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Research by Simeon Arnaudov
PhD candidate at Seoul National University
Solar Power Project (45 MW):
Bulgarian Electricity Market Study
TEMEP, Seoul National University, Republic of Korea
31.05.2013
463.517 International energy expert policy program
by professor Jong Dong Lee
Table of content
1. Introduction
2. Background
2.1 Energy market structure
2.2. Renewable energy sector
3. Benchmarking
3.1. Solar capacity per citizen in the European Union [W/capita]
3.2. Solar capacity in the European Union [MW]
4. Project scheme
4.1. Investment in a glance
4.2. Observation
4.3. Geographical location/ Solar radiation map/ Power GRID map
4.4. Project implication
5. Further research
6. References
1. Introduction
a) Renewable energy - is energy that comes from resources which are continually replenished
such as sunlight, wind, rain, tides, waves and geothermal heat [8]
b) Importance of renewable energy - Climate change and global warming concerns, covered
with high oil prices, and increasing government subsidies, are driving increasing renewable
energy legislation, incentives and commercialization. [10]
c) Economic growth through increasing usage of RES (in sense of Social impact)
d) International regulation about RES - European 20/20 regulation, which mean increasing
to at least 20% of using renewable energy and reducing energy consumption with 20% (energy
efficiency).
e) Case study goals:
 Our team is planning to study Private Korean investment in Solar Power Plant in Bulgaria, with aim
to investigate successful and unsuccessful practices;
 Power plant capacity is 20MW + 25MW
2. Background
Renewable Energy Power plants
(under Feed-in Tariffs)
Coal Independent
Power Producers
State-owned Energy Suppliers
(nuclear, coal, gas)
NEK: single buyer; aggregator;
large hydropower generator;
supplier of last resort &
transmission company
System operator
(owned by NEK):
organize the
balancing model
High-voltage
customers
Energo Pro
EVN
CEZ
Generation Transmission Distribution
Co-generation
supplier
Purchased and paid for by NEK under Energy Law
Purchased and paid for by NEK under Energy Law
Purchased and paid for by NEK under PPAs
Purchased and paid for by NEK under Energy Law
Distribution entities collect on behalf of NEK
Regulatedpricesthroughannualtarifforders
15%
15%
~58%
~12%
1.2. Energy market structure [6]:
a) Energy market organization
b) Main power plants in Bulgaria [10]
15% Renewable energy
12% Long term contracted agreement TPP
35% Nuclear power plant
23% Thermal power plant
15% Steam thermal power plant
15%
15% 12%
35%
23%
c) Price of electricity [USD $/MWh] (Source: ministry of energy, economic and tourism)
The price of electricity in the market with different sources of electricity by various PA is formed by the combination of
various contracts, operation costs and allowances for green energy, while electricity price has strong social significance.
According to the latest World Bank report on Bulgarian energy market (May 2013), Bulgarian citizens are energy poor. It is
mean the sitizens are spending more than 10% of their income buying energy services (electricity supply; others) [7].
Price of electricity is summation of [6]:
 power supply (base price)
 power distribution price
 supplements price (for usage of green energy)
HPP Hydro power plant
Solar Photovoltaic power plant
NPP Nuclear power plant
CGPP Co-Generation power plant
TPP Thermal power plant
Small HPP Small Hydro power plant
2.3. Renewable sector
a) Bulgarian renewable energy market. On picture 1 is shown total capacity of renewable
energy by source [7]
2. Background
9010 MW
3400 MW Hydro power plant
1040 MW Photovoltaic power plant
850 MW Wind power plant
9010 MW Other fossil power plant
2.2. Renewable sector. Highlights:
a) Driving force of renewable energy sector development is long term PPA (power purchase
agreement) and Feed-in Tariffs (FiT);
b) Non-government organization (NGO) - Cluster organization represent private interest in front
government;
c) International Events - renewable energy (RE) growth create opportunity Bulgaria to dominate
ins local Renewable market, example is Solar South-East Europe on 29-31 May 2013;
d) Natural resources for RES power plant: Sun; Wind; Water; BIO is negligible (total capacity of
29MW). Geographic location of RE power plant is very important.
e) Renewable energy affect price of energy price. Higher energy price harm social interest.
