An overview of some of the key trends currently affecting the UK economy, exploring where these might go in future. It is from a NCVO Third Sector Foresight seminar.
The document discusses why monetary policy has become less effective at stimulating growth and inflation. A decade of unprecedented monetary easing by central banks has led to disappointing economic outcomes, with unsatisfactory growth, excess capacity, and below-target inflation. Several factors have weakened the transmission of monetary policy, including less responsive consumption and investment to low interest rates, rising asset prices mainly benefiting wealthy groups less likely to spend, and unchanging inflation expectations. Further, when all major central banks ease simultaneously, none benefits from a weaker currency. Policy errors have also damaged central bank credibility over time. The balance has tipped toward monetary policy impotency, as obstacles now outweigh the potency of central bank tools.
This document discusses the outlook for the US stock market and economy. It argues that the US is in the early stages of an economic recovery and secular bull market for stocks. As evidence, it notes that small cap stocks have significantly outperformed large caps recently due to stronger earnings, which is typically a leading indicator of continued economic growth. The document urges investors to focus on long-term economic fundamentals rather than short-term noise when investing.
The document discusses the current state of the US consumer market, noting it can be characterized as a "Tale of Two Cities" with high and low income earners facing different conditions. While low income consumers face headwinds like high costs of living, student debt, and unemployment, high income earners benefit from tailwinds such as rising home and investment portfolio values. Although high income consumers are a small percentage, they contribute disproportionately to consumer spending. As long as high income consumer confidence remains strong, overall consumer spending and GDP growth should remain positive, supporting a bullish outlook on equities.
The document provides an economic outlook report for September 2010 by Mike Lathigee, Chairman and CEO of Alliance Investment Solutions. The summary is:
1) The economy is experiencing extreme uncertainty and it is difficult to determine if it is improving or declining. Cash flow from conservative, low-risk investments is the focus.
2) Real estate appreciation is not expected in the near future. Cash flow from real estate is recommended over appreciation-based investments.
3) The stock market uncertainty is due to mixed economic indicators like high unemployment and weak corporate earnings. Government bonds have increased in demand despite low returns.
4) Emerging markets are seeing strong growth while most developed economies are growing slower than the US
The document discusses how growing acceptance of aggressive fiscal policy could support gold prices over the long term. It notes that government deficits have increased substantially during the pandemic, distributing funds more widely than in previous crises. This may boost inflation and set a precedent for larger responses that increase debt. While rising bond yields recently pressured gold, real yields remain low and inflation expectations are up, suggesting the Fed may act to curb rates, supporting gold. The document analyzes factors that could cause rates and gold prices to rise or fall in the near term.
The document discusses why monetary policy has become less effective at stimulating growth and inflation. A decade of unprecedented monetary easing by central banks has led to disappointing economic outcomes, with unsatisfactory growth, excess capacity, and below-target inflation. Several factors have weakened the transmission of monetary policy, including less responsive consumption and investment to low interest rates, rising asset prices mainly benefiting wealthy groups less likely to spend, and unchanging inflation expectations. Further, when all major central banks ease simultaneously, none benefits from a weaker currency. Policy errors have also damaged central bank credibility over time. The balance has tipped toward monetary policy impotency, as obstacles now outweigh the potency of central bank tools.
This document discusses the outlook for the US stock market and economy. It argues that the US is in the early stages of an economic recovery and secular bull market for stocks. As evidence, it notes that small cap stocks have significantly outperformed large caps recently due to stronger earnings, which is typically a leading indicator of continued economic growth. The document urges investors to focus on long-term economic fundamentals rather than short-term noise when investing.
The document discusses the current state of the US consumer market, noting it can be characterized as a "Tale of Two Cities" with high and low income earners facing different conditions. While low income consumers face headwinds like high costs of living, student debt, and unemployment, high income earners benefit from tailwinds such as rising home and investment portfolio values. Although high income consumers are a small percentage, they contribute disproportionately to consumer spending. As long as high income consumer confidence remains strong, overall consumer spending and GDP growth should remain positive, supporting a bullish outlook on equities.
