SlideShare a Scribd company logo
Kelsi Potterf
Population Projection of
Bald Eagles: A Comparison of
Techniques
Data Origin
• Global Population Dynamics Database
▫ Havera and Kruse (1988)
 Audubon Society [Ground Counts]
 Illinois Natural History Survey [Aerial Counts]
 Elton Fawks [Ground Counts & Aerial Counts]
• Current known population data between 2010-2013
▫ ENF (2013)
 24 hour ground count
• Mid-winter Bald Eagle Counts
Study Area
• Mississippi and Illinois River Floodplain, Illinois
• Counts from 1957-1987
• Slightly different between studies
Figure 2. Inventory sites for
bald eagles in Illinois conducted
by the Illinois Natural History
Survey, 1972-1987 (Havera &
Kruse 1988). These sites are
indicated by the black hash
marks, bold circles and bold
squares. Counts conducted by
the Audubon Society generally
occurred near chapter locations
(Havera & Kruse 1988)
indicated by the unfilled circles.
Inventory sites of the Fawks
surveys occurred north of the
bold black line to the northern
border of the state as deducted
by locations given by Havera &
Kruse (1988).
Figure 1. Bald eagle population size from 1957 to 1987 from each survey method reported by
Fawks, the Audubon Society, and the INHS as provided by Havera and Kruse (1988).
Figure 1. Bald eagle population size from 1957 to 1987 from each survey method reported by
Fawks, the Audubon Society, and the INHS as provided by Havera and Kruse (1988).
Thoughts
• “Couldn’t you find the actual population size and
compare each method to that?”-comparison of
method accuracy
• Actual population size is only truly known when the
population is closed and when we can obtain a
census
• We accept the data as truth-philosophical approach
Goals 1. Do these methods
produce significantly
different results?
2. What are the growth
rates of the population
and potential future
population size given
the data?
3. And how do these
projections differ from
the current known
population size?
Data Analysis
1. Frequentist Approach (SAS)
▫ 8 years of common collection (1973-1980)
▫ Student’s T-test
2. Estimation of growth rate and best fit linear
model and average lambda (Excel)
3. Frequentist Approach (SAS)
▫ Population projections from all 3 surveys compared
against the current known population data
▫ Student’s T-test
Results/Conclusions
1. Raw data; P and T values conclude-Ha: Fawks ≠
INHS, Fawks ≠ Audubon, Audubon = INHS
2. Trendlines with maximized correlations; each
survey technique predict a different growth model
3. Growth rate predictions from the Fawks study
differ statistically from current known population
sizes
Why?
Figure 3. Bald Eagle population growth trends across the 3 survey types projected into the present where the current
known population data is represented by ENF when 8 years of common data are included.
y = 78.3x + 532.39
R² = 0.5335
y = 41.983x + 285.86
R² = 0.4065
y = 48.783x + 303.86
R² = 0.4382
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
PopulationSize
Year
Fawks
Audobon
INHS
ENF
Linear (Fawks)
Linear (Audobon)
Linear (INHS)
Figure 4. Bald Eagle population growth trends across the 3 survey types projected into the present
where the current known population data is represented by ENF when all years of data are present.
y = 336.94e0.0495x
R² = 0.7551
y = 23.756x0.9689
R² = 0.2917
y = 27.017x - 7.6913
R² = 0.6523
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
PopulationSize
Year
Fawkes
Audobon
INHS
ENF
Expon. (Fawkes)
Power (Audobon)
Linear (INHS)
Discussion
• Not all models are true, but some are helpful.
• Philosophical approach to data collection and
interpretation
• Different estimations of abundance and growth
rate can affect the way we manage a species
• This specific example: determine when we can
delist or predicting when recovery will occur
Questions???