3400 MW
1040 MW
850 MW
3. Benchmarking
Electric power per
capita [ Watt ]
Total population electricity consumption [ MW·h/yr ] x 1 000 000
=
365.25 x 24 x (population)
3.1. Solar capacity per citizen in the European Union [W/capita] Source [10]
3.2. Solar capacity in the European Union [MW] Source [10]
4. Project scheme
Company name: RES technology ASM-BG Investicii
Geographical location Zlataritsa village,
V. Turnovo
Samovodene village,
V. Turnovo
Date issue of license 2009.12.14 2010.01.18
Date of generating energy N/A N/A
Project consultant Kim & Chang, Korea Kim & Chang, Korea
Constructor LG CNS, Korea LG CNS, Korea
Technology Photovoltaic panel Photovoltaic panel
Power plant capacity 20 MW/h 25 MW/h
Off-taker National Electric Company National Electric Company
Electricity distributor EVN EVN
Investment € 70 million € 80 million
4.1. Investment in a glance
ROI 9% per year 9% per year
4.2. Observation
a) Risk allocation – financing is done with 100% solo Korean participation. There is
no risk allocation;
b) Technology – there is not enough information for used technology
c) Long term PPA – 20 years, with contracted price of [$324 / MWh] – very flat
annual income;
d) Maintain and operation – there is no information about M&O
e) Technology – not enough information for the type of used photovoltaic power
panels;
f) Both power plants are situated in very close geographical location – this increased
probability of less generated power energy from bad weather conditions in same
time;
g) Aerography (weather) forecast affect similarly both photovoltaic power plants
4. Project scheme
4. Project scheme
4.3. Geographical location/ Solar radiation map/ Power GRID map [11][12]
4.4. Project implication
a) Reduce O&M cost – even this cost is significantly low compare with investment cost of
the project, there are possibilities to improve operating and management cost;
b) Improve solar power panel stationary rotating technology – The power plant is
situated in four seasons geographical area. Respectively solar radiation is falling in
different angle according to different seasons;
 Solar radiation has different power during 4 seasons.
 According to Solar map: 1110 < Radiation< 1420 kWh/sq. m. [13]
 Discover the [solar, hours/year]. For example in Plovdiv area [2260 solar h/y] [13]
 After implementing solar panel rotating technology re-calculate solar radiation power;
sun light angle; [13]
4. Project scheme
Equator
Sun lightSun light
Sun light
a) Spot successful and unsuccessful practices of Korean Solar investment
b) Answer the question: What have to be improved if investment is going to be
develop today?
c) Solar power plant – financial (OM), technology, government regulation;
d) Offshore renewable farms;
e) Technology: investigated to current used photovoltaic technology;
f) Study government regulation in Renewable sources : energy price as social
impact; RES price differentiation.;
g) Recalculate the RoI (return of investment) : “RES technology”; “ASM - BG
investicii”;
h) Research objectives of Bulgaria to convert to Green Economy. In sense of
increasing number of public electrical transport with expanding Public Electrical
Network in big cities as Sofia, Plovdiv, Varna, Stara Zagora. Expected results is to
decrease carbon oxide, decrease number of gasoline stroke engine vehicles and
increase consumption of renewable energy;
5. Further research
1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_electricity_consumption
2. http://tso.bg/uploads/image/2013/Karta_nova_03_2012_BG.jpg
3. http://www.dnevnik.bg/video/2013/05/28/2069952_otlaganeto_na_reformata_v_energetikata_struva_okolo_1/
4. http://www.capital.bg/politika_i_ikonomika/bulgaria/2013/04/08/2037825_top_20_na_elektroenergiinite_moshtnosti_v_bulgariia/
5. http://www.capital.bg/biznes/kompanii/2013/04/18/2044541_koi_kolko_tok_proizvejda/
6. http://kadebg.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/как-се-изчислява-цена-на-тока.pdf
7. http://www.mi.government.bg/files/useruploads/files/powersectorrapidassessment__may27_final.pdf
8. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy
9. United Nations Environment Programme Global Trends in Sustainable Energy Investment 2007: Analysis of Trends and Issues in the Financing
of Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency in OECD and Developing Countries
10. Ministry of energy, economy and tourism, Republic of bulgaria www.mi.government.bg
11. www.tso.bg
12. GeoModel Solar pro
13. http://www.shtrakov.net/RET/Lect_03.pdf
6. References
End!

