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Risk Management
CASE STUDY
7/28/2017 1
Eng. Ahmed Said
Content:
1. Introduction
2. Risk Sources
3. Roles and Responsibilities
4. Plan Risk Management
5. Identify Risks
6. Qualit...
General Hospital
‫المشروع‬ ‫عن‬ ‫نبذة‬
‫اﻷرض‬ ‫مساحة‬ ‫اجمالى‬):٣١٠٦٨٦٫٢٣(‫مربع‬ ‫متر‬
‫للمشروع‬ ‫اﻹجمالية‬ ‫القيمة‬:٤٧٠‫﷼‬ ‫مليون‬
‫المشرو...
‫المشروع‬ ‫مراحل‬
‫اﻻولى‬ ‫المرحلة‬:‫مساحة‬ ‫على‬)١٤٦٥١٨٫٩(‫مربع‬ ‫متر‬)‫التعميد‬ ‫تم‬(
‫اﻻرضى‬ ‫الدور‬ ‫الرئيسى‬ ‫المبنى‬...
1.1 Introduction – Understanding The Risk:
7/28/2017 6
Definitions:
Risk or Risk event
A general definition of “risk” in this context is:
Risk is an uncertainty that matters;...
Definitions:
Uncertainty
An uncommon state of nature, characterized by the absence of any
information related to a desir...
1.2 Risk Sources
7/28/2017 9
External risk: Building permits???!!!!
 Schedule risk: Annual Hurricanes/Dust storms and which will last for two
months ...
 Quality risk: the concrete may not dry on a short time During winter
weather causing us to not meet our quality standard...
7/28/2017 12
11.1 Plan Risk
Management
• Plan Risk Management is the process of
defining how to conduct risk
management activities for ...
7/28/2017 14
‫المخاطر؟‬ ‫إدارة‬ ‫لخطة‬ ‫العريضة‬ ‫الخطوط‬ ‫هي‬ ‫ما‬
What is a Risk Plan Outlines?
‫المشروع‬ ‫لمخاطر‬ ‫العريضة‬ ‫الخطوط...
‫المخاطر؟‬ ‫إدارة‬ ‫خطة‬ ‫ننشأ‬ ‫و‬ ‫نستخدم‬ ‫متي‬
‫المخاطر‬ ‫خطة‬ ‫تكون‬ ‫أن‬ ‫يجب‬‫التخطيط‬ ‫مرحلة‬ ‫خﻼل‬ ،‫المشروع‬ ‫م...
Our Form (Organizational Process Assets)
7/28/2017 17
Risk Form:
Our Form (Organizational Process Assets)
7/28/2017 18
Risk Register:
‫المخاطر‬ ‫إدارة‬ ‫خطة‬ ‫إعداد‬RMP
docxRisk Management Plan Project Template.…………
7/28/2017 19
‫به‬ ‫القيام‬ ‫يجب‬ ‫الذي‬ ‫العمل‬ ‫على‬ ‫تطغى‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫أن‬ ‫يجب‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫إدارة‬)‫ت‬ ‫إذا‬‫م‬
‫مخاطر‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫تحديد‬=‫الﻼعودة...
11.2 Identify Risks
• Identify Risks is the
process of determining
which risks may affect the
project and documenting
thei...
‫المخاطر‬ ‫تحديد‬
)Risk Form(
•‫تعريف‬:
•‫تحديد‬‫المخاطر‬‫هو‬‫تقرير‬‫و‬‫توقع‬‫ما‬‫قد‬‫يحدث‬‫و‬‫يمكن‬‫أن‬‫يؤثر‬‫على‬‫أهداف‬...
Risk Register
7/28/2017 23
Risk Categories (Or RBS)
Construction
Analytics
Complexity and
Interface
Process
Quality
Performance &
reliability
Design
...
11.3 Perform
Qualitative Risk
Analysis
• Perform Qualitative Risk
Analysis is the process of
prioritizing risks for furthe...
٠٦-‫النوع‬ ‫التحليل‬‫ي‬
‫للمخاطر‬
•‫يستند‬‫التحليل‬‫النوعي‬‫على‬‫جداول‬‫اسمية‬‫أو‬‫وصفية‬‫لوصف‬‫احتمال‬‫وعواق‬‫ب‬
‫المخاط...
DEFINITIONS OF IMPACT AND
PROBABILITY RATINGS (as agreed)
Rating --> Very Low Low Medium/
Moderate
High Very High
Cost Imp...
Probability and Impact Ratings for
Projects
‫ال‬ ‫الجدول‬ ‫يسرد‬‫سابق‬‫المعتمد‬ ‫تصنيفنا‬)‫القياسي‬(‫التأث‬ ‫درجات‬ ‫و‬ ‫...
Probability and Impact Matrix
(Heat Map)
7/28/2017 29
‫لون‬‫المنطقة‬‫يدل‬‫على‬‫مستوي‬‫أولوية‬‫مواجهة‬‫المخاطر‬:‫فالمنطقة‬...
Risk Register
7/28/2017 30
11.4 Perform
Quantitative Risk
Analysis
• Perform Quantitative Risk
Analysis is the process of
numerically analyzing the
e...
‫للمخاطر‬ ‫الكمي‬ ‫التحليل‬
Quantitative Risk
Analysis
١-‫التعريف‬
‫عند‬ ‫عددية‬ ‫بقيمة‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫لتقدير‬ ‫وسيلة‬ ‫هو‬ ‫...
‫للمخاطر‬ ‫الكمي‬ ‫التحليل‬
Quantitative Risk
Analysis
‫يتم‬ ‫كيف‬‫اعداد‬‫التحليل‬‫الكمى‬‫للمخاطر‬
،‫للمخاطر‬ ‫الكمي‬ ‫ال...
Risk Register
7/28/2017 34
7/28/2017 35
Quantitative Risk Analysis
Tools and Techniques
1. Data Gathering and representation techniques
• Interviewin...
٠٧–‫ادوات‬‫للمخاطر‬ ‫الكمي‬ ‫التحليل‬
 Quantitative risk and opportunity
assessment provides a numerical value
measuring ...
Decision Tree (Expected Monitory Value)
– Choosing Sub-Contractor
7/28/2017 37
Hiring Sub-C. For
Insufficient Labor
Low Bi...
Modeling and simulation and
Probability Distribution
7/28/2017 38
QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS VERSUS
QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS
QUALITATIVE QUANTITATIVE
Risk-Level Project-Level
Subjective e...
11.5 Plan Risk
Responses
• Plan Risk Responses is the process
of developing options and actions
to enhance opportunities a...
٠٨–‫اﻹستحابة‬
‫للمخاطر‬
‫للمخاطر‬ ‫اﻻستجابة‬
‫أ‬ ‫من‬ ،‫اﻹجراءات‬ ‫وتحديد‬ ،‫اﻻستراتيجية‬ ‫الخيارات‬ ‫وضع‬ ‫عملية‬ ‫هو‬‫...
11.6 Control Risks
• Control Risks is the process of
implementing risk response plans, tracking
identified risks, monitori...
٠٩–‫الرقاب‬ ‫و‬ ‫السيطرة‬‫ة‬
‫المخاطر‬ ‫علي‬
‫المرحلة‬ ‫هذه‬ ‫في‬ ‫الضرورة‬ ‫حسب‬ ‫التقييم‬.
‫عن‬ ‫المسئول‬ ‫دعم‬ ‫و‬ ‫ا...
Risk Review and Updating
7/28/2017 44
Lessons Learned
7/28/2017 45
‫عندما‬‫ينتهي‬‫او‬‫يستبعد‬‫اي‬‫من‬‫المخاطر‬،‫فإن‬‫فريق‬
‫العمل‬PRMT‫يتوجب‬‫عليه‬‫مراجعة‬‫تاري...
References:
1. ICB - IPMA (International Competence Baseline Version 3.0).
2. Developing the Risk Register-Ahmed Said.
3. ...
‫ن‬‫الجميع‬ ‫به‬ ‫ينفع‬ ‫ان‬ ‫رجو‬-‫تحيات‬ ‫خالص‬ ‫مع‬‫نا‬
7/28/2017 47
‫للتطبيق؟‬ ‫جاهز‬ ‫انت‬ ‫هل‬
Project Risk Management Plan
Date of Issue 03/01/1437 (Hijri) – 03/11/2015 (Gregorian)
General Report Form PMO-FM-RP-06(00)
Risk Managment Project Template
Issue Date: 15 December 2016
Page 2 of 9
Contents
1  Introduction 3 
1.1  Purpose of the R...
Risk Managment Project Template
Issue Date: 15 December 2016
Page 3 of 9
1 Introduction
1.1 Purpose of the Risk Management...
Risk Managment Project Template
Issue Date: 15 December 2016
Page 4 of 9
2.3.1 Methods for Risk Identification
The followi...