The document provides an economic outlook report for September 2010 by Mike Lathigee, Chairman and CEO of Alliance Investment Solutions. The summary is:
1) The economy is experiencing extreme uncertainty and it is difficult to determine if it is improving or declining. Cash flow from conservative, low-risk investments is the focus.
2) Real estate appreciation is not expected in the near future. Cash flow from real estate is recommended over appreciation-based investments.
3) The stock market uncertainty is due to mixed economic indicators like high unemployment and weak corporate earnings. Government bonds have increased in demand despite low returns.
4) Emerging markets are seeing strong growth while most developed economies are growing slower than the US
The document discusses how growing acceptance of aggressive fiscal policy could support gold prices over the long term. It notes that government deficits have increased substantially during the pandemic, distributing funds more widely than in previous crises. This may boost inflation and set a precedent for larger responses that increase debt. While rising bond yields recently pressured gold, real yields remain low and inflation expectations are up, suggesting the Fed may act to curb rates, supporting gold. The document analyzes factors that could cause rates and gold prices to rise or fall in the near term.
This document summarizes the current market environment of historically low interest rates driving high dividend payouts by companies that are likely unsustainable. Specifically, it notes that (1) interest rates being near historic lows have forced investors to seek yield elsewhere, (2) dividend-paying stocks now look very expensive based on metrics like price-to-earnings ratios, and (3) current levels of corporate payouts through dividends and stock buybacks exceeding earnings are unlikely to continue amid late-stage economic cycles with limited earnings growth.
A review of Q4 2015 corporate earnings reveals a significant slowdown in revenue and earnings growth. While these developments have been affected by the sharp decline in commodity prices,they may reveal early signs of recessionary conditions.
The document discusses contrarian investing and provides examples from history. It notes that investors often make the mistake of piling into popular trades, as seen during the tech bubble, while fortunes have been made by remaining calm during crises. Contrarian investing involves taking positions that are opposite the prevailing sentiment. The document examines the tech bubble crash as an example of when contrarian positions were successful. It also identifies some potential contrarian opportunities today in international stocks and high-yielding securities due to possible overvaluations.
Monthly Market Perspective - June 2016David Berger
The drivers of short-term market moves can be vastly different from those which underpin the cycles of longer-term market direction. This month we examine a variety of these factors.
The document discusses risks facing gold prices in the coming weeks from inflationary pressures and expectations of higher US Treasury yields. It notes that while markets have been volatile, economic data shows inflationary pressures remain from supply chain issues pushing up costs. Commodity producers also remain cautious on expanding supply. This could keep inflation elevated even as the Fed tapers stimulus. Gold is facing downside risks from both potential higher short-term rates and higher expected long-term yields. Near-term, $1,770 provides minor support for gold prices but further declines are possible if economic data surprises to the upside.
Markets Corrects Amidst Economic Uncertainty Aug 5 2011ll19046
The document summarizes a market correction that occurred in early August 2011 due to fears about the global economy and Europe's debt crisis. Investors grew nervous and stock markets declined, erasing year-to-date gains. While economic data didn't indicate an imminent double dip recession, macro concerns were overriding market fundamentals in the short term. The author recommends keeping a long term perspective, as volatility creates opportunities and market fundamentals will ultimately prevail.
2014.11.28 - NAEC Group Meeting_Adrian Blundell-WignallOECD_NAEC
The document discusses several issues related to finance and the economy. It notes that financial deregulation and innovation led to the 2008 liquidity crisis due to complex derivatives and relationships between counterparties. Since then, derivatives have shifted from banks to shadow banks. There has also been an emerging market bubble in corporate credit as investors seek yield. The document raises concerns about liquidity risks if interest rates rise or demand slows, given the shift away from banks as liquidity providers. It argues that new approaches are needed to encourage long-term, sustainable investment by non-banks.
Following an impressive bounce back from February lows, the durability of the current bull market remains suspect. The benefits of the recent rally appear limited to the large cap, defensive sectors of the market. In prior market cycles, this has portended that the latter stages of a bull market are fast approaching and as such, caution is warranted.
