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A Research to Policy Seminar:
Intergenerational Relations in
Challenging Times
Thursday 27th September 2018
This event is kindly supported by Newcastle University's Institute for Ageing
@NCLAgeing @ILCUK #intergenerationalrelations
Welcome
Clive Bolton
ILC-UK Advisor
This event is kindly supported by Newcastle University's Institute for Ageing
@NCLAgeing @ILCUK #intergenerationalrelations
Thomas Scharf
FAcSS, Institute of Health & Society, and Newcastle
University Institute for Ageing
'Intergenerational Solidarity under
Threat? Perspectives from Ireland’
This event is kindly supported by Newcastle University's Institute for Ageing
@NCLAgeing @ILCUK #intergenerationalrelations
Outline
• Contextualising debates on intergenerational
relations
- Public discourse
- Research perspectives
• Changing Generations project in Ireland
(2011-2013)
- Research questions
- Methods
• Selected findings from interviews with
‘ordinary’ citizens and with ‘powerbrokers’
• Four key messages for research and public
policy
Intergenerational relations under
the spotlight
Intergenerational relations:
research perspectives
Structural
Associational
Affectual
Consensual
Normative
Functional
Public
Private
Public Private
Family-level Solidarities Public and Private
Solidarities
(Bengtson and Roberts, 1991)
Changing Generations
Broad aim:
Through research, to inform citizens, policy makers and
stakeholders and to facilitate dialogue in the interests of
fostering intergenerational justice in Ireland
Research questions:
• How do people of different ages in Ireland think about and
practice intergenerational solidarity?
• How do people across and within generations help each
other out in everyday life?
• What is the inter-relationship between solidarity at family
and societal levels?
• Is age/generation a source of conflict in Irish society?
• Do ‘ordinary’ people and ‘powerbrokers’ share similar
views about intergenerational solidarity in Ireland?
Research methods: Interviews
100 ‘ordinary’ people
Tell me about the help and
support, if any, you are
receiving from [and giving
to] other people now … in the
past… in the future
In what ways do you think that
you are contributing to Irish
society?
What do you see yourself
receiving from the State?
Do you think the State has got
the balance right in sharing
resources across different
generations? What could
change?
20 ‘powerbrokers’
Key positions of influence
Public, private and civil society
sectors
Regarding intergenerational
solidarity, asked about their:
o Agenda
o Views
o Role
‘Ordinary’ people sample
SES Men (N = 46) Women (N = 54) Totals
18-25
years
26-50
years
51-74
years
75+
years
18-25
years
26-50
years
51-74
years
75+
years
High 4 5 8 3 1 10 3 2 36
Middle 1 4 3 2 4 5 3 5 27
Low 6 4 5 1 6 6 4 5
37
Totals 11 13 16 6 11 21 10 12 100
Civil Society Sector Private Sector Public Sector
Head of trade union Head of business
confederation
Former university president
President of Christian
charity
Head of multi-national
corporation
Former prison governor
Religious leader Veteran entrepreneur Former Taoiseach
President of students’
organisation
Young entrepreneur Research professor
President of youth
movement
Former editor of daily
national newspaper
Former head of national
agency
Director of theatre
company
Assistant Secretary
General of government
department
Director of older people’s
organisation
Judge
Head of older people’s
NGO
8 5 7
‘Powerbrokers’ sample
Strong inter-generational solidarity
• Deservingness of older people, arising from life-
long contributions, featured prominently; but also
additional justifications (lack of life chances in the
past; expense of medical care)
• The idea of taking from one generation in the
interest of another barely featured (exception: the
very well-off)
• Pitting generations/age groups against each other
in media, policy discussion or research poses
choices that are not ‘real’ – but rather reflect crude
and uninformed notions of solidarities/conflict
Cross-generational solidarity
Noelle, Teenager, Middle SES,
Retail Worker
“[Older people] get the pensions but
they work[ed] for it, it is their money.
... They have worked all their lives.
... They should be able to sit back
and have no financial worries. ...
Anyone over seventy ... they
deserve a medical card in case
anything ever did go wrong. ... If
they didn’t have that, all their money
would go on treatment. I think
everyone should be entitled to a
medical card over seventy.”
Tommy, 70+, Middle SES,
Retired Public Sector Worker
“It is an old cliché, but it will cost
more at the end of day if
[disadvantaged] kids are not
looked after properly...inner city
and rundown areas...need extra
help. That is where the big effort
should be to eradicate a lot of that
old stuff and try to bring everyone
up a bit...I think it is terrible to see
that they were going to cut down on
teachers in those areas... [Helping
children and young people in
deprived areas] would be my
priority.”
Family as key site of solidarity
• Family a central, and in some cases the most important,
‘shock absorber’ for those affected by the recession
• Examples:
- ‘quick loans’ between family members
- extensive childcare by grandparents
- adult children moving back into parental homes
- parents financing setting up of home
- support and care-giving to elders
• People without a family network found imagining a positive
future for themselves more difficult
• But participants’ views were strongly patterned by social
class and income or wealth
 Intergenerational solidarity kept families in Ireland
afloat during economic recession
Class shaping intergenerational
relations across the life course
• Children in poor families
witness hardship and want
to help
• Young people of lower
socio-economic status often
closing down options, e.g.
education or travel, that are
taken for granted by their
better-off peers
• They expressed
commitment to ‘stay close
by’ to be a supportive
resource to their family
Stacey, Teenager, Low SES,
Unemployed
“I have come home nights and
listened to my mother crying over
money…I just see her struggling
so much like…I get paid [social
welfare] the Tuesday and she gets
paid on a Thursday, so if we are
going shopping and she runs low
or anything I just give her a few of
my bob and then she will give it
back to me on the Thursday. We
help each other out that way. But it’s
not actually [me giving], because
she is giving it back to me.”
Intergenerational relations at
community level
• Also shaped by gender
• Men tended to volunteer in
organisations involved in
‘giving’ in a public,
organised or
‘institutionalised’ way,
particularly sports clubs
• Women tended to have
been involved in care giving
within the extended family
or at community level, for
instance for neighbours or
through meals-on-wheels
Jimmy, 65-70, Middle SES,
Public Sector Worker
“There is nothing better than
bringing a lad in. He walks in
and he can hardly put one foot in
front of another and then you see
him twelve months later and he
can stand up [tall] …. a lot of
them will have self-esteem
problems. … I would give them
the benefit of my experience.
Not just as a [sports] coach and
all but as a person …”
Unfairness located elsewhere
Locus of perceived unfairness seen as lying
outside the intergenerational sphere.
Directed at two different groups:
1. Politicians and (highly paid) public sector
workers
2. Recipients of some welfare benefits
Conflict and perceived unfairness as
‘inter-sectoral’ and ‘inter-class’
NOT ‘inter-generational’
Powerbroker perspectives
Need for greater public
awareness of:
• Inter-generational solidarity
across the life course and
demographic ageing
• Individuals needing to plan
for their own future but also
recognition that the State
could do more
Head of Trade Union
“There is a distributional
settlement to be achieved
between people who are still
working and people who are
retired... There is a huge social
crisis about to unfold I would
say in relation to the pensions
system.”
Head of Multi-national
Corporation
“Private and public debt and that’s
different from the [1980s] because
it doesn’t just go away…I can’t
really think of another developed
country where that has been the
case ... That’s a really, really big
weight around our necks.”
• Intergenerational solidarity to
play a key role in shaping
Ireland’s future
• Decisions taken during the
crisis period to impact on
future generations
• However, no evidence of
conflict between generations
in interviews either with
‘powerbrokers’ or with
‘ordinary’ people living in
Ireland
• Cleavages residing in other
spheres, e.g. trust in
politicians
Director of NGO
“Whilst we think of trust in
interpersonal terms, in actual
fact in terms of a functioning
society, trust between
citizens and politicians,
between institutions and the
individuals those
institutions are supposed to
serve is what’s been most
undermined in recent
times.”
