The Real Estate Report April/May, local market trends San Francisco: "Recovery Continues " by AMSI's Real Estate Broker Robb Fleischer

1. local market trends
The Real Estate Report
SAN FRANCISCO
The sale price to list price ratio stayed over 100%
for the twenty-fifth month in a row: 108.2%.
This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers.
It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't
know what to do or where to begin,
give me a call and let's discuss your
situation and your options.
Recovery Continues
The median price for single-family, re-sale homes
stayed over $1,000,000 for the second month in a
row.
We are definitely in the recovery stage of this real
estate cycle.
Other signs we are in the recovery stage are:
• Declining foreclosures
• Low inventory
• Low mortgage rates
I expect we will stay in this stage for the next few
years. When the above signs start turning, we will
probably be at or nearing the next peak in the
market.
Some pundits are predicting the next peak in the
market will happen around 2020.
One thing to keep firmly in mind, real estate is very
local so what pundits say about the national real
estate market may or may not correlate with what
will happen in our local market.
MARCH MARKET STATISTICS
Prices of both homes and condos/lofts made
continued to be up, year-over-year, in March. The
median price for homes was up 5.3% from last
March.
Single-family, re-sales home sales fell 14.3%
year-over-year.
The sales price to list price ratio for homes has
been over 100% for twenty-four of the past
twenty-five months. It was 110% last month.
SALES MOMENTUM…
for homes edged up 0.1 of a point to +4.8. Sales
momentum for condos/lofts fell 0.7 of a point to
+0.9.
PRICING MOMENTUM…
for single-family homes was down 1.3 points to
18.2. Pricing momentum for condos/lofts was down
0.8 of a point to +13.1.
CONDO/LOFT STATISTICS
After setting an all-time record in January at
$950,000, the median price of condos/lofts did it
again in March to $970,000, a gain of 17% year-
over-year.
Condo/loft sales fell 5.9% compared to last March.
American Marketing Systems, Inc.
2800 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
(415) 447-2009
rfleischer@amsiemail.com
http://www.amsires.com/staff/robb
DRE #01403882
Robb Fleischer
Robb Fleischer | rfleischer@amsiemail.com | (415) 447-2009
APRIL/MAY 2014
Inside This Issue
> LOCAL MARKET TRENDS.....................1
> MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK ...............2
> HOME STATISTICS ..............................2
> FORECLOSURE STATS ........................3
> CONDO STATISTICS ............................3
> MOMENTUM CHARTS ..........................4
Mar 14 Feb 14 Mar 13
Home Sales: 168 150 196
Median Price: 1,000,032$ 1,062,500$ 920,500$
Average Price: 1,459,325$ 1,462,634$ 1,385,362$
Sale/List Price Ratio: 110.0% 107.6% 105.8%
Days on Market: 32 37 38
Mar 14 Feb 14 Mar 13
Condo Sales: 255 210 271
Median Price: 970,000$ 930,500$ 829,000$
Average Price: 1,067,657$ 982,552$ 958,235$
Sale/List Price Ratio: 108.2% 105.9% 104.2%
Days on Market: 31 38 41
(Lofts/Tow nhomes/TIC)
Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
Homes: detached
YTD Peak % Trough % Peak Trough
3-month 55% 6% 59% Jun-07 Feb-12
12-month 41% 8% 41% Apr-08 Mar-12
Homes: attached
3-month 54% 21% 58% Jul-08 Jan-12
12-month 37% 14% 37% Aug-08 Jan-12
San Francisco Price Differences
from January 2012 & Peak & Trough
-40.0%
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0.0%
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20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
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San Francisco Homes: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change
© 2014 rereport.com

2. Page 2
The Real Estate Report
The chart above shows the Na-
tional monthly average for 30-
year fixed rate mortgages as
compiled by HSH.com. The av-
erage includes mortgages of all
sizes, including conforming,
"expanded conforming," and
jumbo.
MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK
Apr 4, 2014 -- The freshest economic indicators suggest
that we are starting to move away from any weather-
related holdback in growth, but it looks as though it
will be more of a "slipping away from" than a "shaking
off" process.
Although even the first estimate for first quarter 2014
GDP growth is still weeks away, present expectations
are that we are unlikely to see a reading of even the
2.6 percent rate attained in the fourth quarter of last
year. However, much of the weakness seems to
have occurred in the first two months of the year, with
the economy in March finding a few more spots of
traction amid the melting ice and snow.
Should this pattern persist, and it looks as though it
may, we are likely to see growth in the second quar-
ter move higher, but it will be summer before we
know for sure. Before the "official" number comes,
we should have plenty of evidence one way or the
other. If this is the case, somewhat firmer mortgage
rates are more likely as we go.
At the moment, though, we remain fairly rangebound
at levels seen back in January, but remain below
2014 highs.
HSH.com's broad-market mortgage tracker -- our
weekly Fixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator (FRMI) --
found the overall average rate for 30-year fixed-rate
mortgages rose by a single basis points (0.01%) to
land at 4.49%, its highest level since late January.
The FRMI's 15-year companion also added one basis
point, climbing to 3.63% for the week. Popular FHA-
backed 30-year FRMs rose by just two basis points,
rising to 4.16% for the period, as these fully-insured
loans continue to have the lowest prices in the mar-
ket by a fair margin. Finally, the overall 5/1 Hybrid
ARM increased by just one one-hundredths of a per-
centage point (0.01%), climbing to 3.18% for the
week.
Construction spending didn't add much to the eco-
nomic tally in February, rising by a scant 0.1 percent.
Spending on residential projects was off by 0.8 per-
cent. To the extent that weather affected the con-
struction numbers here, we may see a move higher
when March data become available early next month.
We may see a little settling of rates next week, possi-
bly a slight decline of a couple of basis points.
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San Francisco Homes: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
(3-month moving average — $000's)
Ave Med Units © 2014 rereport.com
Unit
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco 1,000,032$ 1,459,325$ 168 32 110.0% 8.6% 5.3% -14.3% -5.9% -0.2% 12.0%
D1: Northwest 1,263,000$ 1,564,083$ 12 54 106.0% 0.2% 7.9% -29.4% 2.3% 10.5% 0.0%
D2: Central West 952,500$ 974,637$ 36 33 112.4% 16.9% 3.4% 9.1% 6.8% 10.5% 111.8%
D3: Southwest 743,000$ 831,600$ 10 40 114.7% 43.4% 59.1% 233.3% 6.1% 1.2% -28.6%
D4: Twin Peaks 1,355,000$ 1,501,962$ 26 27 110.9% 26.9% 25.4% 4.0% 23.4% 22.7% 36.8%
D5: Central 2,505,000$ 2,652,171$ 25 16 115.1% 55.7% 45.2% -34.2% 8.9% 23.2% 0.0%
D6: Central North -$ -$ 0 0 0.0% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
D7: North 4,500,000$ 4,452,714$ 7 14 99.7% 5.9% -4.5% -46.2% -9.8% -22.0% 16.7%
D8: Northeast 6,500,000$ 6,500,000$ 1 12 100.0% 124.1% 124.1% -50.0% 124.1% 140.2% -75.0%
D9: Central East 1,220,000$ 1,203,750$ 12 33 113.6% 21.0% 17.7% -29.4% -2.6% -6.4% -33.3%
D10: Southeast 645,000$ 654,499$ 39 37 109.4% 18.0% 19.8% -11.4% 2.0% 6.1% 39.3%
March Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change
3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%
01-06
04-06
07-06
10-06
01-07
04-07
07-07
10-07
01-08
04-08
07-08
10-08
01-09
04-09
07-09
10-09
01-10
04-10
07-10
10-10
01-11
04-11
07-11
10-11
01-12
04-12
07-12
10-12
01-13
04-13
07-13
10-13
01-14
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates

3. Table Definitions
_______________
Median Price
The price at which 50% of
prices were higher and
50%were lower.
