The Real Estate Report October/November, local market trends San Francisco: "Government Shutdown to Put Brakes on Market" by AMSI's Real Estate Broker Robb Fleischer

1. Robb Fleischer
OCTOBER/NOVEMBER 2013
American Marketing Systems, Inc.
2800 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
(415) 447-2009
rfleischer@amsiemail.com
http://www.amsires.com/staff/robb
DRE #01403882
Inside This Issue
> LOCAL MARKET TRENDS ..................... 1
> MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK ............... 2
> HOME STATISTICS .............................. 2
> FORECLOSURE STATS ........................ 3
> CONDO STATISTICS ............................ 3
> MOMENTUM CHARTS .......................... 4
The Real Estate Report
local market trends
Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
SAN FRANCISCO
Many, but not all, government agencies involved in
the real estate market have either closed or
curtailed their activities since congress failed to
approve funding.
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes were off
1.1% year-over-year. There were 176 homes
sold last month. Home sales are down 2.6%
year-to-date.
The IRS is closed and has suspended the
processing of all forms. Some of these forms,
particularly tax return transcripts, are required for
many kinds of loans, including FHA and VA.
The sales price to list price ratio has been over
100% for eighteen of the past nineteen months.
It was 108.8%.
SEPTEMBER MARKET STATISTICS
The median price for single-family, re-sale homes
scored another solid gain in September, rising
29.4% year-over-year.
Sep 12
178
Median Price: $ 935,000
$ 977,000
$ 722,500
Av erage Price: $1,238,404
$1,320,335
$ 937,072
Sale/List Price Ratio:
108.8%
107.5%
105.4%
Day s on Market:
29
36
45
Sep 13
223
Aug 13
285
Sep 12
227
Median Price: $ 832,088
$ 815,000
$ 777,000
Av erage Price: $ 944,698
$ 937,714
$ 900,030
(Lofts/Tow nhomes/TIC)
Condo Sales:
Sale/List Price Ratio:
for homes rose 1.1 points to +6.7.
105.1%
105.1%
100.9%
Day s on Market:
SALES MOMENTUM…
33
37
51
San Francisco Price Differences
PRICING MOMENTUM…
for single-family homes has been on the up-swing
The FHA will continue to endorse new loans for the the past nineteen months. It rose one point to
Single Family Mortgage Loan Program, but will not +20.4. Sales momentum for condos/lofts dropped
make new commitments to the Multi-family
1.6 points to +15.7.
program.
Lenders will continue to process and guaranty
mortgages through the VA Loan Guaranty
program. Expect some delays.
Aug 13
217
Home Sales:
Government Shutdown to Put Brakes on Market
SSA is also closed and will not be verifying social
security numbers, a further complication for
mortgage processing.
Sep 13
176
CONDO/LOFT STATISTICS
The median price for condos/lofts was up 7.1%
year-over-year.
Closed sales were off 1.8%. There were 223
condos/lofts sold last month. Year-to-date, sales
are down 10.5%.
from January 2012 & Peak & Trough
Hom es: detached
YTD Peak % Trough % Peak Trough
3-month
45%
-1%
49% Jun-07
Feb-12
12-month
30%
0%
31% Apr-08
Mar-12
Hom es: attached
3-month
36%
7%
39% Jul-08
Jan-12
12-month
28%
7%
28% Aug-08
Jan-12
This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers.
It’s important to be calm and realistic. If you don’t
know what to do or where to begin, give me a call
and let’s discuss your situation and your options.
The sale price to list price ratio stayed over 100%
for the nineteenth month in a row: 105.1%.
San Francisco Homes: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
-20.0%
0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA S
8
9
0
1
2
3
-30.0%
-40.0%
© 2013 rereport.com
Robb Fleischer | rfleischer@amsiemail.com | (415) 447-2009

2. The Real Estate Report
MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK
Oct 4, 2013 -- Just when we need as much clarity as
possible to help discern how the Fed might act, we
instead get political theater which clouds the picture
even further.
