The document discusses the impact of the global financial crisis on progress toward achieving the Millennium Development Goals. It finds that while some goals saw early progress, most countries are now off track. The financial crisis threatens to slow or reverse gains by reducing economic growth, tax revenues, remittances, trade, and foreign aid. It could push tens of millions more into poverty and negatively impact health, education, and other development indicators. Responses are needed, including increased foreign aid, fiscal stimulus in developing countries, and protecting social spending.

1. The Millennium Development Goals – bankable pledge or sub-prime asset? UNESCO Future Forum - 2 March 2009 Kevin Watkins and Patrick Montjourides

11. Advanced economies Emerging and Developing regions apr-2008 oct-2008 nov-2008 jan-2009 Source: International Monetary Fund data - 2 , 0 0 , 0 2 , 0 4 , 0 6 , 0 8 , 0 10 , 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 GDP annual growth rate (%) Good news recovery projections – not to be taken too seriously The economic downturn The deteriorating picture for 2009 - 3 , 0 - 1 , 0 1 , 0 3 , 0 5 , 0 7 , 0 9 , 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 GDP annual growth rate (%)

18. Low EDI countries at major risk Bangladesh Guinea Nepal Benin India Nicaragua Bhutan Iraq* Niger Burkina Faso Lao PDR Nigeria Burundi Lesotho Pakistan Cambodia Madagascar Rwanda Chad Malawi Senegal Djibouti* Mali Togo Eritrea Mauritania Yemen* Ethiopia Mozambique Low-income country with low fiscal space Low Education Development Index (EDI) countries (29) Sources: International Monetary Fund, World Bank, GMR team calculations * No data available

19. Education indicators for 43 ‘high exposure’ countries 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Survival rates to last grade (%) Net enrolment rate in primary (%) Sources: International Monetary Fund, World Bank, GMR team calculations Countries close to UPE

20. Bangladesh Benin Bhutan Cambodia Burkina Faso Eritrea Ethiopia India Madagascar Mali Mauritania Mozambique Niger Nepal Nicaragua Pakistan Senegal Togo Rwanda Most ‘high exposure’ countries face severe fiscal constraints Kenya Lao PDR 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Survival rates to last grade (%) Net enrolment rate in primary (%) Sources: International Monetary Fund, World Bank, GMR team calculations Countries close to UPE Countries with low fiscal space

24. Current level of aid to basic education Aid to basic education in low-income countries (LIC) versus aid to banks during a crisis The development financing gap $US billons Sources: International Monetary Fund, GMR 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 EFA financing gap

25. $US billons Aid to basic education in low-income countries (LIC) versus aid to banks during a crisis Bank capital funded by public monies The development financing gap Sources: International Monetary Fund, GMR 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 EFA financing gap Lower bound estimate of MDGs financing