Risk Managment Project Template
Issue Date: 15 December 2016
Page 5 of 9
2.5 Risk Response Planning
Each major risk (those...
Risk Managment Project Template
Issue Date: 15 December 2016
Page 6 of 9
The Risk Owner will:
- Help develop the risk resp...
Risk Managment Project Template
Issue Date: 15 December 2016
Page 7 of 9
6 Attachment A
6.1 Risk Management Plan Approval
...
Risk Managment Project Template
Issue Date: 15 December 2016
Page 8 of 9
7 Attachment B
7.1 Register of Reference Document...
Risk Managment Project Template
Issue Date: 15 December 2016
Page 9 of 9
8 Attachment C
8.1 Schedule of Key Terms
The foll...
1
Risk Form
PROJECT DETAILS©
Project Name: Name of the project to which the risk relates Al-Manar Specialized Hospital 500...
2
‫اﻟﻌﻮاﺻﻒ‬ ‫اﺛﻨﺎء‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻮﻗﻊ‬
‫اﻟﻌﻮاﺻﻒ‬ ‫اﺛﻨﺎء‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻮﻗﻊ‬‫اﻟﻌﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﻓﺮﯾﻖ‬ ‫ﻣﻐﺎدرة‬ ‫و‬
3
4
‫اﻟﻌﻮاﺻﻒ‬ ‫ھﺪوء‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺪ‬ ‫ﺻﻮرة‬
5
‫اﻟﻤﺤﯿﻄﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻄﺮق‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﺤﺮﻛﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺮﻣﺎل‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﻟﻜﺜﺒﺎن‬ ‫ﺣﺠﻢ‬
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Minimum 9 Date
Maximum 225
Actual 99
Item
No.
Risk Birth
Date /
Project
Phase
Status
Risk
Category
Risk Event Cause Effect...
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Risk management case study

This is a real & practical case study
construction project management risks
as PMI methodology

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Risk management case study

  1. 1. Risk Management CASE STUDY 7/28/2017 1 Eng. Ahmed Said
  2. 2. Content: 1. Introduction 2. Risk Sources 3. Roles and Responsibilities 4. Plan Risk Management 5. Identify Risks 6. Qualitative Risk Analysis 7. Quantitative Risk Analysis 8. Risk Responses 9. Control Risk 7/28/2017 2
  3. 3. General Hospital
  4. 4. ‫المشروع‬ ‫عن‬ ‫نبذة‬ ‫اﻷرض‬ ‫مساحة‬ ‫اجمالى‬):٣١٠٦٨٦٫٢٣(‫مربع‬ ‫متر‬ ‫للمشروع‬ ‫اﻹجمالية‬ ‫القيمة‬:٤٧٠‫﷼‬ ‫مليون‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫مدة‬ ◦‫اﻷولي‬ ‫المرحلة‬٣٦‫شهر‬ ◦‫الثانية‬ ‫المرحلة‬٢٤‫شهر‬ ‫سعة‬ ‫مستشفى‬ ‫مشروع‬ ‫المباني‬ ‫مساحة‬ ‫تبلغ‬٢٠٠‫سرير‬١١٦٠٠٠‫مربع‬ ‫متر‬)Built Up(‫يلي‬ ‫مما‬ ‫وتتكون‬ ً‫ا‬‫تقريب‬: ‫الرئيسي‬ ‫المبنى‬–‫الخدمات‬ ‫مبنى‬–‫عدد‬٢‫حارس‬ ‫مبني‬-‫من‬ ‫ويتألف‬ ‫العام‬ ‫الموقع‬١-‫ثﻼثة‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﻷسوار‬ ‫للمستشفى‬ ‫رئيسية‬ ‫بوابات‬٢-‫اﻷرضية‬ ‫المياه‬ ‫خزانات‬٣-‫الديزل‬ ‫خزانات‬٤-‫اﻷوكسجين‬ ‫خزان‬ ‫غرفة‬ ٥-‫المسال‬ ‫الغاز‬ ‫خزانات‬٦-‫الخضراء‬ ‫الساحات‬+‫للسيارات‬ ‫مواقف‬+‫الهيليكوبتر‬ ‫للطائرة‬ ‫مدرج‬
  5. 5. ‫المشروع‬ ‫مراحل‬ ‫اﻻولى‬ ‫المرحلة‬:‫مساحة‬ ‫على‬)١٤٦٥١٨٫٩(‫مربع‬ ‫متر‬)‫التعميد‬ ‫تم‬( ‫اﻻرضى‬ ‫الدور‬ ‫الرئيسى‬ ‫المبنى‬) :١٤٣٢٨(‫م‬٢‫اﻷدوار‬ ‫إجمالي‬:٣٦٠٠٠‫م‬٢ ‫اﻻرضى‬ ‫الدور‬ ‫الخدمات‬ ‫مبنى‬) :٢٢١٩٫٣٤٨(‫م‬٢ ‫اسفلت‬)‫مواقف‬+‫طرق‬) : (٥٩٤٣٢٫٤٥(‫م‬٢ ‫خضراء‬ ‫مساحات‬) :٥٦٣٠٣(‫م‬٢ ‫ارصفة‬) :١٤٢٣٦٫١١(‫م‬٢ ‫الثانية‬ ‫المرحلة‬):‫اسكان‬ ‫مبانى‬+‫مواقف‬+‫خضراء‬ ‫مساحات‬+‫اسوار‬(‫مساحة‬ ‫على‬)١٦٤١٦٧٫٣(‫متر‬ ‫مربع‬)‫التعميد‬ ‫تم‬.(
  6. 6. 1.1 Introduction – Understanding The Risk: 7/28/2017 6
  7. 7. Definitions: Risk or Risk event A general definition of “risk” in this context is: Risk is an uncertainty that matters; it can affect project objectives negatively or positively. The uncertainty may be about a future event that may or may not happen and the unknown magnitude of the impact on project objectives if it does happen. Thus, a “risk” is characterized by its probability of occurrence and its uncertain impact on project objectives. 7/28/2017 7
  8. 8. Definitions: Uncertainty An uncommon state of nature, characterized by the absence of any information related to a desired. 7/28/2017 8 ‫و‬‫هي‬ ‫مجاﻻت‬ ‫خمسة‬ ‫في‬ ‫اليقين‬ ‫عدم‬ ‫يظهر‬: ١.‫اليقين‬ ‫عدم‬ ‫و‬ ‫التباين‬)‫الثقة‬ ‫معيار‬(‫التسعير‬ ‫و‬ ‫بالتقديرات‬ ‫المرتبط‬‫المشروع‬ ‫نهاية‬ ‫حتي‬ ‫ثباته‬ ‫و‬. ٢.‫حول‬ ‫الشكوك‬‫البيئة‬‫واﻹمداد‬ ‫والنقل‬‫المشروع‬ ‫الي‬ ‫الوصول‬ ‫زمن‬ ‫و‬.)‫المع‬ ‫رجال‬/‫الدرب‬( ٣.‫التصميم‬ ‫حول‬ ‫الثقة‬ ‫عدم‬ ‫و‬ ‫الغموض‬)‫اﻹحتياجات‬ ‫و‬ ‫الهدف‬.( ٤.‫حول‬ ‫الغموض‬‫الزمن‬ ‫و‬ ‫التمويل‬ ‫و‬ ‫وفرتها‬ ‫و‬ ‫الموارد‬. ٥.‫المصلحة‬ ‫أصحاب‬ ‫و‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫في‬ ‫المشاركة‬ ‫اﻷطراف‬ ‫بين‬ ‫اﻷساسية‬ ‫العﻼقات‬ ‫بشأن‬ ‫اليقين‬ ‫عدم‬)‫المسئولي‬ ‫و‬ ‫المتطلبات‬‫ات‬.( ‫من‬ ‫المزيد‬ ‫الي‬ ‫نمضي‬ ‫ونحن‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫ﻷداء‬ ‫أساسية‬ ‫أهمية‬ ‫أكثر‬ ‫تصبح‬ ‫فإنها‬ ‫عموما‬ ‫ولكن‬ ،‫مهمة‬ ‫اليقين‬ ‫عدم‬ ‫من‬ ‫المناطق‬ ‫هذه‬ ‫كل‬ ‫مواجهتها‬ ‫علي‬ ‫العمل‬ ‫التفاصيل‬.
