1. Rajendra Shende, TERRE
Former Director UNEP
XV European Conference
7-8 June 2013

2. “The Montreal
Protocol is….. the
most successful
climate treaty to
date…”
Mario Molina Nobel Laureate
et al. 2009, PNAS

3. Bail out by theBail out by the
Montreal Protocol…Montreal Protocol…
Reduction Montreal Protocol
of ~11 GtCO2-eq/yr
 5-6 times Kyoto target

4. • Complacency Results in Talks with little ActionComplacency Results in Talks with little Action
……Lessons ?Lessons ?
• More data gets generated about Past than FutureMore data gets generated about Past than Future
• Policy makers breed the success by less successPolicy makers breed the success by less success

5. OZONE
DEPLETION
GLOBAL
WARMING
GLOBAL
WARMING

6. Managing our AtmosphereManaging our Atmosphere
Bring Down To
Stabilize at
Chlorine Loading :Chlorine Loading : Chemistry of Montreal ProtocolChemistry of Montreal Protocol
* 4 ppb 2 ppb
CO2 Concentration:CO2 Concentration: Chemistry of Kyoto ProtocolChemistry of Kyoto Protocol
* 380 ppm 280 ppm ( 450 ppm)

9. SROC Figure TS -1
Direct GWP-weighted emissions
SROC Figure TS -9

10. ….if high-GWP HFCs
become the primary
replacements to HCFCs,

11. “Without immediate action to address
these challenges and strengthen the
treaty, the Montreal Protocol is in
danger of becoming a liability to the
global commons.
“We the Peoples: the Role of the United Nations in the 21st Century”,
2000, pg 56
The reputation of the
Montreal Protocol is at stake.

12. BAU could result in the Montreal Protocol
being responsible for the emission of
130-190 Gt CO2-eq.
(Velders et al. 2009 estimates of HFC emissions + ODS Banks).
If we consider the reduced energy efficiency
in refrigeration and Air conditioning
equipment and appliances this figure would
be much higher.
The reputation of the
Montreal Protocol is at stake.

13. Research in Progress ….Research in Progress ….
14 new refrigerants,40 under testing14 new refrigerants,40 under testing,,
32 yest to get designation32 yest to get designation
……Speed?Speed?
Cooperation?Cooperation?

14. Challenges
Threat from "banks”
Market imperatives
China Factor

15. Green Economy : Are we
missing theopportunity?
Global Cooperation on system developmen
New Business Opportunities, Employment
Spring Board : Financing Energy efficiency

16. ENERGY EFFICIENCY
IMPROVEMENT-Domestic Refrigerator -
Domestic Refrigerators
700
550
450
375
1750
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1972 1993 2001 2004 2007
Year
KwH

17. ++
BURDEN
__
19921987 1997
Ref: OzonAction
Social &
economic
Cost
TECHNOLOGY FOSTERING:
EFFICIENCY GAINS
Experience of Montreal Protocol
BENEFITS
Year

18. We have demonstrated concerted and Synchronised actions
WE Can Lose the battle But not lesson

19. END