This document summarizes a market perspective report from July 2016. It discusses how central banks have driven interest rates to record lows and even negative levels in some countries in an attempt to stimulate economic growth. However, global GDP growth remains sluggish despite enormous monetary stimulus efforts. As a result, government debt levels have increased substantially. The long-term implications of prolonged low and negative interest rates on economies and financial markets remains uncertain.
- The stock market has risen 17% year-to-date but may be overextended in the short-term given lackluster business fundamentals and economic growth.
- After a potential short-term pullback, stocks could see 20-30% upside over the next year, supported by low interest rates and high liquidity.
- However, the author cautions that weak revenue growth, upcoming fiscal tightening, and downward revisions to earnings estimates could trigger a market correction from current levels.
1) Investment refers to spending by firms on capital goods like equipment and buildings to produce more goods in the future. It made up 17% of UK GDP in 2018.
2) Determinants of investment include interest rates, business confidence, availability of finance, profitability, productivity of capital, government policies, and economic growth prospects.
3) When economic growth is positive, firms are more willing to invest as they expect future demand to rise, following the accelerator effect where increased output requires more capital.
Five Misconceptions That Don't Make For Good Investment DecisionsEdward Hugh
This document discusses five common misconceptions about investment decisions and macroeconomic policies:
1. Printing money does not always lead to inflation, as demonstrated by Japan's experience with deflation despite monetary expansion. Other factors like demographics can impact inflation.
2. Money printing through quantitative easing may not be able to stop deflation in Europe due to structural issues like population aging reducing demand.
3. Devaluing currency does not guarantee getting out of economic trouble, as Japan struggled to control the yen's value for years despite intervention.
4. The euro is a political project, so its challenges may require political not just technical solutions. Money printing alone can't address issues like demographic changes.
This document discusses the impact of loose global monetary policy on economic growth and equity markets since the 2008 financial crisis. Central banks around the world expanded their balance sheets significantly through measures like quantitative easing to stimulate their economies. This monetary expansion appears highly correlated with rising asset prices and market performance. However, as interest rates are expected to rise, the effects of tightening monetary policy on market volatility and asset price appreciation require careful portfolio positioning.
The global economic crisis has had unprecedented and wide-ranging effects. While governments have tried stimulus measures, rising debt and uncertainty continue to hamper recovery efforts. One potential solution is for governments to print money and allocate it to reduce various stakeholder debt levels, up to 25% of the existing money supply, provided inflation and exchange rates can be managed. This approach would require international coordination and testing in the most affected country first before broader implementation. It could help make economic systems viable again by improving liquidity and removing gloom while maintaining functional financial systems.
This document introduces the concept of theme-based investing and provides an example theme of growing prosperity in emerging markets. It explains how certain themes like increasing consumer demand can drive investment opportunities across many industries from basic materials to healthcare. The document also discusses how East End Wealth Management approaches theme-based investing by focusing on macro trends rather than individual companies and maintaining a globally diverse portfolio. It provides examples of other themes the firm may consider and how contradictory themes require careful analysis of their interacting effects.
The document discusses potential inflation scenarios and their implications for gold prices. It analyzes the likelihood of hyperinflation, deflation, stagflation, and a return to previous low inflation levels. The author argues that stagflation, with high inflation and slowing GDP growth, poses the greatest risk and would be most positive for gold. While the Fed expects current high inflation to be temporary, money supply and debt increases make low pre-pandemic inflation unlikely. Slowing growth projections for 2022 could produce the stagflation scenario gold performs well in.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for December. This month we examine the impacts of the rapidly changing low interest rate environment.
The document summarizes a presentation given by the Financial Management Association of New Hampshire on safeguarding cash and investments during turbulent economic times. The presentation addressed the current financial crisis, economic outlook, condition of the financial industry, cash management options, and investment policy guidelines. Panelists discussed issues like capital adequacy, the future of securitization and universal banking, and strategies for preserving capital while generating yield.
