The document discusses several themes related to hype cycles and new technologies. It notes that hype often generates unrealistic expectations for new technologies and that most technologies take years to become mainstream after initial hype. It provides a graphic illustrating the typical stages in a hype cycle from an initial trigger of hype to a period of disillusionment and eventual acceptance if the technology proves useful. The document advocates allowing time for new technologies to mature rather than expecting immediate results from hyped technologies. It also stresses the importance of experimentation to understand benefits and practical applications of new technologies as they progress through the hype cycle.

1. Themes
A number of them
Richard Adams
@dickyadams

2. Hype
Process
The BIG Issue
Big Data
Shared value
Functionality

3. Hype
And reality

4. Hype Cycle In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically
generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic
expectations. There may be some successful
applications of a technology, but there are A technology reaches the "plateau
typically more failures. of productivity" as the benefits of it
become widely demonstrated and
accepted. The technology becomes
increasingly stable and evolves in
second and third generations. The
final height of the plateau varies
according to whether the
technology is broadly applicable or
benefits only a niche market.
Although the press may have
stopped covering the technology,
some businesses continue through
the "slope of enlightenment" and
experiment to understand the
benefits and practical application of
the technology.
Technologies enter the "trough of
disillusionment" because they fail to
The first phase of a hype cycle is the meet expectations and quickly become
"technology trigger" or unfashionable. Consequently, the press
breakthrough, product launch or other usually abandons the topic and the
event that generates significant press and technology.
interest.

6. We often hype things to ridiculous lengths. The press and
hings do fly particularly the trade press do this. Reading the trade press
you’d be forgiven for thinking your plans were stupidly
behind. They aren't. It takes years for most tech and services to
become mainstream. But, like mobile, which was hyped for a
decade, it took a disruptor, Apple, to change things. Even after
the iPhone I 2007, it was at least 3 years before we hit critical;
mass. Now it’s mainstream.

7. Process
Flexibility

8. “Agile”
click Stage/gate and waterfall processes were too
inflexible for new media businesses so Agile
appeared…but Agile is a developers
approach not a business process approach.
Agile is now being replaced by new mutant
offspring allowing businesses to be truly
agile and to operate in an iterative world.

9. Innovation new.
New processes can combine innovation, agile
development and iteration as part of product
development. They needn’t be onerous and
arcane. These processes encourage
experimentation, iteration and learning
products.

10. Pros and cons
From Wikipedia
New businesses can combine multiple processes to develop something that is their own. All the above are rapid. For the knew learning
organisations use of these processes is crucial.

11. Big Data
Numbers and more

12. Big Data
Big data is poised to
become real and some
sectors are better placed
to use it. The financial
and health sectors for
example already collect
mass data and so does
retail.

13. Data & People Daily
Usage Reads
Weekly
Comments/
Usage
Tags
Monthly
Edits/
Usage
Organises
Rare Advocate/
usage Partner
Businesses need to gather data
and use it by connecting the dots
to understand what type of
interactive customer they are
dealing with
The social graph describes the
relationships between individuals
online, as opposed to the concept of
For
um For
a social network, which describes
s um relationships in the real world. the
s challenge is how to map this and
meaningfully use it.

14. Data & Behaviour
1. Government using nudge behaviour to
reduce fraud
2. Using big data to predict someone’s
health
3. How work will change
Learning what the data tells us about
people is what gives us chance to develop
new insights and understanding and much
more accurately predict behaviour, needs
and wants.