  9. 9. 1.2 Risk Sources 7/28/2017 9
  10. 10. External risk: Building permits???!!!!  Schedule risk: Annual Hurricanes/Dust storms and which will last for two months a year, which cause a fall in labour productivity due to lower working hours during that period as well as material losses.  Cost risk: because the Cladding may arrive later than planned, we may need to extend our lease of scaffolding on the staging area at a cost of $ 200K. 7/28/2017 10 Source of RISK (In Project):
  11. 11.  Quality risk: the concrete may not dry on a short time During winter weather causing us to not meet our quality standard of concrete strength. Resource risk: Formwork/steel Fixing Sub-Contractor will leave due to Late of steel supply which caused long time of tasks This Sub-Con more qualified/safe time more than others.  Customer satisfaction ( stakeholder satisfaction ) risk: there is a chance that the customer will not be happy with XYZ delay also Quality. 7/28/2017 11 Source of RISK (In Examples):
  12. 12. 7/28/2017 12
  13. 13. 11.1 Plan Risk Management • Plan Risk Management is the process of defining how to conduct risk management activities for a project. • The key benefit of this process is it ensures that the degree, type, and visibility of risk management are commensurate with both the risks and the importance of the project to the organization. • A Risk Plan should be documented early in the project, during the Planning phase. • The plan is undertaken prior to the Execution phase to ensure that any risks identified are addressed during the Execution phase itself. 7/28/2017 13
  14. 14. 7/28/2017 14
  15. 15. ‫المخاطر؟‬ ‫إدارة‬ ‫لخطة‬ ‫العريضة‬ ‫الخطوط‬ ‫هي‬ ‫ما‬ What is a Risk Plan Outlines? ‫المشروع‬ ‫لمخاطر‬ ‫العريضة‬ ‫الخطوط‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫خطة‬ ‫تشمل‬ ‫المتوقعة‬. ‫من‬ ‫لكﻼ‬ ‫اتخاذها‬ ‫يجب‬ ‫التي‬ ‫اﻹجراءات‬ ‫من‬ ‫مجموعة‬ ‫توفر‬: ‫الحدوث‬ ‫من‬ ‫الخطر‬ ‫منع‬. ‫منها‬ ‫مفر‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫التي‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫تأثير‬ ‫من‬ ‫الحد‬. ‫الخطة‬ ‫تشمل‬ ،‫تحديدا‬ ‫أكثر‬ ‫وبشكل‬: ١.‫المشروع‬ ‫خﻼل‬ ‫المتوقعة‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫لكافة‬ ‫كاملة‬ ‫قائمة‬. ٢.‫المخاطر‬ ‫ﻹدارة‬ ‫الﻼزمة‬ ‫المعامﻼت‬ ‫و‬ ‫المستندات‬ ‫و‬ ‫النماذج‬. ٣.‫طريقة‬‫ت‬ ‫أن‬ ‫المتوقع‬ ‫من‬ ‫التي‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫كل‬ ‫احتمال‬ ‫تقييم‬‫حدث‬. ٤.‫ك‬ ‫عند‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫على‬ ‫التأثير‬ ‫درجات‬ ‫تصنيف‬ ‫و‬ ‫تقييم‬‫خطر‬ ‫ل‬ ‫الواقع‬ ‫في‬ ‫يحدث‬ ‫أن‬ ‫يمكن‬. ٥.‫سنتعا‬ ‫التي‬ ‫الشاملة‬ ‫اﻷهمية‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﻷولوية‬ ‫درجات‬ ‫تصنيف‬‫بها‬ ‫مل‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫كل‬ ‫تققيم‬ ‫عند‬. ٦.‫وقوع‬ ‫احتمال‬ ‫من‬ ‫للحد‬ ‫الوقائية‬ ‫اﻹجراءات‬ ‫من‬ ‫مجموعة‬ ‫تشمل‬ ‫المتوقعة‬ ‫المخاطر‬. ٧.‫تأثير‬ ‫من‬ ‫للحد‬ ‫المحتملة‬ ‫اﻹجراءات‬ ‫من‬ ‫مجموعة‬ ‫وهناك‬ ‫المتوقعة‬ ‫المخاطر‬. ٨.‫المشروع‬ ‫خﻼل‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫إدارة‬ ‫عمليات‬ ‫و‬ ‫مراحل‬. 7/28/2017 15
  16. 16. ‫المخاطر؟‬ ‫إدارة‬ ‫خطة‬ ‫ننشأ‬ ‫و‬ ‫نستخدم‬ ‫متي‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫خطة‬ ‫تكون‬ ‫أن‬ ‫يجب‬‫التخطيط‬ ‫مرحلة‬ ‫خﻼل‬ ،‫المشروع‬ ‫من‬ ‫مبكر‬ ‫وقت‬ ‫في‬ ‫موثقة‬. ‫خ‬ ‫لما‬ ‫طبقا‬ ‫تنفيذ‬ ‫مرحلة‬ ‫خﻼل‬ ‫معالجتها‬ ‫سيتم‬ ‫تحديدها‬ ‫تم‬ ‫التي‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫أن‬ ‫لضمان‬ ‫التنفيذ‬ ‫مرحلة‬ ‫قبل‬ ‫الخطة‬ ‫عمل‬ ‫يتم‬‫له‬ ‫ططنا‬. ‫عل‬ ‫والسيطرة‬ ‫المراقبة‬ ‫اجل‬ ‫من‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫إدارة‬ ‫عملية‬ ‫في‬ ‫فعال‬ ‫بشكل‬ ‫تساهم‬ ‫سوف‬ ،‫الخطة‬ ‫هذه‬ ‫توثيق‬ ‫تم‬ ‫أن‬ ‫بعد‬ ‫الفور‬ ‫على‬‫ى‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫في‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫وتأثير‬ ‫احتمال‬.....‫الرؤية‬ ‫نمتلك‬ ‫ﻷننا‬. The Risk Management Process is terminated only when the Execution phase of the project is completed (i.e. just prior to Project Closure). 7/28/2017 16
  17. 17. Our Form (Organizational Process Assets) 7/28/2017 17 Risk Form:
  18. 18. Our Form (Organizational Process Assets) 7/28/2017 18 Risk Register:
  19. 19. ‫المخاطر‬ ‫إدارة‬ ‫خطة‬ ‫إعداد‬RMP docxRisk Management Plan Project Template.………… 7/28/2017 19
  20. 20. ‫به‬ ‫القيام‬ ‫يجب‬ ‫الذي‬ ‫العمل‬ ‫على‬ ‫تطغى‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫أن‬ ‫يجب‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫إدارة‬)‫ت‬ ‫إذا‬‫م‬ ‫مخاطر‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫تحديد‬=‫الﻼعودة‬.( ‫تنفق‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫أيضا‬ ‫ولكن‬ ،‫تماما‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫منخفضة‬ ‫العناصر‬ ‫تتجاهل‬ ‫ﻻ‬‫الكثير‬ ‫عليهم‬ ‫الوقت‬ ‫من‬. ‫المخاطر‬ ‫لجميع‬ ‫تحديد‬ ‫لديك‬ ‫أن‬ ‫تفترض‬ ‫ﻻ‬. 7/28/2017 20 ‫إحذر‬ ‫إعداد‬ ‫عند‬/‫المخاطر‬ ‫إدارة‬ ‫خطة‬ ‫تطوير‬....
