The Real Estate Report July/August, local market trends San Francisco: "Market Takes a Breather" by AMSI's Real Estate Broker Robb Fleischer

1. local market trends
The Real Estate Report
Sඉඖ Fකඉඖඋඑඛඋ඗
This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers.
It’s important to be calm and realistic. If you don’t
know what to do or where to begin, give me a call
and let’s discuss your situation and your options.
Market Takes a Breather
After setting new all-time highs two months in a
row, the median price for single-family, re-sale
homes in San Francisco slipped below $1,000,000
in June. The median price settled to $960,000 in
June.
Using a 3-month moving average, the median price
for single-family homes is up 7% from the peak:
June 2007.
Mortgage rates are on the rise. They jumped by
half a point in three days. Rates have since been
retreating, but the long term trend is for rates to
increase.
Initially, when mortgage rates begin increasing,
many buyers who have been on the fence come
into the market thereby boosting demand.
We expect sales and prices to increase over the
next two months, then price increases should start
moderating.
JUNE MARKET STATISTICS
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes were off 6%
from last June.
The sale price to list price ratio has been over
100% since September 2011, except for
December 2012. Last month is was 111.2%.
SALES MOMENTUM…
for single-family, re-sale homes in San Francisco
fell 0.6 of a point to +6.4. Sales momentum for
condos/lofts dropped 5.5 points to +9.9. (See
charts below)
PRICING MOMENTUM…
gained 1.2 points to +17.7. Pricing momentum for
condos/lofts slipped 0.2 of a point to +17.1.
WE CALCULATE…
momentum by using a 12-month moving average
to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year’s
12-month moving average to last year’s, we get a
percentage showing market momentum.
CONDO/LOFT STATISTICS…
Sales were off in June by 28.8% from May. Year-
over-year, sales fell 23.8%.
The sales price to list price ratio stayed over 100%
for the sixteenth month in a row: 106.4%.
American Marketing Systems, Inc.
2800 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
(415) 447-2009
rfleischer@amsiemail.com
http://www.amsires.com/staff/robb
DRE #01403882
Robb Fleischer
Robb Fleischer | rfleischer@amsiemail.com | (415) 447-2009
JULY/AUGUST 2013
Inside This Issue
> LOCAL MARKET TRENDS.....................1
> MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK ...............2
> HOME STATISTICS ..............................2
> FORECLOSURE STATS ........................3
> CONDO STATISTICS ............................3
> MOMENTUM CHARTS ..........................4
Jun 13 May 13 Jun 12
Home Sales: 251 231 267
Median Price: 960,000$ 1,060,000$ 780,000$
Average Price: 1,183,363$ 1,549,607$ 1,163,011$
Sale/List Price Ratio: 111.2% 108.0% 103.4%
Days on Market: 34 31 58
Jun 13 May 13 Jun 12
Condo Sales: 259 364 340
Median Price: 780,000$ 832,500$ 712,500$
Average Price: 944,689$ 988,099$ 824,186$
Sale/List Price Ratio: 106.4% 104.7% 101.2%
Days on Market: 37 37 56
(Lofts/Tow nhomes/TIC)
Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
Homes: detached
YTD Peak % Trough % Peak Trough
3-month 57% 7% 61% Jun-07 Feb-12
12-month 23% -5% 24% Apr-08 Mar-12
Homes: attached
3-month 34% 5% 37% Jul-08 Jan-12
12-month 24% 3% 24% Aug-08 Jan-12
San Francisco Price Differences
from January 2012 & Peak & Trough
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San Francisco Homes: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change
© 2013 rereport.com

2. Page 2
The Real Estate Report
The chart above shows the
National monthly average for
30-year fixed rate mortgages
as compiled by HSH.com. The
average includes mortgages of
all sizes, including conforming,
"expanded conforming," and
jumbo.
MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK
Jun 28, 2013 -- The aftermath of the Fed's meeting and
Mr. Bernanke's press conference remarks continued
to roil markets this week, but there are some
indications that the "sell everything and run" panic
has subsided.
HSH.com's broad-market mortgage tracker -- our
weekly Fixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator (FRMI) --
found that the overall average rate for 30-year fixed-
rate mortgages leapt by forty three basis points
(0.43%) to 4.62%, the highest average rate since
August 2011. The FRMI's 15-year companion added
thirty eight basis points to its average (0.38%), rising
to 3.73% for the week. FHA-backed 30-year FRMs
rose by a whopping 49 basis points to move to an
average rate of 4.30%, while the overall 5/1 Hybrid
ARM moved added forty-three hundredths of a
percentage point (0.43%) to 3.34% for the week.
Sales of new homes continued upward in May, rising
to a 476,000 annualized pace. Inventories remained
lean at 4.1 months of available supply, while the
actual number of units available continues to slowly
grow. Over the past 11 months, built-and-ready to
sell stock has risen from 142,000 units to May's
161,000 and both demand and supply are tracking
one another pretty closely.
While gains in sales are encouraging, it bears
remembering that even with the steady rise -- and
sales in May were some 29% above year-ago levels -
- today's annualized sales pace is about one-third of
the peak level before the boom, and barely half of
what a "normal" economy should be producing.
Should it continue, the recent rise in interest rates
may retard the recovery in housing markets.
After popping strongly higher on 6/20, 6/21 and 6/24,
mortgage rates moderated as the week progressed,
improving by more than 20 basis points from
Monday's 4.63% daily conforming 30-year FRM to
Friday's 4.42%. Although markets remain tense and
wary, mortgage rates seem poised to slip backwards
as we move into next week. Failing an outsized
improvement in the ISM manufacturing (seems
unlikely) or service business reports (possible) on
Monday and Wednesday respectively, that leaves us
with only the June employment report as a concern
for rates.
At present, we expect a 12 to 15 basis point decline
next week in HSH's FRMI, a trim off the top of this
week's rise. As with last week, you might check
hsh.com for daily updates next week to see how
things are going.
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San Francisco Homes: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
(3-month moving average — $000's)
Ave Med Units © 2013 rereport.com
Unit
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco 960,000$ 1,183,363$ 251 34 111.2% 23.1% 1.7% -6.0% -9.4% -23.6% 8.7%
D1: Northwest 1,330,000$ 1,440,957$ 23 45 111.3% 70.5% -6.7% 0.0% -8.0% -18.1% 9.5%
D2: Central West 822,500$ 876,774$ 44 33 110.9% 10.0% 15.7% 29.4% -3.2% -1.8% 7.3%
D3: Southwest 817,500$ 855,875$ 16 28 111.5% 36.8% 24.2% -33.3% -3.8% -7.0% 23.1%
D4: Twin Peaks 1,146,000$ 1,204,442$ 33 30 113.7% 34.0% 14.1% -19.5% -5.3% -11.6% 6.5%
D5: Central 1,530,000$ 1,630,618$ 44 26 112.7% 20.9% 23.6% 25.7% -2.9% -7.7% 25.7%
D6: Central North 2,830,000$ 2,830,000$ 2 24 99.5% 98.6% 92.6% -60.0% 3.9% 3.7% -50.0%
D7: North 2,950,000$ 3,590,000$ 8 30 104.5% 12.5% 2.1% -57.9% -17.8% -18.8% -66.7%
D8: Northeast 2,100,000$ 1,853,333$ 3 29 115.9% -57.5% -49.7% 0.0% -4.0% -15.3% 50.0%
D9: Central East 1,145,000$ 1,151,047$ 22 33 114.5% 37.1% 27.2% 4.8% 15.9% 9.8% -15.4%
D10: Southeast 630,500$ 622,377$ 56 40 110.1% 33.4% 35.8% 40.0% 8.7% 7.8% 69.7%
June Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change
3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%
01-06
04-06
07-06
10-06
01-07
04-07
07-07
10-07
01-08
04-08
07-08
10-08
01-09
04-09
07-09
10-09
01-10
04-10
07-10
10-10
01-11
04-11
07-11
10-11
01-12
04-12
07-12
10-12
01-13
04-13
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates

3. Table Definitions
_______________
Median Price
The price at which 50% of
prices were higher and
50%were lower.
