The Robb Fleischer’s Real Estate Report – Local Market Trends San Francisco includes monthly updates regarding mortgage rates, market statistics, sales momentum, pricing momentum, trends at a glance, foreclosure statistics and more.

1. Robb Fleischer
The Real Estate Report
local market trends
SAN FRANCISCO
Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
(Lof ts/Tow nhomes/TIC)
San Francisco Price Differences
from January 2014 & Peak & Trough
Condo/loft sales were down 4.3% compared to last
October. Year-to-date, condo/loft sales are down
3.4%.
The sale price to list price ratio stayed over 100%
for the thirty-second month in a row:
106.5%.
This is an extraordinarily tough market
for buyers. It's important to be calm
and realistic. If you don't know what to
do or where to begin, give me a call
and let's discuss your situation and
your options.
Quantitative Easing and Mortgage Rates
The Federal Reserve has ended quantitative
easing, again. What does that mean for mortgage
rates?
For the moment, nothing. The Fed isn’t expected to
raise short term interest rates until the middle of
next year.
Also, the Fed has a very limited ability to affect
long-term interest rates.
Plus, the dollar reached a four-year high recently.
Why? Because the economies of other countries
around the world are still moribund and that means
money is pouring into the United States keeping
interest rates low.
We don’t expect that to change for a couple of
years.
As we noted last month, the lack of inventory will
push prices up. It did.
Last month the median price for single-family, re-sale
homes reached another all-time high, as did
the average price.
OCTOBER MARKET STATISTICS
The median price for homes was up 32.5% year-over-
year in October. The average price was up
24.1%.
Single-family, re-sale home sales were up, year-over-
year, for only the second time since last
December, gaining 11.2%. Year-to-date, home
sales are down 15.2%.
The sales price to list price ratio for homes has
been over 100% for thirty-one of the past thirty-two
months. It was 110.6% last month.
SALES MOMENTUM…
for homes was up 1.8 points -16.0. Sales
momentum for condos/lofts dropped 2.1 points to –
4.3.
PRICING MOMENTUM…
for single-family homes was up 1.5 points to +14.
Pricing momentum for condos/lofts was off 0.2 of a
point to +12.0.
CONDO/LOFT STATISTICS
The median price of condos/lofts was up 3.8% from
September. Year-over-year, the median price was
up 10.3%.
American Marketing Systems, Inc.
2800 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
(415) 447-2009
rfleischer@amsiemail.com
http://www.amsires.com/staff/robb
DRE #01403882
Robb Fleischer | rfleischer@amsiemail.com | (415) 447-2009
NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2014
Inside This Issue
> LOCAL MARKET TRENDS ..................... 1
> MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK ............... 2
> HOME STATISTICS .............................. 2
> FORECLOSURE STATS ........................ 3
> CONDO STATISTICS ............................ 3
> MOMENTUM CHARTS .......................... 4
Oct 14 Sep 14 Oct 13
Home Sales: 269 183 242
Median Price: $1 ,208,000 $1 ,035,000 $ 911,944
Av erage Price: $1 ,686,754 $1 ,334,436 $1 ,359,182
Sale/List Price Ratio: 110.6% 110.8% 108.0%
Day s on Market: 29 26 34
Oct 14 Sep 14 Oct 13
Condo Sales: 309 233 323
Median Price: $ 9 55,000 $ 9 20,000 $ 8 65,900
Av erage Price: $1 ,069,320 $1 ,023,825 $1 ,006,920
Sale/List Price Ratio: 106.5% 104.9% 104.8%
Day s on Market: 37 37 38
Homes: detached
YTD Peak % Trough % Peak Trough
3-month 13% 15% 72% Jun-07 Feb-12
12-month 12% 17% 53% Apr-08 Mar-12
Homes: attached
3-month 11% 19% 56% Jul-08 Jan-12
12-month 11% 23% 47% Aug-08 Jan-12
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
-20.0%
-30.0%
-40.0%
0
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San Francisco Homes: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change

2. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
07-14
04-14
01-14
10-13
07-13
04-13
01-13
10-12
07-12
04-12
01-12
10-11
07-11
04-11
01-11
10-10
07-10
04-10
01-10
10-09
07-09
04-09
01-09
10-08
07-08
04-08
3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%
Page 2
The Real Estate Report
The chart above shows the Na-tional
monthly average for 30-
year fixed rate mortgages as
compiled by HSH.com. The av-erage
includes mortgages of all
sizes, including conforming,
expanded conforming, and
jumbo.
MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK
Mortgage Rates Firming Slightly
October 31, 2014 -- Rebounding stock markets and com-forting
economic data have reassured investors that
things are pretty good at the moment, and mortgage
rates continued on a gentle firming path after a tu-multuous
stretch in mid-month.
In a direct acknowledgment that the economy is on
solid footing (and despite a rocky month of October
for financial markets) the Fed followed its predeter-mined
path to end the accumulation of Mortgage-
Backed Securities and Treasury bonds. Quantitative
Easing (QE) hasn't fully ended, though, as the Fed
will continue to recycle (reinvest) inbound funds
from maturing Treasury bonds and principal pay-ments
on mortgages into like-sized purchases of new
bonds. As such, it will keep its portfolio of holdings
level and continue to help foster a low long-term
interest rate environment for at least a while longer
yet.
The actual end of QE will begin when the Fed starts
to raise short-term interest rates at some point and
stops recycling cash; present indications are that this
process of normalization will begin in the second or
third quarters of 2015, so we will likely have a
considerable period (the Fed's language) of 6 to 9
months before that occurs.
In the meantime, mortgage and underlying interest
rates cannot regularly ignore good economic news,
and have been steadily firming in the days after a
mid-month panic fit by the stock and bond markets.
There's no spike in rates to be expected, but we are
seeing a bit of a gradual uptick at the moment.
HSH.com's broad-market mortgage tracker -- our
weekly Fixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator (FRMI) --
found that the overall average rate for 30-year fixed-rate
mortgages firmed up by five basis points this
week (0.05%) rising to 4.09 percent. The FRMI's 15-
year companion also saw an increase of five basis
points (0.05%), as this popular refinancing product
edged up to 3.34 percent. Fully-insured FHA-backed
30-year FRMs remain a bargain even with a four
basis point rise in the average this week, as the pre-sent
3.78 percent average remains well below even
conforming product. Finally, the overall 5/1 Hybrid
ARM reversed course from last week, adding five
basis points to increase to an average 3.06 percent.
350
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50
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$1,700
$1,500
$1,300
$1,100
$900
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$300
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San Francisco Homes: Sold Prices Unit Sales
(3-month moving average —$000's)
Ave Med Units

3. October Sales Statistics
Unit
(Single-family Homes)
Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco $1 ,208,000 $1 ,686,754 269 29 110.6% 32.5% 24.1% 11.2% 16.7% 26.4% 47.0%
D1: Northwest $ 1,619,000 $1 ,828,757 28 20 113.4% 13.2% 8.2% 40.0% 24.5% 19.1% 47.4%
D2: Central West $ 9 43,000 $1 ,044,021 43 39 114.0% 17.9% 28.2% -17.3% -4.7% 0.6% 16.2%
D3: Southwest $ 850,000 $ 8 86,868 16 55 110.0% 2.1% 5.6% 0.0% 5.6% -3.0% 23.1%
D4: Twin Peaks $1 ,311,500 $1 ,461,906 32 22 113.3% 24.9% 20.9% 10.3% 16.6% 7.8% 28.0%
D5: Central $ 1,862,500 $2 ,430,000 38 17 112.5% 16.8% 34.7% 8.6% 4.1% 13.5% 123.5%
D6: Central North $ 2,025,000 $2 ,054,000 7 18 106.6% 30.6% 25.8% 133.3% -26.4% -25.3% 600.0%
D7: North $ 4,135,938 $5 ,126,849 20 28 104.5% 7.3% 9.6% 53.8% -5.0% 7.8% 185.7%
D8: Northeast $3 ,495,000 $2 ,595,000 3 17 100.5% -14.5% -36.2% -25.0% n/a n/a n/a
D9: Central East $1 ,296,000 $1 ,350,517 30 22 115.9% 22.8% 10.2% 20.0% 11.7% 6.9% 42.9%
D10: Southeast $ 7 36,500 $ 7 52,160 52 36 111.3% 20.7% 18.6% 15.6% 3.9% 1.4% 20.9%
01-08