  21. 21. 11.2 Identify Risks • Identify Risks is the process of determining which risks may affect the project and documenting their characteristics. • The key benefit of this process is the documentation of existing risks and the knowledge and ability it provides to the project team to anticipate events. 7/28/2017 21 1. Plan Risk Management 2. Identify Risks 3. Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis 4. Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis 5. Plan Risk Responses 6. Control Risks
  22. 22. ‫المخاطر‬ ‫تحديد‬ )Risk Form( •‫تعريف‬: •‫تحديد‬‫المخاطر‬‫هو‬‫تقرير‬‫و‬‫توقع‬‫ما‬‫قد‬‫يحدث‬‫و‬‫يمكن‬‫أن‬‫يؤثر‬‫على‬‫أهداف‬‫المشروع‬‫وكيفي‬‫ة‬ ‫حدوث‬‫هذه‬‫اﻷمور‬. •‫أهم‬‫مخرجات‬‫هذ‬‫المرحلة‬-‫سجل‬‫مخاطر‬‫المشروع‬-‫الذي‬‫يوثق‬‫المخاطر‬‫وخصائصها‬. •‫يتم‬‫تعديل‬‫سجل‬‫المخاطر‬‫في‬‫وقت‬‫ﻻحق‬‫عن‬‫طريق‬‫التحليل‬‫النوعي‬‫و‬‫الكمي‬‫للمخاط‬،‫ر‬‫و‬ ‫يشمل‬‫محددا‬‫ت‬‫اﻻستجابة‬،‫للمخاطر‬‫وعمليات‬‫المراقبة‬‫و‬‫السيطرة‬‫علي‬‫المخاطر‬. •‫تحديد‬‫المخاطر‬‫هو‬‫عملية‬‫تكرارية‬‫يتم‬‫تحديثها‬‫و‬‫من‬‫خﻼلها‬‫تدمج‬‫مخاطر‬‫جديدة‬‫قد‬‫تص‬‫بح‬ ‫معروفة‬/‫متوقعة‬‫مع‬‫تقدم‬‫المشروع‬‫خﻼل‬‫دورة‬،‫حياته‬‫و‬‫المخاطر‬‫التي‬‫تم‬‫تحديدها‬‫ساب‬‫قا‬‫قد‬ ‫تكون‬‫انتهت‬‫او‬،‫نحيت‬‫ويمكن‬‫أن‬‫تطرأ‬/‫نتوقع‬‫حدوث‬‫مخاطر‬‫أخرى‬. ‫يتم‬‫إدخال‬‫المعلومات‬‫في‬‫سجل‬‫المخاطر‬. ‫يتم‬‫تحديد‬‫مسئول‬‫من‬‫ضمن‬‫فريق‬‫إدارة‬‫المخاطر‬)PRMT(‫لكل‬‫واحد‬‫من‬‫تلك‬‫المخاطر‬ ‫الذي‬‫يصبح‬‫المسئول‬‫عنه‬Risk Owner. ‫يتم‬‫مراجعة‬‫سجل‬‫المخاطر‬‫وتحديثه‬‫في‬‫جميع‬‫مراحل‬‫المشروع‬. ‫يجوز‬‫لمدير‬‫المشروع‬‫ان‬‫يكون‬‫احد‬‫خياراته‬‫استنباط‬‫سجﻼت‬‫المخاطر‬‫اﻷولية‬‫ﻷجز‬‫اء‬‫او‬ ‫مراحل‬‫المشروع‬‫و‬‫توظيفها‬‫و‬‫دمجها‬‫في‬‫إعداد‬‫سجل‬‫المخاطر‬‫للمشروع‬. ‫مع‬،‫ذلك‬‫يتم‬‫إعداد‬/‫تطوير‬‫سجل‬‫مخاطر‬‫المشروع‬‫خﻼل‬‫إجتماع‬PRMT. 7/28/2017 22
  23. 23. Risk Register 7/28/2017 23
  24. 24. Risk Categories (Or RBS) Construction Analytics Complexity and Interface Process Quality Performance & reliability Design Business Benefits Requirement Technology Acceptance & Deliverable External Subcontractors & Suppliers Regularity Customer Government Law Market Organizational Project Dependencies Resources Budgeting & Funding Prioritization Staffing Quality & Sufficiency Environment Weather Topography Issues Project Management Scope Culture Estimating Planning & Controlling Communication 7/28/2017 ENG.AHMED SAID REFAEI 24
  25. 25. 11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis • Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis is the process of prioritizing risks for further analysis or action by assessing and combining their probability of occurrence and impact. • The key benefit of this process is that it enables project managers to reduce the level of uncertainty and to focus on high-priority risks. 7/28/2017 25 1. Plan Risk Management 2. Identify Risks 3. Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis 4. Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis 5. Plan Risk Responses 6. Control Risks
  26. 26. ٠٦-‫النوع‬ ‫التحليل‬‫ي‬ ‫للمخاطر‬ •‫يستند‬‫التحليل‬‫النوعي‬‫على‬‫جداول‬‫اسمية‬‫أو‬‫وصفية‬‫لوصف‬‫احتمال‬‫وعواق‬‫ب‬ ‫المخاطر‬. ‫تعتبر‬‫اول‬‫عمليات‬‫الفحص‬‫و‬‫التنقيح‬‫و‬‫التصفية‬‫للمخاطر‬‫او‬‫الفرص‬ ‫و‬‫يمكن‬‫اﻹعتماد‬‫عليها‬‫عندما‬‫يطلب‬‫إجراء‬‫تقييم‬‫سريع‬‫و‬‫إجراءات‬‫تصحيحي‬‫ة‬. ‫في‬‫هذه‬‫المرحلة‬‫سيتم‬‫تقييم‬‫احتمال‬‫وقوع‬‫كل‬‫المخاطر‬‫التي‬‫تم‬‫تحديدها‬‫وتأثيره‬،‫ا‬‫و‬‫يقوم‬ ‫فريق‬‫العمل‬‫مستعينا‬‫بالخبرات‬‫الﻼزمه‬‫بتحديد‬‫المدخﻼت‬. ‫تحديد‬‫أولويات‬‫المخاطر‬‫التي‬‫تم‬‫تحديدها‬‫سابقا‬‫ضمن‬‫خطة‬‫ادارة‬‫المخاطر‬‫و‬‫تعريف‬ ‫المخاطر‬. ‫فريق‬‫ادارة‬‫المخاطر‬‫يمكنه‬‫تحسين‬‫أداء‬‫المشروع‬‫بشكل‬‫فعال‬‫من‬‫خﻼل‬‫التركيز‬‫عل‬‫ى‬ ‫المخاطر‬‫ذات‬‫اﻷولوية‬‫العالية‬. ‫ضرورة‬‫إستمرار‬‫و‬‫تكرار‬‫إعادة‬‫النظر‬‫في‬‫التحليل‬‫النوعي‬‫للمخاطر‬‫خﻼل‬‫دورة‬‫حياة‬ ‫المشروع‬‫يساهم‬‫في‬‫التحديث‬‫المستمر‬‫للتقييم‬‫و‬‫اﻹستعدادات‬. 7/28/2017 26
  27. 27. DEFINITIONS OF IMPACT AND PROBABILITY RATINGS (as agreed) Rating --> Very Low Low Medium/ Moderate High Very High Cost Impact of Threat (CO + COS) Insignificant cost increase <5% cost increase 5-10% cost increase 10-20% cost increase >20% cost increase Cost Impact of Opportunity (CO + COS) Insignificant cost reduction <1% cost decrease 1-3% cost decreaseRisk Managment Project Template.docx 3-5% cost decrease >5% cost decrease Schedule Impact of Threat Insignificant slippage <1 month slippage 1-3 months slippage 3-6 months slippage >6 months slippage Schedule Impact of Opportunity Insignificant improvement <1 month improvement 1-2 months improvement 2-3 months improvement >3 months improvement Probability 1–9% 10–39% 40–59% 60–89% 90–99% 7/28/2017 27
  28. 28. Probability and Impact Ratings for Projects ‫ال‬ ‫الجدول‬ ‫يسرد‬‫سابق‬‫المعتمد‬ ‫تصنيفنا‬)‫القياسي‬(‫التأث‬ ‫درجات‬ ‫و‬ ‫الخطر‬ ‫احتمال‬ ‫لمستويات‬‫ير‬ ‫المحتملة‬.‫ال‬ ‫او‬ ‫للتكلفة‬ ‫الحقيقية‬ ‫القيم‬ ‫استعملنا‬ ‫اذا‬ ‫بكثير‬ ‫اسهل‬ ‫التقييم‬ ‫هذا‬ ‫يكون‬ ‫قد‬‫بوحدة‬ ‫وقت‬ ‫الزمن‬ ‫او‬ ‫العملة‬. ‫دليل‬ ‫يعتبر‬ ‫التأثير‬ ‫لمستويات‬ ‫التصنيف‬ ‫و‬ ‫التقييم‬ ‫هذا‬‫تصنيف‬ ‫يشمل‬ ‫و‬ ‫عملي‬‫اﻹحتم‬‫للمخاطر‬ ‫اﻻت‬ ‫المتوقعة‬‫يعتبر‬ ‫و‬‫حيا‬ ‫أثناء‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫تقييم‬ ‫في‬ ‫العمل‬ ‫لفريق‬ ‫دستور‬ ‫و‬ ‫ثابت‬ ‫إطار‬ ‫بمثابة‬‫المشروع‬ ‫ة‬. ‫المخاطر‬ ‫خطة‬ ‫في‬ ‫الجدول‬ ‫إعداد‬ ‫تم‬Risk Management Plan‫الج‬ ‫و‬‫الوقت‬ ‫و‬ ‫بالعملة‬ ‫يحدد‬ ‫دول‬ ‫مستوي‬ ‫لكل‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫لهذا‬ ‫مناسبا‬ ‫يراه‬ ‫ما‬ ‫الزمني‬.‫ا‬ ‫و‬ ‫المستويات‬ ‫هذه‬ ‫تطبيق‬ ‫صﻼحية‬ ‫بشرط‬‫ﻵثار‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫كامل‬ ‫علي‬. ‫تشمل‬ ‫و‬ ‫تتعدي‬ ‫إنما‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﻷنشطة‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﻷعمال‬ ‫بنود‬ ‫تخص‬ ‫التي‬ ‫التكلفة‬ ‫علي‬ ‫فقط‬ ‫اﻵثار‬ ‫تقف‬ ‫ﻻ‬‫ايضا‬ ‫انواعه‬ ‫بكل‬ ‫الخارجي‬ ‫التمويل‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﻹتمان‬ ‫علي‬ ‫التأثير‬‫دراسة‬ ‫تستوجب‬ ‫التي‬ ‫و‬Payback Period & Break Even point. Cash flow 7/28/2017 28
  29. 29. Probability and Impact Matrix (Heat Map) 7/28/2017 29 ‫لون‬‫المنطقة‬‫يدل‬‫على‬‫مستوي‬‫أولوية‬‫مواجهة‬‫المخاطر‬:‫فالمنطقة‬‫الحمراء‬‫تعني‬‫أهم‬‫ية‬ ‫كبيرة‬‫واﻷصفر‬‫هو‬‫أهمية‬‫متوسطة‬،‫واﻷخضر‬‫هو‬‫أهمية‬‫منخفضة‬. ‫على‬‫سبيل‬،‫المثال‬‫احد‬‫المخاطر‬‫احتمال‬"‫معتدل‬=Medium"‫وذا‬‫تأثير‬"‫عالي‬=High" ‫يقع‬‫في‬‫المنطقة‬‫الحمراء‬.)‫درجة‬‫المخاطرة‬‫فيها‬‫هي‬٣×٤=١٢(. ‫يتم‬‫تحديد‬‫درجات‬‫اﻹستجابة‬‫تبعا‬‫لدرجة‬‫المخاطرة‬The Risk Score.
