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Measuring Return on Investment
in International Student
Recruitment: A Working Model
Advanced Session at the NAFSA Annual Conference in Denver, 31 May 2016
Co-Presenters:
Cheryl DarrupBoychuck, USjournal of Academics
cheryl@USjournal.com
George Kacenga, University of Colorado Denver
George.Kacenga@UCDenver.edu
Angeliki Rigos, Merrimack College
rigosa@merrimack.edu
Learning Objectives:
1. Define ROI metrics, as they pertain to your
campus environment
2. Explore “quantifiably-elusive” factors,
balancing ethical issues and practical realities
3. Play with the model, to evaluate your
institutional ROI as it changes over time
Brief Overview
Brief Overview
Brief Overview
Managing Expectations
* ROI metrics are complicated
Managing Expectations
* ROI metrics are complicated
* Risk: Oversimplifying complex
scenarios
Managing Expectations
* ROI metrics are complicated
* Risk: Oversimplifying complex
scenarios
* Each user = Master of the outcome
Managing Expectations
* ROI metrics are complicated
* Risk: Oversimplifying complex
scenarios
* Each user = Master of the outcome
* Strive for simplicity
Two-Asset Portfolio
Portfolio Strategy
ROI – Definitions and Usefulness
Quantifiably Elusive Variables (QEVs)
Both Input and
Output Variables
Currency fluctuations
Visa policy fluctuations
Sufficient budget
Input Variables that
can be quantified
Input Variables
Top-level support
Well-defined strategy
Word-of-mouth referrals
Academic relevance
Faculty involvement
Efficiency of operations
Diversification of students
Alumni engagement
Prestige factor
Partnerships
A few QEVs can be quantified…
Exchange Rates over time
QEVs within the model
Quantifiably-Elusive Variables Importance Type
1 to 13 China Gulf States Brazil
1 Top-level support 13 input 5 7 3
2 Sufficient budget 11 input 5 3 -5
3 Well-defined strategy 10 input 5 5 3
4 Prestige factor 5 both 5 5 5
5 Word-of-mouth referrals 7 input 5 8 3
6 Currency fluctuations 2 input -1 0 -3
7 Visa policy fluctuations 1 input 5 3 5
8 Academic program relevance 8 input 7 7 7
9 Faculty involvement 3 input 3 3 3
10 Partnerships 9 both 8 5 0
11 Alumni relations 4 both 0 3 0
12 Efficiency of operations 12 input 7 7 7
13 Diversification of student body 6 both -1 3 8
14 Other n/a n/a
Performance: -10 to +10
Qualitative ROI
* Useful for comparing markets
- Based on the performance of key variables
Exchange Rates
 Visa Fluctuations
Strength of Partnerships
* Most useful for developing market-specific
strategies
Quantifiably-Elusive Variables Importance Type
1 to 13 China Gulf States Brazil
1 Top-level support 13 input 5 7 3
2 Sufficient budget 11 input 5 3 -5
3 Well-defined strategy 10 input 5 5 3
4 Prestige factor 5 both 5 5 5
5 Word-of-mouth referrals 7 input 5 8 3
6 Currency fluctuations 2 input -1 0 -3
7 Visa policy fluctuations 1 input 5 3 5
8 Academic program relevance 8 input 7 7 7
9 Faculty involvement 3 input 3 3 3
10 Partnerships 9 both 8 5 0
11 Alumni relations 4 both 0 3 0
12 Efficiency of operations 12 input 7 7 7
13 Diversification of student body 6 both -1 3 8
14 Other n/a n/a
Performance: -10 to +10
Quantifiably-Elusive Variables Importance Type
1 to 13 China Gulf States Brazil
1 Top-level support 13 input 5 7 3
2 Sufficient budget 11 input 5 3 -5
3 Well-defined strategy 10 input 5 5 3
4 Prestige factor 5 both 5 5 5
5 Word-of-mouth referrals 7 input 5 8 3
6 Currency fluctuations 2 input -1 0 -3
7 Visa policy fluctuations 1 input 5 3 5
8 Academic program relevance 8 input 7 7 7
9 Faculty involvement 3 input 3 3 3
10 Partnerships 9 both 8 5 0
11 Alumni relations 4 both 0 3 0
12 Efficiency of operations 12 input 7 7 7
13 Diversification of student body 6 both -1 3 8
14 Other n/a n/a
Performance: -10 to +10
Model Development
* More data => Better model
- Multi-year data is critical for partnerships…
* Differentiate time and $$
- According to markets and types
Partnerships
Sponsors
Other / Nothing
Questions and Answers
Cheryl DarrupBoychuck, USjournal of Academics
cheryl@USjournal.com
George Kacenga, University of Colorado Denver
