Crowdoscope Founder Michael Silverman's presentation slides from the 2018 Crowd Predictions Conference in Copenhagen.

1. Using the Crowd to Make
Qualitative Predictions
Michael Silverman

2. Overview
• Quantitative vs Qualitative predictions
• Qualitative predictions in organisations
• Challenges for implementation:
• Administration
• Managerial & Leadership
• Socio-cognitive
• Design
• Case Studies:
• Unilever – Organisational change
• CIPD – Future of the HR Function
• Questions

3. Using Qualitative Predictions in Organisations
• Understanding potential challenges & risks
• Prioritising work streams, projects and tasks
• Forecasting market & industry trends:
– Develop new products and services
–Inform organisational strategy & structure

4. Admin
• Lack of participation/detail
• Recruiting participants
• Anonymity
• Conflict & abuse
Managerial
& Leadership
Design
• Loss of control
• IP & security
• Crowd workers
Socio-
Cognitive
• Evaluation mechanisms
• Confidence of evaluations
• Text Analysis
• List-based Interfaces
• Fragmentation
• Group decision making
• Cognitive biases
• Lack of action• Polarisation
Challenges in using Qualitative Predictions

5. The Evolution of List Based Interfaces
Community Memory, University of California at Berkeley, 1973

7. Case Study: Predicting the future of HR at the CIPD

8. Case Study: Predicting Disruption in the Quality Profession

9. Thank you! For more information, please visit:
www.crowdoscope.com