The Real Estate Report September/October, local market trends San Francisco: "Market Takes a Breather" by AMSI's Real Estate Broker Robb Fleischer

1. Robb Fleischer
The Real Estate Report
local market trends
SAN FRANCISCO
Market Takes a Breather
After reaching new all-time highs in June, prices of
single-family, re-sale homes and condos/lofts have
retreated. Although the median price was up again,
year-over-year, the increase was only 1.2%. That is
the lowest year-over-year increase since a
negative 6.3% in March 2012. The median price
went below $1,000,000 for the first time since
January.
Condo/loft prices were more resilient, with the
median condo/loft price up 14.1% year-over-year.
Home sales continue to stumble. They have been
lower than the month before for the past six
months.
AUGUST MARKET STATISTICS
The median price for homes was up 1.2% year-over-
year in August to $988,500. The average
price was up 2.9% to $1,358,197.
Single-family, re-sale home sales was down 8.8%
year-over-year.
The sales price to list price ratio for homes has
been over 100% for twenty-nine of the past thirty
months. It was 109.5% last month.
SALES MOMENTUM…
for homes inched up 0.1 of a point -18.2. Sales
momentum for condos/lofts gained 0.6 of a point
to –2.7.
PRICING MOMENTUM…
for single-family homes was down 1.6 points to
+13.6. Pricing momentum for condos/lofts was
up 0.1 of a point to +12.
CONDO/LOFT STATISTICS
The median price of condos/lofts was down 1.5%
from July. Year-over-year, the median price was up
14.1%.
Condo/loft sales were down 6.3% compared to last
August.
The sale price to list price ratio stayed over 100%
for the thirtieth month in a row: 106%.
This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers.
It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't
know what to do or where to begin, give me a call
and let's discuss your situation and your options.
American Marketing Systems, Inc.
2800 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
(415) 447-2009
rfleischer@amsiemail.com
http://www.amsires.com/staff/robb
DRE #01403882
Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
(Lof ts/Tow nhomes/TIC)
San Francisco Price Differences
from January 2014 & Peak & Trough
Robb Fleischer | rfleischer@amsiemail.com | (415) 447-2009
SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2014
Inside This Issue
> LOCAL MARKET TRENDS ..................... 1
> MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK ............... 2
> HOME STATISTICS .............................. 2
> FORECLOSURE STATS ........................ 3
> CONDO STATISTICS ............................ 3
> MOMENTUM CHARTS .......................... 4
Aug 14 Jul 14 Aug 13
Home Sales: 198 212 217
Median Price: $ 9 88,500 $1 ,073,500 $ 977,000
Av erage Price: $1 ,358,197 $1 ,415,184 $1 ,320,335
Sale/List Price Ratio: 109.5% 110.7% 107.5%
Day s on Market: 27 30 36
Aug 14 Jul 14 Aug 13
Condo Sales: 267 266 285
Median Price: $ 9 30,000 $ 9 44,500 $ 8 15,000
Av erage Price: $1 ,101,574 $1 ,098,373 $ 937,714
Sale/List Price Ratio: 106.0% 107.1% 105.1%
Day s on Market: 33 33 37
Homes: detached
YTD Peak % Trough % Peak Trough
3-month 14% 16% 74% Jun-07 Feb-12
12-month 8% 13% 48% Apr-08 Mar-12
Homes: attached
3-month 13% 21% 58% Jul-08 Jan-12
12-month 9% 21% 45% Aug-08 Jan-12
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
-20.0%
-30.0%
-40.0%
0
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San Francisco Homes: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change

2. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
07-14
04-14
01-14
10-13
07-13
04-13
01-13
10-12
07-12
04-12
01-12
10-11
07-11
04-11
01-11
10-10
07-10
04-10
01-10
10-09
07-09
04-09
01-09
10-08
07-08
04-08
01-08
10-07
07-07
04-07
3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%
Page 2
The Real Estate Report
The chart above shows the Na-tional
monthly average for 30-
year fixed rate mortgages as
compiled by HSH.com. The av-erage
includes mortgages of all
sizes, including conforming,
expanded conforming, and
jumbo.
MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK
Despite Solid Data, Rates Remain Tethered
September 5, 2014 -- Over the last couple of months,
available economic signals from the U.S. continue to
flash much more green than yellow. The economic
storm in the first quarter of 2014 which produced a
decline in GDP growth in the first quarter of the year
continues to get smaller and smaller in the rearview
mirror, and the road ahead increasingly appears dry
and clear.
For most of the world (and of course the U.S.) this is
good news, as American consumers are again
needed to help lift the world out of a set of difficult
straits. Faltering economies in the Eurozone and
prospects for outright deflation led the European
Central Bank this week to further trim the interest
rates they control, and even charge banks more for
parking funds with the financial authority. These
changes are hoped to help incent more lending and
promote both growth and firmer prices in the econo-mies
which share the Euro as a currency. However,
the ECB stopped short of implementing any direct
QE-style programs, but at least they are tweaking
things around the edges to try to stimulate growth.
Weak growth and low yielding domestic investments
have led investors to the U.S., where our bonds offer
better returns and prospects for making money in
equities may be better. This additional inbound de-mand
for our bonds continues to serve mortgage
borrowers well, as without it, the growing economy
would surely be producing higher interest rates by
now.
HSH.com's broad-market mortgage tracker -- our
weekly Fixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator (FRMI)-- found
that the overall average rate for 30-year fixed-rate
mortgages held fast this week, remaining at an aver-age
rate of 4.17 percent, a 2014 low. The FRMI's 15-
year companion followed suit, holding an average
rate of 3.43 percent for a fourth consecutive week;
this is also a level achieved in six of the last eight
weeks. Fully-insured FHA-backed 30-year FRMs also
remained in stasis, as these lowest-priced fixed rate
mortgages clung to an average rate of 3.91 percent
yet again. In fact, the only wobble in rates of the most
popular mortgage products was seen in the overall
5/1 Hybrid ARM, and this most-favored adjustable
rate mortgage managed all of a single basis point
move (.01%) to tick to 3.12 percent. All told, up and
down the yield curve, mortgage rates continue to
show remarkable stability.
350
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$1,700
$1,500
$1,300
$1,100
$900
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San Francisco Homes: Sold Prices Unit Sales
(3-month moving average —$000's)
Ave Med Units

3. August Sales Statistics
Unit
(Single-family Homes)
Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco $ 9 88,500 $1 ,358,197 198 27 109.5% 1.2% 2.9% -8.8% -7.9% -4.0% -6.6%
D1: Northwest $ 1,380,000 $1 ,761,882 17 25 108.2% 8.2% 18.9% -10.5% -5.6% 3.8% -10.5%
D2: Central West $ 9 21,500 $1 ,022,210 42 26 113.6% 7.7% 9.6% 7.7% -13.1% -11.0% 0.0%
D3: Southwest $ 780,000 $ 8 45,456 18 30 110.7% 20.0% 34.7% -5.3% 10.6% 10.1% -5.3%
D4: Twin Peaks $1 ,260,000 $1 ,299,435 23 21 110.2% 11.5% 2.8% 4.5% 13.0% -1.1% 9.5%
D5: Central $ 1,875,000 $2 ,030,500 23 26 112.8% 17.9% 7.3% -39.5% -0.8% 8.9% -17.9%
D6: Central North $ 2,662,500 $2 ,662,500 2 15 114.7% 18.3% 18.3% 0.0% 8.6% 9.7% -50.0%
D7: North $ 3,575,000 $3 ,745,000 10 19 101.1% -13.9% -12.4% 0.0% -14.9% -30.3% 11.1%
D8: Northeast $2 ,462,500 $2 ,845,972 4 27 101.8% -1.5% -10.5% 0.0% 72.8% 99.7% 300.0%
D9: Central East $1 ,097,000 $1 ,084,421 19 30 110.8% 16.7% 0.4% -24.0% -15.6% -21.1% -24.0%
D10: Southeast $ 7 20,000 $ 7 36,731 39 31 112.1% 22.0% 22.8% 0.0% 1.6% 3.7% -11.4%
01-07