More Related Content

Similar to Population Projection of Bald Eagles

Student Name SCIN 401 MammalogyCase Study Assignment Wee.docx
Student Name SCIN 401 MammalogyCase Study Assignment Wee.docxStudent Name SCIN 401 MammalogyCase Study Assignment Wee.docx
Student Name SCIN 401 MammalogyCase Study Assignment Wee.docx
emelyvalg9
 
2016 conservation track: geospatial and temporal population analysis of short...
2016 conservation track: geospatial and temporal population analysis of short...2016 conservation track: geospatial and temporal population analysis of short...
2016 conservation track: geospatial and temporal population analysis of short...
GIS in the Rockies
 
Study: Discrimination in Topeka, 2002
Study: Discrimination in Topeka, 2002Study: Discrimination in Topeka, 2002
Study: Discrimination in Topeka, 2002
Travis Barnhart
 
Final From journal on website
Final From journal on websiteFinal From journal on website
Final From journal on websiteMichael Clawson
 
Statistics ppts
Statistics pptsStatistics ppts
Statistics ppts
PatelKapeesh
 
Spatial representation of data in Urban Planning and Design
Spatial representation of data in Urban Planning and DesignSpatial representation of data in Urban Planning and Design
Spatial representation of data in Urban Planning and Design
Roberto Rocco
 
Community and Public Health (Week 2&3)
Community and Public Health (Week 2&3)Community and Public Health (Week 2&3)
Community and Public Health (Week 2&3)
Ana Anastacio
 
Intro to statistics formatted (1)
Intro to statistics   formatted (1)Intro to statistics   formatted (1)
Intro to statistics formatted (1)Ulster BOCES
 
Intro to statistics formatted
Intro to statistics   formattedIntro to statistics   formatted
Intro to statistics formattedUlster BOCES
 
Pop geog 1
Pop geog 1Pop geog 1
Pop geog 1
Azzab Mohammed
 
Data Journalism - Storytelling with Data
Data Journalism - Storytelling with DataData Journalism - Storytelling with Data
Data Journalism - Storytelling with Data
Bahareh Heravi
 
The Data Lifecycle (Harvard DataFest)
The Data Lifecycle (Harvard DataFest)The Data Lifecycle (Harvard DataFest)
The Data Lifecycle (Harvard DataFest)
Merce Crosas
 
Population data sources
Population  data  sourcesPopulation  data  sources
Population data sources
Rezaul Karim
 
Statistics Informed Decisions Using Data 5th edition by Michael Sullivan solu...
Statistics Informed Decisions Using Data 5th edition by Michael Sullivan solu...Statistics Informed Decisions Using Data 5th edition by Michael Sullivan solu...
Statistics Informed Decisions Using Data 5th edition by Michael Sullivan solu...
ssuserf63bd7
 
Status of Statistics
Status of StatisticsStatus of Statistics
Status of Statistics
Babajide Samson
 
Cataloging charts
Cataloging chartsCataloging charts
Cataloging charts
Ime Amor Mortel
 
Year 12 Maths A Textbook - Chapter 4
Year 12 Maths A Textbook - Chapter 4Year 12 Maths A Textbook - Chapter 4
Year 12 Maths A Textbook - Chapter 4westy67968
 

Similar to Population Projection of Bald Eagles (20)

Student Name SCIN 401 MammalogyCase Study Assignment Wee.docx
Student Name SCIN 401 MammalogyCase Study Assignment Wee.docxStudent Name SCIN 401 MammalogyCase Study Assignment Wee.docx
Student Name SCIN 401 MammalogyCase Study Assignment Wee.docx
 
CatDIS_Poster2
CatDIS_Poster2CatDIS_Poster2
CatDIS_Poster2
 
2016 conservation track: geospatial and temporal population analysis of short...
2016 conservation track: geospatial and temporal population analysis of short...2016 conservation track: geospatial and temporal population analysis of short...
2016 conservation track: geospatial and temporal population analysis of short...
 