Powerbroker perspectives
Four key messages
Key Message 1
Little evidence in Ireland of
inter-generational conflict,
either within private or public
spheres (in 2011-2013)
Key Message 2
Considerable evidence that
inter-generational solidarity
within families helped people
in Ireland survive recession
Key Message 3
Socio-economic inequality, not
intergenerational difference, a
more significant cleavage
between groups in Ireland
Key Message 4
Commentators and policy
makers should think twice
before making case for actual
or impending conflict between
generations in Ireland
Further reading
Conlon, C. et al. (2015) ‘Emergent
reconstruction’ in grounded theory: learning
from team-based interview research,
Qualitative Research 15, 1: 39-56
Carney, G. et al. (2014) ‘Blessed are the
young, for they shall inherit the national debt’:
solidarity between generations in the Irish
crisis, Critical Social Policy 34, 3: 312-32
Scharf, T. et al. (2013) Changing Generations:
findings from new research on
intergenerational relations in Ireland, Galway:
ICSG and Dublin: SPARC
Conlon, C. et al. (2014) Women (re)negotiating
care across family generations, Gender &
Society 28, 5: 729-51
Timonen, V. et al. (2013) Family, state, class
and solidarity: re-conceptualising
intergenerational solidarity through the
grounded theory approach, European
Journal of Ageing 10, 3: 171-9
Dr. Suzanne Moffatt,
Dr Josephine Wildman,
Research Associate,
Institute of Health and Society Newcastle
University
‘Intergenerational relations in turbulent
times: narratives from Scotland and
North East England during austerity’
Intergenerational equity in austere times:
narratives from Tyneside and Edinburgh
Suzanne Moffatt, Josephine Wildman, Anna Goulding, Thomas Scharf
& Alison Stenning
International Longevity Centre - UK
Research to Policy Seminar, September 27,
2018
Study funded by Newcastle University Institute of Ageing
and Newcastle University Institute for Social Renewal
Intergenerational (un)fairness is…
“the great new frontier in economic and social policy making, in which age-
group cleavages are perceived as having new and perhaps primary
significance”
(Alexander Shaw, Foundation for European Progressive
Studies Report, 2018)
The intergenerational equity debate is a
conversation about, not with, people.
(Alexander Shaw, 2018)
Research aim
To explore intergenerational relations across the life course in Edinburgh
andTyneside in the ‘age of austerity’ and post-’Brexit’
Tyneside (N=24) Edinburgh (N=16)
Age range 19-81 23-85
Men 7 5
Women 17 11
Household income 11 6
Private renters 7 4
EU Referendum 21 (Remain) 0 (leave) 3
(other)
13 (remain) 3 (leave)
Scottish Independence
Referendum
Yes (leave) 10
No (remain) 6
Selected Participant characteristics
Themes
1. Fragile state of the intergenerational social contract
2. Political becoming personal within families
3. Assigning blame and seeking solutions
Themes
1. Fragile state of the intergenerational social contract
2. Political becoming personal within families
3. Assigning blame and seeking solutions
The state of the intergenerational social contract
• Widely-shared sense of a “scary” future
I’m 36.Why have I not got a private pension? That’s scary. But I am paying my
National Insurance Contributions. Come on government!That’s so naïve though,
isn’t it? That’s so naïve. It’s not going to be there. There’s going to be nothing.
(Isla, 36, Edinburgh)
Sites of vulnerability
I think that lack of support to probably the 16 to 35 age group is
gigantic – whether that’s in benefits, tax breaks, minimum wage,
access to further and higher education, access to decent paid,
secured jobs, housing, you name it. I think they are disproportionately
affected in the most negative way.
(Edith, 58, Edinburgh)
“…a prolonged adolescence”
That’s the age, there’s no way anymore that you’re supposed to be a child at all,
you’re supposed to be an adult in charge of your responsibilities and doing things.
Actually, in the type of society which we live in, that’s not really possible anymore. It
seems like there’s a whole load of expectations about what young people are or
should be or should be aiming towards and actually for the vast majority, [it] is not
attainable.”
(Alex, 23, Edinburgh)
Themes
1. Fragile state of the intergenerational social contract
2. Political becoming personal within families
3. Assigning blame and seeking solutions
Political becoming personal
… very well-padded as a generation … we are going to be far less
catered-for as an older generation than our parents have been …
And, yes, I’m a bit annoyed about it … Every time my parents
mention, “Oh, our pensions.Oh we don’t’ get much” I get a wee bit
annoyed because it’s like, well, we’re going to have even less.
(Isla, 36, Edinburgh)
[I feel] a bit angry in some ways, but only because I’ve seen my parents’
generation be able to do it … but it does get your goat a little bit … we
work as hard, we’re going to work longer and we’re not going to get as
much as the previous generation did and they didn’t do any more than
we have.
(Ben, 50,Tyne andWear)
Political becoming personal
… you resent it … there is a resentment there … you don’t count the
pennies when it’s your kids, but you always know that you’re
struggling
(Alice, 56,Tyne and Wear)
A ‘symbolic threat’ from the ‘Brexit generation’
… it's been a massive bone of contention with my parents because they voted
to leave and, yes, it's caused quite some ill feeling …
… I think my parents just thought, “Well we’ll have less foreign people in this
country if we vote out.” I think they’ve got quite some old-fashioned views on
that, whereas I quite like all the diversity …They’re not keen on foreign people
being in their country and I think that’s a real shame. We've had so many
arguments about it.
(Ingrid, 41,Tyne and Wear)
Themes
1. Fragile state of the intergenerational social contract
2. Political becoming personal within families
3. Assigning blame and seeking solutions
Who is to blame?
The “social ignorance” (Grace, 58,Tyne and Wear) of a remote state
…you can’t take all the population as one model, with the same money.Things
are not the same for each group.
(Callum, 76, Edinburgh)
… need to look at the real picture rather than just seeing that the older generation
are older, so they need this. Realising what zero-hour contracts and temporary
contracts and apprenticeship wages actually means in real-life terms …
(Colin, 26,Tyne and Wear)
What is the solution?
I would like Scotland to have independence … I would like all different
parts of the country to have their independence. I think there are too
many decisions made by London. I don’t think they realise how
difficult it is for some people, I really don’t. They’re not living the lives
that our people are living here and other parts of the country.
(Clare, 53, Edinburgh)
What is the solution?
• More social spending on all age groups
• Closer communities
… there was the whole thing of people being really cross that older people were
allowed to vote because they’re in the last bit of their life and leave us to pick up
the pieces, but I do think there’s an issue with ‘them and us’ as well.We’re all
people together and I think maybe if there was a little bit more mingling between
the generations, we’d just see each other as people … and maybe it would
actually help people to understand each other a bit better as well.
(Florence, 29,Tyne andWear)
‘Familial welfare state’ is not the
solution
… we’re basically working class, almost poverty-
like, people, my property is what’s going to save
me from the work house. My son’s not going to
have that. He’s not going to inherit, because I
have to live on it. But he can’t get on the
housing ladder … my heart breaks for him
because there’s no money in our family.
(Grace, 58,Tyne and Wear)
Norman Lamont, Daily Mail, 19 October 2017
Conclusions
• An awareness of the “alternative causal stories” beyond
intergenerational inequity (Alexander Shaw, 2018).
• Older generations not the focus of blame, rather blame was
attributed to ‘socially ignorant’ policy choices.
• Far from supporting the ‘rolling back’ of the state, participants
favoured collective mutually-beneficial solutions, particularly
through strengthened intergenerational communities.
• Risk of increasing inequalities thorough an over-reliance on the
‘familial welfare state’ for those whose families are unable or
unwilling to support them.
• Call for ‘New Generational
Contract’ (Resolution
Foundation, 2018) suggests the
plight of the young may be
becoming harder for policy
makers to ignore.
