The document models and projects tertiary education participation rates in Australia out to 2031 under different scenarios. It analyzes historical enrollment and participation data for higher education and VET separately and combined. Scenarios include capping higher education enrollment growth and VET absorbing the excess demand. Projections show capping higher education growth would significantly decrease higher education and overall tertiary participation rates by 2031 without increased VET participation to compensate. Maintaining overall tertiary participation at current rates requires continued enrollment growth across both higher education and VET.

1. Modelling increased tertiary
participation in Australia
Peter Noonan
Professor Tertiary Education Policy

2. Purpose of modelling tertiary participation
 Need to focus on overall participation in tertiary education in
Australia in medium to longer term.
 Todays pre-schoolers will enter tertiary education in 2030-31
 Participation levels influence tertiary attainment levels.
 Importance of tertiary to workforce and social participation.
 Effect of population growth on tertiary participation - if
enrolment growth is less than population growth
participation rates fall.
 Balance of growth and participation between VET and HE.

3. Model features
 Tertiary = Certificate III-IV, Diplomas and Advanced Diplomas,
Associate Degrees and Bachelor programs.
 2017 enrolments estimated
 Publicly funded (some FEE HELP programs included).
 Domestic only.
 HE and VET separately and tertiary as a whole.
 Participation = enrolments as a % of the estimated resident
population.
 Assumption based – different assumptions yield different
results
 Overall trends important not year by year results.

4. Data and scenarios – higher education
• Actual student enrolments 2008-2016.
• Actual participation rates 2008-2016.
• Projected higher education student enrolments from 2018-
2031 based on the most recent two year enrolment trend.
• The effects of the MYEFO decision to cap funding for
undergraduate student enrolments in 2018 and 2019 with
enrolment increases limited to growth in the 18-64 age
population to 2031.
• The effect of capping undergraduate student enrolments on
participation levels in higher education to 2031.
• The effect of these scenarios on higher-education
participation.

5. Data and scenarios - VET
• Actual student enrolments 2008-2016.
• Actual participation rates 2008-2016.
• Projected VET student enrolments from 2018-2031 based
on the most recent two-year enrolment trend.
• Projected student enrolments required to 2031 to maintain
2016 participation levels
• VET absorbs gap in enrolments between HE 2 year trend
and effect of MYEFO decision (i.e. VET compensates for
lower HE growth rate)
• The effect of the two-year enrolment trend on
participation rates in VET to 2031.

6. Data and scenarios -tertiary education as a
whole
 Actual student enrolments 2008-2016.
 Actual participation rates 2008-2016.
 Projected tertiary student enrolments from 2018-2031
based on the most recent enrolment trend.
 Projected student enrolments under higher education
financial caps in 2018 and 2019 and 18-64 age population
growth increases from 2020, with VET following the two-
year trend to 2031.
 Scenario eight: student enrolments required to maintain
tertiary participation at 2016 levels.
 The effect of these scenarios on tertiary participation to
2031.

7. Effect of scenarios on HE student numbers
(national)
567,466
914,020
809,679
1,152,460
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Students
Actual students
Two year trend
Financial caps and population growth from 2020

8. Effect of scenarios on VET student numbers
731,242
982,636
481,895
774,400
243,455
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Students
Actual students
Two year trend
VET absorbs HE trend growth
Fixed participation rates

9. Effect of scenarios on VET participation rates
5.1%
5.3%
2.6%
4.8%
1.3%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
Participationrate
Actual students
Fixed participation rates
VET absorbs HE trend growth
Two year trend

10. Effect of scenarios on tertiary student
numbers
1,298,708
1,157,474
1,904,980
1,584,079
1,395,914
1,000,000
1,100,000
1,200,000
1,300,000
1,400,000
1,500,000
1,600,000
1,700,000
1,800,000
1,900,000
2,000,000
Students
Actual students
Students required to maintain 2016 participation rates
Two year trend
HE financial caps and population growth
VET two year trend

11. Effect of scenarios on tertiary student
participation (national)
9.1%
6.2%
10.2%
8.5%
9.8%
7.5%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
Participationrate
Fixed 2017 enrolments
Actual students
Fixed participation
HE financial caps and population growth
VET two year trend
Two year trend

12. Implications for equity
 Ongoing growth in both sectors required to improve
participation levels.
 Declining participation in VET a particular concern given VET’s
equity role and profile.
 Risk of continuing shift of costs to students
 Need for a common and consistent income contingent loan
scheme across the sectors.
 Free TAFEVET courses should be targeted to Year 12
equivalent courses (Certificate II) particularly for young
people