Presentacion de 11th Asian Maize Conference which took place in Beijing, China from November 7 – 11, 2011.

1. Maize Growth in East and South-east
Asia – Challenges and Opportunities
Zhang Shihuang, Qiu Huanguang, Lu Kaiyv,
Ci Xiaoke, Li Mingshun, Zhang Degui,
Liang Xiaoling, Xu Jiashun
National Maize Industrial Technology RD Center, MOA
Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China
cshzhang2000@yahoo.com.cn
Chinese Academy of Agricultural

2. in Asia
We Are Facing the Same
Challenges
demand and imports
production
breeding
seed industry
Chinese Academy of Agricultural

3. Maize production in East and SE
Asia
Chinese Academy of Agricultural

4. Maize production in East and SE Asia (1961-2009)
180
Maize production
in Asia has been
Maize out put (million ton)
160 y = 3.0 x + 6
R2 = 0.96
140
accelerating
120
100
during the past 2
80
y = 3.0 x + 3.9
R2 = 0.96
decades due to
60
y = 0.54x + 1.4
the increasing
40 R2 = 0.91
and diversifying
20
0
demands for
maize
61
64
67
70
73
76
79
82
85
88
91
94
97
00
03
06
09
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
Eastern Asia South-Eastern Asia China

5. Maize Production in East and SE Asia
other 31.58
13%
SE Asia 36.83
16%
E Asia
165.89 71%
Asia
29%
71%

6. Maize production (million ton) in East and SE Asia (2009)
Total maize output in Asia reached 234 million tons in 2009
accounted for one-fourth of the world total production
900.0 818.82
800.0 East Asia is the
Maize production (million ton)
700.0 main producer of
600.0 maize in Asia
500.0
400.0 166 million tons
300.0 234.30 in 2009
200.0
165.89 164.11
100.0 36.83 20.2% of the
0.0 world’s total
World Asia Eastern South- China maize production
Asia Eastern
Asia

7. Maize production (million ton) in different areas
•Maize production in
900.00
800.00
East Asia comes
Maize output (million ton)
700.00
600.00 mainly from China
500.00
400.00
•accounted for 99%
300.00 of East Asia’s total
200.00
out put and 20% of
100.00
the world output in
0.00
South-
World Asia Eastern Asia China
1961 205.03 31.60 19.40
Eastern Asia
4.71 18.03
2009
1990 483.34 132.47 101.33 16.44 97.21
2009 818.82 234.30 165.89 36.83 164.11

8. Maize Production in East and SE Asia
• Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand,
and Vietnam are some other main
production countries of maize in
Southeast Asia

9. Increment of maize production in the world, East and
SE Asia during 1961-2009 and 1990-2009
800 755
World
the average
682
growth rate of
700 Eastern Asia
South-Eastern Asia
Increment (%)
600
500 maize
400
299
production in
East and SE
300
200
Asia is faster
124
100 69 64
0 than that of the
1961-2009 1990-2009
world average

10. Maize Production in East and SE Asia
• 1961~2009
• maize production and area increased by
2.99 times and 50% in the world
• but by 7.55 times and 101% in East Asia
• and by 6.82 times and 88% in SE Asia

11. Maize Production in East and SE Asia
• The growth rates of both yield and area have
been slowing down in the last 2 decades
• maize production increased by 69% in the
world, but increased by 64% and 124% in East
and SE Asia
• Maize area increased 21% in the world, but
43% and 7% in East Asia and SE Asia

12. Maize yield in East and SE Asia (1961-2009)
6.0
y = 0.03x + 4.58
5.0 The trend of
Maize yield ( Ton/ha)
4.0
maize yield
y = 0.04x + 4.59
y=0.11x+1.0 change in
3.0
y=0.11x+0.974 East Asia was
2.0 y = 0.1x + 1.64
contrary to
1.0
y=0.03x+0.790
that in SE
0.0 Asia
Eastern Asia South-Eastern Asia China

13. Maize Yield in East and SE Asia
• Maize yield increased faster before 1990,
and have been slowing down since then
in East Asia (esp in China)
• However, it has increased faster in SE
Asia after 1990
• So the gap between East and SE Asia
has been being narrower after 1990

14. Maize Yield in East and SE Asia
• Maize yield increment was due to the:
– adoption of hybrids
– increase of inputs

15. Maize Yield in East Asia
• In East Asia (especially in China)
• maize yield increased by 220% with an
annual gain of 104 kg/ha during 1969-
1989
• but increased by 15% with an annual
gain of 35 kg/ha during 1990-2009

16. Maize Yield in SE Asia
• In SE Asia
• Maize yield increased by 99% with an
annual gain of 31 kg/ha before 1990s
• but after that, increased by 110% with
an annual gain of 99 kg/ha

17. Maize Yield in East and SE Asia
• Both the growth rate and the absolute
growth of maize yields in decades
showed a clear difference between East
and SE Asia

