Microsoft’s Acquisition of
Nokia’s Phone Business
marks “the failure of
both companies”
International Herald Tribune, 4 Sep 2013, p. 16
Petri Rouvinen, ETLA, www.etla.fi
Chaos or Turbulence in Digital Ecosystems
BRIE-ETLA Seminar, Berkeley, 6 Sep 2013
1998:
Gates in
talks w. Nokia Jan 2013:
MS-Nokia
talks
2006:
Nokia & Siemens
merge network
businesses
2008/9:
Google
Android
Feb 2011:
Platform
burns
Feb 2011:
Windows
Phone in
MeeGo out
Jan 2007:
Apple iPhone
Sep 2010:
Elop, Nokia’s CEO
Jul 2013:
Nokia buys
Siemens out
of NSN for $2.21bn
Aug 2013:
Ballmer’s
step down
announced
3 Sep 2013:
MS’s acq. of
Nokia devices
Preceding rocky rides of
Microsoft & Nokia
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Gartner.
Market Shares of Mobile Smartphone Operating Systems
Android
Google
iOS
Apple
Symbian
Nokia
RIM
Blackberry
Other
Windows
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Sources: Business Insider, Gartner, IDC, Strategic Analytics, company filings
PC, Smartphone and Tablet
Operating Systems Together
Android
Apple
RIM
Other
MS Windows
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Company releases.
Operating Profit Margins, %
Nokia
Samsung
Apple
Microsoft
Google
-10
90
190
290
390
490
590
690
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Company releases. End of the year except for 2013, which refers to Sep 2nd
Market Value, $bn
Nokia
Samsung
Apple
Microsoft
Google
MS-Nokia
Deal
Microsoft pays
$5bn for Nokia’s devices unit &
$2.18bn to license IPRs Nokia retains
Rougly what Microsoft paid for Skype in 2011 or
Nokia for Navteq in 2007; under 10% of MS’s cash
Current Nokia split to half – New Nokia:
NSN, location-based services (Here), IPRs
Employment
Jun 2013 Q1/2013
Jun 2013 Q1/2013
Jun 2013 Q1/2013
Jun 2013 Q1/2013
Nokia, Global Microsoft, Global
Nokia, Finland Microsoft, Finland
NSN:
50,476
NSN:
50,476
Other:
37,295 5,295
99,139
131,139
NSN:
5,800
NSN:
5,800
Other:
5,100
400
300
5,000
32,000
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Aug 30 =
100
Sep 5 close
Aug 30 = 100
Daily close prices at Nasdaq (MS) & NYSE
Sep 5 Close
+41% Nokia
-6.5% Microsoft
Stock market reaction
Nokia gets out of its cash crisis &
is left with a solid network eq.
business
Microsoft positions itself to burn
cash in an effort to make
its ecosystem fly
Why?
Nokia
• Cash crisis
• Windows ecosystem not
gaining ground
– No improvement in the
short or medium term
• No ability to jump
the MS ship?
Microsoft
• Mimicing Apple & Google
• Windows ecosystem not
gaining ground
– HW-SW integration
– Avoid double margins
in Windows phones
– All-in cash burning
• Nokia made >80% of
Windows phones &
was at a fire sale price
Viable next steps
• Microsoft might
– Sell Nokia factories (18,000 employees)
– Leverage licensed Nokia brand in
urging feature phone users to Windows
– Discontinue headquarter functions &
feature phone development in Finland
– Retain 80-90% of its Finnish employment
– Replace Ballmer with Elop
• Nokia might
– Concentrate primarily to network eq. & services
– License/sell IPRs (w. reduced focus on related R&D)
– Narrower focus in location-based services
– Be engaged in further M&A action
Ultimate outcomes?
• Microsoft: Renewed hope for the ecosystem
but slim chances of success
• Nokia: Nicely pooring business after a rocky ride
• Industry: None?
• Finland: Mentally a shock, but economically neutral?
• Conspiracy theory: After exiting Windows & filling its
coffers, Nokia re-enters phohe business
Thank
You!
fi.linkedin.com/in/petrirouvinen/
Petri.Rouvinen@ETLA.fi
 +358–50–3673474

Microsoft's Acquisition of Nokia's Phone Business marks "the failure of both companies" (IHT, Sep 4th)

  • 1.
