Presentation paolo manasse
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This document discusses the uneven recovery from the Eurozone crisis across countries and identifies potential causes. It notes that unlike the US, the Eurozone has not recovered from the crisis uniformly due to heterogeneity between countries. Demand shocks like fiscal austerity imposed by international lenders and credit crunches, as well as supply factors like wage and price rigidities have contributed. The EU's institutions are described as "upside down" with no effective mechanisms for fiscal stabilization, debt restructuring, or insurance against economic shocks. Reforms are proposed including reducing market power, improving productivity, restructuring debt mechanisms, and establishing an EU budget for stabilization.
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Watkins Unesco Future Forum
The document discusses the impact of the global financial crisis on progress toward achieving the Millennium Development Goals. It finds that while some goals saw early progress, most countries are now off track. The financial crisis threatens to slow or reverse gains by reducing economic growth, tax revenues, remittances, trade, and foreign aid. It could push tens of millions more into poverty and negatively impact health, education, and other development indicators. Responses are needed, including increased foreign aid, fiscal stimulus in developing countries, and protecting social spending.
Ec 111 week 5 b
This document discusses the UK's policy response to the recent recession, which included reducing interest rates and quantitative easing. It also discusses international regulations like Basel III that increased capital ratio requirements for banks. The UK saw smaller employment declines than GDP declines during the recession due to wage moderation and employer financial stability. Ongoing issues discussed include the Eurozone debt crisis, financial sector regulation, and the road to economic recovery.
ECB and legitimacy attack
The document discusses two crises that challenged the legitimacy of the European Central Bank as a non-majoritarian institution: the global financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis. During the financial crisis, the ECB's legitimacy declined despite successfully controlling inflation. The sovereign debt crisis further threatened the ECB's legitimacy by raising questions about its autonomy. The ECB responded by advocating for an economic government and new policy tools at the European level to maintain the integrity of the eurozone.
R42377
The Eurozone crisis began in 2009 as a debt crisis in Greece and has evolved into a broader economic and political crisis. The Eurozone faces high debt levels, weaknesses in banking systems, economic recession and unemployment, and trade imbalances. Disagreements among European leaders over crisis responses have exacerbated market anxiety. Recent developments include a Greek debt restructuring, new bailout packages, and elections empowering leaders critical of austerity, raising questions about the Eurozone's future.
Return of the Recession
This presentation considers the possibility of a second recession in the face of the ongoing European Debt Crisis, misguided attempts to address the crisis through austerity and struggling world economies. It also reflects on the impact of the probable break-up of EU’s currency union, measures to avert the scenario and vulnerable positions of the economies of the USA, China and India to more trouble in the Euro-zone.
The doomsday scenario has been summarized by Martin Wolf of Financial Times (May 17, 2012):
“The mechanisms at work would be powerful: bank runs; the imposition of (illegal) exchange controls; legal uncertainties; asset price collapses; unpredictable shifts in balance sheets; freezing of the financial system; disruption of central banking; collapse in spending and trade; and enormous shifts in the exchange rates of new currencies.
.
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Ending stagnation: How to boost prosperity across Scotland
A toxic combination of 15 years of low growth, and four decades of high inequality, has left Britain poorer and falling behind its peers. Productivity growth is weak and public investment is low, while wages today are no higher than they were before the financial crisis. Britain needs a new economic strategy to lift itself out of stagnation.
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Presentation paolo manasse
- 1. Paolo Manasse University of Bologna, Italy Athens, Biennale, 12 October 2013 with Isabella Rota Baldini, forthcoming on CEPR Policy Insight Discussion Paper and Voxeu.org
- 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. The Eurozone, unlike the US, is not recovering from the crisis (persistence) Some countries are more vulnerable than others (heterogeneity): Why? «Demand shocks» - Fiscal austerity (the Troika) - Credit crunch (Sovereign default) «Supply Factors»: - Wage and Price rigidities «EU Institutions»: Europe’s «upside down» What should be done?
- 4. Cumulative growth in GDP pc 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 -0.02 -0.04 -0.06 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Cumulative growth in GDP pc Figure 3.2: More Divergence in USA Figure 3.1: Less Convergence in Eurozone 0.08 0.035 0.03 0.025 0.02 0.015 0.01 0.005 0 -0.005 10 Eurozone 11 11.5 Initial per capita GDP Initial per capita GDP 2007-2000 10.5 2000-2007 2012-2007 USA 2007-2012 12
- 7. Figure 6.1: Divergence of unemployment in Eurozone Figure 6.2: Divergence of unemployment in US 10 5 0 -5 0 5 10 15 Ave Unempl. 2000-08 Eurozone 20 5 4 3 2012-2008 15 Cumulative increase in unemployment Cumulative increase in unemployment 2012-2008 20 2 1 0 -1 0 USA 2 4 6 Ave Unempl. 2000-08 8
- 8. 0.15 0.1 0.05 2008-12 Cumulative pc GDP Growth Figure 5: TFP and crisis in the Eurozone 0 -0.05 -0.1 -0.15 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 cumulative TFP growth 2000-08 0.4
- 10. Cumulated change in pc GDP 09-12 Figure 10: Fiscal Adjustment and pc GDP in Eurozone 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -2 0 2 4 6 Cumulated Change in the Budget/GDP 2009-12 8
- 11. Table 1: Net contributions to the EU budget Net contribution (€ % GDP Millions) Belgium -1369 -0,36 Bulgaria 725 1,94 Czech Republic 1455 1,01 Denmark -836 -0,34 Germany -9002 -0,34 Estonia 350 2,31 Ireland 383 0,31 Greece 4622 2,22 Spain 2994 0,29 France -6405 -0,31 Italy -5933 -0,38 Cyprus 6,8 0,04 Latvia 731 3,62 Lithuania 1368 4,63 Luxembourg -75 -0,24 Hungary 4418 4,67 Malta 67 1,15 The Netherlands -2213 -0,36 Austria -805 -0,27 Poland 10975 3,10 Portugal 2983 1,81 Romania 1451 1,08 Slovenia 490 1,40 Slovak Republic 1160 1,71 Finland -652 -0,34 Sweden -1325 -0,33 UK -5565 -0,32 Source: Eu commission, 2011 data Country
- 14. No Budget for Stabilization against aggregate shocks/ No Redistribution-insurance Fiscal Policy at country level + ineffective contraints (GSP, fiscal compact) Bail-out system: costly and ineffective (ex-post) No Debt restructuring mechanism (Threat of Exit)
- 15. Each Country: Fix Supply Side: Restore convergence and resilience - reduce market power of firms and unions, banks (supervision /regulation); improve productivity growth Fix Demand Side: - Budget Deficit (Corruption, Burocracy, Political Fragmentation and Electoral Rules, Fiscal Rules)
- 16. EU architecture EU Budget for Stabilization/Insurance (e.g.backed by VAT) Fiscal Rules at country level (No Troika, please) + No bail out commitment Debt restructuring mechanism Difficult! But alternative is Euro disintegration: risks of widespread insolvencies, competitive devaluations, restrictions on movements of goods, services, people