Presentation to west of england policy group on megatrends turnover report 30 january [236920]

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Job turnover and separation rates have slowed down based on evidence from the UK and other OECD countries. There are several potential explanations for this trend, including the impact of the recession, changes in workforce demographics, more effective recruitment practices, and employees being less dissatisfied with their current roles. The implications of lower job mobility include the possibility of turnover increasing again as economies recover, organizations having to promote internal mobility and fresh thinking rather than relying on external hires, and achieving a potentially more stable workforce.

Has job turnover
slowed down?
Mark Beatson
Chief Economist, CIPD

• What does the evidence say?
• What are the potential
explanations?
• What are the implications?

Job separations, 1996-2012
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Jobseparations(%ofemployees)
Voluntary
Involuntary
Source: Office for National Statistics

Average job tenure, 2001-2011
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Averagetenure(years)
Men
Women
Labour Force Survey, UK, not seasonally adjusted, October-December quarter
Source: Office for National Statistics

Organisation-based labour turnover, 2001-2012
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Medianlabourturnover(%of
employees)
Source: CIPD Recruitment and Talent Planning surveys.

Employees looking to change jobs in the next
12 months, 2009-2013
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
%ofemployees
Source: CIPD Employee Outlook surveys.

Characteristics of employees looking to change their
job within the next 12 months, Spring 2013
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
All employees
Men
Women
Full-time
Part-time
18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55+
<6 months service
6-12 months service
1-2 years service
2-5 years service
5-10 years service
10-15 years service
15-20 years service
20+ years service
Private sector
Public sector
Voluntary sector
% of employees
Source: CIPD Employee Outlook surveys.

Average job tenure in selected OECD countries,
2006-2011
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Averagejobtenure(years)
2006
2011
Source: OECD

Median job tenure in the USA, 2002-2012
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Medianjobtenure(years)
Men
Women
Employed salary workers aged 25 and over
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

What are the potential explanations?
• The recession?
• Changes in workforce structure?
• Impact of employment regulation?
• Change within the workplace?
• More effective recruitment?
• Occupational pensions?
• Less dissatisfied employees?

Voluntary job separations and unemployment,
1996-2012
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
%
Voluntary turnover
Unemployment
Labour Force Survey, UK, not seasonally adjusted, October-December quarter.
Source: Office for National Statistics

Employment protection and average
job tenure, 2011
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
Averagejobtenure(years)
OECD employment protection indicator
UK
Greece
Ireland
Denmark
Portugal
Employment protection indicator covers individual and collective dismissals.
Source: OECD

Employee discontent and likelihood of looking to
change job within the next 12 months, Spring 2013
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
All employees
Satisfied with job
Neutral
Dissatisfied with job
Engaged
Neutral
Disengaged
Likely to lose job in next 6 months
Neutral
Unlikely to lose job in next 6 months
Easy to get another job
Neutral
Difficult to get another job
% of employees
Source: CIPD Employee Outlook survey.

What are the implications?
• Will turnover pick up again?
• A more stable workforce?
• How to promote fresh thinking?
• Internal as substitute for external mobility?

Employees looking to change jobs in the next
12 months and unfilled vacancies, 2009-2013
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Vacancies(‘000s)
lookingtochangejobinnext12
months
Looking to change jobs Vacancies
Source: CIPD Employee Outlook surveys, ONS.
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Presentation to west of england policy group on megatrends turnover report 30 january [236920]

1. Has job turnover slowed down? Mark Beatson Chief Economist, CIPD

2. • What does the evidence say? • What are the potential explanations? • What are the implications?

3. Job separations, 1996-2012 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 Jobseparations(%ofemployees) Voluntary Involuntary Source: Office for National Statistics

4. Average job tenure, 2001-2011 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Averagetenure(years) Men Women Labour Force Survey, UK, not seasonally adjusted, October-December quarter Source: Office for National Statistics

5. Organisation-based labour turnover, 2001-2012 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Medianlabourturnover(%of employees) Source: CIPD Recruitment and Talent Planning surveys.

6. Employees looking to change jobs in the next 12 months, 2009-2013 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 %ofemployees Source: CIPD Employee Outlook surveys.

7. Characteristics of employees looking to change their job within the next 12 months, Spring 2013 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 All employees Men Women Full-time Part-time 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ <6 months service 6-12 months service 1-2 years service 2-5 years service 5-10 years service 10-15 years service 15-20 years service 20+ years service Private sector Public sector Voluntary sector % of employees Source: CIPD Employee Outlook surveys.

8. Average job tenure in selected OECD countries, 2006-2011 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Averagejobtenure(years) 2006 2011 Source: OECD

9. Median job tenure in the USA, 2002-2012 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Medianjobtenure(years) Men Women Employed salary workers aged 25 and over Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

10. What are the potential explanations? • The recession? • Changes in workforce structure? • Impact of employment regulation? • Change within the workplace? • More effective recruitment? • Occupational pensions? • Less dissatisfied employees?

11. Voluntary job separations and unemployment, 1996-2012 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 % Voluntary turnover Unemployment Labour Force Survey, UK, not seasonally adjusted, October-December quarter. Source: Office for National Statistics

12. Employment protection and average job tenure, 2011 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 Averagejobtenure(years) OECD employment protection indicator UK Greece Ireland Denmark Portugal Employment protection indicator covers individual and collective dismissals. Source: OECD

13. Employee discontent and likelihood of looking to change job within the next 12 months, Spring 2013 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 All employees Satisfied with job Neutral Dissatisfied with job Engaged Neutral Disengaged Likely to lose job in next 6 months Neutral Unlikely to lose job in next 6 months Easy to get another job Neutral Difficult to get another job % of employees Source: CIPD Employee Outlook survey.

14. What are the implications? • Will turnover pick up again? • A more stable workforce? • How to promote fresh thinking? • Internal as substitute for external mobility?

15. Employees looking to change jobs in the next 12 months and unfilled vacancies, 2009-2013 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Vacancies(‘000s) lookingtochangejobinnext12 months Looking to change jobs Vacancies Source: CIPD Employee Outlook surveys, ONS. ?

16. Thank you!

Editor's Notes

Follow up previous session on 17 October on Megatrends. Following up publication on reduction in job turnover. Have a few copies of job turnover report with me – plus other report on trust published just before Xmas. Questions – now or at end
Job tenure is flipside of job turnover
Intentions – actual turnover rates lower so looks like this does not always lead to action
Age and length of service differences
Suggestion turnover goes down when labour market weak – but going down before
EPL increased post 98 – not greatly but some increase NMW and job hopping?
Expected correlation because vacancies in part depends on turnover – does this mean turnover expectations are set to increase? But age structure goes other way.

Presentation to west of england policy group on megatrends turnover report 30 january [236920]

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Editor's Notes