• The wide-spread perception of
young people in crisis (a
‘sacrificed generation’) might
indicate the arrival of a
transformative breaking point
point – the moment at which
which things are forced to
change (Alexander Shaw, 2018).
A ‘youth-quake’*?
Politicians are starting to realise that we are an untapped source of potential
votes … just the fact that we are quite loud, generally, as a generation. We are
protesting. We have got a massive online presence, which is definitely starting
to come to the forefront of politics. Since all of us are on social media, we are
signing online petitions and sharing them everywhere. That is what is really
starting to get people’s attention.
(Luke, 19, student,Tyne and Wear)
*youth-quake (noun): a significant cultural, political, or social change arising from the actions or influence of young people.
Fahmida Rahman
Researcher
The Resolution Foundation
‘Towards a new generational contract’
This event is kindly supported by funder
#tag
.
A new generational contract
.
Fahmida Rahman
27 September 2018
@fahmidarahman @resfoundation
47
Pay has fallen back, with millennials hit the hardest…
Median real weekly employee pay (CPIH-adjusted to 2017 prices), by age and cohort: UK, 1975-2017
Notes: See notes to Figure 2 in: L Gardiner & P Gregg, Study, Work, Progress, Repeat? How and why pay and progression outcomes have differed across cohorts,
Resolution Foundation, February 2017
Source: RF analysis of ONS, Labour Force Survey; ONS, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings; ONS, New Earnings Survey Panel Dataset
48
The structure of the labour market has changed…
Proportion of those in employment working part time, by age, sex and generation: UK, 1992-2017
Notes: Data are smoothed using a three-year rolling average over the age range.
Source: RF analysis of ONS, Labour Force Survey
49
…today’s young adults are bearing more risk than previous
generations…
Self-employment as a share of all employment, by age and educational attainment: UK
Notes: Data are smoothed using a three-year rolling average over the age range.
Source: RF analysis of ONS, Labour Force Survey
50
…and they are moving jobs less frequently, with implications for
their pay
Proportion voluntarily moving from one job to another each year, by age and generation: UK, 1992-2017
Notes: Data are smoothed using a three-year rolling average over the age range.
Source: RF analysis of ONS, Labour Force Survey
A £1 billion ‘Better
Jobs Deal’
A right to regular hours for those on zero-hours
contracts; minimum notice periods for shifts
£1.5 billion for
technical education
Making work more
secure
Avoiding lasting
damage from the crisis
Restarting skills
progress
Reducing jobs market risks and restarting progression
funded by
cancelling
1p of 2020
corporation
tax cut
52
Housing
53
There have been huge generational declines in home ownership…
Home ownership rates, by age and generation: UK: 1961-2017
Notes: See notes to Figure 3 in: A Corlett & L Judge, Home Affront: Housing across the generations, Resolution Foundation, September 2017
Source: RF analysis of ONS, Family Expenditure Survey; ONS, Labour Force Survey
54
…meaning more and more people are renting in the private
sector…
Rates of private renting, by age and generation: UK, 1961-2017
Notes: See notes to Figure 10 in: A Corlett & L Judge, Home Affront: Housing across the generations, Resolution Foundation, September 2017
Source: RF analysis of ONS, Family Expenditure Survey; ONS, Labour Force Survey
55
And they are paying more for the ‘privilege’…
Proportion of net income spent on housing costs, by generation: GB, 1961-2016
Note: This analysis refers to households, not families as in our analysis of tenure. See notes to Figure 20 in: A Corlett & L Judge, Home Affront: Housing across the
generations, Resolution Foundation, September 2017
Source: RF analysis of IFS, Households Below Average Income; DWP, Family Resources Survey
Replace council tax with a progressive property
tax with surcharges on second and empty
properties raising an additional £5 billion
Indeterminate tenancies; and limit rent increases
to inflation for three-year periods
Halve stamp duty at a cost of £2.7 billion set
against new property tax; and a time-limited
capital gains tax cut for sales to first-time buyers
Reducing insecurity
Rebalancing demand
Increasing supply
Providing immediate security while addressing our housing crisis
Community land auctions; and a £1.7 billion
building precept
57
Pensions
58
Average pensioner incomes are now higher than working-age
incomes…
Real household net annual income after housing costs (CPI-AHC-adjusted to 2017 prices), by life stage: UK
Notes: ‘p20’ refers to incomes at the 20th percentile within each age group; ‘p80’ refers to incomes at the 80th percentile within each age group. Dotted lines
show 2016-17 nowcast. Incomes are equivalised to account for differences in household size. See notes to Figure 1 in: As good as it gets? (Intergenerational
Commission report 12)
Source: RF analysis of DWP, Family Resources Survey; RF nowcast
59
But younger cohorts are likely to loose out from the new State
Pension reforms
Impact of the new State Pension reforms compared to the system they replaced across life in retirement, by
year of birth: UK, 2020-60
Source: RF analysis of DWP, Impact of new State Pension (nSP) on an individual’s pension entitlement – longer term effects of nSP, January 2016
60
The success of ‘auto-enrolment’ is cause for optimism…
Occupational pension scheme membership among male private sector employees, by age and cohort: GB,
1997-2016
Source: RF analysis of ONS, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings
61
… but in a DC world the saver bears all the risk
Longevity
Investment returns
two-in-five chance that two men
aged 65 today live to ages at least 10
years different to one another
A reduction in the RoR modelled on the
previous slide by 1ppt (from 3.6% to 2.6%)
causes annual pension income to fall by 8%
Flatten pensions tax reliefs
Auto-enrolment for low earners and
the self-employed
A legislative framework for new ‘collective
defined contribution’ pensions to better share risk
Increasing saving
Sharing risk
A default track to a guaranteed later life income
Reducing risks around younger generations’ pensions
63
The big picture
64
Generational income progress has stalled, and the young were hit
the hardest…
Median real household annual net income after housing costs (CPI-AHC-adjusted to 2017 prices), by
generation: GB, 1961-2016
Notes: Incomes are equivalised to account for differences in household size. See notes to Figure 2 in: A Corlett, As time goes by: Shifting incomes and inequality
between and within generations, Resolution Foundation, February 2017
Source: RF analysis of IFS, Households Below Average Income; DWP, Family Resources Survey
65
… and changes to the benefit system have added to problems
Mean change in annual net family income from tax and benefit policy changes implemented during the
current parliament, by age: 2022-23
Notes: Income is measured before housing costs, and expressed in cash terms. See notes to Figure 1 in: G Bangham, D Finch & T Phillips, A welfare generation:
Lifetime welfare transfers between generations, Resolution Foundation, February 2018
Source: RF analysis using the IPPR tax-benefit model
66
Wealth is increasingly held by older generations
Proportion of total household wealth and population by generation, 2014-16
Notes: Excludes physical wealth.
Source: RF analysis of ONS, Wealth and Assets Survey
67
…and wealth gaps within cohorts are rising
Percentiles of real family total net wealth per adult (CPIH-adjusted to 2017 prices), by cohort: GB, 2006-2016
Notes: Excludes physical wealth. ‘p25’ refers to incomes at the 25th percentile within each age group; ‘p50’ refers to incomes at the 50th percentile (the median)
within each age group; ‘p75’ refers to incomes at the 75th percentile within each age group.
Source: RF analysis of ONS, Wealth and Assets Survey
Lift the benefits freeze a year early, uprating
working-age benefits in line with inflation
in April 2019
A £10,000 ‘citizen’s inheritance’ to be spent on
housing, pensions, education & training or
entrepreneurship, set against lifetime receipts tax
A tax system fit for the
21st century
Restoring the idea of
asset accumulation
Boosting security today and preparing for tomorrow’s challenges
Rebalancing
the welfare state
Abolish inheritance tax and replacing it with a
lifetime receipts tax, raising an additional
£5 billion from wealth taxation
69
Not just about the young...
