This document contains numerous charts and graphs related to economic indicators in the United States and globally. It shows data on consumer confidence, business confidence, GDP growth, monetary policy, jobs, profits and other topics. The data comes from sources like the OECD, IMF, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Census Bureau and others. Overall the data suggests moderate global economic growth and strengthening conditions in the US economy in recent months.

1. Brown Sugar:
Deriving Satisfactionthrough Data
Analysis
By: Anirban Basu
Sage PolicyGroup, Inc.
On Behalfof
The MEDA 2018 Annual Conference
April 30th,2018
Disclaimer: Anyresemblance
between thepresentation’s title
andthespeakeris purelycoincidental.

2. Get off
of My
Cloud

3. IPSOS Global Confidence Index, April2018
Source:IPSOS
Based on data from Thomson Reuters/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI).
2
© 2018 Ipsos
US
Largest drops
Poland
Mexico
Belgium
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE GLOBAL SNAPSHOT
Ipsos Consumer Confidence Index
April 2018
Canada
Mexico
Argentina
56.4/ +1.3
63.6/ +2.0
47.6/ -1.0
44.9 /-4.5
Brazil
42.9/ -2.7
50.9/+0.4
Great Britain
France
42.4/-3.7
Spain
44.7/+0.5 Italy
41.0/+3.1
South Africa
44.4/ -0.1
Germany
58.9/ +0.8
Poland
49.2/-5.7
Sweden
62.8/0.0
Hungary
50.3/+7.2
Israel
57.3/+3.7
Turkey
38.6/-1.7
Saudi Arabia
56.2/+4.6
Russia
41.4/+4.4
China
72.3/+2.6
India
64.6/ -0.6
South Korea
46.4/+1.1
Japan
44.5/-0.5
Australia
53.7/0.0
47.2/-3.8
Belgium
High Low
Country
Index/3-month change
Change≥ +1.5
Change ≥ -1.5
Largest gains
Hungary
Saudi Arabia
Russia
Global Average: 50.9
(3-month change: +0.3)
Highest (over 60) In:
China, India, U.S.,
Sweden
Lowest (below 40) in:
Turkey
Up in 7 countries:
Hungary, Saudi Arabia,
Russia, Israel, Italy,
China, U.S.
Down in 6 countries:
Poland, Mexico,
Belgium, France,
Brazil, Turkey
Based on data from Thomson Reuters/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI).© 2018 Ipsos
US
Largest drops
Poland
Mexico
Belgium
Ipsos Consumer Confidence Index
April 2018
Canada
Mexico
Argentina
56.4/ +1.3
63.6/ +2.0
47.6/ -1.0
44.9 /-4.5
Brazil
42.9/ -2.7
50.9/+0.4
Great Britain
France
42.4/-3.7
Spain
44.7/+0.5 Italy
41.0/+3.1
South Africa
44.4/ -0.1
Germany
58.9/ +0.8
Poland
49.2/-5.7
Sweden
62.8/0.0
Hungary
50.3/+7.2
Israel
57.3/+3.7
Turkey
38.6/-1.7
Saudi Arabia
56.2/+4.6
Russia
41.4/+4.4
China
72.3/+2.6
India
64.6/ -0.6
South Korea
46.4/+1.1
Japan
44.5/-0.5
Australia
53.7/0.0
47.2/-3.8
Belgium
High Low
Country
Index/3-month change
Change≥ +1.5
Change ≥ -1.5
Largest gains
Hungary
Saudi Arabia
Russia
Global Average: 50.9
(3-month change: +0
Highest (over 60) In:
China, India, U.S.,
Sweden
Lowest (below 40) in
Turkey
Up in 7 countries:
Hungary, Saudi Arabia
Russia, Israel, Italy,
China, U.S.
Down in 6 countries:
Poland, Mexico,
Belgium, France,
Brazil, Turkey

4. The business confidence index (BCI) is based on enterprises’ assessment of production, orders and stocks, as well as its
current position and expectations for the immediate future. Opinions compared to a “normal” state are collected and the
difference between positive and negative answers provides a qualitative index on economic conditions.
OECD Business Confidence Index –SelectRegions/Countries
March2000-March2018
Source:OECD
94.0
95.0
96.0
97.0
98.0
99.0
100.0
101.0
102.0
103.0
104.0
Mar-00
Sep-00
Mar-01
Sep-01
Mar-02
Sep-02
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Mar-16
Sep-16
Mar-17
Sep-17
Mar-18
OECD - Total Euro area (19 countries) United States China