This document provides an overview of the current volatile market environment and outlines 10 rules of thumb for navigating periods of increased volatility. It discusses recent declines in major indexes and rise in market volatility. While the authors' base case sees continued slow economic and earnings growth, they note several signs of uncertainty globally. The 10 rules of thumb focus on identifying companies with organic growth opportunities, flexible finances, strong cash flow, and earnings quality to invest successfully through the market cycle.
This document summarizes the current market environment of historically low interest rates driving high dividend payouts by companies that are likely unsustainable. Specifically, it notes that (1) interest rates being near historic lows have forced investors to seek yield elsewhere, (2) dividend-paying stocks now look very expensive based on metrics like price-to-earnings ratios, and (3) current levels of corporate payouts through dividends and stock buybacks exceeding earnings are unlikely to continue amid late-stage economic cycles with limited earnings growth.
A review of Q4 2015 corporate earnings reveals a significant slowdown in revenue and earnings growth. While these developments have been affected by the sharp decline in commodity prices,they may reveal early signs of recessionary conditions.
The document discusses contrarian investing and provides examples from history. It notes that investors often make the mistake of piling into popular trades, as seen during the tech bubble, while fortunes have been made by remaining calm during crises. Contrarian investing involves taking positions that are opposite the prevailing sentiment. The document examines the tech bubble crash as an example of when contrarian positions were successful. It also identifies some potential contrarian opportunities today in international stocks and high-yielding securities due to possible overvaluations.
Monthly Market Perspective - June 2016David Berger
The drivers of short-term market moves can be vastly different from those which underpin the cycles of longer-term market direction. This month we examine a variety of these factors.
The document discusses risks facing gold prices in the coming weeks from inflationary pressures and expectations of higher US Treasury yields. It notes that while markets have been volatile, economic data shows inflationary pressures remain from supply chain issues pushing up costs. Commodity producers also remain cautious on expanding supply. This could keep inflation elevated even as the Fed tapers stimulus. Gold is facing downside risks from both potential higher short-term rates and higher expected long-term yields. Near-term, $1,770 provides minor support for gold prices but further declines are possible if economic data surprises to the upside.
Markets Corrects Amidst Economic Uncertainty Aug 5 2011ll19046
The document summarizes a market correction that occurred in early August 2011 due to fears about the global economy and Europe's debt crisis. Investors grew nervous and stock markets declined, erasing year-to-date gains. While economic data didn't indicate an imminent double dip recession, macro concerns were overriding market fundamentals in the short term. The author recommends keeping a long term perspective, as volatility creates opportunities and market fundamentals will ultimately prevail.
2014.11.28 - NAEC Group Meeting_Adrian Blundell-WignallOECD_NAEC
The document discusses several issues related to finance and the economy. It notes that financial deregulation and innovation led to the 2008 liquidity crisis due to complex derivatives and relationships between counterparties. Since then, derivatives have shifted from banks to shadow banks. There has also been an emerging market bubble in corporate credit as investors seek yield. The document raises concerns about liquidity risks if interest rates rise or demand slows, given the shift away from banks as liquidity providers. It argues that new approaches are needed to encourage long-term, sustainable investment by non-banks.
Following an impressive bounce back from February lows, the durability of the current bull market remains suspect. The benefits of the recent rally appear limited to the large cap, defensive sectors of the market. In prior market cycles, this has portended that the latter stages of a bull market are fast approaching and as such, caution is warranted.
This document summarizes a market perspective report from July 2016. It discusses how central banks have driven interest rates to record lows and even negative levels in some countries in an attempt to stimulate economic growth. However, global GDP growth remains sluggish despite enormous monetary stimulus efforts. As a result, government debt levels have increased substantially. The long-term implications of prolonged low and negative interest rates on economies and financial markets remains uncertain.
- The stock market has risen 17% year-to-date but may be overextended in the short-term given lackluster business fundamentals and economic growth.
- After a potential short-term pullback, stocks could see 20-30% upside over the next year, supported by low interest rates and high liquidity.