70
The transition of the large baby boomer generation into old age
is accelerating population ageing…
Ratio of non-workers to workers: UK, 1961-2066
Notes: Estimates do not take account of the impact of Brexit on employment levels or the population. Any large-scale impact on employment levels is likely to be
temporary and this analysis looks to highlight long-term trends.
Source: Resolution Foundation analysis using: Bank of England, Three centuries of macroeconomic data; ONS, 2014-based mid-year population estimates; ONS,
2014-based population projections; OBR, Economic and Fiscal Outlook, March 2016; OBR, Fiscal Sustainability Review, June 2015
71
…putting pressure on public spending
Historic and projected welfare spend as a proportion of GDP: UK
Notes: Data for years prior to 1966 are presented as five-year rolling averages. Total spend is based on the categories used in Hills (2004), so does not map
precisely to HM Treasury and Office for Budget Responsibility totals.
Source: RF analysis of OBR, Fiscal Sustainability Report – January 2017, January 2017; HMT, Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses; J Hills, Inequality and the State,
Oxford University Press, October 2004
72
Cutting welfare provision would represent a breach of the
generational contract – it’s a key worry in Britain…
• Cutting health and care provision would hit older
generations at a stage of life when it is difficult to
adapt
• Turning to the usual taxes on income and
consumption would bear down on millennials first
• Increasing debt would just pass the costs on to
younger generations and those not yet born
73
Instead, consider that wealth taxation has not kept up with the
growth and ‘ageing’ of Britain’s wealth
Aggregate wealth and wealth-related taxes as proportions of GDP: GB/UK
Notes: Total household net wealth covers Great Britain; tax and GDP data cover the UK. See notes to Figure 1 in: Home affairs (Intergenerational Commission
report 18)
Source: RF analysis of ONS, Wealth in Great Britain; ISER, British Household Panel Survey; ONS, UK National Accounts; D Blake & J Orszag, ‘Annual estimates of
personal wealth holdings in the United Kingdom since 1948’, Applied Financial Economics, 9, 1999; OECD.Stat
Increase public funding by 2.3 billion, raised
through reformed property taxation
A £2.3 billion ‘NHS levy’ via National Insurance
on the earnings of those above State Pension
age and limited National Insurance on
occupational pension income.
Sustaining the NHS
Breaking the deadlock
on social care
Funding health and care services in a generationally fair way
Increase property-based contributions towards
care costs, but with asset floors and cost caps so
that no more than a quarter of assets can be
depleted
.
A new generational contract
.
Fahmida Rahman
20 June 2018
@fahmidarahman @resfoundation
Panel Debate and Q&A
A Research to Policy Seminar:
Intergenerational Relations in
Challenging Times
Thursday 27th September 2018
This event is kindly supported by Newcastle University's Institute for Ageing
@NCLAgeing @ILCUK #intergenerationalrelations

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Research to Policy seminars - Intergenerational Relations in Challenging Times

  • 1. A Research to Policy Seminar: Intergenerational Relations in Challenging Times Thursday 27th September 2018 This event is kindly supported by Newcastle University's Institute for Ageing @NCLAgeing @ILCUK #intergenerationalrelations
  • 2. Welcome Clive Bolton ILC-UK Advisor This event is kindly supported by Newcastle University's Institute for Ageing @NCLAgeing @ILCUK #intergenerationalrelations
  • 3. Thomas Scharf FAcSS, Institute of Health & Society, and Newcastle University Institute for Ageing 'Intergenerational Solidarity under Threat? Perspectives from Ireland’ This event is kindly supported by Newcastle University's Institute for Ageing @NCLAgeing @ILCUK #intergenerationalrelations
  • 4. Outline • Contextualising debates on intergenerational relations - Public discourse - Research perspectives • Changing Generations project in Ireland (2011-2013) - Research questions - Methods • Selected findings from interviews with ‘ordinary’ citizens and with ‘powerbrokers’ • Four key messages for research and public policy
  • 6. Intergenerational relations: research perspectives Structural Associational Affectual Consensual Normative Functional Public Private Public Private Family-level Solidarities Public and Private Solidarities (Bengtson and Roberts, 1991)
  • 7. Changing Generations Broad aim: Through research, to inform citizens, policy makers and stakeholders and to facilitate dialogue in the interests of fostering intergenerational justice in Ireland Research questions: • How do people of different ages in Ireland think about and practice intergenerational solidarity? • How do people across and within generations help each other out in everyday life? • What is the inter-relationship between solidarity at family and societal levels? • Is age/generation a source of conflict in Irish society? • Do ‘ordinary’ people and ‘powerbrokers’ share similar views about intergenerational solidarity in Ireland?
  • 8. Research methods: Interviews 100 ‘ordinary’ people Tell me about the help and support, if any, you are receiving from [and giving to] other people now … in the past… in the future In what ways do you think that you are contributing to Irish society? What do you see yourself receiving from the State? Do you think the State has got the balance right in sharing resources across different generations? What could change? 20 ‘powerbrokers’ Key positions of influence Public, private and civil society sectors Regarding intergenerational solidarity, asked about their: o Agenda o Views o Role
  • 9. ‘Ordinary’ people sample SES Men (N = 46) Women (N = 54) Totals 18-25 years 26-50 years 51-74 years 75+ years 18-25 years 26-50 years 51-74 years 75+ years High 4 5 8 3 1 10 3 2 36 Middle 1 4 3 2 4 5 3 5 27 Low 6 4 5 1 6 6 4 5 37 Totals 11 13 16 6 11 21 10 12 100
  • 10. Civil Society Sector Private Sector Public Sector Head of trade union Head of business confederation Former university president President of Christian charity Head of multi-national corporation Former prison governor Religious leader Veteran entrepreneur Former Taoiseach President of students’ organisation Young entrepreneur Research professor President of youth movement Former editor of daily national newspaper Former head of national agency Director of theatre company Assistant Secretary General of government department Director of older people’s organisation Judge Head of older people’s NGO 8 5 7 ‘Powerbrokers’ sample
  • 11. Strong inter-generational solidarity • Deservingness of older people, arising from life- long contributions, featured prominently; but also additional justifications (lack of life chances in the past; expense of medical care) • The idea of taking from one generation in the interest of another barely featured (exception: the very well-off) • Pitting generations/age groups against each other in media, policy discussion or research poses choices that are not ‘real’ – but rather reflect crude and uninformed notions of solidarities/conflict
  • 12. Cross-generational solidarity Noelle, Teenager, Middle SES, Retail Worker “[Older people] get the pensions but they work[ed] for it, it is their money. ... They have worked all their lives. ... They should be able to sit back and have no financial worries. ... Anyone over seventy ... they deserve a medical card in case anything ever did go wrong. ... If they didn’t have that, all their money would go on treatment. I think everyone should be entitled to a medical card over seventy.” Tommy, 70+, Middle SES, Retired Public Sector Worker “It is an old cliché, but it will cost more at the end of day if [disadvantaged] kids are not looked after properly...inner city and rundown areas...need extra help. That is where the big effort should be to eradicate a lot of that old stuff and try to bring everyone up a bit...I think it is terrible to see that they were going to cut down on teachers in those areas... [Helping children and young people in deprived areas] would be my priority.”
  • 13. Family as key site of solidarity • Family a central, and in some cases the most important, ‘shock absorber’ for those affected by the recession • Examples: - ‘quick loans’ between family members - extensive childcare by grandparents - adult children moving back into parental homes - parents financing setting up of home - support and care-giving to elders • People without a family network found imagining a positive future for themselves more difficult • But participants’ views were strongly patterned by social class and income or wealth  Intergenerational solidarity kept families in Ireland afloat during economic recession
  • 14. Class shaping intergenerational relations across the life course • Children in poor families witness hardship and want to help • Young people of lower socio-economic status often closing down options, e.g. education or travel, that are taken for granted by their better-off peers • They expressed commitment to ‘stay close by’ to be a supportive resource to their family Stacey, Teenager, Low SES, Unemployed “I have come home nights and listened to my mother crying over money…I just see her struggling so much like…I get paid [social welfare] the Tuesday and she gets paid on a Thursday, so if we are going shopping and she runs low or anything I just give her a few of my bob and then she will give it back to me on the Thursday. We help each other out that way. But it’s not actually [me giving], because she is giving it back to me.”