5. Global Monetary Policy Tightening/Easing
AsofMarch2018
The CFR Global Monetary Policy Tracker covers
fifty-four large countries—mainly those that
target inflation in some manner. Tightening
policy is indicated in red, loosening in blue.
The more a country has raised (lowered) rates,
in percentage points, from the most recent
trough (peak) in its policy rate, the darker the
shade of red (blue). Generally, the policy rate
target is the overnight interbank rate, with
exceptions indicated.
Source:Council on ForeignRelations (CFR), Global MonetaryPolicy Tracker

6. Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas
2018Projected
Source: International MonetaryFund: World Economic Outlook Database, April 2018
2.3%
2.3%
2.0%
3.4%
7.4%
6.6%
6.5%
1.7%
4.3%
3.4%
4.9%
2.9%
3.0%
2.1%
1.6%
1.2%
2.8%
1.5%
2.5%
2.1%
2.4%
2.5%
-6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%
Brazil
Mexico
Latin America & the Caribbean
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, & Pakistan
India
China
Emerging & Developing Asia
Russia
Emerging & Developing Europe
Sub-Saharan Africa
Emerging Market & Developing Economies
United States
Canada
Australia
Japan
Italy
United Kingdom
France
Germany
Spain
Euro Area
Advanced Economies
Annual % Change
2018 Proj. Global Output Growth: +3.9%
2017 Growth (Estimate)
World: 3.8% Euro Area: 2.3%
United States: 2.3% Japan: 1.7%

7. Start Me Up

8. 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2005
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Oct-16
Apr-17
Oct-17
Apr-18
April 2018 = 128.7
where 1985 = 100
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index
2005–April2018
Source:ConferenceBoard

9. NFIBIndex of Small BusinessOptimism,1986-2018
Source:NationalFederationofIndependentBusiness(NFIB)
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
Mar-86
Mar-87
Mar-88
Mar-89
Mar-90
Mar-91
Mar-92
Mar-93
Mar-94
Mar-95
Mar-96
Mar-97
Mar-98
Mar-99
Mar-00
Mar-01
Mar-02
Mar-03
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
Mar-17
Mar-18
Seasonally Adjusted 1986=100
Mar. 2018:
104.7

10. Paint It Black – Corporate Profits
U.S.CorporateProfits AfterTax*
Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis *WithInventoryValuationAdjustment(IVA)andCapitalConsumptionAdjustment
(CCAdj);SeasonallyAdjustedAnnualRate
$0
$400
$800
$1,200
$1,600
$2,000
1950Q2
1951Q4
1953Q2
1954Q4
1956Q2
1957Q4
1959Q2
1960Q4
1962Q2
1963Q4
1965Q2
1966Q4
1968Q2
1969Q4
1971Q2
1972Q4
1974Q2
1975Q4
1977Q2
1978Q4
1980Q2
1981Q4
1983Q2
1984Q4
1986Q2
1987Q4
1989Q2
1990Q4
1992Q2
1993Q4
1995Q2
1996Q4
1998Q2
1999Q4
2001Q2
2002Q4
2004Q2
2005Q4
2007Q2
2008Q4
2010Q2
2011Q4
2013Q2
2014Q4
2016Q2
2017Q4
$ Billions
2017Q4: $1.77 Trillion

11. U.S. Job Openings
February2001throughFebruary2018
Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0 Feb-01
Aug-01
Feb-02
Aug-02
Feb-03
Aug-03
Feb-04
Aug-04
Feb-05
Aug-05
Feb-06
Aug-06
Feb-07
Aug-07
Feb-08
Aug-08
Feb-09
Aug-09
Feb-10
Aug-10
Feb-11
Aug-11
Feb-12
Aug-12
Feb-13
Aug-13
Feb-14
Aug-14
Feb-15
Aug-15
Feb-16
Aug-16
Feb-17
Aug-17
Feb-18
JobOpenings(Millions)
Feb. 2018:
6.05M Openings