Study: Discrimination in Topeka, 2002
Study: Discrimination in Topeka, 2002Study: Discrimination in Topeka, 2002
Study: Discrimination in Topeka, 2002
 
Final From journal on website
Final From journal on websiteFinal From journal on website
Final From journal on website
 
Statistics ppts
Statistics pptsStatistics ppts
Statistics ppts
 
Leslie Matrices
Leslie MatricesLeslie Matrices
Leslie Matrices
 
Spatial representation of data in Urban Planning and Design
Spatial representation of data in Urban Planning and DesignSpatial representation of data in Urban Planning and Design
Spatial representation of data in Urban Planning and Design
 
Poster
PosterPoster
Poster
 
Community and Public Health (Week 2&3)
Community and Public Health (Week 2&3)Community and Public Health (Week 2&3)
Community and Public Health (Week 2&3)
 
Intro to statistics formatted (1)
Intro to statistics   formatted (1)Intro to statistics   formatted (1)
Intro to statistics formatted (1)
 
Intro to statistics formatted
Intro to statistics   formattedIntro to statistics   formatted
Intro to statistics formatted
 
Pop geog 1
Pop geog 1Pop geog 1
Pop geog 1
 
Data Journalism - Storytelling with Data
Data Journalism - Storytelling with DataData Journalism - Storytelling with Data
Data Journalism - Storytelling with Data
 
The Data Lifecycle (Harvard DataFest)
The Data Lifecycle (Harvard DataFest)The Data Lifecycle (Harvard DataFest)
The Data Lifecycle (Harvard DataFest)
 
Population data sources
Population  data  sourcesPopulation  data  sources
Population data sources
 
Statistics Informed Decisions Using Data 5th edition by Michael Sullivan solu...
Statistics Informed Decisions Using Data 5th edition by Michael Sullivan solu...Statistics Informed Decisions Using Data 5th edition by Michael Sullivan solu...
Statistics Informed Decisions Using Data 5th edition by Michael Sullivan solu...
 
Status of Statistics
Status of StatisticsStatus of Statistics
Status of Statistics
 
Cataloging charts
Cataloging chartsCataloging charts
Cataloging charts
 
Year 12 Maths A Textbook - Chapter 4
Year 12 Maths A Textbook - Chapter 4Year 12 Maths A Textbook - Chapter 4
Year 12 Maths A Textbook - Chapter 4
 

Recently uploaded

Celebrating World-environment-day-2024.pdf
Celebrating  World-environment-day-2024.pdfCelebrating  World-environment-day-2024.pdf
Celebrating World-environment-day-2024.pdf
rohankumarsinghrore1
 
growbilliontrees.com-Trees for Granddaughter (1).pdf
growbilliontrees.com-Trees for Granddaughter (1).pdfgrowbilliontrees.com-Trees for Granddaughter (1).pdf
growbilliontrees.com-Trees for Granddaughter (1).pdf
yadavakashagra
 
Sustainable farming practices in India .pptx
Sustainable farming  practices in India .pptxSustainable farming  practices in India .pptx
Sustainable farming practices in India .pptx
chaitaliambole
 
alhambra case study Islamic gardens part-2.pptx
alhambra case study Islamic gardens part-2.pptxalhambra case study Islamic gardens part-2.pptx
alhambra case study Islamic gardens part-2.pptx
CECOS University Peshawar, Pakistan
 
Presentación Giulio Quaggiotto-Diálogo improbable .pptx.pdf
Presentación Giulio Quaggiotto-Diálogo improbable .pptx.pdfPresentación Giulio Quaggiotto-Diálogo improbable .pptx.pdf
Presentación Giulio Quaggiotto-Diálogo improbable .pptx.pdf
Innovation and Technology for Development Centre
 
Artificial Reefs by Kuddle Life Foundation - May 2024
Artificial Reefs by Kuddle Life Foundation - May 2024Artificial Reefs by Kuddle Life Foundation - May 2024
Artificial Reefs by Kuddle Life Foundation - May 2024
punit537210
 
UNDERSTANDING WHAT GREEN WASHING IS!.pdf
UNDERSTANDING WHAT GREEN WASHING IS!.pdfUNDERSTANDING WHAT GREEN WASHING IS!.pdf
UNDERSTANDING WHAT GREEN WASHING IS!.pdf
JulietMogola
 
AGRICULTURE Hydrophonic FERTILISER PPT.pptx
AGRICULTURE Hydrophonic FERTILISER PPT.pptxAGRICULTURE Hydrophonic FERTILISER PPT.pptx
AGRICULTURE Hydrophonic FERTILISER PPT.pptx
BanitaDsouza
 
