major Drivers of Change
• Social
• Technological
• Economic
• Environmental
• Political
Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 27
28. The Scenario Planning Process
• Identify the focal question
• Environmental scanning – internal and
external
• Selecting drivers of change and ranking
• Building the scenario matrix
• Developing the scenarios
• Presenting the scenarios
• Considering the strategic implications
Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 33
29. What is “Uncertainty”?
• “Low” means we are reasonably certain
that it will play out or continue in ways
that are fairly well understood
– eg. population
• “High” means that we have no clear idea
which of a number of plausible ways it
might go
– eg. government legislation and policy
• “Mod” means “somewhere in between”
Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 34
30. The Scenario Planning Process
• Identify the focal question
• Environmental scanning – internal and
external
• Selecting drivers of change and ranking
• Building the scenario matrix
• Developing the scenarios
• Presenting the scenarios
• Considering the strategic implications
Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 35
31. Impact-Uncertainty Classification
Critical Important Critical
High Planning Scenario Scenario
I Issues Drivers Drivers
m
p Important Important Important
Mod Planning Planning Scenario
a Issues Issues Drivers
c
Monitor &
t Low
Monitor Monitor
re-assess
Low Moderate High
Uncertainty
Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 36
32. The Scenario Planning Process
• Identify the focal question
• Environmental scanning – internal and
external
• Selecting drivers of change and ranking
• Building the scenario matrix
• Developing the scenarios
• Presenting the scenarios
• Considering the strategic implications
Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 37
33. Developing & Presenting the
Scenarios
• In this step, we ‘flesh out’ each world.
The requirements for this step are to
suspend disbelief, trust your intuition, look
for plausibility, surprises and novel
elements.
• Scenarios must be internally consistent
and plausible – they have to make sense
to the people creating them, and to the
people in the organisation who will read
them.
Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 38
42. Flesh out of a Scenario
Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 47
43. Three hard truths
An era of fundamental transitions:
• Rising global energy demand
• Supply will struggle to keep pace
• Unsustainable CO levels in atmosphere
2
DEMAND SUPPLY CO2
Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 48
44. Shell choose only one uncertainty driver
Critical Uncertainty
Will society act reactive or proactive?
Reactive Proactive
Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 49
45. Two energy scenarios
Scramble
• A more reactive approach:
– Events outpace action
– CO emissions not
2
addressed until major
climate events experienced
at local levels SCRAMBLE
Blueprints
• A proactive approach:
– Action outpacing events
– Global policy framework
and price on CO emissions
2
BLUEPRINTS
Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 50
46. The Scenario Planning Process
• Identify the focal question
• Environmental scanning – internal and
external
• Selecting drivers of change and ranking
• Building the scenario matrix
• Developing the scenarios
• Presenting the scenarios
• Considering the strategic implications
Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 51
47. From Scenarios to Strategy
• The Scenarios are not the only purpose
of the exercise!
– the resulting “freeing up” of thinking while
creating them is!
• Expanding understanding of what options
might be available in the long term:
– shifts frame of reference 10-20 years out.
– examining implications for the services
provided by your organisation in each of the
scenario worlds
– looking to see what your organisation would
need to do to stay viable
Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 52
48. Using Scenario Outputs
• Does your organisation’s existing strategy
stand up to all of the future worlds
presented in these scenarios?
• What rationale would you have for pursuing
various strategic options in each scenario?
What can you influence?
• What early indicators will we monitor?
• After considering the strategic implications
of the scenarios, what actions might we
recommend?
• Deciding on an implementation plan.
Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 53
49. Manifest Next Generation Bank: inspiratie tot nadenken
Zorgt voor schaalbare menselijkheid
Eerst vertrouwen én verantwoordelijkheid delen met
klanten en medewerkers, daarna pas vertrouwen en
verantwoordelijkheid oogsten.
Faciliteert een customer-managed relationship
Van een klantgerichte naar een
klantgestuurde organisatie.
Matcht technologische met sociale innovatie
Slimmer gebruik maken van intellectueel kapitaal: uit onderzoek van de Erasmus
Universiteit blijkt dat het succes van innovatie slechts voor 25% wordt bepaald door
investeringen in R&D; voor de overige 75% is innovatie afhankelijk van factoren op het
gebied van mens en organisatie.
Is een ethisch bedrijf
Ze weet dat mensen en organisaties elkaar uitkiezen omdat hun relatie waarde creëert door
aan te sluiten bij wat die mensen zoeken.
Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 54
50. Your turn…
• Identify a key issue for ABN AMRO and the
most important but uncertain drivers of
change.
• Plot them on your impact-uncertainty
matrix.
• Pick two from the upper right hand corner
Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 55
51. Example Building the Scenario Matrix
Choose two drivers that are most
uncertain and most critical in terms of
impact on the chosen ABN AMRO key issue.
Critical Uncertainty 1
Critical Uncertainty 2
Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 56
52. Building the Scenario Matrix
Critical Uncertainty 1
World 2 World 1
Critical
Uncertainty 2
World 3 World 4
Learning from the Future Amsterdam, May 22, 2012 57