12. NetChange in U.S. Jobs
March2002throughMarch2018
Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600 Mar-02
Jul-02
Nov-02
Mar-03
Jul-03
Nov-03
Mar-04
Jul-04
Nov-04
Mar-05
Jul-05
Nov-05
Mar-06
Jul-06
Nov-06
Mar-07
Jul-07
Nov-07
Mar-08
Jul-08
Nov-08
Mar-09
Jul-09
Nov-09
Mar-10
Jul-10
Nov-10
Mar-11
Jul-11
Nov-11
Mar-12
Jul-12
Nov-12
Mar-13
Jul-13
Nov-13
Mar-14
Jul-14
Nov-14
Mar-15
Jul-15
Nov-15
Mar-16
Jul-16
Nov-16
Mar-17
Jul-17
Nov-17
Mar-18
Thousands
March 2018:
+103K

13. National Nonfarm Employment
byIndustry Sector,March2017v.March2018
Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics
-49
12
62
88
136
228
232
295
312
443
502
-100 0 100 200 300 400 500
Information
Government
Mining and Logging
Other Services
Financial Activities
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Leisure and Hospitality
Education and Health Services
Professional and Business Services
Thousands, SA
All told 2,261K jobs gained

14. U.S. Labor ForceParticipation: Men Ages 25-34
2000–2018
Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics,CurrentPopulationSurvey
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
2000Q1
2000Q3
2001Q1
2001Q3
2002Q1
2002Q3
2003Q1
2003Q3
2004Q1
2004Q3
2005Q1
2005Q3
2006Q1
2006Q3
2007Q1
2007Q3
2008Q1
2008Q3
2009Q1
2009Q3
2010Q1
2010Q3
2011Q1
2011Q3
2012Q1
2012Q3
2013Q1
2013Q3
2014Q1
2014Q3
2015Q1
2015Q3
2016Q1
2016Q3
2017Q1
2017Q3
2018Q1
89.1%

15. Baltimore-Columbia-Towson MSA Nonfarm Employment
byIndustrySectorGroups(NSA)
March2017v.March2018AbsoluteChange
Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics
-600
-400
-300
-100
100
1,600
2,400
2,900
5,800
9,900
-2,000 2,000 6,000 10,000
Other Services
Information
Manufacturing
Financial Activities
Leisure and Hospitality
Government
Mining, Logging, and Construction
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Professional and Business Services
Education and Health Services
Baltimore MSA Total:
+21.3K; +1.5%
MD Total (SA):
+10.8K; +0.4%
US Total (SA):
+2,261K; +1.5%

16. -500
-400
-300
-200
200
300
600
800
2,000
2,400
-1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000
Information
Professional and Business Services
Government
Other Services
Financial Activities
Manufacturing
Leisure and Hospitality
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Education and Health Services
Mining, Logging, and Construction
Silver Spring-Frederick-Rockville, MD Metro Division Nonfarm Employment
byIndustrySectorGroups(SA)
March2017v.March2018AbsoluteChange
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
SS-F-R MSA Total:
+4.9K; +0.8%
MD Total (SA):
+10.8K; +0.4%
US Total (SA):
+2,261K; +1.5%

17. -500
-400
-300
-200
200
300
600
800
2,000
2,400
-1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000
Information
Professional and Business Services
Government
Other Services
Financial Activities
Manufacturing
Leisure and Hospitality
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Education and Health Services
Mining, Logging, and Construction
Silver Spring-Frederick-Rockville, MD Metro Division Nonfarm Employment
byIndustrySectorGroups(SA)
March2017v.March2018AbsoluteChange
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
SS-F-R MSA Total:
+4.9K; +0.8%
MD Total (SA):
+10.8K; +0.4%
US Total (SA):
+2,261K; +1.5%

18. -3,400
-3,200
-200
-200
-100
100
100
500
800
1,200
-4,000 -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000
Government
Leisure and Hospitality
Manufacturing
Information
Mining, Logging, and Construction
Financial Activities
Other Services
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Professional and Business Services
Education and Health Services
Calvert-Charles-Prince George’s Nonfarm Employment
byIndustrySectorGroups(SA)
March2017v.March2018AbsoluteChange
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
C-Ch-P Total:
-4.4K; -1.1%
MD Total (SA):
+10.8K; +0.4%
US Total (SA):
+2,261K; +1.5%

