This study evaluated the ability of the dispersal-limited insect genus Monastria, endemic to the Brazilian Atlantic rainforest, to survive climate change. The researchers modeled the current and potential future climates suitable for Monastria using bioclimatic variables and habitat data from targeted field sampling and museum collections. The results showed that eight climate change scenarios predicted a dramatic reduction in suitable habitat for Monastria by 2050 and 2070, with only 4% of forest remnants remaining capable of supporting the species. This indicates that dispersal-limited species like Monastria, which already struggle with fragmented forests, may be highly threatened by climate change within a short timeframe.

1. Methods
 Targeted field sampling - 67 locations distributed all over the Atlantic rainforest
 Designed to include geographical and altitudinal extremes
 all forest physiognomies
 Also sampled “secondary” forests and areas with other land uses.
 Collections from 13 Natural History Museums
Model the current climate
niche and for different
scenarios of future climate
Calculate the area of
the niche in each
model
Calculate the area
intercepted by the current
and future climate
Calculate the area of
forest in the present
climate within this space
Tropical biodiversity hotspots shelter a large and poorly known part of the world’s
biodiversity, with many species with limited dispersal ability. These species are
particularly affected by global change because their survival depends on that the
forests where they are found now continues existing in a near future.
Inferring the effect of climate change on dispersal-limited species in the
Brazilian Atlantic rainforest with collection data and targeted field
sampling
Vitor Dias TARLI, Philippe Grandcolas & Roseli Pellens
Institut de Systématique, Evolution, Biodiversité, ISYEB - UMR 7205 CNRS MNHN UPMC EPHE, Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Sorbonne Universités,
CP50, 45 Rue Buffon, 75005 - Paris, France. vitor.dias-tarli@edu.mnhn.fr
Conclusion
 In a global perspective, the joint impacts of changes in biodiversity can be enormous
 Presently, forest fragmentation and climate change have dramatic effects on dispersal-limited
organisms.
 Even unspecialized organisms that depends on common resources of the forest understory
can be highly endangered
 This calls attention to the need for stopping any kind of deforestation right now to avoid
reinforcing any negative synergy with climate change effects
Study site
Brazilian Atlantic rainforest
 > 3000 km long from Northeast to Uruguay
 Reduced to less than 12% of its original surface
 72% of Brazilian population > 145,000 inhabitants
 Most of the Brazilian Economic Production
 70% of Brazilian threatened species
Model organism
 Insect genus Monastria Saussure, 1864 (Dictyoptera, Blaberidae)
 Endemic of the whole rainforest hotspot
 Abundant but still poorly known
 Unable to track climate change?
Aims
 Evaluate the ability of dispersal-limited and poorly-known species to survive
climate change in a highly fragmented forest
 Search the extent of forest remnants that are capable to host Monastria now and in
the projected future climates
 Assess how much collection data from Natural History Museums complement a
targeted field sampling
We modeled present and future potential
habitats based on sets of 19 Bioclim
variables with MaxEnt
Current climate - 1950-2000 -
Worldclim
Future - IPCC - 2050 and 2070
RCP 4.5 and 8.5
HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5
Results
Collection data
 Give a close image of that obtained with a
targeted sampling
 Habitat model nicely overlaps in 89% the
distribution obtained with targeted
sampling
 The range of the 19 Bioclim variables is
quite similar with the two datasets
 In addition, documents the distribution before
human disturbance
Philippe Grandcolas
Vitor Tarli
SOS Mata Atlântica/INPE 2014
Targeted sampling
Collection data
Overlap
Eight scenarios of climate change indicate dramatic reduction of the potential habitat for
Monastria in a short time frame
In the best projections, the species of this genus will find about 4% of forests required for
their survival.
4%
Remnants of
Atlantic Forest
4,13%2,85%
4,38% 2,35% 3,35%
3,18%4,17%
Most
optimistic
With very reduced capacity to disperse
from one fragment to another
Captured in reserves or fragments 1260 indiv.
Captured in plantations and pastures 0%
recaptured in the same forest 37%
recaptured in another nearby 0%
reserve or fragment
Philippe Grandcolas
20502070
Pellens, R & Grandcolas, P 2007 The conservation refugium value of small and disturbed Brazilian Atlantic forest fragments for the
endemic ovoviviparous cockroach Monastria biguttata (Insecta: Dictyoptera, Blaberidae, Blaberinae) Zoological Science 24: 11-19.
Pellens, R & Grandcolas, P 2003 Living in Atlantic forest fragments: life habits, behaviour and colony structure of the cockroach
Monastria biguttata (Dictyoptera, Blaberidae, Blaberinae) in Espirito Santo, Brazil. Canadian Journal of Zoology 82, 1929-1937.