The Real Estate Report November/December, local market trends San Francisco: "Obtaining a Mortgage to Get More Difficult" by AMSI's Real Estate Broker Robb Fleischer

1. Robb Fleischer
NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2013
American Marketing Systems, Inc.
2800 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
(415) 447-2009
rfleischer@amsiemail.com
http://www.amsires.com/staff/robb
DRE #01403882
Inside This Issue
> LOCAL MARKET TRENDS ..................... 1
> MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK ............... 2
> HOME STATISTICS .............................. 2
> FORECLOSURE STATS ........................ 3
> CONDO STATISTICS ............................ 3
> MOMENTUM CHARTS .......................... 4
The Real Estate Report
local market trends
Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
SAN FRANCISCO
Sep 13
176
Oct 12
252
Median Price: $ 911,944
$ 935,000
$ 835,000
Av erage Price: $1,359,182
$1,238,404
$1,303,858
103.2%
Home Sales:
Obtaining a Mortgage to Get More Difficult
New mortgage rules are going into effect Jan. 10.
Oct 13
242
• What's left every month after you've paid your
debts. In most cases, your total monthly debt
payments can't exceed 43% of your monthly
gross income.
Sale/List Price Ratio:
108.0%
108.8%
Day s on Market:
34
29
44
The new rules were written by the Consumer
(Lofts/Tow nhomes/TIC)
Financial Protection Bureau to protect homebuyers
Oct 13
Sep 13
Oct 12
from risky mortgages like the ones that led so
• Your credit history.
Condo Sales:
323
223
273
many homeowners into foreclosure in recent years.
OCTOBER MARKET STATISTICS
The rules also protect investors from buying
Median Price: $ 865,900 $ 832,088 $ 765,000
After setting an all-time high of $1,060,000 in
shoddy mortgage-backed investments.
Av erage Price: $1,006,920 $ 944,698 $ 890,907
May, the median price for single-family, re-sale Sale/List Price Ratio:
104.8%
105.1%
103.0%
The Ability to Repay Rule requires lenders to
homes was down to $911,944 last month. That
Day s on Market:
38
33
52
evaluate your financial fitness to repay a loan, even is still a gain of 9.2% year-over-year. This is after
if it's an adjustable-rate mortgage with low
San Francisco Price Differences
thirteen months of double-digit gains. We can't help
payments compared with a fixed-rate loan.
from January 2012 & Peak & Trough
but think that a slowing of price increases is a good
Hom es: detached
thing. Considering all the talking heads are
Now, lenders will have to evaluate your ability to
YTD Peak % Trough % Peak Trough
screaming about the new bubble in real estate,
pay back a mortgage based on these points:
3-month 47%
0%
50% Jun-07 Feb-12
especially in the Bay Area.
12-month 31%
1%
32% Apr-08 Mar-12
• Your income or assets.
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes were down
Hom es: attached
• Your employment.
4% year-over-year. There were 242 homes sold
3-month 36%
7%
39% Jul-08 Jan-12
• The monthly payment on the mortgage you want.
last month. Home sales are up 5.5% year-to-date.
12-month 29%
8%
29% Aug-08 Jan-12
• Monthly payments on your other debts.
The sale price to list price ratio was 108%.
PRICING MOMENTUM…
• Monthly payments on other mortgage-related costs
for single-family homes which had been on the up(home and mortgage insurance and property taxes, SALES MOMENTUM…
swing the past nineteen months, dropped 0.3 of a
for example).
for homes dropped 2.2 points to +4.5. Sales
point to 20.1. Pricing momentum for condos/lofts
• Any commitments for child support or alimony.
momentum for condos/lofts dropped 1.2 points to
dipped 0.3 of a point to +15.4.
+3.9.
CONDO/LOFT STATISTICS
The median price for condos/lofts set
an all-time high last month. It was up
13.2% year-over-year.
San Francisco Homes: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change
50.0%
40.0%
Closed sales jumped 19.3%. There
were 323 condos/lofts sold last month.
Year-to-date, sales are up 0.9%.
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASO
-10.0%
8
9
0
1
2
3
-20.0%
-30.0%
-40.0%
The sale price to list price ratio stayed
over 100% for the twentieth month in a
row: 104.8%. This is down from the
recent peak of 106.4% in June.