  30. 30. Risk Register 7/28/2017 30
  31. 31. 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis • Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis is the process of numerically analyzing the effect of identified risks on overall project objectives. 7/28/2017 31 1. Plan Risk Management 2. Identify Risks 3. Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis 4. Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis 5. Plan Risk Responses 6. Control Risks
  32. 32. ‫للمخاطر‬ ‫الكمي‬ ‫التحليل‬ Quantitative Risk Analysis ١-‫التعريف‬ ‫عند‬ ‫عددية‬ ‫بقيمة‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫لتقدير‬ ‫وسيلة‬ ‫هو‬ ‫للمخاطر‬ ‫الكمي‬ ‫التحليل‬‫المشروع‬ ‫أن‬ ‫و‬ ‫حدوثها‬ ‫احتمال‬ ‫أهداف‬ ‫يلبي‬ ‫سوف‬‫ه‬‫الزمن‬ ‫و‬ ‫التكلفة‬ ‫حيث‬ ‫من‬. ٢-‫التحليل‬ ‫أهداف‬‫الكمى‬‫للمخاطر‬ ‫المحددة‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫أهداف‬ ‫تحقيق‬ ‫احتمال‬ ‫ويقيم‬ ‫للمشروع‬ ‫المحتملة‬ ‫النتائج‬ ‫يقيس‬. ‫الكمي‬ ‫النهج‬ ‫يوفر‬‫رقمية‬ ‫محددات‬‫عدم‬ ‫هناك‬ ‫يكون‬ ‫عندما‬ ‫القرارات‬ ‫ﻻتخاذ‬‫م‬ ‫امر‬ ‫في‬ ‫شك‬ ‫و‬ ‫تأكد‬‫ا‬. ‫و‬ ،‫للتحقيق‬ ‫وقابلة‬ ‫واقعية‬ ‫تكلفة‬ ‫يخلق‬‫إعادة‬‫الجدول‬‫ة‬‫الزمني‬‫ل‬ ‫افضل‬ ‫بشكل‬ ‫ة‬‫نطاق‬‫العمل‬‫تحقيق‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﻷهداف‬. 7/28/2017 32
  33. 33. ‫للمخاطر‬ ‫الكمي‬ ‫التحليل‬ Quantitative Risk Analysis ‫يتم‬ ‫كيف‬‫اعداد‬‫التحليل‬‫الكمى‬‫للمخاطر‬ ،‫للمخاطر‬ ‫الكمي‬ ‫التحليل‬ ‫إجراء‬ ‫أجل‬ ‫من‬‫توفر‬ ‫من‬ ‫ﻻبد‬،‫عالية‬ ‫جودة‬ ‫ذات‬ ‫بيانات‬ ‫وهذا‬‫يخلق‬‫متطور‬ ‫مشروع‬ ‫نموذج‬‫ﻹنتاج‬‫المشروع‬ ‫لمخاطر‬ ‫أولوية‬ ‫قوائم‬‫بشكل‬ ‫نموذجي‬)‫إجراء‬ ‫من‬ ‫عادة‬‫ال‬‫النوعي‬ ‫تحليل‬‫للمخاطر‬( ‫التحليل‬ ‫من‬ ‫اﻻنتهاء‬ ‫عند‬ ‫و‬‫الكمى‬‫للمخاطر‬: ‫تحديد‬ ‫نستطيع‬‫اﻻجابة‬‫هذه‬ ‫على‬‫اﻻسئله‬‫؟‬ ‫ماهي‬‫إحتماﻻت‬‫المحدد‬ ‫الموعد‬ ‫في‬ ‫الحالية‬ ‫الخطة‬ ‫تحقيق‬‫و‬/‫الميزاني‬ ‫ضمن‬ ‫أو‬‫ة‬ ‫المقدرة؟‬ ‫الطوارئ‬ ‫احتياطي‬ ‫إلى‬ ‫حاجة‬ ‫هناك‬ ‫هل‬‫و‬‫الوقت‬ ‫من‬ ‫مطلوب‬ ‫كم‬‫و‬‫؟‬ ‫المال‬ 7/28/2017 33
  34. 34. Risk Register 7/28/2017 34
  35. 35. 7/28/2017 35 Quantitative Risk Analysis Tools and Techniques 1. Data Gathering and representation techniques • Interviewing • Probability distribution 2. Quantitative risk analysis and modeling techniques • Sensitivity analysis )‫مثﻼ‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫على‬ ‫تأثيرها‬ ‫و‬ ‫بخطوه‬ ‫المخاطرخطوه‬ ‫انواع‬ ‫دراسة‬:‫العماله‬ ‫أسعار‬ ‫زيادة‬ ‫مخاطر‬( • Expected monetary value analysis ( EMV ) )‫سيناريوهات‬ ‫عده‬ ‫طريق‬ ‫عن‬ ‫المتوقعه‬ ‫المالية‬ ‫القيمه‬( • Modeling and simulation )‫مونتكارلو‬ ‫طريق‬ ‫عن‬ ‫المحاكاه‬ ‫و‬ ‫النمذجة‬(
  36. 36. ٠٧–‫ادوات‬‫للمخاطر‬ ‫الكمي‬ ‫التحليل‬  Quantitative risk and opportunity assessment provides a numerical value measuring the effect expected from risks and opportunities. (ICB)  Monte Carlo analysis and decision trees and scenario planning are examples of powerful quantitative risk and opportunity assessment techniques. (ICB) 7/28/2017 36
  37. 37. Decision Tree (Expected Monitory Value) – Choosing Sub-Contractor 7/28/2017 37 Hiring Sub-C. For Insufficient Labor Low Bidder Bad Qualification High Bidder Reliable Delay 12 Days + Good Quality On Time + Bad Quality 60% 10% Delay 4 Days On Time 20% 80% Decision EMV = -2440 (The Larger Of -3240 & -2440) 110 - 114.6= -4.6K -2760 110 – 110 = 0 110 – 115.2 = -4.2K 110 – 112 = -2K 0 -840 -1600 EMV =-3240 EMV = -2440 Outcome Probability • Over Head 800SR/Day • Budget Cost = 110 SR/CM • Selling Price = 125 SR/CM • Qt’y = 1000 CM Delay 7Days + Bad Quality 30% 110 – 111.6 = -1.6K -480 105 SR/CM 112 SR/CM 114.6=800x12+105x1000 111.6=800x7+105x1000+1000repair 111.6=800x4+112x1000+0 repair
  38. 38. Modeling and simulation and Probability Distribution 7/28/2017 38
  39. 39. QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS VERSUS QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS QUALITATIVE QUANTITATIVE Risk-Level Project-Level Subjective evaluation of probability and impact Probabilistic estimates of time and cost Quick and easy to perform Time consuming Text analysis Data analysis No special software or tools required May require specialized tools 7/28/2017 39
  40. 40. 11.5 Plan Risk Responses • Plan Risk Responses is the process of developing options and actions to enhance opportunities and to reduce threats to project objectives. • The key benefit of this process is that it addresses the risks by their priority, inserting resources and activities into the budget, schedule and project management plan as needed. 7/28/2017 40
