This document discusses the importance of including risk factors in schedule risk analysis. It provides examples of risk events and risk factors, and shows how ignoring risk factors can lead to distorted results. A simulation was run on a construction project both with and without including risk factors. The results showed that including risk factors extended the projected project completion date by 75 days. The output also identified major construction works as more critical than infrastructure works when risk factors are considered. Incorporating risk factors provides a truer reflection of project risk exposure.

1. Risk Factor
Identified, Quantified, and Build-In impacts in Schedule Risk Analysis

2. Commonpractice:ScheduleRiskAnalysis process
• All identified risks that have impact on schedule are basically assigned
into activities on schedule.
• Some risks may assigned to multiple activities, hence an activity can be
influenced by multiple risks. However, many users are not aware that
prior assigning process, risks need to be categorized either Risk Event or
Risk Factor.
• Ignoring Risk Factor is “risk” to schedule risk analysis process, that will
lead to distorted results.
• This paper intended to briefly shown how much the variance could
derived from the simulation output “with” and “without” Risk Factor
AND also hoping for feedback on how to improve the process.
• Primavera Risk Analysis is a tool used for this presentation and it is
assumed that the reader(s) has understanding and experiences of using
it.

3. RiskFactor VS RiskEvent
• Risk Event
Is an incident/occasion that may or may not happen, that affects through
impacts on particular activities in the project.
• Risk Factor
Is an unknown element that affects the project. It is expressed as % and
resulting from it, reduces or increases the activities it affects.

4. Examples
Risk Events Risk Factors
Unavailability of Resources Weather
Nobody is willing to do casting, hence
casting works shall delayed.
All Offshore installation activities will
prolonged 50% longer than planned
duration.
Land Subside Productivity Labor
Zone A1/D1 has weak ground, piling work
may get effected in case soil strengthening
not properly done.
Fabrication time will takes 20% longer than
initial planned.
Transportation Strike Vendor Performance
Delivery time of materials may extended by
2 weeks, due to strike attack planned by
workers union
LD Exposure will goes up by 50% if work
progressing continue on a flat line.

5. “Without”RiskFactor
Allrisksaretakenasriskevents.
SimulationonProjectA(dummy).
Constructionof 25Storey CeylonServiceApartment

6. All risks (Risk Factor + Risk Events) are assigned to activities in quantitative tab

7. 49%
49%
49%
50%
50%
50%
53%
54%
54%
55%ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A6680:012 - Landslide and Subside
ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A6690:012 - Landslide and Subside
ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A6680 - Water Reticulation
ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A6690 - Road Work & Lighting
ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A7530 - Formworkon Columns
ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A6930 - Formworkon Columns
ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A2370 - Formwork Pile Cap & Install Reinforcing
ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A7230 - Formworkon Columns
ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A2330 - Formwork on Column
ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A2090 - Formwork Pile Cap & Install Reinforcing
Elaeis Condominium (Pre-mitigated)
Duration Sensitivity: Entire Plan - All tasks
Water Reticulation and Road Work
& Lighting tasks have highest duration
sensitivity. Noted these two activities
(Infrastructure) are planned at the last
quarter of project duration.
2%
-2%
3%
5%
-7%
9%
16%
16%
23%
25%006 - Availability of Resources
012 - Landslide and Subside
005 - Late drawing & Instructions
009 - Suitability of Materials
001 - Changes in Work
002 - Subsurfaces Geological
013 - Soil availability of Land Fill
001 - Changes in Work
001 - Changes in Work
014 - Insolvency of Subcontractor
Elaeis Condominium (Pre-mitigated)
Duration Sensitivity
Risk affects multiple activities. In
This presentation, Risk Availability
of resources and Landslide &
Subside gives effect most.

8. P80 stands at 17 April 2015

9. “With”RiskFactor
Impactplanmodelisacombinationofriskevents
andriskfactors.
SimulationonProjectA(dummy).
Constructionof 25Storey CeylonServiceApartment

10. DetermineRiskFactor
Take out Risk Events (Risk Factor )from
Quantitative tab. Edit Risk Factor
dialogue box.
Set 3 point estimates in %
ranges and % likelihood.
In this example, we
set zero likelihood
of correlation

11. Assigning Risk Factor to task. In this example, we apply risk to entire section of the
WBS (Summaries). Indirectly it reflects correlation due to common cause.

12. Important Notes to understand. Sources from Primavera Risk Analysis Help.

13. 04/04/2015 17:00 27/06/2015 01:00 18/09/2015 09:00
Distribution (start of interval)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
Hits
0% 18/02/2015 16:00
5% 17/03/2015 17:00
10% 02/04/2015 09:00
15% 13/04/2015 09:00
20% 20/04/2015 09:00
25% 27/04/2015 09:00
30% 01/05/2015 11:00
35% 08/05/2015 09:00
40% 13/05/2015 17:00
45% 18/05/2015 17:00
50% 25/05/2015 09:00
55% 01/06/2015 09:00
60% 05/06/2015 14:00
65% 11/06/2015 14:00
70% 18/06/2015 14:00
75% 24/06/2015 15:00
80% 01/07/2015 16:00
85% 13/07/2015 09:00
90% 29/07/2015 14:00
95% 24/08/2015 09:00
100% 30/11/2015 10:00
CumulativeFrequency
Elaeis Condominium (Pre-mitigated)
EntirePlan: FinishDate
P80 now stands at 1 July 2015

14. 72%
72%
72%
72%
72%
72%
73%
73%
73%
74%ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A7080 - Reinforcement for Beam/Slab
ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A7040 - Reinforcement works on Column
ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A7190 - Formwork for Beam/Slab
ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A7100 - Reinforcement works on Column
ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A7010 - Formwork for Beam/Slab
ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A7110 - Formwork on Column
ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A7000 - Concrete for Column
ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A7020 - Reinforcement for Beam/Slab
ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A7050 - Formwork for Column
ELAEIS-RSRC LDD-A7030 - Concrete for Beam/Slab
Elaeis Condominium (Pre-mitigated)
Duration Sensitivity: Entire Plan - All tasks
2%
-2%
3%
5%
-7%
9%
16%
16%
23%
25%006- Availabilityof Resources
012- LandslideandSubside
005- Latedrawing& Instructions
009- Suitabilityof Materials
001- Changes inWork
002- Subsurfaces Geological
013- Soilavailabilityof LandFill
001- Changes inWork
001- Changes inWork
014- Insolvencyof Subcontractor
4-Storey Elaeis Condominium for Sime Darby Development(Pre-mitigated)
Duration Sensitivity
Not much changes as observed
on the criticality rank
More activities are sensitive to the risk
Impact. Noted at this time,
that they are those activities (Structure)
that planned at earlier stage of construction

15. Risk: Availability of Resources confirmed “driving” project schedule.
Pull out from Risk Factor menu – Show Tornado

16. Conclusions.
• P80 for both models have different suggestion dates
“With” Risk Factor = 17 April 2015
“Without” Risk Factor = 1 July 2015
Variance = 75 days
• The output of Risk Factor model had indicated that, Major Construction
Works are critical to manage properly with Risk: Availability Resources
and Risk: Productivity Labor tagged along with, rather than having
Infrastructure works as crucial.
• Incorporating Risk Factor would enabling The User to bring true reality
of the project environment into the model AND give some excellent
reflection of risk exposure.

17. ThankYou