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Norsk oljeindustri
– ett skritt videre
Per Harald Kongelf
SVP Improvements
AKER BP ASA
Offshore Strategikonferansen
6. februar 2017
2
Disclaimer
This Document includes and is based, inter alia, on forward-looking information and statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that
could cause actual results to differ. These statements and this Document are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about
global economic conditions, the economic conditions of the regions and industries that are major markets for Aker BP ASA’s lines of business.
These expectations, estimates and projections are generally identifiable by statements containing words such as ”expects”, ”believes”,
”estimates” or similar expressions. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expectations include, among
others, economic and market conditions in the geographic areas and industries that are or will be major markets for Aker BP ASA’s
businesses, oil prices, market acceptance of new products and services, changes in governmental regulations, interest rates, fluctuations in
currency exchange rates and such other factors as may be discussed from time to time in the Document. Although Aker BP ASA believes that
its expectations and the Document are based upon reasonable assumptions, it can give no assurance that those expectations will be achieved
or that the actual results will be as set out in the Document. Aker BP ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to
the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the Document, and neither Aker BP ASA nor any of its directors, officers or employees will have
any liability to you or any other persons resulting from your use.
3
Solid footprint covering entire NCS
* Phase 1
ABOUT AKER BP
Skarv
Alvheim
Ivar Aasen
Johan Sverdrup
Ula/Tambar
Valhall/Hod
Alvheim
High production efficiency and low operating cost
Ivar Aasen
First oil December 2016
Johan Sverdrup
World class development with break even price below 25 USD/bbl*
Skarv
Solid base performance and upside potential
Ula/Tambar
Late life production with significant upside potential
Valhall/Hod
1 billion barrels produced, ambition to produce additional 500 mmbbls
4
AKER BP – WE NEED STEP CHANGE IN COMPETITIVNESS
The E&P business is being challenged
Climate/Global warming
Digitalization
Unconventionals
Low cost oil & gas from the ME
Energy efficiency
Competitive renewables and hydrogen society
Pricing challenges Structural challenges Business model disruption
Electric vehicles
Low rate of discovery
Consumer behavior
Lack of investments
5
AKER BP FOCUSING ON CONTINUES IMPROVEMENT
Ivar Aasen successfully delivered but....
Still vast potential for improvement
6
AKER BP BOLD AMBITIONS
We belive it is possible...
Goal
CAPEX break-even <35 USD/bbl
OPEX <6-7 USD/bbl
Finding cost, after
tax
<1 USD/bbl
Project lead time
explo well – first oil
50% of 2015 baseline
7
IMPROVMENT BUT NOT ON THE EXPENCE OF HSE
No harm to people or environment
8
AKER BP THINKING
Great savings are possible, but requires a new way of thinking
Impactoncosts/efficiency
Easeofimplementation
Renegotiations and cancellations/tuning of activities
Cultural change in how we look at improvements and cost
Revitalizing the business model – radical changes
20-30%
30-50%
>50%
9
AKER BP STRATEGY AND THINKING
Aker BP aims to build the benchmark offshore E&P company
... by building the benchmark E&P company
together with our suppliers
Use the downturn to create a company for
the future...