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
07-13
04-13
01-13
10-12
07-12
04-12
01-12
10-11
07-11
04-11
01-11
10-10
07-10
04-10
01-10
10-09
07-09
04-09
01-09
10-08
07-08
04-08
01-08
10-07
07-07
04-07
01-07
10-06
07-06
04-06
01-06
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
The chart above shows the
National monthly average for
30-year fixed rate mortgages
as compiled by HSH.com. The
average includes mortgages of
all sizes, including conforming,
"expanded conforming," and
jumbo.
seven hundredths of a percentage point (0.07%)
stopping on the way down at 3.20%.
Despite the complete shutdown of the wholly
government-backed USDA program, the immediate
The mortgage market isn't closed - not yet, anyway - impact on mortgage borrowers is still only slight.
but the works will continue to be more gummed up by However, as time passes, the mucilage in the gears
the day, as inbound requests for documentation from of the mortgage machine will begin to gel, and delays
in closing loans and backlogs of deals will become
the IRS will pile higher and higher until the impasse
comes to an end. That's a shame, since mortgage
the order of the day. We still have some time before
rates have fallen to levels last seen in early summer, that becomes reality, so for now, lets hope for a quick
and borrowers are hoping to respond by buying
end to the impasse in Washington.
homes and refinancing their mortgages. They may
The drop in rates due to the surprise inaction by the
still, but the process to get a loan closed may drag on
Fed a couple of weeks ago seems to have largely run
even longer than it already takes.
its course. On a daily basis, rates have been pretty
flat for the last five or six days, and it seems mostly
HSH.com's broad-market mortgage tracker -- our
likely we will plateau around these levels until more
weekly Fixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator (FRMI) -found that the overall average rate for a 30-year
clarity about the Fed's intentions (or some about the
fixed-rate mortgage dropped back by another nine
economy) become available, whenever that might be.
basis points (0.09%) to 4.43%, the FRMI's lowest
If nothing else, we will get at least some of the
value since late June. The FRMI's 15-year
thinking which went into the Fed's decision to hold
companion managed to shed seven basis points
steady when the minutes of the last meeting are
(0.07%) from last week's figure, sliding to 3.56%.
released on Wednesday. Other than that, there will
Popular FHA-backed 30-year FRMs improved by
be a few reports to work with, and others of uncertain
nine basis points, dropping back to an average
release. Call it a wash for mortgage rates, with a
4.04%, while the overall 5/1 Hybrid ARM gave up
slight move upward of a couple basis points.
8.0%
San Francisco Homes: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
(3-month moving average — $000's)
$1,500
350
$1,300
300
250
$1,100
200
$900
150
$700
100
$500
50
$300
0
0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JAS
8
9
0
1
2
3
Ave
Med
© 2013 rereport.com
Units
September Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
Prices
Unit
Yearly Change
Median
Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average
San Francisco $ 935,000 $1,238,404
176
29 108.8% 29.4%
32.2%
Monthly Change
Sales Median Average
-1.1%
-4.3%
-6.2%
Sales
-18.9%
-31.6%
D1: Northw est $ 908,000
$1,066,231
13
36 108.7%
-22.1%
-23.1%
18.2%
-28.8%
-28.1%
D2: Central West $ 860,250
$ 951,795
40
30 110.0%
0.6%
11.8%
110.5%
0.5%
2.1%
2.6%
D3: Southw est $ 775,000
$ 901,691
11
22 110.5%
22.0%
44.9%
-26.7%
19.2%
43.7%
-42.1%
D4: Tw in Peaks $1,350,000
$1,402,095
21
29 105.1%
55.2%
35.4%
-4.5%
19.5%
10.9%
-4.5%
D5: Central $1,545,000
$1,575,560
23
31 109.8%
11.2%
9.1%
-4.2%
-2.8%
-16.7%
-39.5%
D6: Central North $1,190,000
$1,678,750
4
39 105.4%
-34.9%
-8.1%
100.0%
-47.1%
-25.4%
100.0%
D7: North $5,250,000
$5,275,714
7
16 106.5% 105.9%
33.3%
133.3%
26.5%
23.4%
-30.0%
$
0
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
D8: Northeast $
-
-
0
0.0%
n/a
D9: Central East $1,017,500
Page 2
$1,110,618
22
23 116.7%
22.7%
26.8%
46.7%
8.2%
2.8%
-12.0%
D10: Southeast $ 660,000
$ 635,947
34
32 107.0%
34.7%
28.1%
-38.2%
11.9%
6.0%
-12.8%

3. San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA S
-10.0% 8
9
0
1
2
3
-20.0%
-30.0%
© 2013 rereport.com
FORECLOSURE STATISTICS
Notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure
process, in San Francisco rose 18.2% in August from
July. Year-over-year, notices were down 54%.
investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, the
property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will go
back to the bank.