18. Yield gains of maize decreasing in China
SE Asia
4.4%
3.8% 2000
East Asia 2.7%
1990
2.3%
5.9% 1980
1.9%
1960 1970
4.5%
1960
1970
3.2%
1980
0.2%
1990 1.7%
2000
(Data from FAO)
Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences

19. Maize production in China
Chinese Academy of Agricultural

20. kg/ha Maize yields since 1950s
Single-cross hybrids
b=23
b=126 Stress tolerance
OPVs
b=14
b=89
Double-cross hybrids
Year
Chinese Academy of Agricultural

21. Maize Production in China
• Maize yield in China increased by 3.4
times, with an annual gain of 93 kg/ha
during the past 5 decades

22. Maize Production in China(略)
• It should be noted that maize yield in China
increased at 104 kg/ha/year before 1990s,
which was even higher than that in Argentina
• but after 1990, maize yield increased at 38
kg/ha/year which was much lower than the
growth of 152 kg/ha/year in US and 180
kg/ha/year in Argentina
• it was even lower than the gains in Vietnam,
Myanmar, Indonesia and Brazil (more than
100 kg/ha/year)

23. Maize yields in US, Argentina and China
12
10
y=0.15x+7.0
8
y=0.11x+4.0 y=0.18x+3.8
6
4
y=0.7x+1.6 y=0.04x+4.6
2
y=0.11x+1.0
0
America Argentina China

24. Maize Production in SE Asia
• On the contrary, maize yields have
increased sharply since the mid-1990s in
several SE Asian countries
• the annual gains of maize yield in
Indonesia, Vietnam and Myanmar are
4.1%，4.6% and 6.7%
• and annual gains of 107 kg/ha，143
kg/ha and 110 kg/ha

25. Maize Trade in the Region

26. Maize Trade in the Region
• Over the past half-century, the world
maize trade has increased significantly
• East Asia has been importing maize for
a long time, and the imports continue to
increase
• but some of the SE Asian countries
turned into maize exporters in the mid-
1980s

27. East Asia is a Net Importer (2009)
2008
54970-
other part of the word
9021-
Korea
16460-
Japan
220
China
-60000 -50000 -40000 -30000 -20000 -10000 0 10000
2008

28. East Asia is a Net Importer (2009)
South-east
Asia
7%
13%
Japan
52%
South Korea
28%

29. Maize Trade in the Region （略）
• Japan, Korea and China were the main
importers
• Maize imports in Japan (16-17 million tons
annually) accounted for more than half of
Asia’s total imports
• Korea (8-9 million tons) accounted for 28% of
Asia’s total imports

30. Maize Trade in the Region
• Imports of Japan and South Korea have
been relatively stable since 1990s
• China was a net export country in most
years
• but its export has been steadily
declining in the last decade
• China has become a net importer of
maize in 2010 (1.5 million tons)

31. Conclusion--1
• Asia is a big importer of maize
• Demand for maize will continue to
increase in Asia

32. Increase the Maize Production
to meet tremendous challenges

33. Soil Improvement
Small tractors for more
than 20 years and made
the soil hardpan
top fertility soil is
16.5 cm only
Prof. Zhang Dongxing

34. Improve the Soil
 soil deep loosing tillage
 to use subsoiler to break soil
hardpan
 to increase top fertility soil
 to return farm residue and crop
straw to the soil

35. Population density and machine
 increase the population density in
maize production
 45,000/ha 60,000/ha
 farming machine
 new hybrids with stress tolerance
and suitable to harvest machine
 irrigation works
 farmer collectives

36. Maize Yield and Population Density
t/ha bu/ac plants/ha plants/ac
1 16 10,000 4,047
2 32 20,000 8,094
3 48 30,000 12,141
4 64 40,000 16,188
5 80 45,000 18,211
6 96 50,000 20,235
7 112 55,000 22,258
8 128 60,000 24,282
9 144 65,000 26,305
10 160 70,000 28,329
11 176 75,000 30,352
12 192 80,000 32,376
13 208 85,000 34,399
14 224 90,000 36,423
Lamkey, 2007, Beijing 36

37. Maize Breeding Strategies in
East and SE Asia
Stress tolerance
Suitable to harvest with machine

38. Maize Breeding in China
• The rate of maize yield gains in China
has been reducing although the yield
potential has been increasing since
1960 when single cross hybrids were
introduced

39. What is Yield?
• What is yield? -- questioned by Duvick
• Yield is stress tolerance !
• Stress tolerance of hybrids has been
ignored for almost three decades due to
the central planning economic
constitution of RD management

40. Risky variety
Breeders tend to
develop hybrids
with tall stature, too
much leafy, late
maturity or full
season, and big
ears
most of this kind of
hybrids are risky
under stress
40

41. Plant and ear height (Beijing and Wulumuqi，
2007-2008)
280 130
y = 3.71x + 249.5
270 R2 = 0.50
120
Plant height (cm)
Ear height(cm)
260
110 y = 1.15x + 105.4
250
R2 = 0.10
240 100
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year of release Year of release
Linear regression suggested that plant and ear height increased.