  • 15. Intergenerational relations at community level • Also shaped by gender • Men tended to volunteer in organisations involved in ‘giving’ in a public, organised or ‘institutionalised’ way, particularly sports clubs • Women tended to have been involved in care giving within the extended family or at community level, for instance for neighbours or through meals-on-wheels Jimmy, 65-70, Middle SES, Public Sector Worker “There is nothing better than bringing a lad in. He walks in and he can hardly put one foot in front of another and then you see him twelve months later and he can stand up [tall] …. a lot of them will have self-esteem problems. … I would give them the benefit of my experience. Not just as a [sports] coach and all but as a person …”
  • 16. Unfairness located elsewhere Locus of perceived unfairness seen as lying outside the intergenerational sphere. Directed at two different groups: 1. Politicians and (highly paid) public sector workers 2. Recipients of some welfare benefits Conflict and perceived unfairness as ‘inter-sectoral’ and ‘inter-class’ NOT ‘inter-generational’
  • 17. Powerbroker perspectives Need for greater public awareness of: • Inter-generational solidarity across the life course and demographic ageing • Individuals needing to plan for their own future but also recognition that the State could do more Head of Trade Union “There is a distributional settlement to be achieved between people who are still working and people who are retired... There is a huge social crisis about to unfold I would say in relation to the pensions system.” Head of Multi-national Corporation “Private and public debt and that’s different from the [1980s] because it doesn’t just go away…I can’t really think of another developed country where that has been the case ... That’s a really, really big weight around our necks.”
  • 18. • Intergenerational solidarity to play a key role in shaping Ireland’s future • Decisions taken during the crisis period to impact on future generations • However, no evidence of conflict between generations in interviews either with ‘powerbrokers’ or with ‘ordinary’ people living in Ireland • Cleavages residing in other spheres, e.g. trust in politicians Director of NGO “Whilst we think of trust in interpersonal terms, in actual fact in terms of a functioning society, trust between citizens and politicians, between institutions and the individuals those institutions are supposed to serve is what’s been most undermined in recent times.” Powerbroker perspectives
  • 19. Four key messages Key Message 1 Little evidence in Ireland of inter-generational conflict, either within private or public spheres (in 2011-2013) Key Message 2 Considerable evidence that inter-generational solidarity within families helped people in Ireland survive recession Key Message 3 Socio-economic inequality, not intergenerational difference, a more significant cleavage between groups in Ireland Key Message 4 Commentators and policy makers should think twice before making case for actual or impending conflict between generations in Ireland
  • 20. Further reading Conlon, C. et al. (2015) ‘Emergent reconstruction’ in grounded theory: learning from team-based interview research, Qualitative Research 15, 1: 39-56 Carney, G. et al. (2014) ‘Blessed are the young, for they shall inherit the national debt’: solidarity between generations in the Irish crisis, Critical Social Policy 34, 3: 312-32 Scharf, T. et al. (2013) Changing Generations: findings from new research on intergenerational relations in Ireland, Galway: ICSG and Dublin: SPARC Conlon, C. et al. (2014) Women (re)negotiating care across family generations, Gender & Society 28, 5: 729-51 Timonen, V. et al. (2013) Family, state, class and solidarity: re-conceptualising intergenerational solidarity through the grounded theory approach, European Journal of Ageing 10, 3: 171-9
  • 21. Dr. Suzanne Moffatt, Dr Josephine Wildman, Research Associate, Institute of Health and Society Newcastle University ‘Intergenerational relations in turbulent times: narratives from Scotland and North East England during austerity’
  • 22. Intergenerational equity in austere times: narratives from Tyneside and Edinburgh Suzanne Moffatt, Josephine Wildman, Anna Goulding, Thomas Scharf & Alison Stenning International Longevity Centre - UK Research to Policy Seminar, September 27, 2018 Study funded by Newcastle University Institute of Ageing and Newcastle University Institute for Social Renewal
  • 23. Intergenerational (un)fairness is… “the great new frontier in economic and social policy making, in which age- group cleavages are perceived as having new and perhaps primary significance” (Alexander Shaw, Foundation for European Progressive Studies Report, 2018)
  • 24.
  • 25. The intergenerational equity debate is a conversation about, not with, people. (Alexander Shaw, 2018)
  • 26. Research aim To explore intergenerational relations across the life course in Edinburgh andTyneside in the ‘age of austerity’ and post-’Brexit’
  • 27. Tyneside (N=24) Edinburgh (N=16) Age range 19-81 23-85 Men 7 5 Women 17 11 Household income 11 6 Private renters 7 4 EU Referendum 21 (Remain) 0 (leave) 3 (other) 13 (remain) 3 (leave) Scottish Independence Referendum Yes (leave) 10 No (remain) 6 Selected Participant characteristics
  • 28. Themes 1. Fragile state of the intergenerational social contract 2. Political becoming personal within families 3. Assigning blame and seeking solutions
  • 29. Themes 1. Fragile state of the intergenerational social contract 2. Political becoming personal within families 3. Assigning blame and seeking solutions
  • 30. The state of the intergenerational social contract • Widely-shared sense of a “scary” future I’m 36.Why have I not got a private pension? That’s scary. But I am paying my National Insurance Contributions. Come on government!That’s so naïve though, isn’t it? That’s so naïve. It’s not going to be there. There’s going to be nothing. (Isla, 36, Edinburgh)
  • 31. Sites of vulnerability I think that lack of support to probably the 16 to 35 age group is gigantic – whether that’s in benefits, tax breaks, minimum wage, access to further and higher education, access to decent paid, secured jobs, housing, you name it. I think they are disproportionately affected in the most negative way. (Edith, 58, Edinburgh)
  • 32. “…a prolonged adolescence” That’s the age, there’s no way anymore that you’re supposed to be a child at all, you’re supposed to be an adult in charge of your responsibilities and doing things. Actually, in the type of society which we live in, that’s not really possible anymore. It seems like there’s a whole load of expectations about what young people are or should be or should be aiming towards and actually for the vast majority, [it] is not attainable.” (Alex, 23, Edinburgh)
  • 33. Themes 1. Fragile state of the intergenerational social contract 2. Political becoming personal within families 3. Assigning blame and seeking solutions
  • 34. Political becoming personal … very well-padded as a generation … we are going to be far less catered-for as an older generation than our parents have been … And, yes, I’m a bit annoyed about it … Every time my parents mention, “Oh, our pensions.Oh we don’t’ get much” I get a wee bit annoyed because it’s like, well, we’re going to have even less. (Isla, 36, Edinburgh) [I feel] a bit angry in some ways, but only because I’ve seen my parents’ generation be able to do it … but it does get your goat a little bit … we work as hard, we’re going to work longer and we’re not going to get as much as the previous generation did and they didn’t do any more than we have. (Ben, 50,Tyne andWear)
  • 35. Political becoming personal … you resent it … there is a resentment there … you don’t count the pennies when it’s your kids, but you always know that you’re struggling (Alice, 56,Tyne and Wear)
  • 36. A ‘symbolic threat’ from the ‘Brexit generation’ … it's been a massive bone of contention with my parents because they voted to leave and, yes, it's caused quite some ill feeling … … I think my parents just thought, “Well we’ll have less foreign people in this country if we vote out.” I think they’ve got quite some old-fashioned views on that, whereas I quite like all the diversity …They’re not keen on foreign people being in their country and I think that’s a real shame. We've had so many arguments about it. (Ingrid, 41,Tyne and Wear)
  • 37. Themes 1. Fragile state of the intergenerational social contract 2. Political becoming personal within families 3. Assigning blame and seeking solutions
  • 38. Who is to blame? The “social ignorance” (Grace, 58,Tyne and Wear) of a remote state …you can’t take all the population as one model, with the same money.Things are not the same for each group. (Callum, 76, Edinburgh) … need to look at the real picture rather than just seeing that the older generation are older, so they need this. Realising what zero-hour contracts and temporary contracts and apprenticeship wages actually means in real-life terms … (Colin, 26,Tyne and Wear)
  • 39. What is the solution? I would like Scotland to have independence … I would like all different parts of the country to have their independence. I think there are too many decisions made by London. I don’t think they realise how difficult it is for some people, I really don’t. They’re not living the lives that our people are living here and other parts of the country. (Clare, 53, Edinburgh)
  • 40. What is the solution? • More social spending on all age groups • Closer communities … there was the whole thing of people being really cross that older people were allowed to vote because they’re in the last bit of their life and leave us to pick up the pieces, but I do think there’s an issue with ‘them and us’ as well.We’re all people together and I think maybe if there was a little bit more mingling between the generations, we’d just see each other as people … and maybe it would actually help people to understand each other a bit better as well. (Florence, 29,Tyne andWear)
  • 41. ‘Familial welfare state’ is not the solution … we’re basically working class, almost poverty- like, people, my property is what’s going to save me from the work house. My son’s not going to have that. He’s not going to inherit, because I have to live on it. But he can’t get on the housing ladder … my heart breaks for him because there’s no money in our family. (Grace, 58,Tyne and Wear) Norman Lamont, Daily Mail, 19 October 2017
  • 42. Conclusions • An awareness of the “alternative causal stories” beyond intergenerational inequity (Alexander Shaw, 2018). • Older generations not the focus of blame, rather blame was attributed to ‘socially ignorant’ policy choices. • Far from supporting the ‘rolling back’ of the state, participants favoured collective mutually-beneficial solutions, particularly through strengthened intergenerational communities. • Risk of increasing inequalities thorough an over-reliance on the ‘familial welfare state’ for those whose families are unable or unwilling to support them.
