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SALES
FORECASTING
BY ANIL KUMAR
2
 It is the expected level of company
sales
 Based on chosen marketing plan
 Assumed environmental conditions
 It is prediction of future sales potential
By Philip Kotler
DEFINITION
3
4
 Period
 Geographical market area
 Availability of Time and Finance
 Single product or full product
line
Step:- 1 – Deciding Basic
Issues
5
Step:- 2 - Identifying Important
Factors
 Level of competition
 Economic conditions
 Marketing strategy
 Promotion budget
 Stage of product life cycle
 Government policies
6
Step:- 3 - Selecting Suitable
Methods
 Nature of product
 Available finance
 Available time
 Experience
 Caliber of sales executive
7
Step:- 4 - Deciding
Length
 Short term:- less than 1 year
 Medium term:- 1 year to 5
years
 Long term:- more than 5 years
8
Step:- 5 – Preliminary Sales
Forecast
 Data collection
 Data analysis
 Experience of sales staff
 Growth trends in sales
9
Step:- 6 – Final Sales
Forecast
 Preliminary sales forecast
are presented before top
management
 After approval of top
management , Preliminary
sales forecast become final
sale forecast
10
Step:- 7 – Making operational
program
 Determination of production level
 Determination of sales budget
 Determination of sales quota
 Determination of sales territories
11
Step:- 8 – Evaluation &
Revision
 Actual sales are compared
with estimated sales
 If considerable difference
then reasons are to be
identified
 Corrective steps to be taken
12
13
Method:- 1- Executive Opinion
Method
 A committee of top executives
 Each member gives estimate of
future sales for a particular period
 Estimate is based on information,
judgment & experience
 Collective decision is taken after
discussion
14
Method:- 2 – Experts opinion
Method
 Outside experts
 They have best knowledge of market
condition taste and preferences of
target, level of competition
 They may be technical consultant
distributors, market research firms,
advertising agencies, person working in
media, wholesalers, retailers etc.
15
Method:- 3 – Sales Force Opinion
Method
 Opinion of salesmen & sales manager
 Each salesmen gives estimate of sales
of his sales territory
 For a particular time
 Then individual estimates are combined
 Hence sale forecast of whole
organization made
16
Method:- 4 – Delphi Method
 Extension of expert opinion method
 Widely used in USA
 No committee/ panel is formed
 Opinion of sales expert are presented
before other sales expert in a chain
manner
 Last sale expert forms final opinion
about sales forecast
17
Method:- 5 – User’s Expectation
Method
 It is also known as survey of
customers method
 Contact to user of product
 Asked them to give their
estimated purchased in estimated
time
 Total of all users data is our
estimates sales
18
Method:- 5 – Economic Indicators Analysis
Method
 Growth rate
 Inflation rate
 Government policies
 Repo rate
 Reverse repo rate
19
Method:- 6 - Past Sales Projection
Method
 Past sale of immediate previous years is
taken as base
 Average sale of past few years may also be
taken as base
 Certain percentage is added keeping in view:
1. Growth trends
2. Future changes in marketing mix
3. Level of competition
20
Method:- 7 – Market Test
Method
 Particular area of market is select
for test
 Companies product is launched
there
 Sales in test is recorded for
particular area of time
 It is multiplied to the whole market
area
21
Method:- 8 – Statistical
Method
 Trends projection
 Regression Analysis
 Exponential Trend
Method
22

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Sales forecasting

  • 2. 2  It is the expected level of company sales  Based on chosen marketing plan  Assumed environmental conditions  It is prediction of future sales potential By Philip Kotler DEFINITION
  • 3. 3
  • 4. 4  Period  Geographical market area  Availability of Time and Finance  Single product or full product line Step:- 1 – Deciding Basic Issues
  • 5. 5 Step:- 2 - Identifying Important Factors  Level of competition  Economic conditions  Marketing strategy  Promotion budget  Stage of product life cycle  Government policies
  • 6. 6 Step:- 3 - Selecting Suitable Methods  Nature of product  Available finance  Available time  Experience  Caliber of sales executive
  • 7. 7 Step:- 4 - Deciding Length  Short term:- less than 1 year  Medium term:- 1 year to 5 years  Long term:- more than 5 years
  • 8. 8 Step:- 5 – Preliminary Sales Forecast  Data collection  Data analysis  Experience of sales staff  Growth trends in sales
  • 9. 9 Step:- 6 – Final Sales Forecast  Preliminary sales forecast are presented before top management  After approval of top management , Preliminary sales forecast become final sale forecast
  • 10. 10 Step:- 7 – Making operational program  Determination of production level  Determination of sales budget  Determination of sales quota  Determination of sales territories
  • 11. 11 Step:- 8 – Evaluation & Revision  Actual sales are compared with estimated sales  If considerable difference then reasons are to be identified  Corrective steps to be taken
  • 12. 12
  • 13. 13 Method:- 1- Executive Opinion Method  A committee of top executives  Each member gives estimate of future sales for a particular period  Estimate is based on information, judgment & experience  Collective decision is taken after discussion
  • 14. 14 Method:- 2 – Experts opinion Method  Outside experts  They have best knowledge of market condition taste and preferences of target, level of competition  They may be technical consultant distributors, market research firms, advertising agencies, person working in media, wholesalers, retailers etc.
  • 15. 15 Method:- 3 – Sales Force Opinion Method  Opinion of salesmen & sales manager  Each salesmen gives estimate of sales of his sales territory  For a particular time  Then individual estimates are combined  Hence sale forecast of whole organization made
  • 16. 16 Method:- 4 – Delphi Method  Extension of expert opinion method  Widely used in USA  No committee/ panel is formed  Opinion of sales expert are presented before other sales expert in a chain manner  Last sale expert forms final opinion about sales forecast
  • 17. 17 Method:- 5 – User’s Expectation Method  It is also known as survey of customers method  Contact to user of product  Asked them to give their estimated purchased in estimated time  Total of all users data is our estimates sales
  • 18. 18 Method:- 5 – Economic Indicators Analysis Method  Growth rate  Inflation rate  Government policies  Repo rate  Reverse repo rate
  • 19. 19 Method:- 6 - Past Sales Projection Method  Past sale of immediate previous years is taken as base  Average sale of past few years may also be taken as base  Certain percentage is added keeping in view: 1. Growth trends 2. Future changes in marketing mix 3. Level of competition
  • 20. 20 Method:- 7 – Market Test Method  Particular area of market is select for test  Companies product is launched there  Sales in test is recorded for particular area of time  It is multiplied to the whole market area
  • 21. 21 Method:- 8 – Statistical Method  Trends projection  Regression Analysis  Exponential Trend Method
  • 22. 22