Responding To Market Shifts

www.rallydev.com @zachnies! ©2014!
Innovation: 
Responding to market shifts"
Zach Nies – Chief Technologist!

Zach Nies
@zachnies
Chief Technologist
Rally Software
Faculty
University of Colorado at Boulder

The biggest risk you face 
is changing"

Risk: 
failing to respond
to market shifts"

ANOTHER RISK…?

An example …"

Consumer data
company"

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Market$Share$
Desktop8Share8 Mobile8Share8 NaGve8App8Share8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1 80% market share
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Market$Share$
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2 “We need a native mobile app.”
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Market$Share$
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3 App specification begins
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Market$Share$
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
4 Startup competitor ships 1.0
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Market$Share$
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Market$Share$
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
6 App development begins
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Market$Share$
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Market$Share$
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8 Native app ships
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Market$Share$
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1 80% market share
2 “We need a native mobile app.”
6 App development begins
8 Native app ships
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12 months to write
speciﬁcation"
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Market$Share$
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3 App specification begins 6 App development begins
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Market$Share$
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6 App development begins 8 Native app ships
9 months to build app"
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21 months to respond"
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Market$Share$
5 8
12 months to forever 
lose half the market share"
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Gut wrenching"

What’s 
going on here?"

Desirable"
Feasible"
Viable"
Viral"
Sustainable" https://www.flickr.com/photos/solarbotics/8202925319/

Desirable"
Feasible"
Viable"
Viral"
Sustainable"
Will rapidly change markets"

Connected tribes"
https://www.flickr.com/photos/shankbone/6183443813

Time needed to reach
Feasible, Desirable,
Viable & Viral 
and reshape the market"

Some examples …"

1984!

2006!

About 20 years!

2001!

5 years!

2007!

2010!

3 years!

2012!

2 years!

1979!

1989!

10 years!

2.5 years!

1.5 years!

Time needed to 
form a tribe 
and spread the word"

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/90/Ford_Pinto_runabout_(1).jpg

8 years!

Market expectations
can change and
spread quickly"

Impact 
on companies"

500

Question:"
!
How long does the average company
on this list survive?!

1958: "
Average lifespan was 61 years!
!
2012: "
Average lifespan was 18 years!

Market shifts 
create uncertainty "

Is your business
getting 
more certain?"

Uncertainty"

High" Low"
Uncertainty"

Chaotic" Obvious"
High" Low"
Uncertainty"

Chaotic" Obvious"Complicated"Complex"
High" Low"
Uncertainty"

Chaotic" Complicated"Complex"
Uncertainty"
High" Low"
Obvious"

Actions" Rules"Analysis"Experiments"
Chaotic" Complex" Complicated" Obvious"
Uncertainty"

Chaotic" Complex" Complicated"
Bureaucrat"Engineer"Fireﬁghter" Entrepreneur"
Obvious"
Actions" Rules"Analysis"Experiments"
Uncertainty"

Chaotic" Complex" Complicated"
Examples"
Obvious"

Order 
ofﬁcesupplies"
Examples"

Update 
termsofservice"
Order 
ofﬁcesupplies"
Examples"

Chaotic" Complex" Complicated" Obvious"Setsales 
compplan"
Update 
termsofservice"
Order 
ofﬁcesupplies"
Examples"

Create 
marketbuzz"
Setsales 
compplan"
Update 
termsofservice"
Order 
ofﬁcesupplies"
Examples"

Increase
retentionrate"
Create 
marketbuzz"
Setsales 
compplan"
Update 
termsofservice"
Order 
ofﬁcesupplies"
Examples"

Recover 
ﬂoodedservers"
Increase
retentionrate"
Create 
marketbuzz"
Setsales 
compplan"
Update 
termsofservice"
Order 
ofﬁcesupplies"
Examples"

Chaotic" Complicated"Complex" Obvious"
Dynamics"

Chaotic" Complicated"Complex"
Disruption"
Obvious"
Dynamics"