  41. 41. ٠٨–‫اﻹستحابة‬ ‫للمخاطر‬ ‫للمخاطر‬ ‫اﻻستجابة‬ ‫أ‬ ‫من‬ ،‫اﻹجراءات‬ ‫وتحديد‬ ،‫اﻻستراتيجية‬ ‫الخيارات‬ ‫وضع‬ ‫عملية‬ ‫هو‬‫جل‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫ﻷهداف‬ ‫التهديدات‬ ‫من‬ ‫والحد‬ ‫الفرص‬ ‫تعزيز‬. ‫تن‬ ‫اجل‬ ‫من‬ ‫المسؤولية‬ ‫لتحمل‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫فريق‬ ‫أعضاء‬ ‫تهيئة‬ ‫يتم‬‫فيذ‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫و‬ ‫التهديدات‬ ‫مواجهة‬ ‫و‬ ‫لﻼستجابة‬ ‫المحدد‬ ‫اﻹستراتيجية‬. ‫للمخاطر‬ ‫اﻻستجابة‬ ‫تتضمن‬: ‫المخاطر‬ ‫اولويات‬ ‫و‬ ‫سريعة‬ ‫استجابة‬ ‫تستدعي‬ ‫التي‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫تحديد‬. ‫المخاطر‬ ‫لكل‬ ‫اﻷفضل‬ ‫اﻹستراتيجية‬ ‫تحديد‬. ‫المخاطر‬ ‫عن‬ ‫للمسئول‬ ‫إجراء‬ ‫تعيين‬Risk Owner‫وقوعها‬ ‫احتمال‬ ‫من‬ ‫للحد‬ ‫و‬/‫خطر‬ ‫كل‬ ‫آثار‬ ‫أو‬.‫للمشروع‬ ‫المتاحة‬ ‫بالخبرات‬ ‫يستعين‬ ‫أن‬ ‫ويمكن‬. ‫اﻷمر‬ ‫لزم‬ ‫إذا‬ ،‫إضافية‬ ‫مساندة‬ ‫و‬ ‫دعم‬ ‫طلب‬. ‫العمل‬ ‫فريق‬ ‫لدي‬ ‫المقبولة‬ ‫اﻹستراتيجية‬ ‫كانت‬ ‫إذا‬)PRMT(‫الخطر‬ ‫قبول‬ ‫هي‬ ACCEPTED )(‫خطة‬ ‫ﻹعداد‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫عن‬ ‫للمسئول‬ ‫اﻹجراءات‬ ‫أحد‬ ‫يندب‬ ‫أن‬ ‫للطوارئ‬. 7/28/2017 41
  42. 42. 11.6 Control Risks • Control Risks is the process of implementing risk response plans, tracking identified risks, monitoring residual risks, identifying new risks, and evaluating risk process effectiveness throughout the project. • The key benefit of this process is that it improves efficiency of the risk approach throughout the project life cycle to continuously optimize risk responses. • Risk monitoring and control continues for the life of the project. • The list of project risks changes as the project matures, new risks develop, or anticipated risks disappear. Risk ratings and prioritizations can also change during the project lifecycle. 7/28/2017 42 ‫تعريف‬: ‫المشروع‬ ‫على‬ ‫تأثيرها‬ ‫و‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫تعقب‬ ‫مستوى‬ ‫هو‬-‫مراقبة‬ ‫عليها‬ ‫والسيطرة‬‫خﻼل‬‫المشروع‬ ‫حياة‬ ‫دورة‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫إدارة‬ ‫فريق‬ ‫مهام‬: ‫وتشمل‬‫المخاطر‬ ‫إدارة‬ ‫فريق‬ ‫مهام‬PRMT‫يلي‬ ‫ما‬ ‫استعراض‬: ‫وإضاف‬ ،‫حديثا‬ ‫للمخاطرالناشئة‬ ‫اﻻستجابة‬ ‫إجراءات‬ ‫وتخطيط‬ ‫وتحليل‬ ‫تحديد‬‫إلى‬ ‫تها‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫سجل‬. ‫فعاليتها‬ ‫وتقييم‬ ،‫اﻻستجابة‬ ‫إجراءات‬ ‫تنفيذ‬ ‫مراجعة‬. ،‫الحالية‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫تقييم‬ ‫إعادة‬‫ال‬ ‫و‬‫المفعو‬ ‫سارية‬ ‫تزال‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫الفرضيات‬ ‫من‬ ‫تحقق‬‫وتعديل‬ ،‫ل‬ ‫ال‬‫سابقة‬.
  43. 43. ٠٩–‫الرقاب‬ ‫و‬ ‫السيطرة‬‫ة‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫علي‬ ‫المرحلة‬ ‫هذه‬ ‫في‬ ‫الضرورة‬ ‫حسب‬ ‫التقييم‬. ‫عن‬ ‫المسئول‬ ‫دعم‬ ‫و‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫معالجة‬ ‫و‬ ‫لمواجهة‬ ‫إضافية‬ ‫إجراءات‬ ‫تعيين‬ ‫التنفيذ‬. ‫فرصة‬ ‫انعدمت‬ ‫أو‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫علي‬ ‫تأثيرها‬ ‫إنقضي‬ ‫التي‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫إستبعاد‬‫حدوثها‬ ‫مست‬ ‫إلى‬ ‫وصلت‬ ‫قد‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫في‬ ‫المتبقية‬ ‫آثارها‬ ‫تعتبر‬ ‫التي‬ ‫تلك‬ ‫أو‬‫مقبول‬ ‫وى‬. ‫لعملية‬ ‫اﻷخرى‬ ‫المقاصد‬‫المخاطر‬ ‫مراقبة‬ ‫و‬ ‫السيطرة‬‫تحدي‬ ‫هي‬‫د‬: ‫إمكانية‬ ‫و‬ ‫للمخاطر‬ ‫التقييم‬ ‫حاﻻت‬ ‫في‬ ‫تغيير‬ ‫يوجد‬ ‫هل‬‫استبعاده‬‫ا؟‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫إدارة‬ ‫وإجراءات‬ ‫سياسات‬ ‫اتباع‬ ‫يجري‬ ‫هل‬‫ﻻ؟‬ ‫ام‬ ‫الي‬ ‫احتياج‬ ‫يوجد‬ ‫هل‬‫تعديل‬‫خطة‬‫طوارئ‬ ‫احتياطي‬‫ا‬‫لمو‬ ‫الزمني‬ ‫الجدول‬ ‫و‬ ‫لتكلفة‬‫ا‬‫ئ‬‫مة‬ ‫تقييم‬‫الوضع‬‫الحالي‬‫ل‬‫لمخاطر‬‫؟‬. ‫تنطوي‬‫عملية‬‫و‬ ‫السيطرة‬‫المخاطر‬ ‫مراقبة‬/‫اختيار‬ ‫على‬ ‫الفرص‬/‫التغ‬‫الي‬ ‫يير‬ ‫وتنفيذ‬ ،‫البديلة‬ ‫اﻻستراتيجيات‬‫خطط‬‫اﻹجر‬ ‫واتخاذ‬ ،‫بديلة‬ ‫طوارئ‬‫اءات‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫إدارة‬ ‫خطة‬ ‫وتعديل‬ ،‫التصحيحية‬. 7/28/2017 43
  44. 44. Risk Review and Updating 7/28/2017 44
  45. 45. Lessons Learned 7/28/2017 45 ‫عندما‬‫ينتهي‬‫او‬‫يستبعد‬‫اي‬‫من‬‫المخاطر‬،‫فإن‬‫فريق‬ ‫العمل‬PRMT‫يتوجب‬‫عليه‬‫مراجعة‬‫تاريخ‬‫كل‬‫خطر‬‫لتسجيل‬‫م‬‫ا‬ ‫هي‬‫الدروس‬‫المستفادة‬‫بشأن‬‫عمليات‬‫إدارة‬‫المخاطر‬ ‫المستخدمة‬. ‫و‬‫يلزم‬‫فريق‬‫العمل‬‫أن‬‫يسأل‬‫نفسه‬: "‫ما‬‫الذي‬‫كان‬‫يتوجب‬‫علينا‬‫عمله‬‫على‬‫نحو‬‫مختلف‬‫و‬‫لماذا؟‬" ‫و‬‫من‬‫ثم‬‫فإن‬‫مدير‬‫مخاطر‬‫المشروع‬‫عليه‬‫إجراء‬‫المراجعة‬ ‫الدورية‬‫لكافة‬‫الدروس‬‫المستفادة‬‫مع‬‫فريق‬‫العمل‬PRMT.