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Solar Power Project (45 MW): Bulgarian Electricity Market Study

  • 1. Research by Simeon Arnaudov PhD candidate at Seoul National University Solar Power Project (45 MW): Bulgarian Electricity Market Study TEMEP, Seoul National University, Republic of Korea 31.05.2013 463.517 International energy expert policy program by professor Jong Dong Lee
  • 2. Table of content 1. Introduction 2. Background 2.1 Energy market structure 2.2. Renewable energy sector 3. Benchmarking 3.1. Solar capacity per citizen in the European Union [W/capita] 3.2. Solar capacity in the European Union [MW] 4. Project scheme 4.1. Investment in a glance 4.2. Observation 4.3. Geographical location/ Solar radiation map/ Power GRID map 4.4. Project implication 5. Further research 6. References
  • 3. 1. Introduction a) Renewable energy - is energy that comes from resources which are continually replenished such as sunlight, wind, rain, tides, waves and geothermal heat [8] b) Importance of renewable energy - Climate change and global warming concerns, covered with high oil prices, and increasing government subsidies, are driving increasing renewable energy legislation, incentives and commercialization. [10] c) Economic growth through increasing usage of RES (in sense of Social impact) d) International regulation about RES - European 20/20 regulation, which mean increasing to at least 20% of using renewable energy and reducing energy consumption with 20% (energy efficiency). e) Case study goals:  Our team is planning to study Private Korean investment in Solar Power Plant in Bulgaria, with aim to investigate successful and unsuccessful practices;  Power plant capacity is 20MW + 25MW
  • 4. 2. Background Renewable Energy Power plants (under Feed-in Tariffs) Coal Independent Power Producers State-owned Energy Suppliers (nuclear, coal, gas) NEK: single buyer; aggregator; large hydropower generator; supplier of last resort & transmission company System operator (owned by NEK): organize the balancing model High-voltage customers Energo Pro EVN CEZ Generation Transmission Distribution Co-generation supplier Purchased and paid for by NEK under Energy Law Purchased and paid for by NEK under Energy Law Purchased and paid for by NEK under PPAs Purchased and paid for by NEK under Energy Law Distribution entities collect on behalf of NEK Regulatedpricesthroughannualtarifforders 15% 15% ~58% ~12% 1.2. Energy market structure [6]: a) Energy market organization
  • 5. b) Main power plants in Bulgaria [10] 15% Renewable energy 12% Long term contracted agreement TPP 35% Nuclear power plant 23% Thermal power plant 15% Steam thermal power plant 15% 15% 12% 35% 23%
  • 6. c) Price of electricity [USD $/MWh] (Source: ministry of energy, economic and tourism) The price of electricity in the market with different sources of electricity by various PA is formed by the combination of various contracts, operation costs and allowances for green energy, while electricity price has strong social significance. According to the latest World Bank report on Bulgarian energy market (May 2013), Bulgarian citizens are energy poor. It is mean the sitizens are spending more than 10% of their income buying energy services (electricity supply; others) [7]. Price of electricity is summation of [6]:  power supply (base price)  power distribution price  supplements price (for usage of green energy) HPP Hydro power plant Solar Photovoltaic power plant NPP Nuclear power plant CGPP Co-Generation power plant TPP Thermal power plant Small HPP Small Hydro power plant
  • 7. 2.3. Renewable sector a) Bulgarian renewable energy market. On picture 1 is shown total capacity of renewable energy by source [7] 2. Background 9010 MW 3400 MW Hydro power plant 1040 MW Photovoltaic power plant 850 MW Wind power plant 9010 MW Other fossil power plant 2.2. Renewable sector. Highlights: a) Driving force of renewable energy sector development is long term PPA (power purchase agreement) and Feed-in Tariffs (FiT); b) Non-government organization (NGO) - Cluster organization represent private interest in front government; c) International Events - renewable energy (RE) growth create opportunity Bulgaria to dominate ins local Renewable market, example is Solar South-East Europe on 29-31 May 2013; d) Natural resources for RES power plant: Sun; Wind; Water; BIO is negligible (total capacity of 29MW). Geographic location of RE power plant is very important. e) Renewable energy affect price of energy price. Higher energy price harm social interest. 3400 MW 1040 MW 850 MW
  • 8. 3. Benchmarking Electric power per capita [ Watt ] Total population electricity consumption [ MW·h/yr ] x 1 000 000 = 365.25 x 24 x (population) 3.1. Solar capacity per citizen in the European Union [W/capita] Source [10]
  • 9. 3.2. Solar capacity in the European Union [MW] Source [10]
  • 10. 4. Project scheme Company name: RES technology ASM-BG Investicii Geographical location Zlataritsa village, V. Turnovo Samovodene village, V. Turnovo Date issue of license 2009.12.14 2010.01.18 Date of generating energy N/A N/A Project consultant Kim & Chang, Korea Kim & Chang, Korea Constructor LG CNS, Korea LG CNS, Korea Technology Photovoltaic panel Photovoltaic panel Power plant capacity 20 MW/h 25 MW/h Off-taker National Electric Company National Electric Company Electricity distributor EVN EVN Investment € 70 million € 80 million 4.1. Investment in a glance ROI 9% per year 9% per year