n Deliver on existing projects
n Realize value of resource inventory
n Integrate acquisitions
Execute
n Deliver on improvement agenda
n Strengthen improvement capabilities
n Develop new improvement initiatives
Improve
n Be opportunistic and exploit market
opportunities
n Selective growth that is value accretive
n Secure new exploration acreage
Grow
n Reorganize the value chain by strategic
partnerships and alliances
n Digitize the E&P value chain
n Value chain based on shared LEAN
understanding, toolbox and culture
n Flexible business model ready for
growth and volatility
10
n Misalignment on incentives resulting in extensive control mechanisms
n Thin margins causing fight for margins, moving focus away from quality and
waste reduction
Alternative set up - Aker BP target
STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS
Traditional set-up
Supplier relations that will maximize value for all parties
n Risk sharing of downside
n Incentive based contract - well as a service
OperationsCommercial
Operator (Integrator)
OperationsCommercial
Alliance model‘Transactional
relations’ model
Aker BP intends to organize as many supplier relations as possible based on this model
n Top down governance (operator instruction based)
n Multiple interfaces – up to 60 suppliers on projects/wells
n Limited incentives for waste reduction and flow efficiency
n Limited cross service synergies
n Duplicate organizations and multiple organizational overlaps
n Integrated approach
• Operations: Alliance team overall responsible and works as the integrator
• Organizational: Trust-based, “one team” and “best man for the job”
n Minimize number of suppliers (alliance as aggregator)
n Focus on flow efficiency and quality
n Cross service synergies (resources and time)
11
AKER BP THINKING - WATCH OUT
New digital technologies are re-shaping the world
Big data & analytics
Instant analysis of large data
sets to identify new patterns
Cloud computing/storage
Highly scalable, variable-cost
storage & processing on demand
Collaborative technology
platforms
Employee engagement and
collaboration enabled by digital platforms
and communities
3D scanning
Analyses of real-world object or environment
to collect data on its shape / appearance
Additive manufacturing
Print objects & parts on demand with
increasing precision, and range of materials
Mobile connectivity & AR
Virtual telepresence to remove the need for
on-site humans and omnipresent mobile
devices
Unmanned aerial vehicles
Autonomous, low-cost vehicles
able to perform complex tasks
and remove human presence
Sensors
Low cost, low power, connected
sensors capturing spatial and
environment information
Cyber security
Protecting system integrity is a "must-have"
Robotics & automation
Intelligent robots take on
complex assignments
Real-time communication
and tracking
Every asset, equipment,
employee always connected
Virtual reality
Interact more naturally with
digital devices and services
12
0
100
200
300
400
Reduced production/
lifting costs
~50
Total
Annual potential
[USDm] – 2020 budget used as basis
~60
Increased rig uptime
and efficiency
Improved
production rate
~300~120
~70
Reduced CAPEX/
cost-escalation
Red. production/lifting costs: Based on Cisco est. incl. eq. costs. Inc.rig uptime and eff.: Based on Cisco est. but eff. expected to be 2.0x Aker BP with its high CAPEX to Sales ratio. Reduced
CAPEX/cost-escalation assumes USD 1,170m in op. CAPEX (62%) in 2020 and that digitalization can save 5% (PUSH: 15% time and hrs, assumed 30% of total CAPEX). Improved prod. rate:
BP est. 4% increase, Aker BP 4,500m in 2020 revenue whereof 68% op. Source: Cisco – A new reality for Oil & Gas 2015; Credit Suisse (Nov. 16); BP; Aker BP; BCG Analysis
AKER BP DIGITAL THINKING – THE PRIZE
Digitalization could be a >300 USDm opportunity for Aker BP
13
DIGITALIZATION
Digital field models to attack inefficiencies
Modeling and
visualization of
subsurface
Up to date digital
model to simulate and
optimize
Testing of concepts for
subsurface
opportunities
Digital field model with
virtual simulation of
production
Transfer data to start
construction
Exploration OperationsAppraisal FEED Construction
Virtual
digital
world
Physical
world
Commercial
resources
Concept selection on
accurate field model
FID on virtual
oil production
First
oil
Automated
digitalization
Semi automated
value optimization/
concept screening
Semi automated
virtual field design
Physical manufacturing
and building
Highly automated and
robotized operations
and maintenance
Digital concept selection and engineering Digital fabrication Digital operations
3D model
Augmented reality = Decision making
Digital
value
chain
Shorter,
path to
first oil at
lower cost
Digital field model from concept selection through EPCI and field operations enables:
n Re-use of proven concepts and modular designs
n Compressed timelines for engineering & procurement
n Fewer and more efficient interfaces across value chain
n Lower risk, fewer delays and change orders in construction
Horizontal IoT data layer
14
SUMMARY
Et skritt videre...