Common language 
to discuss uncertainty"

Align actions 
with uncertainty"

Typical approach"

http://www.flickr.com/photos/isaacmao/380257543
Create a plan to
predict the future"

Budget approval"
"
Product deﬁnition"
Product requirements"
Detailed plan"
Alpha release"
Beta release"
Final release"
FIRST CONTACT WITH CU"

Budget approval"
Market research"
Product deﬁnition"
Product requirements"
Detailed plan"
Alpha release"
Beta release"
Final release"

Budget approval"
Market research"
Project deﬁnition"
Project requirements"
Detailed plan"
Alpha release"
Beta release"
Final release"

Budget approval"
Market research"
Detailed plan"
Development"
"
Final release"

Budget approval"
Market research"
Detailed plan"
Development"
Veriﬁcation"
"

Budget approval"
Market research"
Detailed plan"
Development"
Veriﬁcation"
Final release"

HOW MANY
GUESSES?"

FIRST CONTACT
WITH USERS"

http://www.flickr.com/photos/oregondot/4132135156

Obscure 
the uncertainty 
with details of a
false precision"

Embrace, reveal,
and mitigate 
uncertainty"

How did we 
get here?"

“the greatest prosperity
can exist only when that
individual has reached
his highest state of
efﬁciency; that is, when
he is turning out his
largest daily output.”"

Maximize 
individual efﬁciency"

“All we are doing is looking
at the time line from the
moment the customer gives
us an order to the point
when we collect the cash.
And we are reducing that
time line by removing the
non-value-added wastes.”"

Maximize 
the ﬂow of value"

How do we
maximize 
the ﬂow of value 
in knowledge work?"

Replace Waterfall execution 
with Lean execution"

Product
Backlog
Iteration
2 Weeks
Daily
Meeting
Iteration
Backlog
Product
Increment
ITERATIONMECHANICS
Scrum
Scrum

FLOWMECHANICS
(all independent cadences)
Ready
queue
prioritize retrospectgroom release release
WIP
Target
Kanban
Kanban

http://www.infoq.com/articles/hiranabe-lean-agile-kanban

5 2 2 4
the Kanban board
Ready
Kanban

Maximize 
the ﬂow 
of value work"

What if 
we don’t know
exactly what the
customer values?"

Magic box of innovation"
https://www.flickr.com/photos/wonderlane/7923402476

https://www.flickr.com/photos/psmithy/3382830261
Everyone else"

Everyone 
can innovate"

http://www.flickr.com/photos/memekiller/4564410767

Turn hunches"
into evidence"

Business"
"
"
"
Initiative"

AssumptionsCanvas Name: Date:
Key Assumption
Dependent Assumptions
Falsified Assumptions
Other AssumptionsOther Assumptions
Key Assumption
Key Assumption
I-1
Reminders will
help gift givers
We know when
giving events
will happen
Text messages
are acceptable
reminders
Suggestions
will motivate
givers
Recipients
want gifts on
time
We can give
reasonable
suggestions
We can get
receiver
preference
data
We can send
timely text
messages
Partners want
referral leads
We can make
money through
partner
referrals
We can get
enough parter
inventory
Our leads will
buy gifts
Facebook adds
will drive
traffic
A mobile first
product
strategy

Key assumptions"
Knowledge"

Frame"

Build"

Measure"

Collect"
http://www.flickr.com/photos/mrpetersononline/4977025601

Analyze"

Organize"

Learn"

25%

25% 55%

Empirical learning"

Advice 
from a master …"

http://www.richard-feynman.net/gallery.htm

Understand 
what is valuable"

One last thing to
keep in mind"

Adoption something
new is a human
phenomenon "

Not a technological
phenomenon "

Need a Lean and
human-centered
approach!

Are your actions
aligned with the
level of uncertainty?"

Enable innovation
from everyone"

Respond to change"

For more information please visit. !
http://www.rallydev.com/els!
http://www.rallydev.com/frame!
!

Responding To Market Shifts

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