The document outlines trends in the New Zealand economy and job market based on a presentation by Pete Macauley. It discusses the stable global economic outlook, strong performance of the New Zealand economy with continued growth and low unemployment. Data from Seek and other sources show increasing job ads, business confidence, and skilled labor shortages across various industries. Research also found employers expecting to hire overseas and employees looking for attractive compensation and career opportunities to avoid turnover. In summary, 2014 was a positive year for New Zealand businesses and the data points to continued growth, but talent shortages may challenge attraction and retention.

1. Presented by
Pete Macauley
24 February 2015

2.  PageGroup overview
 Global economic environment
 The New Zealand economy
 The Seek perspective
 Industry trends
 Business confidence
 Unemployment rate comparison
 Migration
 Michael Page market research
 Summary
 Questions
Agenda

3. PageGroup overview
Global coverage

4. PageGroup overview
Asia Pacific coverage

5. Areas of specialisation

6. Global economic environment
Growth rate of the world economy
Source: International Monetary Fund

7. Global economic environment
Can we expect growth in 2015?
Source: ANZ Economics & Markets Research
2014 2015 Forecast Overall Outlook
World 3.3% 3.9% Grinding higher
US 2.3% 3.2% Leading the way
Euro zone 0.8% 1.3% Slowly but surely
China 7.5% 7.0% Trending Lower
Australia 3.1% 2.9% Still transitioning
New Zealand 3.1% 3.0% Slowing down slightly

8. ''When the Canterbury rebuild ends people will be quite surprised by the size of the downturn.”
Dominic Stephens – Chief economist, Westpac
''The New Zealand economy has had an excellent run and growth is moderating but that's not a bad thing. We're not an 'AsianTiger' and
we can't sustain 4 percent growth. We should be happy with 3 percent or even 2.5 percent.'‘
Sharon Zollner - Senior Economist, ANZ Bank
“The economy is trucking along very nicely.”
Stephen Toplis - Head of Research, Bank of New Zealand
“We are in the unusual but encouraging situation where we have solid economic growth, more employment and higher wages, but few
pressures on inflation.”
Bill English - Finance Minister
“Growth is expected to remain at or above trend through 2016, with unemployment continuing to decline.”
Graeme Wheeler – Governor, Reserve Bank of New Zealand,
“We expect 2015 to be a year of moderate gains as the global economy grinds up a gear.”
Stewart Brentnall - Chief Investment Officer, ANZ Bank
“New Zealand had one of the fastest-growing economies in the OECD in 2014, supporting its ‘rock star’ reputation.”
Paul Bloxham - Chief Economist, HSBC
The New Zealand economy
The experts’ opinions

9. New Zealand economy
Gross domestic product
Source: www.tradingeconomics.com

10. New Zealand economy
Business confidence
New Zealand business confidence rose
to its highest level in almost 20 years in
February
According to the ANZ Business Outlook survey – NZH Friday
Feb 28, 2014

11. New Zealand economy
Unemployment rate
Source: www.ieconomics.com

12. New Zealand economy
Skilled vacancies index
Source: www.dol.govt.nz

13. The Seek perspective
Job ads
 Seek New Zealand tracked a 10% YOY increase in advertised roles in 2014
 More than 275,000 jobs online, an increase of more than 20,000
 The highest number of ads were in ICT, which had almost twice as many listings as the
second most-popular job family
 Areas that tracked the highest growth included Southland (+32%), Marlborough (+29%),
Tasman (+17%), Auckland (+13%) and Bay of Plenty (+12%).

14. The Seek perspective
Job index by region
Source: Seek

15. The Seek perspective
Skilled job index – sales
Source: Seek

16. The Seek perspective
Skilled job index – finance
Source: Seek

17. The Seek perspective
Skilled job index – marketing
Source: Seek

18. The Seek perspective
Skilled job index – construction
Source: Seek

19. The Seek perspective
Skilled job index – procurement and supply chain
Source: Seek

20. Business confidence
Source: www.ieconomics.com

21. Unemployment rate comparison
Source: ABS

22. Migration

23. Migration
Arrivals
 Highest ever net gain of migrants
 Migrant arrivals (gross) reached a new record high
 16% increase YOY
 Australia, China and India leading migration to NZ
 Kiwis coming home

24. Migration
Departures
 Fall in migrant departures
 Migrant departures to Australia were the lowset since 2004
 Net loss of 5,300 people to Australia
• 23,500 in 2013
• 39,300 in 2012
 Smallest net loss since 1994

25. Michael Page market research
Salary and remuneration
Average percentage salary
increase over the next 12 months
Employee salary
expectations for job change

26. Michael Page market research
Attraction and retention
Most popular tools for
attraction and retention
What jobseekers are looking for in their
next role

27. Michael Page market research
Staff turnover
Employer expectations for staff
turnover in the next 12 months
Employee turnover in the
next 12 months

28. Michael Page market research
Employee activity
Interview attended in the last 12 months

29. Michael Page market research
Recruitment activity
Experience level expected to be
in highest demand
Top factor that jobseekers are
looking for in their next role (by age)

30. Michael Page market research
Recruitment activity
Plans to hire overseas workers
within the next 12 months
Expectation of local talent leaving
for overseas opportunities

31. Summary
 2014 was another strong year for the economy
 The data is pointing towards another positive year for NZ business
 Employers more aware of the talent shortage and subsequent attraction and retention
challenges
 Employees are expecting more
 Staff turnover is set to rise – again
 Australia’s challenges are NZ’s opportunities
 Generate the return of NZ’s attractiveness – TODAY!

32. Thank you
Questions