19. -500
-400
-200
0
0
100
100
200
300
900
-600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000
Financial Activities
Information
Government
Professional and Business Services
Other Services
Education and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Mining, Logging, and Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Hagerstown-Martinsburg MSA Nonfarm Employment
byIndustrySectorGroups(SA)
March2017v.March2018AbsoluteChange
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Hagerstown MSA
Total: +0.5K; +0.5%
MD Total (SA):
+10.8K; +0.4%
US Total (SA):
+2,261K; +1.5%

20. Salisbury City EmploymentGrowth(NSA)
February2010–February2018
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-1,700
-1,200
-700
-200
300
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Aug-13
Oct-13
Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Feb-16
Apr-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Feb-18
12-MonthNetChange
February 2017 v. February 2018:
+171 jobs (+1.2%)

21. Maryland Nonfarm Employment
byIndustrySectorGroups(SA)
March2017v.March2018AbsoluteChange
Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics
-5,100
-2,200
-1,700
-1,600
-1,100
1,400
2,100
2,400
3,800
12,800
-7,000 -2,000 3,000 8,000 13,000
Leisure and Hospitality
Financial Activities
Government
Information
Other Services
Manufacturing
Mining, Logging, and Construction
Professional and Business Services
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Education and Health Services
MD Total:
+10.8K; +0.4%
US Total (SA):
+2,261K; +1.5%
*Accordingto the Local AreaUnemploymentStatistics (LAUS) series
MD added 11,460jobs between March2017and March 2018.

22. RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE %
1 IDAHO 3.3 18 MICHIGAN 1.4 35 IOWA 0.7
1 UTAH 3.3 18 PENNSYLVANIA 1.4 35 MINNESOTA 0.7
3 NEVADA 2.9 20 HAWAII 1.3 35 WEST VIRGINIA 0.7
4 WASHINGTON 2.8 20 MISSISSIPPI 1.3 38 ILLINOIS 0.6
5 COLORADO 2.4 20 NEW HAMPSHIRE 1.3 38 LOUISIANA 0.6
5 TEXAS 2.4 20 RHODE ISLAND 1.3 38 MONTANA 0.6
7 ARIZONA 2.3 24 MASSACHUSETTS 1.2 38 NEBRASKA 0.6
8 OREGON 2.2 24 NEW MEXICO 1.2 42 CONNECTICUT 0.5
9 FLORIDA 2.0 24 NEW YORK 1.2 42 DELAWARE 0.5
10 CALIFORNIA 1.9 24 WYOMING 1.2 42 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 0.5
11 NORTH CAROLINA 1.7 28 ALABAMA 1.0 42 MAINE 0.5
11 OKLAHOMA 1.7 28 MISSOURI 1.0 46 MARYLAND 0.4
11 SOUTH CAROLINA 1.7 28 OHIO 1.0 46 ARKANSAS 0.4
14 NEW JERSEY 1.6 28 VIRGINIA 1.0 48 KENTUCKY 0.2
14 TENNESSEE 1.6 28 WISCONSIN 1.0 48 VERMONT 0.2
16 GEORGIA 1.5 33 INDIANA 0.9 50 ALASKA -0.2
16 SOUTH DAKOTA 1.5 34 KANSAS 0.8 51 NORTH DAKOTA -1.3
Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA)
March2017v.March2018PercentChange
Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics
U.S.Year-over-yearPercentChange:+1.5%

23. Rank MSA % Rank MSA %
1 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL MSA 3.5 14 Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD MSA 1.5
2 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ MSA 3.2 14 San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA MSA 1.5
2 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA MSA 3.2 16 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA MSA 1.4
4 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA 3.0 17 New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA MSA 1.3
4 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA MSA 3.0
18
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria,
DC-VA-MD-WV MSA
1.2
6 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA 2.8
7 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO MSA 2.5 18 Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI MSA 1.2
8 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL MSA 2.2 18
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
MSA
1.2
9 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX MSA 2.1 21
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
MSA
1.1
10 San Diego-Carlsbad, CA MSA 1.9 22
Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH Metro
NECTA
0.9
11 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX MSA 1.8 22 St. Louis, MO-IL MSA 0.9
12 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA MSA 1.7 24 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA 0.8
12 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA MSA 1.7 25 Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI MSA 0.5
Employment Growth, 25 Largest Metros(NSA)
March2017v.March2018PercentChange
Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics,CurrentEmploymentStatistics(CES)Survey

