The document discusses the future of shipping and outlines several trends towards 2020 and beyond. Regulatory pressure is driving changes including alternative fuels like LNG, hybrid fuels, methanol and batteries. Energy efficient technologies through improved design processes using virtual modeling and concurrent engineering are emerging. Operational improvements through performance management, data analytics, and energy efficient operations can help optimize vessel performance. Digital technologies are seen as catalysts to enable smarter shipping through applications like system optimization, smart maintenance, and performance monitoring.

1. DNV GL © 2014 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENERDNV GL © 20141
Ole.Vidar.Nilsen@dnvgl.com
The Future of Shipping
Pori, Finland - June 10, 2015

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The Future of Shipping
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Notes:
Sulphur/emission to air
NOX/emission to air
BW
Other
“New”
Some of the background for “everything”:
Regulatory Pressure –> timeline towards 2020

4. DNV GL © 20144
Notes:
Sulphur/emission to air
NOX/emission to air
BW
Other
“New” (since 2013)
Some of the background for “everything”:
Regulatory Pressure –> timeline towards 2020

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Towards 2020….
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Alternative fuels
 Beyond HFO
 First-movers in
hybrid, battery,
methanol…
Energy efficient
technologies
 Energy efficient
design
 Improved design
process
Operational
improvement
 Energy efficient
operations
Big data, sensors,
connectivity
 Big data opportunities
 More than buzz words

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The future fuel mix will be more diverse
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Traditional fuel
 HFO
 MDO
 MGO
Realistic alternatives
 LNG
 ULHFO/Hybrid fuels
 Methanol
 LPG
 Fully electric
 Hybrid (battery + fuel)
Future options
 Hydrogen
 Gas to liquids (GTL)
 Compressed natural gas
(CNG)
 Wind
 Solar
 Ethanol
 Vegetable oil
 Biogas
 Nuclear

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LNG as fuel – nothing new, or…. ?
“LNG-ready” a feasible option
also for larger vessels
Infrastructure under rapid
development (“chicken &
egg)
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600-700 LNG-as-fuel vessels
by 2020 seems like a realistic
figure
From…:
To…:

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Hybrid ships – a great future
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About 35 in operation or on
order (ferry, tug, PSV)
Pilot projects for hybrid
systems indicate 15% fuel
savings, compared to
conventional systems
Most applicable for vessels
with variable operational
profile and low load
operation

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Battery – Zero emission technology for “special markets”
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Today: 2-3 battery-
only vessels in
operation
2030: “Many”
Battery technology
is becoming cheaper
and more robust
Promising
technology to meet
stricter env.
requirements in
special areas
Enormous interest in
DNV GL’s “Maritime
Battery Forum”
created 2014
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhYaNHx5D00

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Methanol – “More to come”, says Stena Line
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The world’s first methanol
vessel - No sulphur or
particles
Supply issue remains,
however
Conversion costs of existing
vessels less than LNG-as-
fuel conversion

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ReVolt: A Vision for the Future
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Battery powered
Highly Efficient
Autonomous
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhYaNHx5D00

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HYBRID FUELS – ECA compliance ok. But…
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 Ultra low sulphur fuels complying with
the 0.1% sulphur limits
 This new fuel is rumoured to be 10-20%
cheaper than MGO and available
 Fuel is available in several locations
globally
 Operational experience indicate
significant challenges with hybrid fuels –
high focus from industry
 Can become a significant contributor to
SECA solution depending on price and
availability
Price/availability

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Innovation in energy efficient design
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Energy harvesting Innovate hull shapes – and
bio inspired solutions
Design for actual
conditions

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Improved design process – the virtual ship laboratory
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Concurrent system
engineering
Design for actual
and extreme
conditions
Virtual identity Team collaboration
across geographies

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Concurrent system
engineering
Design for actual
and extreme
conditions
Virtual model
identity
Team collaboration
across geographies
Improved design process – the virtual ship laboratory

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Energy efficient operations
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Increased cargo capacity,
adapted to demand
Horizontal and vertical
integration - pooling and
alliances, consolidation of
logistics chains
Performance management –
manage by numbers,
benchmark, cultural
change

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Vertical integration – thinking differently about logistics
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Door-to-door
cost
Carbon
footprint
 Consolidating cargo
 Frequency and efficiency
 Getting the right ship
-70% -25%

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Digital technologies
– a catalyst for smarter shipping
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System optimization – untapped opportunities
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Maximum 30-40%
of energy available
in the fuel is used
Modelling of
advanced data flows
is becoming more
accessible
Used for design,
retrofitting and
operation
optimisation of
ships
Sensors for
monitoring are
becoming more
common – an
enabler for systems
optimisation

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Smart maintenance
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Risk-based
maintenance: a
more precise
estimate of when a
component should
be replaced

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Measure & monitor - Performance management
will become a key driver for competitiveness

Focus on:
 Data quality
 SMART KPIs
 Extensive filtering
 Automated sensor-based
monitoring
Improvement opportunities:
 Capability to optimize
 Improved decision support
 Complete overview
 Increased confidence

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