1 milliard fat produsert på Valhall
n No harm to people or environment
n Access to new acrage
n Radical change and continues improvement
n Value chain innovation
n Productivity and flow efficiency
n Digital E&P
n Collaboration and sharing
Per Harald Kongelf

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Per Harald Kongelf

  • 1. Norsk oljeindustri – ett skritt videre Per Harald Kongelf SVP Improvements AKER BP ASA Offshore Strategikonferansen 6. februar 2017
  • 2. 2 Disclaimer This Document includes and is based, inter alia, on forward-looking information and statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ. These statements and this Document are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about global economic conditions, the economic conditions of the regions and industries that are major markets for Aker BP ASA’s lines of business. These expectations, estimates and projections are generally identifiable by statements containing words such as ”expects”, ”believes”, ”estimates” or similar expressions. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expectations include, among others, economic and market conditions in the geographic areas and industries that are or will be major markets for Aker BP ASA’s businesses, oil prices, market acceptance of new products and services, changes in governmental regulations, interest rates, fluctuations in currency exchange rates and such other factors as may be discussed from time to time in the Document. Although Aker BP ASA believes that its expectations and the Document are based upon reasonable assumptions, it can give no assurance that those expectations will be achieved or that the actual results will be as set out in the Document. Aker BP ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the Document, and neither Aker BP ASA nor any of its directors, officers or employees will have any liability to you or any other persons resulting from your use.
  • 3. 3 Solid footprint covering entire NCS * Phase 1 ABOUT AKER BP Skarv Alvheim Ivar Aasen Johan Sverdrup Ula/Tambar Valhall/Hod Alvheim High production efficiency and low operating cost Ivar Aasen First oil December 2016 Johan Sverdrup World class development with break even price below 25 USD/bbl* Skarv Solid base performance and upside potential Ula/Tambar Late life production with significant upside potential Valhall/Hod 1 billion barrels produced, ambition to produce additional 500 mmbbls
  • 4. 4 AKER BP – WE NEED STEP CHANGE IN COMPETITIVNESS The E&P business is being challenged Climate/Global warming Digitalization Unconventionals Low cost oil & gas from the ME Energy efficiency Competitive renewables and hydrogen society Pricing challenges Structural challenges Business model disruption Electric vehicles Low rate of discovery Consumer behavior Lack of investments
  • 5. 5 AKER BP FOCUSING ON CONTINUES IMPROVEMENT Ivar Aasen successfully delivered but.... Still vast potential for improvement
  • 6. 6 AKER BP BOLD AMBITIONS We belive it is possible... Goal CAPEX break-even <35 USD/bbl OPEX <6-7 USD/bbl Finding cost, after tax <1 USD/bbl Project lead time explo well – first oil 50% of 2015 baseline
  • 7. 7 IMPROVMENT BUT NOT ON THE EXPENCE OF HSE No harm to people or environment
  • 8. 8 AKER BP THINKING Great savings are possible, but requires a new way of thinking Impactoncosts/efficiency Easeofimplementation Renegotiations and cancellations/tuning of activities Cultural change in how we look at improvements and cost Revitalizing the business model – radical changes 20-30% 30-50% >50%
  • 9. 9 AKER BP STRATEGY AND THINKING Aker BP aims to build the benchmark offshore E&P company ... by building the benchmark E&P company together with our suppliers Use the downturn to create a company for the future... n Deliver on existing projects n Realize value of resource inventory n Integrate acquisitions Execute n Deliver on improvement agenda n Strengthen improvement capabilities n Develop new improvement initiatives Improve n Be opportunistic and exploit market opportunities n Selective growth that is value accretive n Secure new exploration acreage Grow n Reorganize the value chain by strategic partnerships and alliances n Digitize the E&P value chain n Value chain based on shared LEAN understanding, toolbox and culture n Flexible business model ready for growth and volatility