Average Price
Add all prices and divide by the
number of sales.
SP/LP
Sales price to list price ratio or
the price paid for the property
divided by the asking price.
DOI
Days of Inventory, or how many
days it would take to sell all the
property for sale at the current
rate of sales.
Pend
Property under contract to sell
that hasn’t closed escrow.
Inven
Number of properties actively
for sale as of the last day of the
month.
Notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure proc-
ess, in San Francisco continues to drop. They were
down 4.7% in February from January. Year-over-year,
notices were down 11.1%. There were 40 notices in
February.
Notices of sale, which set the date and time of an auc-
tion, and serve as the homeowner's final notice before
sale, dropped 45.1% from January, and they were
down 63.2% year-over-year. There were 31.
After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are
only three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be
cancelled for reasons that include a successful loan
modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal re-
quirement to re-file the notice after extended postpone-
ments.
FORECLOSURE STATISTICS
Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the bank
will place the opening bid. If a third party, typically an
investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, the
property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will go
back to the bank.
There were 26 sales cancelled last month.
Only five homes went back to the bank in February.
There are currently 124 properties scheduled for sale.
With the recent surge in prices, many of them will
probably be cancelled.
The total number of properties owned by the banks was
down 35.1% year-over-year. The banks now own ap-
proximately 239 properties in the city.
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San Francisco Condos: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
(3-month moving average — $000's)
Ave Med Units © 2014 rereport.com
-30.0%
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San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change
© 2014 rereport.com
Unit
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco 970,000$ 1,067,657$ 255 31 108.2% 17.0% 11.4% -5.9% 4.2% 8.7% 21.4%
D1: Northwest 1,100,000$ 1,063,222$ 9 32 110.0% 17.7% 7.4% -35.7% 8.8% 12.5% 0.0%
D2: Central West 880,000$ 880,000$ 2 25 103.2% 46.7% 13.1% -33.3% 8.6% 8.6% 0.0%
D3: Southwest 475,000$ 559,333$ 3 48 114.1% 23.2% 47.7% -40.0% 15.9% 36.4% 0.0%
D4: Twin Peaks 620,000$ 647,000$ 4 24 109.3% 18.2% 12.9% -33.3% 3.5% 8.4% -20.0%
D5: Central 1,059,000$ 1,084,124$ 51 29 111.3% 16.4% 14.1% 34.2% -0.3% -0.3% 82.1%
D6: Central North 921,000$ 985,196$ 29 29 110.3% 26.7% 31.4% -21.6% 27.0% 28.6% 45.0%
D7: North 1,280,000$ 1,545,243$ 19 17 112.5% 8.9% 17.9% -60.4% -6.2% 21.3% 26.7%
D8: Northeast 885,000$ 1,065,039$ 55 41 105.8% -14.1% -10.0% 52.8% -2.7% -2.0% 66.7%
D9: Central East 955,000$ 1,048,048$ 79 28 105.9% 21.7% 25.8% -2.5% -2.6% 5.3% -12.2%
D10: Southeast 470,000$ 521,667$ 3 27 100.5% 47.8% 64.0% 200.0% 6.3% 56.0% -40.0%
March Sales Statistics
(Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts)
Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change

4. The Real Estate Market Trends Report is published and copyrighted by http://rereport.com.
THE REAL ESTATE REPORT
San Francisco
Robb Fleischer
American Marketing Systems, Inc.
2800 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Go online to see the full report
with the district by district breakdown:
HTTP://WWW.AMSIRES.COM/STAFF/ROBB
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San Francisco Homes: Sales Momentum
Sales Pricing © 2014 rereport.com
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San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Sales Momentum
Sales Pricing © 2014 rereport.com