It seems that if Dilma Rousseff is not destituted of power through impeachment by the responsibility of crime described lines ago, Brazil can be the stage of upheaval with the confrontation between the overwhelming majority of the Brazilian people that want their deposition and the supporters of Government of unpredictable consequences. One must consider the lessons of history that teach us that the social upheaval can lead to the establishment of dictatorships. This is the risk that threatens the Brazilian society. Does Brazil face the possibility of a tragic future economic and political? This scenario depends on the outcome that may occur with respect to the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff.

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BRAZIL THREATENED OF A TRAGIC FUTURE?
Fernando Alcoforado *
President Dilma Rousseff is undergoing impeachment process because she is accused of
responsibility crime in the financial and administrative spheres due to the make-up in
public accounts made illegally by her government aimed to move to the nation and also
to international investors feel that Brazil would be economically healthy. Dilma
Rousseff is liable to practice continuous crime started in the first term that was
continued in 2015 with six illegal signing decrees authorizing additional funds to the
Union budget without forecast in the Budget Guidelines Law and therefore without
congressional authorization. The assertion that the impeachment process, sponsored by
lawyers Hélio Bicudo, Miguel Reale Junior and Janaína Paschoal, is coup, proclaimed
by government supporters Dilma Rousseff, has not, therefore, support.
It is in motion the process that aims to prevent the impeachment of President Dilma
Rousseff. The recent decision (12/17/2015) of the Supreme Court, annulling the Special
Committee elected by a large majority of opposition to the Dilma Rousseff government
in Congress and the assignment to the Senate, where the federal government has a
majority, could accept or reject the authorization of the House of Representatives to
process the President of the Republic by the above responsibility crime, is the first step
adopted by supporters of Dilma Rousseff government and its allies to avoid
impeachment. This means that not materializing impeachment, the Brazilian nation will
have to live with a government that is leading Brazil to the economic depression that,
besides promoting the crash of companies and mass unemployment, further reduce state
revenues that will require cuts in the government budget and tax increases.
Most likely, no domestic and foreign investor will invest in Brazil with a stagnant
economy is right now and a government under siege by its population as of Dilma
Rousseff. Brazil already had its downgraded credit ratings by Standard & Poor's
agencies (S & P) and Fitch causing the country to lose good paying status, a fact that
should result in capital flight from the country and the impracticability of attracting
foreign capital for investment. The stagnation of the Brazilian economy makes also
occur government revenues fall at all levels implying no public resources in quantity
sufficient for investment to invest in economic and social infrastructure and to meet
their most basic needs.
The first and major consequence of the disastrous Dilma Rousseff government is
already manifesting in the rise in unemployment that has reached 10 million workers
and the increase in the inflation rate that already exceeds 10% annually. A fact that calls
the attention of any economic analyst concerns the Dilma Rousseff government's
decision to promote fiscal adjustment without the simultaneous adoption of measures to
contribute to the retake of development in Brazil. The incompetence of the Dilma
Rousseff government goes beyond all limits by not propose, in addition to fiscal
adjustment, a development plan for Brazil that points to the population and the
productive sectors the prospect of renewed economic growth. It is the absence of this
plan one of the factors that leads to immobility of the private sector in investments
leading them to a true paralysis.
On the fiscal adjustment of the federal government, it is a fallacy to say that it is the
only adjustment capable of Brazil to overcome the current crisis. In fact, the fiscal
adjustment proposed by the weakened Dilma Rousseff government is that could lead the

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country to bankruptcy for the simple fact that by promoting a recession to fight against
inflation, will be contributing to the decline in the level of economic activity in general,
general business "crash" and, as a result, mass unemployment that is already underway.
The real fiscal adjustment that should be carried out in the country is what would
include: 1) taxation of large fortunes provided in the 1988 Constitution, which was
never implemented; 2) increasing the tax on financial institutions; 3) drastic reduction
of the cost of spending by the federal government; and 4) reducing the burden of the
federal government with the payment of the public debt that corresponded in 2014 to
45.11% of the Union budget.
Brazil is on the verge of bankruptcy because it coexists with the most serious economic
crisis of the past 85 years, similar to that shook the country in 1930. Brazil is a country
that is terminally ill, as well said the Financial Times recently. Brazil's situation is so
critical that HSBC, Europe's biggest bank and the seventh largest in the world, decided
to abandon Brazil selling its assets below market value to Bradesco. Besides that, there
is the occurrence of a dizzying wave of unemployment and widespread failure that can
lead to an unprecedented upheaval in the history of Brazil. Most companies are highly
vulnerable and unstable markets with the high dollar and falling export earnings that
could lead the country to bankruptcy. The financial situation of the federal government,
state governments and municipalities is already quite committed to the precipitous drop
of the tax revenue resulting of the downturn in economic activity in Brazil.
All that has just been described coincides with the existence of a weak government
under the incompetent management of Dilma Rousseff that does not have the political
leadership nor the administrative capacity needed to make the changes required for
Brazil at the moment considering having the rejection of 90% of the population who
want his removal from power. It seems that if Dilma Rousseff is not destituted of power
through impeachment by the responsibility of crime described lines ago, Brazil can be
the stage of upheaval with the confrontation between the overwhelming majority of the
Brazilian people that want their deposition and the supporters of Government of
unpredictable consequences. One must consider the lessons of history that teach us that
the social upheaval can lead to the establishment of dictatorships. This is the risk that
threatens the Brazilian society. Does Brazil face the possibility of a tragic future
economic and political? This scenario depends on the outcome that may occur with
respect to the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff.

Fernando Alcoforado, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor of Territorial
Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, a university professor and
consultant in strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is
the author of Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova
(Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São
Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado.
Universidade de Barcelona, http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e
Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX
e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of
the Economic and Social Development-The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Muller
Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe
Planetária (P&A Gráfica e Editora, Salvador, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e
combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011),
Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012) and
Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV,
Curitiba, 2015).