    Microsoft’s Acquisition of Nokia’sPhone Business marks “the failure of both companies” International Herald Tribune, 4 Sep 2013, p. 16 Petri Rouvinen, ETLA, www.etla.fi Chaos or Turbulence in Digital Ecosystems BRIE-ETLA Seminar, Berkeley, 6 Sep 2013
  • 2.
    1998: Gates in talks w.Nokia Jan 2013: MS-Nokia talks 2006: Nokia & Siemens merge network businesses 2008/9: Google Android Feb 2011: Platform burns Feb 2011: Windows Phone in MeeGo out Jan 2007: Apple iPhone Sep 2010: Elop, Nokia’s CEO Jul 2013: Nokia buys Siemens out of NSN for $2.21bn Aug 2013: Ballmer’s step down announced 3 Sep 2013: MS’s acq. of Nokia devices
  • 3.
    Preceding rocky ridesof Microsoft & Nokia
  • 4.
    0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2008 2009 20102011 2012 Source: Gartner. Market Shares of Mobile Smartphone Operating Systems Android Google iOS Apple Symbian Nokia RIM Blackberry Other Windows
  • 5.
    0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Sources: Business Insider,Gartner, IDC, Strategic Analytics, company filings PC, Smartphone and Tablet Operating Systems Together Android Apple RIM Other MS Windows
  • 6.
    -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 2008 2009 20102011 2012 2013 Source: Company releases. Operating Profit Margins, % Nokia Samsung Apple Microsoft Google
  • 7.
    -10 90 190 290 390 490 590 690 2007 2008 20092010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Company releases. End of the year except for 2013, which refers to Sep 2nd Market Value, $bn Nokia Samsung Apple Microsoft Google
  • 8.
  • 9.
    Microsoft pays $5bn forNokia’s devices unit & $2.18bn to license IPRs Nokia retains Rougly what Microsoft paid for Skype in 2011 or Nokia for Navteq in 2007; under 10% of MS’s cash Current Nokia split to half – New Nokia: NSN, location-based services (Here), IPRs
  • 10.
    Employment Jun 2013 Q1/2013 Jun2013 Q1/2013 Jun 2013 Q1/2013 Jun 2013 Q1/2013 Nokia, Global Microsoft, Global Nokia, Finland Microsoft, Finland NSN: 50,476 NSN: 50,476 Other: 37,295 5,295 99,139 131,139 NSN: 5,800 NSN: 5,800 Other: 5,100 400 300 5,000 32,000
  • 11.
    -10 0 10 20 30 40 Aug 30 = 100 Sep5 close Aug 30 = 100 Daily close prices at Nasdaq (MS) & NYSE Sep 5 Close +41% Nokia -6.5% Microsoft Stock market reaction Nokia gets out of its cash crisis & is left with a solid network eq. business Microsoft positions itself to burn cash in an effort to make its ecosystem fly
  • 12.
    Why? Nokia • Cash crisis •Windows ecosystem not gaining ground – No improvement in the short or medium term • No ability to jump the MS ship? Microsoft • Mimicing Apple & Google • Windows ecosystem not gaining ground – HW-SW integration – Avoid double margins in Windows phones – All-in cash burning • Nokia made >80% of Windows phones & was at a fire sale price
  • 13.
    Viable next steps •Microsoft might – Sell Nokia factories (18,000 employees) – Leverage licensed Nokia brand in urging feature phone users to Windows – Discontinue headquarter functions & feature phone development in Finland – Retain 80-90% of its Finnish employment – Replace Ballmer with Elop • Nokia might – Concentrate primarily to network eq. & services – License/sell IPRs (w. reduced focus on related R&D) – Narrower focus in location-based services – Be engaged in further M&A action
  • 14.
    Ultimate outcomes? • Microsoft:Renewed hope for the ecosystem but slim chances of success • Nokia: Nicely pooring business after a rocky ride • Industry: None? • Finland: Mentally a shock, but economically neutral? • Conspiracy theory: After exiting Windows & filling its coffers, Nokia re-enters phohe business
  • 15.