IEA Photovoltaic System Programme Roma, 27 aprile 2017 - Auditorium GSE

1. PV 2.0: Italian Focus
Luca Benedetti

2. RES in electricity sector in Italy
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016*
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
TWh
RES cumulative installed capacity (GW) RES gross electricity production (TWh)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016*
GW
18 19 19 20 20 21 21 22 24
27
30
41
47 50 51 51 52
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016*
Solar
Bioenergy
Wind
Geothermal
Water
51 54
48 47
54 48 51 48
58
69
77
83
92
112
121
109 106
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016*
(*) preliminary data

3. 431 1.144
3.470
12.773
16.690
18.185 18.594 18.892 19.265
32.018 71.288
155.977
330.196
481.267
596.355
648.418
688.398
732.557
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
350.000
400.000
450.000
500.000
550.000
600.000
650.000
700.000
750.000
800.000
0
1.500
3.000
4.500
6.000
7.500
9.000
10.500
12.000
13.500
15.000
16.500
18.000
19.500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*
Installed capacity (MW)
Number
Historical PV development in Italy
By the end of 2016 more than
730,000 PV plants were installed,
for a total power of 19.3 GW
Share of renewable capacity in Italy: 2008 vs 2016
Number and capacity of PV plants in Italy
2008
2016*
In the past years, the number and capacity of PV plants grew
at a very sustained pace.
In 2008 PV capacity was about the 2% of the total
renewable capacity installed in Italy. In 2016 this share
became 37%
* 2016 data are preliminary
2%
98%
37%
63%
PV installed capacity
Other RES capacity
(Hydro, wind, bioenergy
and geothermal)

4. Breakdown of PV installations by capacity and by sectors
 91% of PV plants have size
below 20 kW, with average
capacity of 5 KW (626472
plants, 20% of overall
capacity). 98% of PV plants
are below 200 kW (676705
plants, 40% of overall
capacity)
 96% of PV plants installed in
2016 have size below 20 kW
 79% of PV plants are residential, mainly small size (about 5 kW)
 52% of PV capacity refers to the industry sector, including utility-
scale plants (average size 233 kW)
79%
14%12%
23%
6%
52%
3%
11%
Number Capacity
Residential Services
Industry Agricolture
2015 2016* Delta (2016 – 2015)
Size (kW) n° MW n° MW n° MW
1<=C<=3 228.267 627 245.408 670 17.141 43
3<C<=20 398.205 2.942 423.572 3.107 25.367 165
20<C<=200 50.233 3.932 51.786 4.033 1.553 101
200<C<=1.000 10.566 7.266 10.659 7.301 93 35
1.000<C<=5.000 945 2.319 949 2.327 4 8
C>5.000 182 1.807 183 1.827 1 20
Total 688.398 18.892 732.557 19.265 44.159 373
* 2016 data are preliminary

5. PV regional distribution in Italy
 The PV plants are spread all over the country.
 North: 54% of installations, 44% of capacity; average size 22 kW
 Centre: 18% of installations, 19% of capacity; average size 29 kW
 South: 28% of installations, 37% of capacity; average size 36 kW
PV installation regional distribution PV capacity regional distribution

6. 100%
21%
79%
PV generation
Other RES generation
(Hydro, wind, bioenergy and
geothermal)
PV production in the generation mix profile
 In 2016 electricity generation by PV plants in Italy
was equal to 22.4 TWh, lower than the previous
year (-2,6%)
 The full load hours mainly depend on climate
factors (irradiation, temperature)
Share of renewable generation in Italy: 2008 vs 2016*
PV generation in Italy (GWh)
2008
2016*
 In 2008 PV generation was about 0.3% of total renewable
generation in Italy. In 2016 this share became 21.1%
* Preliminary data
677
1.906
10.796
18.862
21.589 22.306 22.942 22.354
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*
Full load hours 1326 1313 1241 1211 1225 1124

7. Share of PV production
In 2016 generation from PV plants covered 21% of RES generation, the 8% of gross generation, the 7% of electricity
demand.
PV share on electricity generation and demand
* Preliminary data
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*
Gross electricity generation (TWh) 302 303 299 290 283 280 283
Natural gas 51% 48% 43% 38% 33% 40% 41%
RES 25% 27% 31% 39% 43% 39% 37%
Hydro 17% 15% 14% 18% 21% 16% 14%
PV 1% 4% 6% 7% 8% 8% 8%
Bioenergy 3% 4% 4% 6% 7% 7% 7%
Wind 3% 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% 6%
Geothermal 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Demand (TWh) 330 335 328 319 311 317 318
PV 1% 3% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7%

8. PV self-consumptions (all PV plants)
 57% of net energy production is related to plants with self-consumption.
 PV self-consumption amounts to 4.3 TWh in 2015 (33% of net generation produced by plants with self-
consumption and 19% of total net generation)
 Almost all domestic plants have a self-consumption quota. These plants are usually small in size (C<=20 kW)
PV generation and self-consumption by size and sector (analysis on all plants in 2015)
33%
19%
4.017 4.298
8.849
5.423
3.820
2.981
4.036
1.976
1.277 1.394 1.152
448
C<=20 20<C<=200 200<C<=1.000 C>1.000
32% 33%
32%
47%
13%
29%
8%
23%
2.469 2.989
12.269
4.860
1.229
2.890
5.653
3.040
350
883
1.859
1.178
Agricolture Residential Industry Services
14%
28%
30% 31%
15%
33%
24%
39%
22.588
12.812
4.270
Net generation, total PV (GWh)
Net generation, PV with self
consumption (GWh)
Self-consumption (GWh)
% Self-consumption /
Net generation, PV with s-c.
% Self-consumption /
Net generation, total PV