  • 43. • Call for ‘New Generational Contract’ (Resolution Foundation, 2018) suggests the plight of the young may be becoming harder for policy makers to ignore. • The wide-spread perception of young people in crisis (a ‘sacrificed generation’) might indicate the arrival of a transformative breaking point point – the moment at which which things are forced to change (Alexander Shaw, 2018).
  • 44. A ‘youth-quake’*? Politicians are starting to realise that we are an untapped source of potential votes … just the fact that we are quite loud, generally, as a generation. We are protesting. We have got a massive online presence, which is definitely starting to come to the forefront of politics. Since all of us are on social media, we are signing online petitions and sharing them everywhere. That is what is really starting to get people’s attention. (Luke, 19, student,Tyne and Wear) *youth-quake (noun): a significant cultural, political, or social change arising from the actions or influence of young people.
  • 45. Fahmida Rahman Researcher The Resolution Foundation ‘Towards a new generational contract’ This event is kindly supported by funder #tag
  • 46. . A new generational contract . Fahmida Rahman 27 September 2018 @fahmidarahman @resfoundation
  • 47. 47 Pay has fallen back, with millennials hit the hardest… Median real weekly employee pay (CPIH-adjusted to 2017 prices), by age and cohort: UK, 1975-2017 Notes: See notes to Figure 2 in: L Gardiner & P Gregg, Study, Work, Progress, Repeat? How and why pay and progression outcomes have differed across cohorts, Resolution Foundation, February 2017 Source: RF analysis of ONS, Labour Force Survey; ONS, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings; ONS, New Earnings Survey Panel Dataset
  • 48. 48 The structure of the labour market has changed… Proportion of those in employment working part time, by age, sex and generation: UK, 1992-2017 Notes: Data are smoothed using a three-year rolling average over the age range. Source: RF analysis of ONS, Labour Force Survey
  • 49. 49 …today’s young adults are bearing more risk than previous generations… Self-employment as a share of all employment, by age and educational attainment: UK Notes: Data are smoothed using a three-year rolling average over the age range. Source: RF analysis of ONS, Labour Force Survey
  • 50. 50 …and they are moving jobs less frequently, with implications for their pay Proportion voluntarily moving from one job to another each year, by age and generation: UK, 1992-2017 Notes: Data are smoothed using a three-year rolling average over the age range. Source: RF analysis of ONS, Labour Force Survey
  • 51. A £1 billion ‘Better Jobs Deal’ A right to regular hours for those on zero-hours contracts; minimum notice periods for shifts £1.5 billion for technical education Making work more secure Avoiding lasting damage from the crisis Restarting skills progress Reducing jobs market risks and restarting progression funded by cancelling 1p of 2020 corporation tax cut
  • 53. 53 There have been huge generational declines in home ownership… Home ownership rates, by age and generation: UK: 1961-2017 Notes: See notes to Figure 3 in: A Corlett & L Judge, Home Affront: Housing across the generations, Resolution Foundation, September 2017 Source: RF analysis of ONS, Family Expenditure Survey; ONS, Labour Force Survey
  • 54. 54 …meaning more and more people are renting in the private sector… Rates of private renting, by age and generation: UK, 1961-2017 Notes: See notes to Figure 10 in: A Corlett & L Judge, Home Affront: Housing across the generations, Resolution Foundation, September 2017 Source: RF analysis of ONS, Family Expenditure Survey; ONS, Labour Force Survey
  • 55. 55 And they are paying more for the ‘privilege’… Proportion of net income spent on housing costs, by generation: GB, 1961-2016 Note: This analysis refers to households, not families as in our analysis of tenure. See notes to Figure 20 in: A Corlett & L Judge, Home Affront: Housing across the generations, Resolution Foundation, September 2017 Source: RF analysis of IFS, Households Below Average Income; DWP, Family Resources Survey
  • 56. Replace council tax with a progressive property tax with surcharges on second and empty properties raising an additional £5 billion Indeterminate tenancies; and limit rent increases to inflation for three-year periods Halve stamp duty at a cost of £2.7 billion set against new property tax; and a time-limited capital gains tax cut for sales to first-time buyers Reducing insecurity Rebalancing demand Increasing supply Providing immediate security while addressing our housing crisis Community land auctions; and a £1.7 billion building precept
  • 58. 58 Average pensioner incomes are now higher than working-age incomes… Real household net annual income after housing costs (CPI-AHC-adjusted to 2017 prices), by life stage: UK Notes: ‘p20’ refers to incomes at the 20th percentile within each age group; ‘p80’ refers to incomes at the 80th percentile within each age group. Dotted lines show 2016-17 nowcast. Incomes are equivalised to account for differences in household size. See notes to Figure 1 in: As good as it gets? (Intergenerational Commission report 12) Source: RF analysis of DWP, Family Resources Survey; RF nowcast
  • 59. 59 But younger cohorts are likely to loose out from the new State Pension reforms Impact of the new State Pension reforms compared to the system they replaced across life in retirement, by year of birth: UK, 2020-60 Source: RF analysis of DWP, Impact of new State Pension (nSP) on an individual’s pension entitlement – longer term effects of nSP, January 2016
  • 60. 60 The success of ‘auto-enrolment’ is cause for optimism… Occupational pension scheme membership among male private sector employees, by age and cohort: GB, 1997-2016 Source: RF analysis of ONS, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings
  • 61. 61 … but in a DC world the saver bears all the risk Longevity Investment returns two-in-five chance that two men aged 65 today live to ages at least 10 years different to one another A reduction in the RoR modelled on the previous slide by 1ppt (from 3.6% to 2.6%) causes annual pension income to fall by 8%
  • 62. Flatten pensions tax reliefs Auto-enrolment for low earners and the self-employed A legislative framework for new ‘collective defined contribution’ pensions to better share risk Increasing saving Sharing risk A default track to a guaranteed later life income Reducing risks around younger generations’ pensions
  • 64. 64 Generational income progress has stalled, and the young were hit the hardest… Median real household annual net income after housing costs (CPI-AHC-adjusted to 2017 prices), by generation: GB, 1961-2016 Notes: Incomes are equivalised to account for differences in household size. See notes to Figure 2 in: A Corlett, As time goes by: Shifting incomes and inequality between and within generations, Resolution Foundation, February 2017 Source: RF analysis of IFS, Households Below Average Income; DWP, Family Resources Survey
  • 65. 65 … and changes to the benefit system have added to problems Mean change in annual net family income from tax and benefit policy changes implemented during the current parliament, by age: 2022-23 Notes: Income is measured before housing costs, and expressed in cash terms. See notes to Figure 1 in: G Bangham, D Finch & T Phillips, A welfare generation: Lifetime welfare transfers between generations, Resolution Foundation, February 2018 Source: RF analysis using the IPPR tax-benefit model
  • 66. 66 Wealth is increasingly held by older generations Proportion of total household wealth and population by generation, 2014-16 Notes: Excludes physical wealth. Source: RF analysis of ONS, Wealth and Assets Survey
  • 67. 67 …and wealth gaps within cohorts are rising Percentiles of real family total net wealth per adult (CPIH-adjusted to 2017 prices), by cohort: GB, 2006-2016 Notes: Excludes physical wealth. ‘p25’ refers to incomes at the 25th percentile within each age group; ‘p50’ refers to incomes at the 50th percentile (the median) within each age group; ‘p75’ refers to incomes at the 75th percentile within each age group. Source: RF analysis of ONS, Wealth and Assets Survey