24. Unemployment Rates, 25 Largest Metros(NSA)
February2018
Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics,CurrentEmploymentStatistics(CES)Survey 1.AreaboundariesdonotreflectofficialOMBdefinitions.
U.S.UnemploymentRate:4.1%
Rank MSA UR Rank MSA UR
1 San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA MSA 2.9 14 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA MSA 4.2
2 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO MSA 3.1 15 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA MSA 4.3
3 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA 3.3 15 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA 4.3
4 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL MSA 3.4 15 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA MSA 4.3
4 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX MSA 3.4 18 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ MSA 4.4
6
Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH Metro
NECTA
3.5 18 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA MSA 4.4
6 San Diego-Carlsbad, CA MSA 3.5 20 Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD MSA 4.6
8
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-
MD-WV MSA
3.6 20 Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI MSA 4.6
8 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL MSA 3.6 20 New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA MSA 4.6
10 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA 3.7 23 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX MSA 4.7
11 St. Louis, MO-IL MSA (1) 3.8
24
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-
MD MSA
4.9
12 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA MSA 4.0
13
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
MSA
4.1 25 Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI MSA 5.2

25. Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics
Rank Jurisdiction % Rank Jurisdiction %
1 Howard County 3.4 13 Talbot County 4.9
2 Montgomery County 3.5 14 Caroline County 5.0
3 Anne Arundel County 3.8 15 Cecil County 5.3
4 Carroll County 3.9 15 Washington County 5.3
5 Calvert County 4.0 17 Kent County 6.1
6 Frederick County 4.1 18 Baltimore City 6.4
6 Queen Anne's County 4.1 19 Garrett County 6.5
8 Charles County 4.3 20 Dorchester County 6.6
8 Harford County 4.3 21 Allegany County 6.7
10 St. Mary's County 4.4 22 Wicomico County 7.0
11 Prince George's County 4.5 23 Somerset County 8.6
12 Baltimore County 4.6 24 Worcester County 12.1
Maryland Unemployment Rates by County
February2018

26. MarylandJurisdictions:Population Change
April2010-July2017
Source: Maryland Departmentof Planning
Source: Maryland Department of Planning
Maryland:
+4.6%
Jurisdiction % Chg. Jurisdiction % Chg.
Howard 11.3% Washington 1.9%
Charles 8.6% Cecil 1.6%
Montgomery 8.5% Caroline 0.4%
Frederick 7.6% Worcester 0.4%
St.Mary's 6.6% Carroll 0.3%
Anne Arundel 6.3% BaltimoreCity -1.5%
PrinceGeorge's 5.5% Dorchester -1.6%
QueenAnne's 4.1% Somerset -2.1%
Wicomico 4.0% Talbot -2.1%
Baltimore 3.2% Garrett -3.0%
Calvert 2.8% Kent -4.1%
Harford 2.8% Allegany -4.5%

27. Fastest/Slowest Growing MD Municipalities
Population GrowthApril2010 –July2016
Source: Maryland Department of Planning; U.S. Census Bureau
TOP 20 BOTTOM 20
RANK CITY/PLACE COUNTY % RANK CITY/PLACE COUNTY %
1 Leonardtown town St. Mary's 27.25% 138 Preston town Caroline -2.75%
2 Gaithersburg city Montgomery 13.14% 139 Chestertown town Kent -2.76%
3 Centreville town Queen Anne's 10.01% 140 Accident town Garrett -2.77%
4 Rockville city Montgomery 9.29% 141 Luke town Allegany -3.08%
5 Princess Anne town Somerset 8.88% 142 Loch Lynn Heights town Garrett -3.08%
6 Salisbury city Wicomico 8.55% 143 Queen Anne town Queen Anne's/Talbot -3.15%
7 Emmitsburg town Frederick 8.23% 144 Crisfield city Somerset -3.38%
8 Fruitland city Wicomico 8.10% 145 Frostburg city Allegany -3.39%
9 Frederick city Frederick 7.31% 146 Friendsville town Garrett -3.46%
10 Poolesville town Montgomery 6.92% 147 Kitzmiller town Garrett -3.74%
11 Washington Grove town Montgomery 6.62% 148 Deer Park town Garrett -3.80%
12 North Chevy Chase village Montgomery 6.53% 149 Cumberland city Allegany -4.09%
13 Somerset town Montgomery 6.42% 150 Betterton town Kent -4.14%
14 Chevy Chase View town Montgomery 6.36% 151 Lonaconing town Allegany -4.55%
15 Kensington town Montgomery 6.25% 152 Westernport town Allegany -4.87%
16 Takoma Park city Montgomery 6.24% 153 Barton town Allegany -5.07%
17 Highland Beach town Anne Arundel 6.19% 154 Millington town Kent -5.11%
18 College Park city Prince George's 6.12% 155 Oxford town Talbot -5.22%
19 Garrett Park town Montgomery 5.98% 156 Midland town Allegany -5.56%
20 Myersville town Frederick 5.97% 157 Trappe town Talbot -5.76%