4. Table Definitions
_______________
Median Price
The price at which 50% of
prices were higher and
50%were lower.
Average Price
Add all prices and divide by the
number of sales.
SP/LP
Sales price to list price ratio or
the price paid for the property
divided by the asking price.
DOI
Days of Inventory, or how many
days it would take to sell all the
property for sale at the current
rate of sales.
Pend
Property under contract to sell
that hasn’t closed escrow.
Inven
Number of properties actively
for sale as of the last day of the
month.
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
-20.0%
FORECLOSURE STATISTICS
Notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure proc-ess,
in San Francisco continues to drop. They plum-meted
36.6% in July from June. Year-over-year, notices
were down 40.9%. There were 26 notices in June.
Notices of sale, which set the date and time of an auc-tion,
and serve as the homeowner's final notice before
sale, fell 38.9% from June, and they were down 58.5%
year-over-year. There were 22.
After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are
only three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be
cancelled for reasons that include a successful loan
modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal re-quirement
to re-file the notice after extended postpone-ments.
Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the bank
will place the opening bid. If a third party, typically an
investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, the
property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will go
back to the bank.
There were 30 sales cancelled last month.
Seven homes went back to the bank in July.
There are currently 102 properties scheduled for sale.
With the recent surge in prices, many of them will
probably be cancelled.
The total number of properties owned by the banks was
down 14% year-over-year. The banks now own ap-proximately
240 properties in the city.
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San Francisco Condos: Sold Prices Unit Sales
(3-month moving average —$000's)
Ave Med Units

5. -30.0%
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San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change
© 2014 rereport.com
August Sales Statistics
(Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lof ts)
Unit
Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco $ 9 30,000 $1 ,101,574 267 33 106.0% 14.1% 17.5% -6.3% -1.5% 0.3% 0.4%
D1: Northwest $ 850,000 $ 8 98,250 14 33 113.5% -12.8% -10.4% -22.2% -16.5% -10.4% 0.0%
D2: Central West $ 8 00,000 $ 7 17,000 3 26 112.8% -3.3% -5.0% -40.0% -9.1% -18.2% -57.1%
D3: Southwest $ 420,000 $ 4 20,000 1 10 102.4% -16.0% -16.0% 0.0% -12.7% -12.7% 0.0%
D4: Twin Peaks $ 3 63,000 $ 4 24,730 5 57 107.2% -28.0% -17.8% -16.7% -68.7% -63.6% 66.7%
D5: Central $ 1,159,992 $1 ,180,309 34 36 112.5% 34.9% 24.1% -2.9% -3.3% -1.0% -5.6%
D6: Central North $ 1,000,000 $ 935,524 21 22 109.7% 35.4% 9.3% -30.0% 30.7% 16.8% -25.0%
D7: North $ 1,450,000 $1 ,582,527 37 31 105.7% 25.0% 39.6% 27.6% 10.9% 2.6% 76.2%
D8: Northeast $ 827,500 $ 9 83,781 32 35 105.2% 1.8% -6.4% -36.0% -17.3% -23.7% -34.7%
D9: Central East $ 8 80,000 $1 ,093,365 113 34 103.2% 16.5% 21.8% 5.6% -0.6% 7.8% 9.7%
D10: Southeast $ 5 08,000 $ 5 07,400 5 54 100.0% 51.6% 51.5% 66.7% -10.9% -24.6% 66.7%

6. THE REAL ESTATE REPORT
San Francisco
Robb Fleischer
American Marketing Systems, Inc.
2800 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Go online to see the full report
with the district by district breakdown:
HTTP://WWW.AMSIRES.COM/STAFF/ROBB
The Real Estate Market Trends Report is published and copyrighted by http://rereport.com.
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San Francisco Homes: Sales Momentum
Sales Pricing © 2014 rereport.com
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San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Sales Momentum
Sales Pricing © 2014 rereport.com