© 2013 rereport.com
Robb Fleischer | rfleischer@amsiemail.com | (415) 447-2009

2. The Real Estate Report
MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK
Nov 8, 2013 -- According to the freshest economic data,
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
10-13
07-13
04-13
01-13
10-12
07-12
04-12
01-12
10-11
07-11
04-11
01-11
10-10
07-10
04-10
01-10
10-09
07-09
04-09
01-09
10-08
07-08
04-08
01-08
10-07
07-07
04-07
01-07
10-06
07-06
04-06
01-06
3.0%
the economy seems on better footing than previously
believed. A spate of good economic news
accumulated throughout the week, and with Friday's
employment report rather stronger than expected,
interest rates have begun to rise after a downward
spell which began around Labor day.
To some degree, markets are always dependent
upon data to provide direction, with stronger or
weaker reports adding volatility. In the current
environment, this may be exacerbated, since both
stock and bond markets are trying to figure out when
the Fed may start to exit the arena and position
themselves to gain advantage (or limit damage)
when this occurs.
At this moment, the data are flashing more green
than not, so mortgage rates are moving more toward
the red than not.
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
The chart above shows the
National monthly average for
30-year fixed rate mortgages
as compiled by HSH.com. The
average includes mortgages of
all sizes, including conforming,
"expanded conforming," and
jumbo.
HSH.com's broad-market mortgage tracker -- our
weekly Fixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator (FRMI) -found that the overall average rate for a 30-year
fixed-rate mortgage moved higher by seven basis
points (0.07%) to 4.34%. The FRMI's 15-year
companion increased by three basis points (0.03%)
from the prior week's value, rising to 3.47%. The
8.0%
popular FHA-backed 30-year FRM rose by six basis
points but remained under the 4 percent mark at
3.97%, while the overall 5/1 Hybrid ARM moved the
least of the bunch, rising by two hundredths of a
percentage point (0.02%), lifting to 3.04% for the
week.
As we remain in fully "data dependent mode" as far
as mortgage rates go, we can expect to see volatility,
and that biased to the upside. Rates almost always
rise faster than they fall, and relative to where we
are, we'll need an accumulation of weaker data to
drag rates down. Given the next bunch due out,
there's not one single item with enough gravity to
accomplish that on its own, so up we will go.
Compared with this week, a lesser bunch of data
greets us next week. We'll see the Chicago Fed's
National Activity Index, a couple of measures of
prices, some trade and inventory figures and a few
other odds and ends. With the warmth spreading
from this week bumping rates upward into next, a
good working number for next week would be an
increase of around 8-10 basis points.
San Francisco Homes: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
(3-month moving average — $000's)
$1,500
350
$1,300
300
250
$1,100
200
$900
150
$700
100
$500
50
$300
0
0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASO
8
9
0
1
2
3
Ave
Med
© 2013 rereport.com
Units
October Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
Prices
Unit
Yearly Change
Monthly Change
Median
Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average
San Francisco $ 911,944 $1,359,182
242
34 108.0%
9.2%
4.2%
Sales Median Average
-4.0%
-2.5%
9.8%
Sales
37.5%
D1: Northw est $1,430,000
$1,690,262
20
38 111.2%
34.6%
-1.3%
-16.7%
57.5%
58.5%
53.8%
D2: Central West $ 800,000
$ 814,487
52
36 109.5%
6.7%
2.4%
15.6%
-7.0%
-14.4%
30.0%
D3: Southw est $ 832,500
$ 839,587
16
34 111.4%
31.1%
10.2%
77.8%
7.4%
-6.9%
45.5%
D4: Tw in Peaks $1,050,000
$1,209,448
29
25 110.3%
13.5%
20.9%
0.0%
-22.2%
-13.7%
38.1%
D5: Central $1,595,000
$1,803,418
35
32 106.6%
18.1%
21.2%
-2.8%
3.2%
14.5%
52.2%
D6: Central North $1,550,000
$1,633,333
3
42 101.7%
0.0%
-7.1%
-72.7%
30.3%
-2.7%
-25.0%
D7: North $3,854,000
$4,676,154
13
26 102.7%
1.8%
1.1%
-27.8%
-26.6%
-11.4%
85.7%
D8: Northeast $4,087,500
$4,068,750
4
41 104.5% 215.6%
177.9%
-50.0%
n/a
n/a
n/a
D9: Central East $1,055,000
Page 2
$1,225,480
25
29 115.2%
31.9%
13.9%
66.7%
3.7%
10.3%
13.6%
D10: Southeast $ 610,000
$ 634,100
45
41 109.0%
13.0%
20.3%
-8.2%
-7.6%
-0.3%
32.4%

3. San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASO
-10.0% 8
9
0
1
2
3
-20.0%
-30.0%
© 2013 rereport.com
FORECLOSURE STATISTICS
Notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure
process, in San Francisco plummeted 42.4% in
September from August. Year-over-year, notices were
down 65.9%. There were 30 notices in September.