28. Gimme
Shelter

29. 15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
April1995throughApril2018*
Source:FreddieMac
*Week ending 4/26/2018
4.02%
4.58%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Apr-95
Oct-95
Apr-96
Oct-96
Apr-97
Oct-97
Apr-98
Oct-98
Apr-99
Oct-99
Apr-00
Oct-00
Apr-01
Oct-01
Apr-02
Oct-02
Apr-03
Oct-03
Apr-04
Oct-04
Apr-05
Oct-05
Apr-06
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Oct-16
Apr-17
Oct-17
Apr-18
Rate
15-yr 30-yr

30. U.S. Households: Owner v. Renter Occupied, 1965-2017
Source:U.S.CensusBureau;PewResearchCenter
36.2
75.4 76.2
21.3
34.2
43.1
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
# of Household Heads
(Millions)
Homeowners
Renters
• From 2006-2017 the
number of households
headed by owners
remained relatively flat.
• At the same time, the
number of households
renting their home
increased significantly
(+26%).
• The share of renter
households also
increased—from 31.2%
of households in 2006 to
36.1% in 2017.

31. 58%
60%
62%
64%
66%
68%
70%
1980Q1
1981Q1
1982Q1
1983Q1
1984Q1
1985Q1
1986Q1
1987Q1
1988Q1
1989Q1
1990Q1
1991Q1
1992Q1
1993Q1
1994Q1
1995Q1
1996Q1
1997Q1
1998Q1
1999Q1
2000Q1
2001Q1
2002Q1
2003Q1
2004Q1
2005Q1
2006Q1
2007Q1
2008Q1
2009Q1
2010Q1
2011Q1
2012Q1
2013Q1
2014Q1
2015Q1
2016Q1
2017Q1
2018Q1
2018Q1:
64.2%
U.S. Homeownership(NSA)
1980Q1-2018Q1
Source:U.S.CensusBureau *NSA:notseasonallyadjusted

32. $0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
Feb-93
Feb-94
Feb-95
Feb-96
Feb-97
Feb-98
Feb-99
Feb-00
Feb-01
Feb-02
Feb-03
Feb-04
Feb-05
Feb-06
Feb-07
Feb-08
Feb-09
Feb-10
Feb-11
Feb-12
Feb-13
Feb-14
Feb-15
Feb-16
Feb-17
Feb-18
$Billions(SAAR) U.S. Private New Multifamily Construction
February1993throughFebruary2018
Source:U.S.CensusBureau

33. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for Select Metros
February2018,12-MonthPercentageChange
Source:Standard&Poor’s
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2.4% 2.6%
4.6%
5.7% 6.0% 6.4% 6.5% 6.8%
8.3% 8.4% 8.4%
10.1%
11.7%
12-Month%Change

34. U.S. Single-Family Housing Starts
March1999throughMarch2018
Source:U.S.CensusBureau
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000 Mar-99
Sep-99
Mar-00
Sep-00
Mar-01
Sep-01
Mar-02
Sep-02
Mar-03
Sep-03
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Mar-16
Sep-16
Mar-17
Sep-17
Mar-18
Thousands,SAAR
March 2018: 867K

35. 19th
Nervous
Breakdown

36. GrossDomestic Product
1990Q1through2018Q1*
Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis *1st (Advance)Estimate
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8% 1990Q1
1991Q1
1992Q1
1993Q1
1994Q1
1995Q1
1996Q1
1997Q1
1998Q1
1999Q1
2000Q1
2001Q1
2002Q1
2003Q1
2004Q1
2005Q1
2006Q1
2007Q1
2008Q1
2009Q1
2010Q1
2011Q1
2012Q1
2013Q1
2014Q1
2015Q1
2016Q1
2017Q1
2018Q1
%ChangefromPrecedingPeriod(SAAR)
2018Q1: +2.3%

37. Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index
August2007 throughMarch2018
Source:ConferenceBoard
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5% Aug-07
Nov-07
Feb-08
May-08
Aug-08
Nov-08
Feb-09
May-09
Aug-09
Nov-09
Feb-10
May-10
Aug-10
Nov-10
Feb-11
May-11
Aug-11
Nov-11
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
Feb-13
May-13
Aug-13
Nov-13
Feb-14
May-14
Aug-14
Nov-14
Feb-15
May-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Feb-16
May-16
Aug-16
Nov-16
Feb-17
May-17
Aug-17
Nov-17
Feb-18
One-monthPercentChange
March 2018: 109.0
where 2016: 100

38. U.S. Saving Rate, February2005 – February 2018
(SavingsasPercentageofPersonalDisposable Income)
Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Feb-05
Jun-05
Oct-05
Feb-06
Jun-06
Oct-06
Feb-07
Jun-07
Oct-07
Feb-08
Jun-08
Oct-08
Feb-09
Jun-09
Oct-09
Feb-10
Jun-10
Oct-10
Feb-11
Jun-11
Oct-11
Feb-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
Jun-13
Oct-13
Feb-14
Jun-14
Oct-14
Feb-15
Jun-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Jun-16
Oct-16
Feb-17
Jun-17
Oct-17
Feb-18
SavingsRate(%)
February 2018:
3.4%

39. Global Debt Reaches AllTime Highs (IIF)
Sources:1.InstituteofInternationalFinance(IFF),GlobalDebtMonitor.2.BusinessInsider.3.TheTelegraph.4.Reuters.
• According to the International Institute of Finance (IIF), global debt
has reached an all-time high in 2016;
• At $215 trillion, global debt—including household, government, and
corporate—now represents 325% of global GDP;
• Last year the IMF warned of risks to the global economy:
• “sheer size of debt could set the stage for an unprecedented private
deleveraging process that could thwart the fragile economic recovery”

40. ShillerPrice-EarningsRatio, 1980-2018
Source:RobertJ.ShillerData usedinhisbook,"IrrationalExuberance"PrincetonUniversityPress.
0
10
20
30
40
50
Mar-80
Mar-81
Mar-82
Mar-83
Mar-84
Mar-85
Mar-86
Mar-87
Mar-88
Mar-89
Mar-90
Mar-91
Mar-92
Mar-93
Mar-94
Mar-95
Mar-96
Mar-97
Mar-98
Mar-99
Mar-00
Mar-01
Mar-02
Mar-03
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
Mar-17
Mar-18
Mar. 2018:
32.77

41. Shattered!--- BitcoinPrice, 2014-2018
Source:CoinMarketCap.com
$0
$4,000
$8,000
$12,000
$16,000
$20,000 4/1/14
6/1/14
8/1/14
10/1/14
12/1/14
2/1/15
4/1/15
6/1/15
8/1/15
10/1/15
12/1/15
2/1/16
4/1/16
6/1/16
8/1/16
10/1/16
12/1/16
2/1/17
4/1/17
6/1/17
8/1/17
10/1/17
12/1/17
2/1/18
4/1/18
4/23/2018:
$8.9K

42. Time is on My Side, at least in the Near-Term
• U.S. setting up for best year since
’05. . .;
• Global economy also picking up
momentum, in large measure due
to policymaking;
• Job opportunities are abundant;
• Corporate profitability elevated;
• Consumer and business confidence
has been surging. . .;
• And now tax cuts, including major
reductions in corporate taxes . . .
What could go wrong?;
• A lot can go wrong – that’s always true
– first there are the Black Swan threats:
• “I’m forever blowing bubbles, pretty
bubbles in the air, they fly so high,
nearly reach the sky, and like my
dreams, they fade and die”;
• Where are all the pretty bubbles?
Equity markets? U.S. bond market?
Commercial real estate? Bitcoin?
• 2018 will be fine – better than fine –
2019 might be, too, but beyond that,
potential deleveraging cycle prompted
by a repricing of assets – Bad!!!!

43. Thank You
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