George.Kacenga@UCDenver.edu
Angeliki Rigos, Merrimack College
rigosa@merrimack.edu

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ROI16

  • 1. Measuring Return on Investment in International Student Recruitment: A Working Model Advanced Session at the NAFSA Annual Conference in Denver, 31 May 2016
  • 2. Co-Presenters: Cheryl DarrupBoychuck, USjournal of Academics cheryl@USjournal.com George Kacenga, University of Colorado Denver George.Kacenga@UCDenver.edu Angeliki Rigos, Merrimack College rigosa@merrimack.edu
  • 3. Learning Objectives: 1. Define ROI metrics, as they pertain to your campus environment 2. Explore “quantifiably-elusive” factors, balancing ethical issues and practical realities 3. Play with the model, to evaluate your institutional ROI as it changes over time
  • 7. Managing Expectations * ROI metrics are complicated
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10. Managing Expectations * ROI metrics are complicated * Risk: Oversimplifying complex scenarios
  • 11. Managing Expectations * ROI metrics are complicated * Risk: Oversimplifying complex scenarios * Each user = Master of the outcome
  • 12.
  • 13. Managing Expectations * ROI metrics are complicated * Risk: Oversimplifying complex scenarios * Each user = Master of the outcome * Strive for simplicity
  • 14.
  • 17. ROI – Definitions and Usefulness
  • 18. Quantifiably Elusive Variables (QEVs) Both Input and Output Variables Currency fluctuations Visa policy fluctuations Sufficient budget Input Variables that can be quantified Input Variables Top-level support Well-defined strategy Word-of-mouth referrals Academic relevance Faculty involvement Efficiency of operations Diversification of students Alumni engagement Prestige factor Partnerships
  • 19. A few QEVs can be quantified… Exchange Rates over time
  • 20. QEVs within the model Quantifiably-Elusive Variables Importance Type 1 to 13 China Gulf States Brazil 1 Top-level support 13 input 5 7 3 2 Sufficient budget 11 input 5 3 -5 3 Well-defined strategy 10 input 5 5 3 4 Prestige factor 5 both 5 5 5 5 Word-of-mouth referrals 7 input 5 8 3 6 Currency fluctuations 2 input -1 0 -3 7 Visa policy fluctuations 1 input 5 3 5 8 Academic program relevance 8 input 7 7 7 9 Faculty involvement 3 input 3 3 3 10 Partnerships 9 both 8 5 0 11 Alumni relations 4 both 0 3 0 12 Efficiency of operations 12 input 7 7 7 13 Diversification of student body 6 both -1 3 8 14 Other n/a n/a Performance: -10 to +10
  • 21. Qualitative ROI * Useful for comparing markets - Based on the performance of key variables Exchange Rates  Visa Fluctuations Strength of Partnerships * Most useful for developing market-specific strategies
  • 22. Quantifiably-Elusive Variables Importance Type 1 to 13 China Gulf States Brazil 1 Top-level support 13 input 5 7 3 2 Sufficient budget 11 input 5 3 -5 3 Well-defined strategy 10 input 5 5 3 4 Prestige factor 5 both 5 5 5 5 Word-of-mouth referrals 7 input 5 8 3 6 Currency fluctuations 2 input -1 0 -3 7 Visa policy fluctuations 1 input 5 3 5 8 Academic program relevance 8 input 7 7 7 9 Faculty involvement 3 input 3 3 3 10 Partnerships 9 both 8 5 0 11 Alumni relations 4 both 0 3 0 12 Efficiency of operations 12 input 7 7 7 13 Diversification of student body 6 both -1 3 8 14 Other n/a n/a Performance: -10 to +10
  • 23. Quantifiably-Elusive Variables Importance Type 1 to 13 China Gulf States Brazil 1 Top-level support 13 input 5 7 3 2 Sufficient budget 11 input 5 3 -5 3 Well-defined strategy 10 input 5 5 3 4 Prestige factor 5 both 5 5 5 5 Word-of-mouth referrals 7 input 5 8 3 6 Currency fluctuations 2 input -1 0 -3 7 Visa policy fluctuations 1 input 5 3 5 8 Academic program relevance 8 input 7 7 7 9 Faculty involvement 3 input 3 3 3 10 Partnerships 9 both 8 5 0 11 Alumni relations 4 both 0 3 0 12 Efficiency of operations 12 input 7 7 7 13 Diversification of student body 6 both -1 3 8 14 Other n/a n/a Performance: -10 to +10
  • 24. Model Development * More data => Better model - Multi-year data is critical for partnerships… * Differentiate time and $$ - According to markets and types Partnerships Sponsors Other / Nothing