42. Maturity of hybrids delaied
72.0
Low
71.0 Mid
High
Maturity (day)
70.0
69.0
68.0
67.0
66.0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Era (Year)

43. Shelling percentage（2008）
85.0
Shelling (%)
80.0
y = -0.19x + 82.2
R2 = 0.03
75.0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year of release
Shelling percentage showed a trend to reduction during
1950s-2000s, especially reduced greatly during 1980s-2000s.

44. 1.40
1.20 y = 0.0889x + 0.6097
Barrent tip (cm)
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
1950s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
秃尖长度 Year 44

45. 45
Pioneer hybrids 2006

46. Pioneer hybrids 2006 46

47. Stine Seeds, Iowa
150,000/ha
Sept. 2011
have to change
row spacing
from 76 cm to 50
cm, to increase
the population
density
redesigning the
farming machine
47

48. Risky variety
• Breeders also tend to develop hybrids
with excessive stay green and late
maturity during the past 4 decades
• caused application of chemical
fertilizers in a non-judicious manner
• reducing the efficiency of N utilization

49. Heterosis
• The contribution of heterosis to yield
gains is higher in China than that
reported in American hybrids
• the contribution of heterosis to yield gains showed
weak increase with the year of hybrids release

50. Heterosis incerased (1970-2000)
90
Het(%)
80
70
Relative heterosis (%)
60
66% 69%
50
40 y = 0.09x - 107
R2 = 0.02
30
20
10
0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year of release
(11 environments, 2007-2009)
Chinese Academy of Agricultural

51. Schnell, F.W. 1974. Trends and problems in breeding methods for hybrid corn. p. 86–98.
In Proc. of the British Poultry Breeders Roundtable, 16th. Birmingham, England. 51

52. Duvick, D.N. 1999. Heterosis: Feeding people and protecting natural resources. p. 19–29. 52 J.G.
In
Coors and S. Pandey (ed.) The genetics and exploitation of heterosis in crops. ASA, Madison, WI.

53. Campbell, B.T., D.T. Bowman, and D.B. Weaver. 2008. Heterotic eff ects in topcrosses
of modern and obsolete cotton cultivars. Crop Sci. 48:593–605. 53

54. Reorienting the Strategy
• Maize breeders both in China and SE
Asian countries are now actively
reorienting the strategy of maize
breeding, and develop stress resilient
and input responsive hybrids

55. Reorienting the Strategy
• increase yield potential
• enhance stress tolerance
• increase population density in both
crop production and breeding nursery

56. Strategies for breeding in Asia--1
• continue to introduce, improve and
utilize exotic germplasm to broaden the
genetic base in maize breeding
programs
• to enhance genetic variance in breeding
populations
• strengthen the pre-breeding efforts

57. Strategy --2
• germplasm should be divided into 2
heterotic groups or 2 alignments
• based on the current genetic
backgrounds, which will keep the SCA
effects in two groups

58. Duvick, 2005
NSS
SS
58

59. Strategy --3
• improve the germplasm within each
group and push them to the opposite
directions in terms of gene frequency
• which will enhance and accumulate
GCA effects in breeding populations of
germplasm

60. Strategy -- 4
• improve germplasm and select inbred
lines under high population density and
other stress conditions based on G×E
effects to enhance stress tolerance
• double density for inbred line
development
• plus 15,000/ha for evaluation of new
hybrids (Troyer,1981)

61. Strategy -- 5
• multi-location testing and information
management
• science and art
• data and experience
• modern machine and IP technology
• pipeline and profolio

62. Conclusion--2
• public
• private
• pre-breeding
• pipeline
• profolio

63. Conclusion--3
• improve the soil and infrastruture
• improve hybrids to meet challenges
• stress tolerance is more important than
heterosis for hybrid yields
• GCA is more important than SCA
• reorient the strategy of maize breeding
programs

64. Chinese Academy of Agricultural

65. Demand for maize in China - 2020
• 230 million tons by 2020
• Processing 58 mt (26%)
• Feeding stuff 151 mt (70%)
Chinese Academy of Agricultural

66. Three concepts of yield
• Genetic yield (maximum) —The highest yield
record
• Attainable yield —average yield in Maize
Variety Regional Evaluation Trials
• Actual yield — statistic data issued by MOA

67. The differences between yields and yield potential
great
Genetic yieldyield
Genetic yield
Genetic yield
Genetic Attainable yield
Attainable yield
Attainable yield Actual yield
Actual yield
Actual yield
Attainable yield
Attainable yield
Attainable yield Actual yield
227/120/127 860/95/30 Dr. RF Hu