How about Huawei mobile phone-www.cfye-commerce.shop
How about Huawei mobile phone-www.cfye-commerce.shopHow about Huawei mobile phone-www.cfye-commerce.shop
How about Huawei mobile phone-www.cfye-commerce.shop
laozhuseo02
 
Natural farming @ Dr. Siddhartha S. Jena.pptx
Natural farming @ Dr. Siddhartha S. Jena.pptxNatural farming @ Dr. Siddhartha S. Jena.pptx
Natural farming @ Dr. Siddhartha S. Jena.pptx
sidjena70
 
Daan Park Hydrangea flower season I like it
Daan Park Hydrangea flower season I like itDaan Park Hydrangea flower season I like it
Daan Park Hydrangea flower season I like it
a0966109726
 
Summary of the Climate and Energy Policy of Australia
Summary of the Climate and Energy Policy of AustraliaSummary of the Climate and Energy Policy of Australia
Summary of the Climate and Energy Policy of Australia
yasmindemoraes1
 
"Understanding the Carbon Cycle: Processes, Human Impacts, and Strategies for...
"Understanding the Carbon Cycle: Processes, Human Impacts, and Strategies for..."Understanding the Carbon Cycle: Processes, Human Impacts, and Strategies for...
"Understanding the Carbon Cycle: Processes, Human Impacts, and Strategies for...
MMariSelvam4
 
ppt on beauty of the nature by Palak.pptx
ppt on  beauty of the nature by Palak.pptxppt on  beauty of the nature by Palak.pptx
ppt on beauty of the nature by Palak.pptx
RaniJaiswal16
 
Q&A with the Experts: The Food Service Playbook
Q&A with the Experts: The Food Service PlaybookQ&A with the Experts: The Food Service Playbook
Q&A with the Experts: The Food Service Playbook
World Resources Institute (WRI)
 
DRAFT NRW Recreation Strategy - People and Nature thriving together
DRAFT NRW Recreation Strategy - People and Nature thriving togetherDRAFT NRW Recreation Strategy - People and Nature thriving together
DRAFT NRW Recreation Strategy - People and Nature thriving together
Robin Grant
 
Alert-driven Community-based Forest monitoring: A case of the Peruvian Amazon
Alert-driven Community-based Forest monitoring: A case of the Peruvian AmazonAlert-driven Community-based Forest monitoring: A case of the Peruvian Amazon
Alert-driven Community-based Forest monitoring: A case of the Peruvian Amazon
CIFOR-ICRAF
 
NRW Board Paper - DRAFT NRW Recreation Strategy
NRW Board Paper - DRAFT NRW Recreation StrategyNRW Board Paper - DRAFT NRW Recreation Strategy
NRW Board Paper - DRAFT NRW Recreation Strategy
Robin Grant
 
International+e-Commerce+Platform-www.cfye-commerce.shop
International+e-Commerce+Platform-www.cfye-commerce.shopInternational+e-Commerce+Platform-www.cfye-commerce.shop
International+e-Commerce+Platform-www.cfye-commerce.shop
laozhuseo02
 
Environmental Science Book By Dr. Y.K. Singh
Environmental Science Book By Dr. Y.K. SinghEnvironmental Science Book By Dr. Y.K. Singh
Environmental Science Book By Dr. Y.K. Singh
AhmadKhan917612
 

Recently uploaded (20)

Celebrating World-environment-day-2024.pdf
Celebrating  World-environment-day-2024.pdfCelebrating  World-environment-day-2024.pdf
Celebrating World-environment-day-2024.pdf
 
growbilliontrees.com-Trees for Granddaughter (1).pdf
growbilliontrees.com-Trees for Granddaughter (1).pdfgrowbilliontrees.com-Trees for Granddaughter (1).pdf
growbilliontrees.com-Trees for Granddaughter (1).pdf
 