Notices of sale, which set the date and time of an
auction, and serve as the homeowner's final notice
before sale, dropped 61.% from August, and were down
81.2% year-over-year. There were 19.
After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are
only three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be
cancelled for reasons that include a successful loan
modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal
requirement to re-file the notice after extended
postponements.
Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the bank
will place the opening bid. If a third party, typically an
investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, the
property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will go
back to the bank.
There were 49 sales cancelled last month.
Only eight homes went back to the bank in September.
There were two in August.
There are currently 150 properties scheduled for sale.
With the recent surge in prices, many of them will
probably be cancelled.
The total number of properties owned by the banks was
down 43.4% year-over-year. The banks now own
approximately 274 properties in the city.
San Francisco Condos: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
(3-month moving average — $000's)
$1,100
$1,000
$900
$800
$700
$600
$500
$400
$300
350
300
Table Definitions
_______________
250
Median Price
200
The price at which 50% of
prices were higher and
50%were lower.
150
100
50
0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASO
8
9
0
1
2
3
Ave
Med
Average Price
0
Add all prices and divide by the
number of sales.
© 2013 rereport.com
Units
(Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts)
Prices
Unit
SP/LP
Sales price to list price ratio or
the price paid for the property
divided by the asking price.
October Sales Statistics
Yearly Change
Median
Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average
San Francisco $ 865,900 $1,006,920
323
38 104.8% 13.2%
13.0%
Monthly Change
Sales Median Average
18.3%
4.1%
6.6%
Sales
44.8%
-33.3%
DOI
Days of Inventory, or how many
days it would take to sell all the
property for sale at the current
rate of sales.
D1: Northw est $1,125,000
$1,081,750
8
31 107.2%
17.5%
9.4%
0.0%
51.5%
50.0%
D2: Central West $ 759,000
$ 773,611
9
42 109.8%
8.0%
6.5%
12.5%
-10.7%
7.2%
50.0%
D3: Southw est $ 525,000
$ 578,000
3
48 103.5%
29.6%
42.7%
50.0%
-33.1%
-26.4%
200.0%
D4: Tw in Peaks $ 549,000
$ 524,777
5
48 104.7%
22.0%
7.8%
-28.6%
15.6%
10.5%
400.0%
Pend
Property under contract to sell
that hasn’t closed escrow.
D5: Central $1,115,000
$1,071,473
56
34 110.6%
27.4%
18.2%
21.7%
-1.1%
-7.9%
40.0%
D6: Central North $ 780,000
$ 906,488
42
26 107.9%
40.9%
58.6%
16.7%
-4.2%
13.9%
61.5%
D7: North $1,272,500
$1,308,736
36
38 104.0%
19.9%
5.0%
50.0%
-2.2%
-20.9%
80.0%
Inven
D8: Northeast $ 750,000
$ 970,755
49
55
99.6%
-9.3%
-19.8%
6.5%
-8.5%
4.6%
81.5%
D9: Central East $ 853,500
$ 996,794
109
35 103.1%
12.6%
22.5%
26.7%
13.8%
22.5%
28.2%
D10: Southeast $ 430,000
$ 473,333
3
71 104.6%
56.4%
76.8%
0.0%
17.8%
27.9%
-25.0%
Number of properties actively
for sale as of the last day of the
month.

4. THE REAL ESTATE REPORT
San Francisco
Robb Fleischer
American Marketing Systems, Inc.
2800 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Go online to see the full report
with the district by district breakdown:
HTTP://WWW.AMSIRES.COM/STAFF/ROBB
San Francisco Homes: Sales Momentum
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0 0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASO
8
9
0
1
2
3
-10.0
-15.0
-20.0
-25.0
© 2013 rereport.com
Sales
Pricing
San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Sales Momentum
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
-10.0
-20.0
0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASO
8
9
0
1
2
3
-30.0
-40.0
-50.0
Sales
Pricing
© 2013 rereport.com
The Real Estate Market Trends Report is published and copyrighted by http://rereport.com.