4. Table Definitions
_______________
Median Price
The price at which 50% of
prices were higher and
50%were lower.
Average Price
Add all prices and divide by the
number of sales.
SP/LP
Sales price to list price ratio or
the price paid for the property
divided by the asking price.
DOI
Days of Inventory, or how many
days it would take to sell all the
property for sale at the current
rate of sales.
Pend
Property under contract to sell
that hasn’t closed escrow.
Inven
Number of properties actively
for sale as of the last day of the
month.
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
-20.0%
FORECLOSURE STATISTICS
Notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure proc-ess,
in San Francisco fell 1.6% in September from Au-gust.
Year-over-year, notices were jumped 59%. There
were 62 notices in September.
Notices of sale, which set the date and time of an auc-tion,
and serve as the homeowner's final notice before
sale, fell 17.9% from August, and they were down
14.8% year-over-year. There were 23.
After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are
only three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be
cancelled for reasons that include a successful loan
modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal re-quirement
to re-file the notice after extended postpone-ments.
Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the bank
will place the opening bid. If a third party, typically an
investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, the
property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will go
back to the bank.
There were 24 sales cancelled last month.
Three homes went back to the bank in September.
There are currently 107 properties scheduled for sale.
With the recent surge in prices, many of them will
probably be cancelled.
The total number of properties owned by the banks was
down 14.3% year-over-year. The banks now own ap-proximately
222 properties in the city.
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San Francisco Condos: Sold Prices Unit Sales
(3-month moving average —$000's)
Ave Med Units

5. -30.0%
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San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change
© 2014 rereport.com
October Sales Statistics
(Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lof ts)
Unit
Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco $ 9 55,000 $1 ,069,320 309 37 106.5% 10.3% 6.2% -4.3% 3.8% 4.4% 32.6%
D1: Northwest $ 1,400,000 $1 ,303,095 21 34 104.8% 24.4% 20.5% 162.5% 51.1% 30.3% -16.0%
D2: Central West $ 8 45,000 $ 8 30,833 6 23 115.5% 11.3% 7.4% -33.3% 18.2% 16.2% 500.0%
D3: Southwest $ 470,000 $ 4 67,500 4 46 102.6% -10.5% -19.1% 33.3% -16.5% -17.0% 100.0%
D4: Twin Peaks $ 5 57,500 $ 5 71,667 6 26 106.9% 1.5% 8.9% 20.0% -7.1% -6.5% 100.0%
D5: Central $ 1,187,000 $1 ,155,133 45 32 112.2% 6.5% 7.8% -19.6% -1.1% -0.8% 36.4%
D6: Central North $ 1,070,500 $ 953,771 30 56 111.7% 37.2% 5.2% -28.6% 16.4% 1.9% 15.4%
D7: North $ 1,525,000 $1 ,532,205 28 26 106.4% 19.8% 17.1% -22.2% -3.9% 1.5% 100.0%
D8: Northeast $ 750,000 $1 ,015,311 47 46 104.8% 0.0% 4.6% -4.1% -12.4% -4.5% 6.8%
D9: Central East $ 9 30,000 $1 ,006,824 119 34 104.0% 9.0% 1.0% 9.2% 3.1% 2.1% 56.6%
D10: Southeast $ 5 02,500 $ 5 80,833 3 70 106.4% 16.9% 22.7% 0.0% 8.1% 46.4% -40.0%

6. THE REAL ESTATE REPORT
San Francisco
Robb Fleischer
American Marketing Systems, Inc.
2800 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Go online to see the full report
with the district by district breakdown:
HTTP://WWW.AMSIRES.COM/STAFF/ROBB
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The Real Estate Market Trends Report is published and copyrighted by http://rereport.com.
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San Francisco Homes: Sales Momentum
Sales Pricing © 2014 rereport.com
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San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Sales Momentum
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