Sustainable farming practices in India .pptx
Sustainable farming  practices in India .pptxSustainable farming  practices in India .pptx
Sustainable farming practices in India .pptx
 
alhambra case study Islamic gardens part-2.pptx
alhambra case study Islamic gardens part-2.pptxalhambra case study Islamic gardens part-2.pptx
alhambra case study Islamic gardens part-2.pptx
 
Presentación Giulio Quaggiotto-Diálogo improbable .pptx.pdf
Presentación Giulio Quaggiotto-Diálogo improbable .pptx.pdfPresentación Giulio Quaggiotto-Diálogo improbable .pptx.pdf
Presentación Giulio Quaggiotto-Diálogo improbable .pptx.pdf
 
Artificial Reefs by Kuddle Life Foundation - May 2024
Artificial Reefs by Kuddle Life Foundation - May 2024Artificial Reefs by Kuddle Life Foundation - May 2024
Artificial Reefs by Kuddle Life Foundation - May 2024
 
UNDERSTANDING WHAT GREEN WASHING IS!.pdf
UNDERSTANDING WHAT GREEN WASHING IS!.pdfUNDERSTANDING WHAT GREEN WASHING IS!.pdf
UNDERSTANDING WHAT GREEN WASHING IS!.pdf
 
AGRICULTURE Hydrophonic FERTILISER PPT.pptx
AGRICULTURE Hydrophonic FERTILISER PPT.pptxAGRICULTURE Hydrophonic FERTILISER PPT.pptx
AGRICULTURE Hydrophonic FERTILISER PPT.pptx
 
How about Huawei mobile phone-www.cfye-commerce.shop
How about Huawei mobile phone-www.cfye-commerce.shopHow about Huawei mobile phone-www.cfye-commerce.shop
How about Huawei mobile phone-www.cfye-commerce.shop
 
Natural farming @ Dr. Siddhartha S. Jena.pptx
Natural farming @ Dr. Siddhartha S. Jena.pptxNatural farming @ Dr. Siddhartha S. Jena.pptx
Natural farming @ Dr. Siddhartha S. Jena.pptx
 
Daan Park Hydrangea flower season I like it
Daan Park Hydrangea flower season I like itDaan Park Hydrangea flower season I like it
Daan Park Hydrangea flower season I like it
 
Summary of the Climate and Energy Policy of Australia
Summary of the Climate and Energy Policy of AustraliaSummary of the Climate and Energy Policy of Australia
Summary of the Climate and Energy Policy of Australia
 
"Understanding the Carbon Cycle: Processes, Human Impacts, and Strategies for...
"Understanding the Carbon Cycle: Processes, Human Impacts, and Strategies for..."Understanding the Carbon Cycle: Processes, Human Impacts, and Strategies for...
"Understanding the Carbon Cycle: Processes, Human Impacts, and Strategies for...
 
ppt on beauty of the nature by Palak.pptx
ppt on  beauty of the nature by Palak.pptxppt on  beauty of the nature by Palak.pptx
ppt on beauty of the nature by Palak.pptx
 
Q&A with the Experts: The Food Service Playbook
Q&A with the Experts: The Food Service PlaybookQ&A with the Experts: The Food Service Playbook
Q&A with the Experts: The Food Service Playbook
 
DRAFT NRW Recreation Strategy - People and Nature thriving together
DRAFT NRW Recreation Strategy - People and Nature thriving togetherDRAFT NRW Recreation Strategy - People and Nature thriving together
DRAFT NRW Recreation Strategy - People and Nature thriving together
 
Alert-driven Community-based Forest monitoring: A case of the Peruvian Amazon
Alert-driven Community-based Forest monitoring: A case of the Peruvian AmazonAlert-driven Community-based Forest monitoring: A case of the Peruvian Amazon
Alert-driven Community-based Forest monitoring: A case of the Peruvian Amazon
 
NRW Board Paper - DRAFT NRW Recreation Strategy
NRW Board Paper - DRAFT NRW Recreation StrategyNRW Board Paper - DRAFT NRW Recreation Strategy
NRW Board Paper - DRAFT NRW Recreation Strategy
 