- However, the author cautions that weak revenue growth, upcoming fiscal tightening, and downward revisions to earnings estimates could trigger a market correction from current levels.
1) Investment refers to spending by firms on capital goods like equipment and buildings to produce more goods in the future. It made up 17% of UK GDP in 2018.
2) Determinants of investment include interest rates, business confidence, availability of finance, profitability, productivity of capital, government policies, and economic growth prospects.
3) When economic growth is positive, firms are more willing to invest as they expect future demand to rise, following the accelerator effect where increased output requires more capital.
Five Misconceptions That Don't Make For Good Investment DecisionsEdward Hugh
This document discusses five common misconceptions about investment decisions and macroeconomic policies:
1. Printing money does not always lead to inflation, as demonstrated by Japan's experience with deflation despite monetary expansion. Other factors like demographics can impact inflation.
2. Money printing through quantitative easing may not be able to stop deflation in Europe due to structural issues like population aging reducing demand.
3. Devaluing currency does not guarantee getting out of economic trouble, as Japan struggled to control the yen's value for years despite intervention.
4. The euro is a political project, so its challenges may require political not just technical solutions. Money printing alone can't address issues like demographic changes.
This document discusses the impact of loose global monetary policy on economic growth and equity markets since the 2008 financial crisis. Central banks around the world expanded their balance sheets significantly through measures like quantitative easing to stimulate their economies. This monetary expansion appears highly correlated with rising asset prices and market performance. However, as interest rates are expected to rise, the effects of tightening monetary policy on market volatility and asset price appreciation require careful portfolio positioning.
The global economic crisis has had unprecedented and wide-ranging effects. While governments have tried stimulus measures, rising debt and uncertainty continue to hamper recovery efforts. One potential solution is for governments to print money and allocate it to reduce various stakeholder debt levels, up to 25% of the existing money supply, provided inflation and exchange rates can be managed. This approach would require international coordination and testing in the most affected country first before broader implementation. It could help make economic systems viable again by improving liquidity and removing gloom while maintaining functional financial systems.
This document introduces the concept of theme-based investing and provides an example theme of growing prosperity in emerging markets. It explains how certain themes like increasing consumer demand can drive investment opportunities across many industries from basic materials to healthcare. The document also discusses how East End Wealth Management approaches theme-based investing by focusing on macro trends rather than individual companies and maintaining a globally diverse portfolio. It provides examples of other themes the firm may consider and how contradictory themes require careful analysis of their interacting effects.
The document discusses potential inflation scenarios and their implications for gold prices. It analyzes the likelihood of hyperinflation, deflation, stagflation, and a return to previous low inflation levels. The author argues that stagflation, with high inflation and slowing GDP growth, poses the greatest risk and would be most positive for gold. While the Fed expects current high inflation to be temporary, money supply and debt increases make low pre-pandemic inflation unlikely. Slowing growth projections for 2022 could produce the stagflation scenario gold performs well in.
Below please find a link to our monthly market perspective piece for December. This month we examine the impacts of the rapidly changing low interest rate environment.
The document summarizes a presentation given by the Financial Management Association of New Hampshire on safeguarding cash and investments during turbulent economic times. The presentation addressed the current financial crisis, economic outlook, condition of the financial industry, cash management options, and investment policy guidelines. Panelists discussed issues like capital adequacy, the future of securitization and universal banking, and strategies for preserving capital while generating yield.
This document provides an overview of the current volatile market environment and outlines 10 rules of thumb for navigating periods of increased volatility. It discusses recent declines in major indexes and rise in market volatility. While the authors' base case sees continued slow economic and earnings growth, they note several signs of uncertainty globally. The 10 rules of thumb focus on identifying companies with organic growth opportunities, flexible finances, strong cash flow, and earnings quality to invest successfully through the market cycle.