Notices of sale, which set the date and time of an
auction, and serve as the homeowner's final notice
before sale, dropped 11.3% from July, and were down
42.7% year-over-year.
There were 45 sales cancelled last month.
After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are
only three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be
cancelled for reasons that include a successful loan
modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal
requirement to re-file the notice after extended
postponements.
Only two homes went back to the bank in August.
There were six in July.
There are currently 191 properties scheduled for sale.
With the recent surge in prices, many of them will
probably be cancelled.
The total number of properties owned by the banks was
down 44.3% year-over-year. The banks now own
approximately 274 properties in the city.
Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the bank
will place the opening bid. If a third party, typically an
San Francisco Condos: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
(3-month moving average — $000's)
$1,100
$1,000
$900
$800
$700
$600
$500
$400
$300
350
300
Table Definitions
_______________
250
Median Price
200
The price at which 50% of
prices were higher and
50%were lower.
150
100
50
0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JAS
8
9
0
1
2
3
Ave
Med
Average Price
0
Add all prices and divide by the
number of sales.
© 2013 rereport.com
Units
(Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts)
Prices
Unit
Yearly Change
Median
Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average
San Francisco $ 832,088 $ 944,698
223
33 105.1%
7.1%
5.0%
SP/LP
Sales price to list price ratio or
the price paid for the property
divided by the asking price.
September Sales Statistics
Monthly Change
Sales Median Average
-1.8%
2.1%
0.7%
Sales
-21.8%
DOI
Days of Inventory, or how many
days it would take to sell all the
property for sale at the current
rate of sales.
D1: Northw est $ 742,500
$ 721,167
12
22 109.7%
6.5%
-5.7%
20.0%
-23.8%
-28.1%
-33.3%
D2: Central West $ 850,000
$ 721,625
6
33 113.0%
8.6%
-24.8%
100.0%
2.8%
-4.3%
20.0%
D3: Southw est $ 785,000
$ 785,000
1
20 112.2% 141.5%
143.8%
-75.0%
57.0%
57.0%
0.0%
D4: Tw in Peaks $ 475,000
$ 475,000
1
29 109.2%
58.9%
0.0%
-5.8%
-8.1%
-83.3%
Pend
Property under contract to sell
that hasn’t closed escrow.
58.9%
D5: Central $1,127,500
$1,162,865
40
30 108.1%
17.6%
18.0%
14.3%
31.1%
22.3%
14.3%
D6: Central North $ 814,500
$ 795,846
26
35 105.5%
31.1%
27.3%
-13.3%
10.3%
-7.0%
-13.3%
D7: North $1,300,500
$1,655,375
20
38 103.2%
-0.7%
30.5%
33.3%
12.1%
46.0%
-31.0%
Inven
D8: Northeast $ 820,000
$ 928,093
27
23 101.8%
19.9%
-10.7%
-18.2%
0.9%
-11.7%
-46.0%
D9: Central East $ 750,000
$ 813,544
85
35 104.2%
2.4%
-9.2%
0.0%
-0.7%
-9.4%
-20.6%
D10: Southeast $ 365,000
$ 370,000
4
46 101.9%
5.0%
8.1%
-33.3%
9.0%
10.4%
33.3%
Number of properties actively
for sale as of the last day of the
month.

4. THE REAL ESTATE REPORT
San Francisco
Robb Fleischer
American Marketing Systems, Inc.
2800 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Go online to see the full report
with the district by district breakdown:
HTTP://WWW.AMSIRES.COM/STAFF/ROBB
San Francisco Homes: Sales Momentum
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0 0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JAS
8
9
0
1
2
3
-10.0
-15.0
-20.0
-25.0
© 2013 rereport.com
Sales
Pricing
San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Sales Momentum
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
-10.0
-20.0
0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JAS
8
9
0
1
2
3
-30.0
-40.0
-50.0
Sales
Pricing
© 2013 rereport.com
The Real Estate Market Trends Report is published and copyrighted by http://rereport.com.