  • 68. Lift the benefits freeze a year early, uprating working-age benefits in line with inflation in April 2019 A £10,000 ‘citizen’s inheritance’ to be spent on housing, pensions, education & training or entrepreneurship, set against lifetime receipts tax A tax system fit for the 21st century Restoring the idea of asset accumulation Boosting security today and preparing for tomorrow’s challenges Rebalancing the welfare state Abolish inheritance tax and replacing it with a lifetime receipts tax, raising an additional £5 billion from wealth taxation
  • 69. 69 Not just about the young...
  • 70. 70 The transition of the large baby boomer generation into old age is accelerating population ageing… Ratio of non-workers to workers: UK, 1961-2066 Notes: Estimates do not take account of the impact of Brexit on employment levels or the population. Any large-scale impact on employment levels is likely to be temporary and this analysis looks to highlight long-term trends. Source: Resolution Foundation analysis using: Bank of England, Three centuries of macroeconomic data; ONS, 2014-based mid-year population estimates; ONS, 2014-based population projections; OBR, Economic and Fiscal Outlook, March 2016; OBR, Fiscal Sustainability Review, June 2015
  • 71. 71 …putting pressure on public spending Historic and projected welfare spend as a proportion of GDP: UK Notes: Data for years prior to 1966 are presented as five-year rolling averages. Total spend is based on the categories used in Hills (2004), so does not map precisely to HM Treasury and Office for Budget Responsibility totals. Source: RF analysis of OBR, Fiscal Sustainability Report – January 2017, January 2017; HMT, Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses; J Hills, Inequality and the State, Oxford University Press, October 2004
  • 72. 72 Cutting welfare provision would represent a breach of the generational contract – it’s a key worry in Britain… • Cutting health and care provision would hit older generations at a stage of life when it is difficult to adapt • Turning to the usual taxes on income and consumption would bear down on millennials first • Increasing debt would just pass the costs on to younger generations and those not yet born
  • 73. 73 Instead, consider that wealth taxation has not kept up with the growth and ‘ageing’ of Britain’s wealth Aggregate wealth and wealth-related taxes as proportions of GDP: GB/UK Notes: Total household net wealth covers Great Britain; tax and GDP data cover the UK. See notes to Figure 1 in: Home affairs (Intergenerational Commission report 18) Source: RF analysis of ONS, Wealth in Great Britain; ISER, British Household Panel Survey; ONS, UK National Accounts; D Blake & J Orszag, ‘Annual estimates of personal wealth holdings in the United Kingdom since 1948’, Applied Financial Economics, 9, 1999; OECD.Stat
  • 74. Increase public funding by 2.3 billion, raised through reformed property taxation A £2.3 billion ‘NHS levy’ via National Insurance on the earnings of those above State Pension age and limited National Insurance on occupational pension income. Sustaining the NHS Breaking the deadlock on social care Funding health and care services in a generationally fair way Increase property-based contributions towards care costs, but with asset floors and cost caps so that no more than a quarter of assets can be depleted
  • 75. . A new generational contract . Fahmida Rahman 20 June 2018 @fahmidarahman @resfoundation
  • 77. A Research to Policy Seminar: Intergenerational Relations in Challenging Times Thursday 27th September 2018 This event is kindly supported by Newcastle University's Institute for Ageing @NCLAgeing @ILCUK #intergenerationalrelations

Editor's Notes

  1. Acknowledge funders: NUIA and NISR Recently completed – in the process of writing-up results for journal submission – also submitted evidence to Lord’s Select Committee on Intergen Fairness and Provision
  2. Everyone here will be keenly aware of the intensity of debate around intergenerational fairness Replacing social class as the new site of struggle
  3. Media is full of talk of blame and conflict – look at the language Cuttings from across the political spectrum
  4. Thus far the debate is taking place in the realm of think-tanks, the media and government. Surprisingly little academic work done in the UK – especially in light of economic climate. Much of what has been done is quantitative – certainly parameterises the problem but tells us little about what ‘ordinary’ people think – does intergenerational fairness resonate?
  5. Previous research largely finds no evidence of intergenerational conflict. However: Conducted prior to prolonged austerity and, crucially, ‘Brexit’ Different policy contexts brought about by devolution
  6. Participants came from across the adult age spectrum More women than men Sample was diverse - included people from low – high income backgrounds, all social classes, and included unemployed people and full time carers Household income, ranged from low, including households reliant on state benefits to above £55K Where we really struggled was to recruit people who voted to leave the EU, especially in Tyneside. Slightly more of those recruited in Edinburgh had voted to leave the UK in the Scottish referendum
  7. Three themes that emerged from data analysis form the basis of my presentation State of intergenerational social contract – characterised by lack of faith in concepts such as equity and reciprocity Discourse of intergenerational injustice AT SOCIETAL LEVEL ALSO WITHIN FAMILIES – NOT FOUND IN PREVIOUS RESEARCH Where participants felt the blame lay and what the solutions were. Quotes from participants will be used to illustrate the themes
  8. Similar to the Resolution Foundation Report, pessimism dominates Social contract that underpins the welfare state depends on a sense of reciprocity – pay in now and get back later – this was absent – summed up by quote from Isla
  9. Wide range of areas in which young people were identified as struggling – similar to those identified by the Resolution Foundation Report Edith listed the challenges facing younger people – these were widely identified in our study
  10. One of the most striking effects of the challenges faced by young people came in the form of what a young woman described as a ‘prolonged adolescence’ This was Alex’s response to being asked to describe his stage of life This was underpinned by the welfare state that was felt to be delaying independence through age-based criteria for welfare benefits and the differential minimum wage
  11. Previous research has found that family kinship bonds largely ameliorate any sense of intergenerational unfairness THIS IS NOT WHAT WE FOUND – frustration at broken social contract was being to an extent mirrored within families Participants discussing their parents Look at the language: it’s not a social norm to resent parents – especially when they’re supportive Ben (wanted to retire early due to ill-health) contrasted his own father’s early retirement with his own need to work until 66
  12. Effect felt not just among the youngest Effect of adult kids delaying third age
  13. This research is POST-BREXIT Symbolic threat is posed by conflict between world views Younger generation = socially liberal/Older generation socially conservative Brexit vote characterised as a schism between older and younger – As was the last General Election Impact was widely agreed – by all ages – to fall on the young Restrained anger had become actual conflict within some families
  14. Although keenly felt, the sense of intergenerational injustice was not translating into a desire to punish ‘Socially-ignorant’ government failure to understand the impact of policies on people’s lives At the other end of the age spectrum, Callum highlighted differences in assets among older people
  15. One solution was increased devolution of decision-making Devolved administration in Scotland seen as closer to its citizens, more responsive to their needs and more socially just than the Westminster Government.