  46. 46. References: 1. ICB - IPMA (International Competence Baseline Version 3.0). 2. Developing the Risk Register-Ahmed Said. 3. Practice Standard for Project Risk Management - PMI. 4. Scalable Project Risk Management- Carlton Team. 5. PMBOK 5th Edition. 6. Risk Management And Construction-Roger Flangan. 7/28/2017 46
  47. 47. ‫ن‬‫الجميع‬ ‫به‬ ‫ينفع‬ ‫ان‬ ‫رجو‬-‫تحيات‬ ‫خالص‬ ‫مع‬‫نا‬ 7/28/2017 47 ‫للتطبيق؟‬ ‫جاهز‬ ‫انت‬ ‫هل‬
  48. 48. Project Risk Management Plan Date of Issue 03/01/1437 (Hijri) – 03/11/2015 (Gregorian) General Report Form PMO-FM-RP-06(00)
  49. 49. Risk Managment Project Template Issue Date: 15 December 2016 Page 2 of 9 Contents 1  Introduction 3  1.1  Purpose of the Risk Management Plan 3  2  Risk management Procedure 3  2.1  Process 3  2.2  Roles and Responsibilities 3  2.3  Risk Identification 3  2.4  Risk Analysis 4  2.5  Risk Response Planning 5  2.6  Risk Monitoring, Controlling and Reporting 5  2.7  Risk Contingency Budgeting 6  3  Tools and Practices 6  4  Closing a Risk 6  5  Lessons Learned 6  6  Attachment A 7  6.1  Risk Management Plan Approval 7  7  Attachment B 8  7.1  Register of Reference Documents 8  8  Attachment C 9  8.1  Schedule of Key Terms 9
  50. 50. Risk Managment Project Template Issue Date: 15 December 2016 Page 3 of 9 1 Introduction 1.1 Purpose of the Risk Management Plan A risk is an event or condition that, if it occurs, could have a positive or negative effect on a project’s objectives. Risk Management is the process of identifying, assessing, responding to, monitoring and controlling, and reporting risks. This Risk Management Plan defines how risks associated with the project will be identified, analysed, and managed. It outlines how risk management activities will be performed, recorded, and monitored throughout the lifecycle of the project and provides templates and practices for recording and prioritizing risks by the project management team. 2 Risk management Procedure 2.1 Process The Planning Manager working with the project team will ensure that risks are actively identified, analysed, and managed throughout the life of the project. Risks will be identified as early as possible in the project so as to minimize their impact. The steps for accomplishing this are outlined in the following sections. The Planning Manager will serve as the Risk Manager for this project. 2.2 Roles and Responsibilities Role Responsibilities Risk Manager The Risk Manager is a member of the Integrated Project Team (IPT). The Risk Manager determines if the Risk is unique, identifies risk interdependencies across projects, verifies if risk is internal or external to project and assigns risk classification and tracking number. During the life of the project, they continually monitor the projects for potential risks. Integrated Project Team The IPT is responsible for identifying the risks, the dependencies of the risk within the project, the context and consequence of the risk. They are also responsible for determining the impact, timing, and priority of the risk as well as formulating the risk statements. Risk Owner(s) The risk owner determines which risks require mitigation and contingency plans; he generates the risk mitigation and contingency strategies and performs a cost benefit analysis of the proposed strategies. The risk owner is responsible for monitoring and controlling and updating the status of the risk throughout the project lifecycle. The risk owner can be a member of the project team. Other Key Stakeholders The other stakeholders assist in identifying and determining the context, consequence, impact, timing, and priority of the risk. 2.3 Risk Identification Risk identification will involve the project team, appropriate stakeholders, and will include an evaluation of environmental factors, organizational culture and the project management plan including the project scope, schedule, cost, or quality. Careful attention will be given to the project deliverables, assumptions, constraints, WBS, cost/effort estimates, resource plan, and other key project documents.
  51. 51. Risk Managment Project Template Issue Date: 15 December 2016 Page 4 of 9 2.3.1 Methods for Risk Identification The following methods will be used to assist in the identification of risks - Brainstorming - Interviewing - SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) - Diagramming A Risk Management Register will be generated and updated as needed and will be stored electronically in the project library. 2.4 Risk Analysis All risks identified will be assessed to identify the range of possible project outcomes. Risks will be prioritized by their level of importance. 2.4.1 Qualitative Risk Analysis The probability and impact of occurrence for each identified risk will be assessed by the Risk Manager, with input from the project team using the following approach: Probability - Very High - Greater than 80% probability of occurrence - High – Between 60% and 80% probability of occurrence - Medium – Between 30% and 60% probability of occurrence - Low – Between 10% and 30% probability of occurrence - Very Low - Below 10% probability of occurrence Impact - Very High - Risk that has the potential to have a critical impact on project cost, project schedule or performance - High – Risk that has the potential to greatly impact project cost, project schedule or performance - Medium – Risk that has the potential to slightly impact project cost, project schedule or performance - Low – Risk that has relatively little impact on cost, schedule or performance - Very Low - Risk that has negligible impact on cost, schedule or performance This information will be input into the Risk Management Register for each identified risk. Risks that fall within the RED and YELLOW zones will have risk response plan which may include both a risk response strategy and a risk contingency plan. 2.4.2 Quantitative Risk Analysis Analysis of risk events that have been prioritized using the qualitative risk analysis process and their effect on project activities will be estimated, a numerical rating is applied to each risk based on quantitative analysis, and then documented in this section of the risk management plan. VH H X M L VL VL L M H VH Impact Probability
  52. 52. Risk Managment Project Template Issue Date: 15 December 2016 Page 5 of 9 2.5 Risk Response Planning Each major risk (those falling in the Red & Yellow zones) will be assigned to a risk owner for monitoring and controlling purposes to ensure that each risk is given the appropriate attention and action. For each risk, one of the following approaches will be selected to address it: - Avoid – Eliminate the threat or condition or to protect the project objectives from its impact by eliminating the cause - Mitigate – Identify ways to reduce the probability or the impact of the risk - Accept – Nothing will be done - Contingency –Define actions to be taken in response to risks - Transfer – Shift the consequence of a risk to a third party together with ownership of the response by making another party responsible for the risk (buy insurance, outsourcing, etc.) For each risk that will be mitigated, the project team will identify ways to prevent the risk from occurring or reduce its impact or probability of occurring. This may include prototyping, adding tasks to the project schedule, adding resources, etc. Any secondary risks that result from risk mitigation response will be documented and follow the risk management protocol as the primary risks. For each major risk that is to be mitigated or that is accepted, a course of action will be outlined in the event that the risk does materialize in order to minimize its impact. 2.6 Risk Monitoring, Controlling and Reporting The level of risk on a project will be tracked, monitored, controlled and reported throughout the project lifecycle. Risks will be assigned a risk owner(s) who will track, monitor and control and report on the status and effectiveness of each risk response action to the Risk Manager and Risk Management Team on weekly basics A “Risk Management Register” will be maintained by the Risk Manager or IPT and will be reported as a component of the project status reporting process for this project. All project change requests will be analysed for their possible impact to the project risks. As Risk Events occur, the list will be re-prioritized during weekly reviews and the Risk Management Register will reflect any and all changes including secondary and residual risks. Management will be notified of important changes to risk status as a component to the Monthly Project Status Report. The Risk Manager will: - Review, reevaluate, and modify the probability and impact for each risk item weekly. - Analyze any new risks that are identified and add these items to the Risk Management Register. - Monitor and control risks that have been identified - Review and update the Risk Management Register. - Escalate issues/ problems to management.