This document summarizes 10 common and costly pension mistakes that many British people make. These mistakes include not saving enough for retirement, delaying saving which reduces the power of compound returns, failing to regularly check pension pots and investments, ignoring fees which can significantly reduce the overall value of a pension, relying too heavily on inheritances to fund retirement, not taking advantage of employer pension contributions, opting out of company pension schemes which forfeits employer matching contributions, assuming the state pension will be sufficient, not using pensions to save tax through tax relief on contributions, and accessing pensions early which incurs penalties. The document stresses that pension mistakes can be very expensive due to the long time horizon over retirement savings have to grow. It provides examples to
The US economy grew at a decreasing rate in the third quarter of 2010, with GDP growth estimated to fall between 1.5-1.7% and average GDP growth for the year downgraded to 2.5-2.7%. While businesses have healthy balance sheets and cash reserves, uncertainty around taxes, regulations, and health care have discouraged hiring and investment. The Federal Reserve is expected to pursue further quantitative easing to lower interest rates and stimulate the economy. However, the main issues remain lack of business investment due to policy uncertainty and weakness in the housing market, with the unemployment rate remaining high at 9.7%. Upcoming midterm elections could improve optimism if they result in a Republican-controlled House and split Senate.
This document provides an overview and outlook for Q2 2013 from Telemus Capital. It includes the following summaries:
1) A message from the Managing Partner discusses Telemus' investment approach of diversifying across asset classes to participate in up markets while protecting principal in down markets.
2) Jim Robinson provides a global economic and market outlook, noting signs of recovery in Europe and Japan but potential political hurdles in the US. Equities and natural resources are seen as attractive.
3) An equity market commentary discusses generally positive Q4 2012 earnings and outlook for US and international stocks in 2013. Several portfolio changes are noted.
4) A fixed income section explains the characteristics of senior bank loans
A Slow Economy, the Middle Class and New IdeasGene Balas, CFA
This document discusses the state of the US economy and middle class. It notes that median household income has fallen in recent decades while income inequality has risen. This has squeezed the middle class, reducing their spending power and constraining economic growth. Low productivity growth has also held down wages. To revive the economy, the document argues for policies that boost innovation, education, and worker training to increase productivity and wages over the long run.
Investment Opportunity In Indonesia 12 November 2011Adrian Teja
This document discusses several global and Indonesian economic issues:
1) It analyzes balance sheet recessions, quantitative easing, China's role, and the risk of a US Treasury bond bubble bursting.
2) It provides an overview of Indonesia's strong GDP growth drivers like demographics and domestic demand, noting Indonesia may become a safe haven.
3) It outlines Indonesia's "hot issues" for 2012 like demographic bonuses and efficiency-driven growth supporting continued strong capital inflows.
The document discusses why global economies have become increasingly dependent on central bank monetary stimulus to boost economic growth. It argues that a variety of imbalances, such as globalization, debt levels, environmental regulations, and aging populations, have reduced the productivity of capital. To counteract these imbalances, governments and central banks have lowered interest rates, enacted quantitative easing programs, and reduced banking regulations to increase the amount of money and credit in the economy. However, relying too heavily on monetary policy to stimulate growth risks creating larger economic distortions over the long run. Addressing the underlying imbalances through productive economic and social policies could help reduce the need for continual monetary stimulus.
1) Quantitative easing (QE) works by central banks purchasing assets like bonds from private actors, increasing the money supply and stimulating the economy.
2) In the UK, QE has successfully increased the money supply by over 7% annually and boosted asset prices, but bank lending remains weak as households pay down debt.
3) While QE can increase inflation in theory, the UK currently has spare productive capacity and subdued growth, making inflation unlikely in the near future.
The Southern Oregon University 2015 Economic Forecast (1)Sophia Panacy
This document provides an economic forecast for Southern Oregon University for 2015-2017. It was authored by 13 students and analyzes various sectors of the US economy. The summary is:
1) The real sector, including consumption, investment, housing, and government spending, will see moderate growth over the forecast period supported by low interest rates and an improving job market.
2) Nonresidential investment is expected to rise as businesses invest to meet increasing demand, though energy investment may decline due to lower oil prices.
3) The housing industry recovery will continue slowly due to tight lending standards and low inventory despite low interest rates boosting demand.