Average Price
Add all prices and divide by the
number of sales.
SP/LP
Sales price to list price ratio or
the price paid for the property
divided by the asking price.
DOI
Days of Inventory, or how many
days it would take to sell all the
property for sale at the current
rate of sales.
Pend
Property under contract to sell
that hasn’t closed escrow.
Inven
Number of properties actively
for sale as of the last day of the
month.
There were no notices of default filed in San Francisco
in May!!!!
There were only four notices of sale filed last month.
After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are
only three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be
cancelled for reasons that include a successful loan
modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal
requirement to re-file the notice after extended
postponements.
Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the bank
will place the opening bid. If a third party, typically an
investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, the
property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will go
back to the bank.
FORECLOSURE STATISTICS
Only one home went back to the bank last month.
There are currently 189 properties scheduled for sale.
With the recent surge in prices, many of them will
probably be cancelled.
The total number of properties owned by the banks was
down 39.6% year-over-year. The banks now own
approximately 351 properties in the city.
For further details and a city-by-city breakdown of
foreclosure statistics, go to http://foreclosureradar.com.
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San Francisco Condos: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
(3-month moving average — $000's)
Ave Med Units © 2013 rereport.com
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San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change
© 2013 rereport.com
Unit
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco 780,000$ 944,689$ 259 37 106.4% 9.5% 14.6% -23.8% -6.3% -4.4% -28.8%
D1: Northwest 882,000$ 1,054,250$ 11 24 105.3% 11.4% 33.8% -47.6% 10.3% 22.7% -26.7%
D2: Central West 545,000$ 693,250$ 4 98 110.1% -26.4% -4.9% -42.9% -38.7% -11.9% 0.0%
D3: Southwest 359,000$ 359,000$ 1 10 120.1% 35.5% 37.4% -66.7% -26.0% -17.6% -66.7%
D4: Twin Peaks 685,000$ 637,500$ 4 44 112.4% 37.1% 24.3% -33.3% 47.3% 20.4% -55.6%
D5: Central 895,000$ 929,723$ 47 41 113.1% 21.8% 18.0% -4.1% -5.8% -6.9% -20.3%
D6: Central North 720,500$ 783,423$ 26 36 107.2% 13.9% 15.3% -18.8% -16.1% -12.0% -27.8%
D7: North 1,277,000$ 1,262,345$ 31 31 108.9% 16.1% -3.3% -16.2% 11.0% -3.5% -22.5%
D8: Northeast 722,450$ 1,011,132$ 40 37 101.0% -8.3% 11.0% -24.5% -8.3% -5.6% -35.5%
D9: Central East 765,500$ 913,406$ 88 35 104.3% 8.0% 12.5% -6.4% -4.7% -7.1% -30.2%
D10: Southeast 528,000$ 466,400$ 5 52 105.8% 56.4% 52.9% -16.7% 22.8% 15.0% -44.4%
June Sales Statistics
(Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts)
Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change

4. The Real Estate Market Trends Report is published and copyrighted by http://rereport.com.
THE REAL ESTATE REPORT
San Francisco
Robb Fleischer
American Marketing Systems, Inc.
2800 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Go online to see the full report
with the district by district breakdown:
HTTP://WWW.AMSIRES.COM/STAFF/ROBB
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San Francisco Homes: Sales Momentum
Sales Pricing © 2013 rereport.com
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San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Sales Momentum
Sales Pricing © 2013 rereport.com