  • 25. Questions and Answers Cheryl DarrupBoychuck, USjournal of Academics cheryl@USjournal.com George Kacenga, University of Colorado Denver George.Kacenga@UCDenver.edu Angeliki Rigos, Merrimack College rigosa@merrimack.edu

Editor's Notes

  1. Cheryl introduces session
  2. Angeliki introduces herself
  3. Cheryl reviews objectives
  4. Cheryl: Let’s take a moment to review how we arrived at this point. Fifty years ago, investing in international student recruitment really didn’t need much justification. It was the right thing to do, for so many reasons.
  5. Cheryl: That’s not necessarily the case any more. Many colleagues, for better or for worse, have become obsessed with Big Data in recent years.
  6. Cheryl: Soon, a “culture of evidence” will prevail.
  7. Cheryl: Other industries share similar challenges…
  8. How do you measure the effectiveness of a leader?
  9. How do you measure the value of a global brand? It’s not a perfect science.
  10. Cheryl: We absolutely run the risk of over-simplifying very complex scenarios.
  11. Cheryl: Our goal here is to provide a tool, where each user is the master of her own outcome. We don’t care how you arrive at the data you choose to input into our tool.
  12. Cheryl: We’re striving for simplicity here. Transition to Angeliki.
  13. Angeliki: Investment Strategy: Portfolio managers seek to achieve the best possible trade-off between risk and return and maximize their returns Need to decide how much to invest in safe but low return investments versus risky but higher return investments Examples: Risky – new markets, new long-term partnerships, old markets with big changes in currency and visa Safe – crowded market with low but steady return
  14. Simplest Portfolio: Has two assets One risky asset (expected rate of return 15% with standard deviation of 22%) One risk-free asset (rate of return 7%) Base rate of return for any portfolio is the risk-free rate (7%) Increasing the fraction of the risky asset increases expected rate of return at a rate equal to the risk premium (15% - 7% = 8%) of the risky asset and increases portfolio standard deviation by 22%
  15. Portfolio Strategy: Expected return of portfolio is weighted average of the component returns with the investment proportions as weights Portfolio diversification is of value as long as investments are less than perfectly correlated Investment that is perfectly negatively correlated with portfolio can serve as a perfect hedge Many ways for a portfolio manager to arrive at different equally efficient portfolios No one perfect way Critical to monitor portfolio and shift strategies when changes take place
  16. ROI – Definitions and Usefulness Return on Investment = (net program benefits / program costs) x 100 Net program benefits = total benefits – program costs Measuring ROI helps guide change and improve performance Need to consistently measure ROI and track progress of programs and initiatives over time Measures contribution Helps set priorities Alters future strategy Short term and long term ROI
  17. Some QEVs can be quantified: Exchange Rates Exchange rate between $ and foreign currency can be categorized and extrapolated Plus, minus or zero Should inform future investment
  18. George goes over his examples for 3 markets Audience can input their variables
  19. Useful for comparing markets based on the performance of key variables such as exchange rate, visa fluctuations, partnership strength, etc Most useful for making future strategies for each market
  20. QEVs are ranked in order of importance: 1 being least important, 13 being of highest importance in our example
  21. Each QEV is given a performance level: -10 to +10 Qualitative ROI is the normalized sum product of the two arrays
  22. More data => better model Differentiate time and $ according to markets and types: Partnerships Sponsors Other/nothing Need data over several years to calculate multiyear ROI – critical for partnerships
  23. Questions and Answers