The document discusses various macroeconomic concepts related to fiscal and monetary policy such as:
- Supply side policies can shift the LRAS curve to increase potential output without raising inflation.
- Fiscal policy tools like government spending, taxation, and transfers can be used for demand management.
- Monetary policy tools like interest rates can influence money supply and demand to impact output and inflation.
- Crowding out refers to how increased government spending and borrowing can reduce private investment by raising interest rates.
The document discusses the impact of economic downturns on the charity sector and provides recommendations for how charities can plan and respond. It notes that while income streams may decline, charitable giving has proven resilient in past recessions. Smaller charities are more vulnerable due to limited reserves. The document recommends that charities focus on their mission, plan for various scenarios, monitor their finances closely, prioritize staff and partnerships, and look for opportunities to collaborate or merge with other organizations. Planning ahead and utilizing available guidance and services can help charities manage through turbulent economic times.
- Real interest rates in the US are currently at their most negative level in almost three decades, which is an important development that should not be ignored by investors.
- Historically, periods of deeply negative real rates have typically been followed by improvements in leading economic indicators and increased spending, consumption, and demand for assets by both consumers and businesses.
- Based on historical relationships, the current negative real rate environment suggests that US economic prospects and equity markets may find increased support and possibly a sustained rally in the coming year.
The Economic Crisis and Recovery - The Economy and Mortgage Markets 2010 and ...Cutler Consulting Inc.
The document summarizes the economic crisis and recovery efforts in the United States. It discusses debates around additional economic stimulus spending, the large budget deficit, and challenges facing the economy including high unemployment, weak growth, and problems in the housing market. The document concludes that mortgage lenders need to improve performance, manage risks better, and prepare for a difficult environment in 2011 with higher interest rates, increased regulation, and continued challenges in the housing sector.
Doubleplus_Finserve_Newsletter-Apr-23.pdfBhavesh Shah
The newsletter discusses issues related to rising inflation globally and in India, and its impact on the economy and financial markets. It provides analysis of factors driving inflation, how governments and central banks try to control it, and advice on how investors should evaluate their portfolios and investment strategies in the current inflationary environment. The newsletter aims to help readers maintain investment confidence during challenging economic times.
4th Qtr Year End 2011 Economic Review Feb 15 [Autosaved] [Autosaved]Gary Crosbie
- Economic growth in 2011 was sluggish at around 1.7% GDP, below the level needed to significantly reduce the unemployment rate. While some improvements were seen, job growth and the labor participation rate remained problematic.
- The Federal Reserve implemented several quantitative easing programs aimed at stimulating growth by lowering interest rates and increasing liquidity, but these have had limited success in spurring lending and investment.
- Continued policy uncertainty around taxes, regulations, healthcare, and the European fiscal crisis have contributed to risk aversion among businesses and investors, limiting hiring and capital expenditures. The economic outlook for 2012 remains tepid.
Over the last year or so, there has been much talk about another impending recession and how it could impact channel management. The recession theory is based upon historical trends, which suggest business cycles tend to last around five to seven years each. That means every five to seven years we experience some sort of a recession. Eventually the economy recovers, and then something else happens to triggers another recession.
A situation in which the wealth of a nation or State or country experiences a sudden downturn brought on by a financial crisis. An economy facing an economic crisis will most likely experience a falling national output, a drying up of liquidity and inflation/deflation. An economic crisis can take the form of a recession or depression.
The European Central Bank recently announced a Negative Interest Rate Policy where they will charge banks a 0.10% rate to keep deposits. This is aimed at preventing deflation by incentivizing banks to issue more loans. While an unusual approach, negative interest rates and the Fed's zero rates both aim to boost economic growth through increased lending. However, very low rates have downsides like hurting savers, and the commentary argues against investing in government bonds due to inflated prices from central bank actions. Europe is not expected to fall into deflation as the ECB has tools to support recovery, though rates will likely stay very low.