  53. 53. Risk Managment Project Template Issue Date: 15 December 2016 Page 6 of 9 The Risk Owner will: - Help develop the risk response and risk trigger and carry out the execution of the risk response, if a risk event occurs. - Participate in the review, re-evaluation, and modification of the probability and impact for each risk item on a weekly basis. - Identify and participate in the analysis of any new risks that occur. - Escalate issues/problems to Risk Manager that, o Significantly impact the projects triple constraint or trigger another risk event to occur. o Require action prior to the next weekly review o Risk strategy is not effective or productive causing the need to execute the contingency plan. Risk activities will be recorded in the Risk Management Register. 2.7 Risk Contingency Budgeting A risk contingency budget shall be established to prepare in advance for the possibility that some risks will not be managed successfully. The risk contingency budget will contain funds that can be tapped so that your project doesn't go over budget. 3 Tools and Practices A Risk Management Register will be maintained by the Risk Manager and will be reviewed as a standing agenda item for project team meetings. Risk activities will be recorded in the Risk Management Register. 4 Closing a Risk A risk will be considered closed when it meets the following criteria: - Risk is no longer valid - Risk Event has occurred - Risk is no longer considered a risk - Risk closure at the direction of the Risk Manager 5 Lessons Learned The lessons learned will be captured and recorded.
  54. 54. Risk Managment Project Template Issue Date: 15 December 2016 Page 7 of 9 6 Attachment A 6.1 Risk Management Plan Approval The undersigned acknowledge that they have reviewed the Risk Management Plan and agree with the information presented within this document. Changes to this Risk Management Plan will be coordinated with, and approved by, the undersigned, or their designated representatives. Signature: Date: Print Name: Title: Role: Signature: Date: Print Name: Title: Role: Signature: Date: Print Name: Title: Role:
  55. 55. Risk Managment Project Template Issue Date: 15 December 2016 Page 8 of 9 7 Attachment B 7.1 Register of Reference Documents The following table summarizes the documents referenced in this document. Document Name Description Location
  56. 56. Risk Managment Project Template Issue Date: 15 December 2016 Page 9 of 9 8 Attachment C 8.1 Schedule of Key Terms The following table provides definitions and explanations for terms and acronyms relevant to the content presented within this document. Term Definition
  57. 57. 1 Risk Form PROJECT DETAILS© Project Name: Name of the project to which the risk relates Al-Manar Specialized Hospital 500 Bed Project Manager: Name of the project manager responsible for mitigating the risk Eng. xxxxxxxxx RISK DETAILS Risk ID: Unique identifier assigned to this risk C-120001/R11/004 Raised By: Name of person who is raising the risk Eng. YYYYYYY Date Raised: Date on which this form is completed 04 – 04 - 2016 Risk Description: Add a brief description of the risk identified and its likely impact on the project (e.g. scope, resources, deliverables, timescales and/or budgets) Seasonal Annual Dust Storms - Climateatic Conditions Cause 2monthes/year (Delay of covering the building will cause delay finishes activity. Also Facades will be delayed.) Risk/opportunity is occurring if the Revised Noise Study indicates the additional wall height is warranted. Risk Likelihood: Describe and rate the likelihood of the risk eventuating (i.e. Low, Medium or High) High Risk Impact: Describe and rate the impact on the project if the risk eventuates (i.e. Low, Medium or High) High (+) Our price is high/SM RISK MITIGATION Recommended Preventative Actions: Add a brief description of any actions that should be taken to prevent the risk from eventuating Change workday hours start at 4am:10am. Add in an additional 250 hours in WBS 165 and all sub-activities. Recommended Contingent Actions: Add a brief description of any actions that should be taken, in the event that the risk happens, to minimize its impact on the project an additional noise study to analyze 5-meter-high wall at this location. APPROVAL DETAILS© Supporting Documentation: Reference any supporting documentation used to substantiate this risk 1- C120001-CE-127 2- Risk Register RR-Ver.01/Rev02/4416 3- Consultant Letter ME-128 4- Hydraulic & Storm study a Rev01 5- Meteorological report Signature: Date: _______________________ ___/___/____ PLEASE FORWARD THIS FORM TO THE PROJECT MANAGER
  58. 58. 2 ‫اﻟﻌﻮاﺻﻒ‬ ‫اﺛﻨﺎء‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻮﻗﻊ‬ ‫اﻟﻌﻮاﺻﻒ‬ ‫اﺛﻨﺎء‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻮﻗﻊ‬‫اﻟﻌﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﻓﺮﯾﻖ‬ ‫ﻣﻐﺎدرة‬ ‫و‬
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  60. 60. 4 ‫اﻟﻌﻮاﺻﻒ‬ ‫ھﺪوء‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺪ‬ ‫ﺻﻮرة‬
  61. 61. 5 ‫اﻟﻤﺤﯿﻄﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻄﺮق‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺘﺤﺮﻛﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺮﻣﺎل‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﻟﻜﺜﺒﺎن‬ ‫ﺣﺠﻢ‬
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  70. 70. Minimum 9 Date Maximum 225 Actual 99 Item No. Risk Birth Date / Project Phase Status Risk Category Risk Event Cause Effect Threator Opportunit Type Risk Trigger Probability Impact Risk Score (Min = 1) (Max = 25) Probability (%) Impact($ ordays) Effect ($ordays) Response Strategy Response Actions including advantages and disadvantages Affected WBS Tasks Responsible Entity Interval or Milestone Check Status: Date and Review Comments VH H M X L VL VL L M H VH VH H X M L VL VL L M H VH VH X H M L VL VL L M H VH VH X H M L VL VL L M H VH VH H M X L VL VL L M H VH VH X H M L VL VL L M H VH VH H M L VL VL L M H VH VH H M L VL VL L M H VH VH H M L VL VL L M H VH 2 Active 4 Active Mitigate Follow up with Owner and urge them to expadite the matter ASAP. Eng.?????? Weekly Owner WeeklyFollow Up with Owner 6-03-2016- Consultant Site PM returned with comments. Revise and re submit asap Consultant site and HQ staff to expadite review of the savings and deficits report asap. WeeklyMitigate 7-03-2016 - Civil Defence visit to site. Mitigate Weekly follow up with Civil Defence and in parrell request letters of support from Owner. PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT REGISTER - Project Name - Hospital - 200 Bed & Housing CONTRACTOR : Company Name 15/12/2016 Impact Probability 0 0 Impact 0 Probability Medium Medium 9 8 5 Active Savings & Deficit Calculations Construction Impact 6 Active 7 Owner Delays Productivity , Time, Performance Threat Very High Probability Very HighDelay in Invoice Payments Impact Transfer Probability External Site PMDelay in completion Delay in establish total project cost and issueing of Cost Plan for the project Threat Probability Impact 9 25 0 0 Work Disruption, Low Productivity, Document of Ownership (Not complying with actual area/ coordinates) External Weekly Time, Performance and Systems delivery Threat Very High High Probability Civil Defence Approvals External Delay in Approvals by Civil Defence for (FA, FF and Fire Zones, Exits …..) 20 Impact Eng………………… ….. Monitoring and Control Time Delay to the Project Qualitative Risk Assessment 9 Construction Active 6-03-2016 - PO to be raised and to site of windows, sub contractor to be established. 1-3-2016- Letter sent to Owner Directorite by Owner representative. Impact High High Probability Mistake in Owner SAK submittal and delay in correcting mistake Impact Mitigate Close Buidling before the season, Increase productivity, Work in shifts during storm season. Site PM Bi-Weekly Time Delay to the Project Threat 16 20 Threat 0 Weekly 6-3-2016- Meeting held, Process and procedure in place. Mitigate Eng. ………. Impact Probability Risk Matrix 1 However the Risk is time dependant therefore the risk score & probability will increase over time. The chosen method of mitigation of this risk is to reduce the risk impact by providing clarification on the matter and implementing a process/procedure by which full and clear coordination shall be carried out. Threat Medium Medium Probability Very High High Delay in Owner Approval/Decision Work on hold for Clinic Areas by Owner 3 Active Seasonal Annual Dust Storms Environment Climateatic Conditions 100 50 0 0 60 54 403200 362880 0 50% 70% 90% 90% 50% 90% 0% Risk Response PlanQuantitative Analysis Project Risk Score 165 0 0 0% 0% Risk Identification If it continued up to end of the project or the last 6 months it will delay the building complete finishes and usage 2monthes/year (Delay of covering the building will cause delay finishes activity. Also Facades will be delayed.) Time Scope Time Cost Time Cost Time 15/12/2016 Page 1 of 1 PMO-REG-CM-01(00)

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