  16. More grass-roots community More intergenerational interaction
  17. More reliance on the familial welfare state NOT the solution Identified as merely entrenching disadvantage The short-comings of relying on inherited wealth to solve intergenerational inequalities is starkly highlighted by this quote from Grace who was going to sell her home to fund her retirement.
  18. Although evidence of resentment
  19. People are starting to come up with ideas
  20. Are we reaching a ‘transformative breaking point’? Luke shared the optimism that things might be about to getting better Youth-quake OED’s word of the year
  21. Prior to the post-crisis pay squeeze, all generations alive today - other than the millennials - had experienced large gains when compared to their predecessors. In early 2018, average real pay was still £15 a week below pre-crisis levels – 10 years after the crisis. Pay is projected to take nearly two decades to return to its pre-recession peak.
  22. Increases concentrated among men - partly a rebalancing of gender roles but this is far from the full story – reflected in peoples attitudes – 17 per cent of 16-34 yo in part-time world would like a full-time role
  23. The proportion of degree-holding older workers who were self-employed has fallen since 2001-03. But the proportion of younger non-degree holders working in this way increased sharply. Younger non-degree holders are more likely to be in low-skilled and insecure self-employment - in contrast to those seeking to work more flexibly or boost earnings e.g. older workers on the run-in to retirement. Part of a trend towards ‘atypical’ forms of working which transfer risk from the employer onto the worker - as a result of weakened employment rights and reduced certainty of income relative to traditional full-time employees with permanent contracts ZHC & agency work also most concentrated among young people – although overall they are a minority of the workforce
  24. Millennials are so far 20-25 per cent less likely to move jobs voluntarily than members of generation X at the same age Partly due to crisis – but also likely to be in response to the additional labour market risk that they shoulder Implications for pay progress - in 2016 the typical pay rise for someone who remained in their job was just 1.7 per cent, whereas job changers received a typical pay rise of 7.8 per cent. Also moving from region to region for jobs less – this offers an even bigger potential pay increase But looking up – as worst effects of crisis worn off younger millennials moving more and slight uptick in j2j moves for older millennials
  25. Boost employment security via the right to a regular contract for those doing regular hours on a zero-hours contract; extended statutory rights for the self-employed; and minimum notice periods for shifts. Introduce a £1 billion ‘Better Jobs Deal’ that offers practical support and funding for younger workers most affected by the financial crisis to take up opportunities to move jobs or train to progress; and £1.5 billion to tackle persistent under-funding of technical education routes. Both should be funded by cancelling 1p of the forthcoming corporation tax cut. funded by cancelling 1p of 2020 corporation tax cut
  26. Millennials are half as likely to own a home at the age of 30 as baby boomers were. This is largely due to increased barriers to entry caused by higher house prices, low earnings growth and tighter credit availability post-crisis. In the 1980s it would have taken a typical household in their late-20s around three years to save for an average-sized deposit - it would now take 19 years.
  27. Coupled with huge declines in the availability of social housing, this means that more and more people are renting in the private sector where security is a major issue– with millennials hit the hardest (again) Millennials are four times more likely to be renting privately than Baby boomers were
  28. Housing costs have been taking up a growing share of incomes for each generation throughout the 20th century. Millennials are spending an average of almost a quarter of their incomes on housing – with many spending much more The pre-war silent generation spent on average 8 per cent at a similar age.
  29. Make indeterminate tenancies the sole form of private rental contract, with light-touch rent stabilisation limiting rent increases to inflation for three-year periods and disputes settled by a new housing tribunal.# Replace council tax with a progressive property tax with surcharges on second and empty properties; halve stamp duty rates to encourage moving; and offer a time-limited capital gains tax cut to incentivise owners of additional properties to sell to first-time buyers. Pilot community land auctions so local authorities can bring more land forward for house building, underpinned by stronger compulsory purchase powers; and introduce a £1.7 billion building precept allowing local authorities to raise funds for house building in their area.
  30. Start with the positives. Pensioner poverty has decreased by a third this century The average pensioner now earns more than average working-age person after housing costs These gains have been made at the top and bottom of the distribution But retirement living standards were second top worry of British public Concern over whether this will be replicated for later generations is very valid - younger cohorts are earning less and accumulating less wealth
  31. single-tier ‘new State Pension’, significantly increases the basic level of entitlements (relative to earnings) to close to the high watermark of the late 1970s This is an improvement for lifelong low earners in the first cohorts retiring under the scheme and the self-employed, but brings an end to a system of earnings-related State Pension top-ups that benefitted higher earners. ‘Protected payments’ those earnings-related accruals have been protected for those currently retiring, taking their overall State Pension entitlement above the ‘new State Pension’ level in many cases. This protection (and associated spending) will gradually phase out as future cohorts move into retirement having spent less of their working lives under the old system. Because that spending will not be reallocated elsewhere in the pensioner benefit system, this approach is more generous to retirees in the coming years than to younger generations
  32. a surge in membership of DC schemes means that overall pension coverage at age 35 has increased above preceding cohorts among the oldest male millennials Cohort-on-cohort improvements for women have been even more rapid – They were historically less likely to be in DB schemes outside of the public sector and are most likely to be newly saving via auto-enrolment This has offset declines in DB membership outside the private sector
  33. Issue of risk again! Individuals carry greater levels of risk under DC provision Also risk of longer retirement period or greater periods in ill health will be borne by the individual
  34. Require firms contracting for self-employed labour to make pension contributions; lower the earnings threshold above which employees get auto-enrolled; and provide greater incentives to save among low- and middle-earners by averaging the rate of pensions tax relief and exempting employee pension contributions from National Insurance. Develop a legislative framework for ‘collective defined contribution’ pensions that better share investment risk; and reforming pension freedoms to include the default option of a guaranteed income product purchased at the age of 80.
  35. Benefit reductions concentrated among working age people
  36. Abolish inheritance tax and replacing it with a lifetime receipts tax that is levied on recipients with fewer exemptions, a lower tax-free allowance and lower tax rates; with the extra revenues supporting a £10,000 ‘citizen’s inheritance’ – a restricted-use asset endowment to all young adults to support skills, entrepreneurship, housing and pension saving. The abolition of the cash freeze on most working-age benefits in April next year would mean that they rise by a projected 2.4 per cent. Figure 11.6 shows that more than half the benefits would flow to millennials, who will be aged 21-40 in 2020. And the measure is strongly progressive within the millennial generation, boosting incomes by around 1 per cent on average for the poorest fifth.
  37. There is widespread concern that this is the kind of outcome we are heading towards: when adults are asked to list the three topics that are the most worrying for the country, healthcare comes out top While it is mentioned in 42 per cent of responses in Britain, it features in just 24 per cent of responses – and is only the fifth most pressing issue – when measured internationally
  38. Increase public funding for social care by more than £2 billion from reformed taxation of property. There should also be an increase in property-based contributions towards care costs, but these charges should be limited by a strict asset floor and cost cap so that no-one pays more than a quarter of their wealth for their own care. Introduce a £2.3 billion ‘NHS levy’ via National Insurance on the earnings of those above State Pension age and limited National Insurance on occupational pension income.