  • 10. 10 n Misalignment on incentives resulting in extensive control mechanisms n Thin margins causing fight for margins, moving focus away from quality and waste reduction Alternative set up - Aker BP target STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS Traditional set-up Supplier relations that will maximize value for all parties n Risk sharing of downside n Incentive based contract - well as a service OperationsCommercial Operator (Integrator) OperationsCommercial Alliance model‘Transactional relations’ model Aker BP intends to organize as many supplier relations as possible based on this model n Top down governance (operator instruction based) n Multiple interfaces – up to 60 suppliers on projects/wells n Limited incentives for waste reduction and flow efficiency n Limited cross service synergies n Duplicate organizations and multiple organizational overlaps n Integrated approach • Operations: Alliance team overall responsible and works as the integrator • Organizational: Trust-based, “one team” and “best man for the job” n Minimize number of suppliers (alliance as aggregator) n Focus on flow efficiency and quality n Cross service synergies (resources and time)
  • 11. 11 AKER BP THINKING - WATCH OUT New digital technologies are re-shaping the world Big data & analytics Instant analysis of large data sets to identify new patterns Cloud computing/storage Highly scalable, variable-cost storage & processing on demand Collaborative technology platforms Employee engagement and collaboration enabled by digital platforms and communities 3D scanning Analyses of real-world object or environment to collect data on its shape / appearance Additive manufacturing Print objects & parts on demand with increasing precision, and range of materials Mobile connectivity & AR Virtual telepresence to remove the need for on-site humans and omnipresent mobile devices Unmanned aerial vehicles Autonomous, low-cost vehicles able to perform complex tasks and remove human presence Sensors Low cost, low power, connected sensors capturing spatial and environment information Cyber security Protecting system integrity is a "must-have" Robotics & automation Intelligent robots take on complex assignments Real-time communication and tracking Every asset, equipment, employee always connected Virtual reality Interact more naturally with digital devices and services
  • 12. 12 0 100 200 300 400 Reduced production/ lifting costs ~50 Total Annual potential [USDm] – 2020 budget used as basis ~60 Increased rig uptime and efficiency Improved production rate ~300~120 ~70 Reduced CAPEX/ cost-escalation Red. production/lifting costs: Based on Cisco est. incl. eq. costs. Inc.rig uptime and eff.: Based on Cisco est. but eff. expected to be 2.0x Aker BP with its high CAPEX to Sales ratio. Reduced CAPEX/cost-escalation assumes USD 1,170m in op. CAPEX (62%) in 2020 and that digitalization can save 5% (PUSH: 15% time and hrs, assumed 30% of total CAPEX). Improved prod. rate: BP est. 4% increase, Aker BP 4,500m in 2020 revenue whereof 68% op. Source: Cisco – A new reality for Oil & Gas 2015; Credit Suisse (Nov. 16); BP; Aker BP; BCG Analysis AKER BP DIGITAL THINKING – THE PRIZE Digitalization could be a >300 USDm opportunity for Aker BP
  • 13. 13 DIGITALIZATION Digital field models to attack inefficiencies Modeling and visualization of subsurface Up to date digital model to simulate and optimize Testing of concepts for subsurface opportunities Digital field model with virtual simulation of production Transfer data to start construction Exploration OperationsAppraisal FEED Construction Virtual digital world Physical world Commercial resources Concept selection on accurate field model FID on virtual oil production First oil Automated digitalization Semi automated value optimization/ concept screening Semi automated virtual field design Physical manufacturing and building Highly automated and robotized operations and maintenance Digital concept selection and engineering Digital fabrication Digital operations 3D model Augmented reality = Decision making Digital value chain Shorter, path to first oil at lower cost Digital field model from concept selection through EPCI and field operations enables: n Re-use of proven concepts and modular designs n Compressed timelines for engineering & procurement n Fewer and more efficient interfaces across value chain n Lower risk, fewer delays and change orders in construction Horizontal IoT data layer
  • 14. 14 SUMMARY Et skritt videre... 1 milliard fat produsert på Valhall n No harm to people or environment n Access to new acrage n Radical change and continues improvement n Value chain innovation n Productivity and flow efficiency n Digital E&P n Collaboration and sharing