Columbia Threadneedle Investments announced a rebranding of the business as Columbia Threadneedle Investments through the combining of Threadneedle Investments and Columbia Management. The experienced portfolio managers, strong product range, and robust processes remain unchanged, with no changes to fund names, account numbers, phone numbers, or the investor center address. The new brand represents the combined capabilities and resources of the two companies that are now both owned by Ameriprise Financial. Together they manage over $500 billion in assets with over 450 investment professionals located across 18 countries.
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OJP data from firms like Vicinity Jobs have emerged as a complement to traditional sources of labour demand data, such as the Job Vacancy and Wages Survey (JVWS). Ibrahim Abuallail, PhD Candidate, University of Ottawa, presented research relating to bias in OJPs and a proposed approach to effectively adjust OJP data to complement existing official data (such as from the JVWS) and improve the measurement of labour demand.
In a tight labour market, job-seekers gain bargaining power and leverage it into greater job quality—at least, that’s the conventional wisdom.
Michael, LMIC Economist, presented findings that reveal a weakened relationship between labour market tightness and job quality indicators following the pandemic. Labour market tightness coincided with growth in real wages for only a portion of workers: those in low-wage jobs requiring little education. Several factors—including labour market composition, worker and employer behaviour, and labour market practices—have contributed to the absence of worker benefits. These will be investigated further in future work.
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Seminar on gender diversity spillovers through ownership networks at FAME|GRAPE. Presenting novel research. Studies in economics and management using econometrics methods.
2. Elemental Economics - Mineral demand.pdfNeal Brewster
After this second you should be able to: Explain the main determinants of demand for any mineral product, and their relative importance; recognise and explain how demand for any product is likely to change with economic activity; recognise and explain the roles of technology and relative prices in influencing demand; be able to explain the differences between the rates of growth of demand for different products.
Financial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptxWrito-Finance
financial assets represent claim for future benefit or cash. Financial assets are formed by establishing contracts between participants. These financial assets are used for collection of huge amounts of money for business purposes.
Two major Types: Debt Securities and Equity Securities.
Debt Securities are Also known as fixed-income securities or instruments. The type of assets is formed by establishing contracts between investor and issuer of the asset.
• The first type of Debit securities is BONDS. Bonds are issued by corporations and government (both local and national government).
• The second important type of Debit security is NOTES. Apart from similarities associated with notes and bonds, notes have shorter term maturity.
• The 3rd important type of Debit security is TRESURY BILLS. These securities have short-term ranging from three months, six months, and one year. Issuer of such securities are governments.
• Above discussed debit securities are mostly issued by governments and corporations. CERTIFICATE OF DEPOSITS CDs are issued by Banks and Financial Institutions. Risk factor associated with CDs gets reduced when issued by reputable institutions or Banks.
Following are the risk attached with debt securities: Credit risk, interest rate risk and currency risk
There are no fixed maturity dates in such securities, and asset’s value is determined by company’s performance. There are two major types of equity securities: common stock and preferred stock.
Common Stock: These are simple equity securities and bear no complexities which the preferred stock bears. Holders of such securities or instrument have the voting rights when it comes to select the company’s board of director or the business decisions to be made.
Preferred Stock: Preferred stocks are sometime referred to as hybrid securities, because it contains elements of both debit security and equity security. Preferred stock confers ownership rights to security holder that is why it is equity instrument
<a href="https://www.writofinance.com/equity-securities-features-types-risk/" >Equity securities </a> as a whole is used for capital funding for companies. Companies have multiple expenses to cover. Potential growth of company is required in competitive market. So, these securities are used for capital generation, and then uses it for company’s growth.
Concluding remarks
Both are employed in business. Businesses are often established through debit securities, then what is the need for equity securities. Companies have to cover multiple expenses and expansion of business. They can also use equity instruments for repayment of debits. So, there are multiple uses for securities. As an investor, you need tools for analysis. Investment decisions are made by carefully analyzing the market. For better analysis of the stock market, investors often employ financial analysis of companies.
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"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
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Rebalancing the UK economy - Peter Hahn, Cass Business School
1. Rebalancing the UK Economy (While Wealth Shifts East) Pete Hahn Foundation for Management Education Fellow Corporate Finance, Governance & Banking July 2008