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+

Predictive Policing
“Predicting a crime even before a
criminal’s thought of it”
+

Welcome to the future of policing
+

What is it?
 Predictive

policing, with roots in business
analytics, relies on using advanced
technological tools and data analysis to take
proactive measures to “pre-empt” crime.



Its big change from the focus of re-active
system to the pre-emptive system. Time
Magazine named predictive policing one of
50 best inventions for 2011
+

Aims of a Predictive Policing System

 Assign

probabilities of future crime events
to regions of space and time

 Present

estimated crime risk in a useable
framework to law enforcement decision
makers

 Lead

to more efficient & more accurate
resource deployment by local law
enforcement agencies
+

How it works?

 A Predictive

policing uses complex mathematics to
estimate crime and predict future hot spots.
Researchers based these studies on information that
officers inherently know.

 For

example, when people are victims, the chance
that they or their neighbors will be victimized again
increases.

 Offenders

criminalize familiar areas. There are
detectable patterns associated with the times and
locations of their crimes.
+
+

Algorithm
 The

algorithm for Predictive Policing is based on an
Earthquake after shock prediction algorithm which is
essentially an pattern detection algorithm.

 The

algorithm uses historical information combined
with current data to determine patterns. The system
needs between 1,200 and 2,000 data
points, including burglaries, batteries, assaults, or
other crimes .

 Then

it will break down this list into individual
elements, and join them one by one to form a
detectable pattern.
+
1

2

3

4

Car Theft
5

Pawn
Shop
Robbed

1

Jewelry
Store

4
House
Burglary
+
+

Real Life Example

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Predictive policing computational thinking show and tell

  • 1. + Predictive Policing “Predicting a crime even before a criminal’s thought of it”
  • 2. + Welcome to the future of policing
  • 3. + What is it?  Predictive policing, with roots in business analytics, relies on using advanced technological tools and data analysis to take proactive measures to “pre-empt” crime.  Its big change from the focus of re-active system to the pre-emptive system. Time Magazine named predictive policing one of 50 best inventions for 2011
  • 4. + Aims of a Predictive Policing System  Assign probabilities of future crime events to regions of space and time  Present estimated crime risk in a useable framework to law enforcement decision makers  Lead to more efficient & more accurate resource deployment by local law enforcement agencies
  • 5. + How it works?  A Predictive policing uses complex mathematics to estimate crime and predict future hot spots. Researchers based these studies on information that officers inherently know.  For example, when people are victims, the chance that they or their neighbors will be victimized again increases.  Offenders criminalize familiar areas. There are detectable patterns associated with the times and locations of their crimes.
  • 6. +
  • 7. + Algorithm  The algorithm for Predictive Policing is based on an Earthquake after shock prediction algorithm which is essentially an pattern detection algorithm.  The algorithm uses historical information combined with current data to determine patterns. The system needs between 1,200 and 2,000 data points, including burglaries, batteries, assaults, or other crimes .  Then it will break down this list into individual elements, and join them one by one to form a detectable pattern.
  • 9. +