International+e-Commerce+Platform-www.cfye-commerce.shop
International+e-Commerce+Platform-www.cfye-commerce.shopInternational+e-Commerce+Platform-www.cfye-commerce.shop
International+e-Commerce+Platform-www.cfye-commerce.shop
 
Environmental Science Book By Dr. Y.K. Singh
Environmental Science Book By Dr. Y.K. SinghEnvironmental Science Book By Dr. Y.K. Singh
Environmental Science Book By Dr. Y.K. Singh
 

Population Projection of Bald Eagles

  • 1. Kelsi Potterf Population Projection of Bald Eagles: A Comparison of Techniques
  • 2. Data Origin • Global Population Dynamics Database ▫ Havera and Kruse (1988)  Audubon Society [Ground Counts]  Illinois Natural History Survey [Aerial Counts]  Elton Fawks [Ground Counts & Aerial Counts] • Current known population data between 2010-2013 ▫ ENF (2013)  24 hour ground count • Mid-winter Bald Eagle Counts
  • 3. Study Area • Mississippi and Illinois River Floodplain, Illinois • Counts from 1957-1987 • Slightly different between studies
  • 4. Figure 2. Inventory sites for bald eagles in Illinois conducted by the Illinois Natural History Survey, 1972-1987 (Havera & Kruse 1988). These sites are indicated by the black hash marks, bold circles and bold squares. Counts conducted by the Audubon Society generally occurred near chapter locations (Havera & Kruse 1988) indicated by the unfilled circles. Inventory sites of the Fawks surveys occurred north of the bold black line to the northern border of the state as deducted by locations given by Havera & Kruse (1988).
  • 5. Figure 1. Bald eagle population size from 1957 to 1987 from each survey method reported by Fawks, the Audubon Society, and the INHS as provided by Havera and Kruse (1988).
  • 6. Figure 1. Bald eagle population size from 1957 to 1987 from each survey method reported by Fawks, the Audubon Society, and the INHS as provided by Havera and Kruse (1988).
  • 7. Thoughts • “Couldn’t you find the actual population size and compare each method to that?”-comparison of method accuracy • Actual population size is only truly known when the population is closed and when we can obtain a census • We accept the data as truth-philosophical approach
  • 8. Goals 1. Do these methods produce significantly different results? 2. What are the growth rates of the population and potential future population size given the data? 3. And how do these projections differ from the current known population size?
  • 9. Data Analysis 1. Frequentist Approach (SAS) ▫ 8 years of common collection (1973-1980) ▫ Student’s T-test 2. Estimation of growth rate and best fit linear model and average lambda (Excel) 3. Frequentist Approach (SAS) ▫ Population projections from all 3 surveys compared against the current known population data ▫ Student’s T-test
  • 10. Results/Conclusions 1. Raw data; P and T values conclude-Ha: Fawks ≠ INHS, Fawks ≠ Audubon, Audubon = INHS 2. Trendlines with maximized correlations; each survey technique predict a different growth model 3. Growth rate predictions from the Fawks study differ statistically from current known population sizes Why?
  • 11. Figure 3. Bald Eagle population growth trends across the 3 survey types projected into the present where the current known population data is represented by ENF when 8 years of common data are included. y = 78.3x + 532.39 R² = 0.5335 y = 41.983x + 285.86 R² = 0.4065 y = 48.783x + 303.86 R² = 0.4382 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 PopulationSize Year Fawks Audobon INHS ENF Linear (Fawks) Linear (Audobon) Linear (INHS)
  • 12. Figure 4. Bald Eagle population growth trends across the 3 survey types projected into the present where the current known population data is represented by ENF when all years of data are present. y = 336.94e0.0495x R² = 0.7551 y = 23.756x0.9689 R² = 0.2917 y = 27.017x - 7.6913 R² = 0.6523 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 PopulationSize Year Fawkes Audobon INHS ENF Expon. (Fawkes) Power (Audobon) Linear (INHS)
  • 13. Discussion • Not all models are true, but some are helpful. • Philosophical approach to data collection and interpretation • Different estimations of abundance and growth rate can affect the way we manage a species • This specific example: determine when we can delist or predicting when recovery will occur