  • 11. 4.2. Observation a) Risk allocation – financing is done with 100% solo Korean participation. There is no risk allocation; b) Technology – there is not enough information for used technology c) Long term PPA – 20 years, with contracted price of [$324 / MWh] – very flat annual income; d) Maintain and operation – there is no information about M&O e) Technology – not enough information for the type of used photovoltaic power panels; f) Both power plants are situated in very close geographical location – this increased probability of less generated power energy from bad weather conditions in same time; g) Aerography (weather) forecast affect similarly both photovoltaic power plants 4. Project scheme
  • 12. 4. Project scheme 4.3. Geographical location/ Solar radiation map/ Power GRID map [11][12]
  • 13. 4.4. Project implication a) Reduce O&M cost – even this cost is significantly low compare with investment cost of the project, there are possibilities to improve operating and management cost; b) Improve solar power panel stationary rotating technology – The power plant is situated in four seasons geographical area. Respectively solar radiation is falling in different angle according to different seasons;  Solar radiation has different power during 4 seasons.  According to Solar map: 1110 < Radiation< 1420 kWh/sq. m. [13]  Discover the [solar, hours/year]. For example in Plovdiv area [2260 solar h/y] [13]  After implementing solar panel rotating technology re-calculate solar radiation power; sun light angle; [13] 4. Project scheme Equator Sun lightSun light Sun light
  • 14. a) Spot successful and unsuccessful practices of Korean Solar investment b) Answer the question: What have to be improved if investment is going to be develop today? c) Solar power plant – financial (OM), technology, government regulation; d) Offshore renewable farms; e) Technology: investigated to current used photovoltaic technology; f) Study government regulation in Renewable sources : energy price as social impact; RES price differentiation.; g) Recalculate the RoI (return of investment) : “RES technology”; “ASM - BG investicii”; h) Research objectives of Bulgaria to convert to Green Economy. In sense of increasing number of public electrical transport with expanding Public Electrical Network in big cities as Sofia, Plovdiv, Varna, Stara Zagora. Expected results is to decrease carbon oxide, decrease number of gasoline stroke engine vehicles and increase consumption of renewable energy; 5. Further research
  • 15. 1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_electricity_consumption 2. http://tso.bg/uploads/image/2013/Karta_nova_03_2012_BG.jpg 3. http://www.dnevnik.bg/video/2013/05/28/2069952_otlaganeto_na_reformata_v_energetikata_struva_okolo_1/ 4. http://www.capital.bg/politika_i_ikonomika/bulgaria/2013/04/08/2037825_top_20_na_elektroenergiinite_moshtnosti_v_bulgariia/ 5. http://www.capital.bg/biznes/kompanii/2013/04/18/2044541_koi_kolko_tok_proizvejda/ 6. http://kadebg.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/как-се-изчислява-цена-на-тока.pdf 7. http://www.mi.government.bg/files/useruploads/files/powersectorrapidassessment__may27_final.pdf 8. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy 9. United Nations Environment Programme Global Trends in Sustainable Energy Investment 2007: Analysis of Trends and Issues in the Financing of Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency in OECD and Developing Countries 10. Ministry of energy, economy and tourism, Republic of bulgaria www.mi.government.bg 11. www.tso.bg 12. GeoModel Solar pro 13. http://www.shtrakov.net/RET/Lect_03.pdf 6. References
  • 16. End!

Editor's Notes

  1. Държавната комисия за енергийно и водно регулиране (ДКЕВР) ще фиксира тарифите, по които новите ВЕИ централи ще продават ток по дългосрочни договори, толкова пъти в годината, колкото сметне за нужно, става ясно от поправките. Условието е инвестиционните разходи, които са водещи в ценообразуването, да са се променили с повече от 10% спрямо предишното ценово решение. По сегашните правила цените се ревизират, обикновено надолу, само веднъж годишно до 30 юни. Засега обаче оборудването поевтинява много по-бързо. От януари 2011 до началото на тази година цените на фотоволтаичните модули например са се понижили с над 40%, показва информация на специализираното издание Photon. Така редица инвеститори получават много по-голяма възвращаемост от регламентираните 9%. В момента слънчева централа над 200 киловата продава ток по 485.60 лева на мегаватчас без ДДС.http://www.capital.bg/politika_i_ikonomika/2012/05/30/1836963_svobodno_padane_na_zelenite_tarifi/
  2. http://www.capital.bg/politika_i_ikonomika/bulgaria/2012/06/07/1842369_ubiistvoto_na_slunchevite_pokrivi/
  3. Производителите на електроенергия от възобновяеми източници (ВЕИ) я продават по дългосрочни договори по фиксирани за целия период цени. Токът от фотоволтаиците се продава по 20-годишни контракти. В момента централите над 200 киловата продават на доставчиците на ток срещу 485 лв. на мегаватчас. За сравнение - енергията от АЕЦ &quot;Козлодуй се продава на регулирания пазар срещу 42 лв. на мегаватчас.http://www.capital.bg/biznes/kompanii/2012/05/31/1837279_nov_kitaisko-italianski_solaren_park_do_plovdiv/