9. PV self-consumptions (PV plants with net billing)
 Most PV plants with self consumption are supported by net billing, a kind of net metering where different rates
are used to value the excess energy fed into the grid and energy received from the grid
 Industry sector is the one with the highest self-consumption quota on net generation
 Residential sector is the one with the highest self-consumption quota on consumption
N: 8.389 (tot 17.914) - 47%
MW: 318 (tot 2.056)
N: 44.656 (tot 85.441) - 52%
MW: 1.114 (tot 4.389)
N: 435.193 (tot 542.903) - 80%
MW: 2.001 (tot 2.640)
N: 14.028 (tot 42.140) – 33%
MW: 829 (tot 9.807)
Generation Self consumption Consumption
42%
31%
48%
58%
25%
34%
19%
14%
Agricolture Residential Service Industry
Self consumption quota on generation
Self consumption quota on cosumption
GWh
PV generation and self-consumption by sector in net billing scheme (analysis on net billing plants in 2015)

10. Cost of incentives: PV and other sources
Self consumption quota by sector
6,7
2,4
1,9 1,9
1,1 0,9 0,6
0,3 0,2
Solar PV Wind Hydroelectric Biogas Biomass and
Waste
Bioliquids Other
sources
District
heating
Geothermal
Net Billing
MD 7/6/2012 & 6/23/2016
Simpl. Purchase
CIP6
GC Withdrawal
FiT
FIP (former GC)
E.A. PV
Incentive cost in 2016 (bn €)
 Total cost: 15.9 € bn
 Revenue: 1.5 € bn
 Burden on consumers:
14.4 € bn
 In 2016 the cost for support and purchase of RES electricity was 15.9 billion euros. The largest contribution is related to PV plants,
with a cost of 6.7 € bn, mainly related to the Energy Account (6.0 € bn).
 In 2016 the revenues arising the sales of supported electricity were around 1.5 € bn, thus determining a burden for incentives of 14.4
bn €. The burden is expected to decrease over time (most plants will finish the period of incentive in the next decade)

11. GHG saving by PV
 Each MWh produced by PV avoids 532 kg CO2 related to the substituted (marginal) fossil fuel (mainly CCGT)
 In 2014, PV production avoided 11.9 MtCO2 corresponding to 22% of the GHG savings by RES
Substituted fossil fuel mix by PV Avoided GHG emissions by RES-E [MtCO2]
15%
70%
14% 1%
COAL
CCGT
OIL
TG
GHG saving emission factor [kgCO2eq/MWh]
502 528 493 493 485 536 532
0,9
4,7
9,0 10,2 11,9
31,9
36,3
44,2
47,9
55,1
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
PV Other RES

12.  GSE provides and develops methodologies for the assessment of economic and employment impacts of RES deployment and energy
efficiency promotion
 The contribution of RES to the Italian economy is calculated with the standard demand driven Input Output model, suitably integrated
and matched with the statistical and technical-economic data collected and analyzed by the GSE
 The following graphs show results regarding RES-E sector in 2016 in terms of investments, O&M costs and related temporary and
permanent jobs (FTE). In 2016 PV was the sector with the highest investments in new plants and with the highest expenditure in
O&M
The assessment of economic and employment impacts
12
Investments and O&M costs in 2016 [m €]
602
473
319
76
231
5
949
265
554 497
621 647
53
Investiments in new plants
O&M costs
4.264
4.558
3.312
782
2.316
11.807
3.598
7.432
6.438
3.458
2.062
697
Temporary (direct + indirect) jobs
Permanent (direct + indirect) jobs
Temporary and permanent employment impacts in 2016
(Full Time Equivalent)

13. PV maintenance
PV maintenance interventions breakdown
 Until today 90% of PV maintenance interventions concern PV component replacement (inverter, modules, electrical equipment)
 In February 2017, GSE published the procedures for maintenance and upgrading of PV plants supported by Energy Account in order to:
- simplify administrative practices for operators dealing with the Energy Account constraints
- preserve and optimize PV generation performance
- disseminate good practices
 GSE is investigating the potential of behavioral economics for the increase of PV production performance
3%
2%
5%
37%
15%
32%
6%
90%
PLANT REPOSITIONING
CONNECTION MODIFICATION
OTHER INTERVENTIONS (LAYOUT
ETC)
INVERTER REPLACEMENT
PV MODULE REPLACEMENT
ENERGY METER REPLACEMENT
OTHER REPLACEMENT (ELECTRICAL
EQUIPMENT ETC.)
Evolution of installed storage systems
111
391
2015 2016
Other
Lithium ion
Lead/Acid

14. New PV installation without FIT
Preliminary data on 2016 show that PV capacity increased by 373 MW of which:
 20 MW were supported by Energy account
 353 MW were not supported by Energy account, but mainly under «net billing» scheme
Current trend of PV installations in the post FIT era
* Preliminary data
318 291
353
91
7
20
409
298
373
2014 2015 2016*
MW
Not supported by Energy Account Supported by Energy Account

15. PV role in 2030 energy scenario
Evolution of PV capacity (GW) and possible future trends
Italy is defining 2030 renewable energy targets. PV may play a strategic role in 2030 energy scenario, depending on the
adopted assumptions (price of electricity and CO2, ecc.) and policies.
37
24
0,4 1,1
3,5
12,8
16,7
18,2 18,6 18,9 19,3
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
PV most ambitious scenario
PV current trend
PV capacity evolution
7% of
energy
demand
14% of
energy
demand
8% of
energy
demand
GW
Business as usual scenario:
Current plants + net billing (320
MW per year)

16. Thank you for your attention