15. The BIG Issue
That concerns us all

16. “Never has so much been known by so
many people about so many other people.”
But how far do we or should we go?
“Privacy”The Dead Past
Find anyone’s email address

17. Shared Value
Real social stuff

18. Shared Impact “Haydn Shaughnessy, who helped put this
Infographic together, describes the three
included social strands, as follows.
#1 Technology — Has been pushing businesses
towards greater openness and collaboration for a
decade. It has its roots in open source, reaching
back to the early 1990s.
#2 Marketing — Since the 1990s, marketers have
been trying to go social, first with loyalty
programs and now with social media.
#3 And then there’s the pure strand: The Social
Enterprise — is reflected in good corporate social
responsibility. That reaches back to the old
Infographic Source: mutuals, organizations that did pretty well
Global Dawn through the recession.
globaldawn.co
The implications are that companies need to
think more broadly about their social business
strategies, and not just confine themselves to
doing social media in the enterprise. In essence,
they need to look at what additional rewards
employees and customers might be looking for,
in return for participation with brands. The
added reward we call “shared value,” indicating
that in a world where the “share” is king (not
“content”), sharing has to have tangible value.”
http://blog.involver.com/2012/03/15/social-
business-and-the-growth-of-shared-value-
infographic

19. Shared Impact

20. Shared Impact

21. Functionality
Impacts of everything

22. SMLXL?
The rise of apps has caused
designers and companies to
revisit their design approaches.
The reduced functionality set
seen on apps has had a
noticeable effect on website
design where many more web
apps are now being used.
The issue when faced with
design is now what services do
people need or want?
Build iteratively and learn.

23. New Economies
Mobile Apps
Cost Capability
Cost Capability
Mobile Websites
Of course we now have sites, portals, phone apps, web apps, smart TV apps
and more… companies now have to do value equations to work out whether
to spend more or less to build more or less functionality. The days of just build
a site are gone..

24. It’s not just mobile
Comparison
And simplification, rationalisation and better design are coming in all areas of
interactive, not just sites. The new windows desktop compared to the old
desktop illustrate this perfectly.

25. Thank you
“You have zero privacy anyway. Get over it.”
•Scott MacNealy, Sun co-founder, 1999
“Real artists ship.”
•Steve Jobs
“The best way to predict the future is to invent it.”
•Alan Kay, PARC, 1971
“I’d shut it down and give the money back to the shareholders.”
•Michael Dell, 1997, referring to Apple

26. * Opportunities
Areas Of With the evolution from “web Areas Of With the evolution from stage/gate
Opportunities analytics” to “digital intelligence”, to a Opportunities through Agile to JFDI the opportunity
For Digital more strategic, business oriented and For PM’s will to become more of a producer.
Analysts (Big) Data expertise.
The primary focus of digital analysts Providing a creative wrapper around
should not be on the lower-layers of projects
infrastructure and tools development.
The Processing: tools such as Tableau, The following Coding: Learn to understand code
following SAS, Cognos and such. points are
points are strong areas of
strong areas opportunities:
NLP: Developing expertise in DATA: Learn to understand trends
of unstructured data analysis and analysis of numbers
opportunities
:
Visualization: dash boarding and Behaviour: Learn about human
more broadly, data visualization behaviour.Anthropology.
techniques

27. * Extra!!! Gartner predictions in 2012
1. By 2016, most consumers in mature markets will consider in-vehicle Web access a key criterion in their automobile purchase.
2. By 2014, major national defaults in Europe will lead to the collapse of more than one-third of European banks.
3. By 2015, new, external social Web and cloud-based services will generate 25 percent of consumer-driven banking products and
services.
4. By 2013, iPad penetration among pharma sales reps will reach 85 percent, then shift to applications that improve delivery and
interaction tracking.
5. By 2016, the iPad will gain less than 50 percent of the K-12 market as CIOs favor devices that are deployed more readily.
6. By 2015, 30 percent of smart grid projects will leverage cloud services to address big data from converging technologies.
7. By 2015, 20 percent of integrated delivery systems will be investing in new healthcare-targeted customer relationship management
(CRM) systems.
8. By 2014, 30 percent of U.S. private healthcare payers will acquire providers, forcing integration of application suites as delivery and
finance merge.
9. By year-end 2014, at least one social network provider will become an insurance sales channel.
10. By 2016, more than 5 percent of searches will be integrated using mobile devices' video/audio sensors instead of typed or spoken
phrases.
11. Through 2015, 80 percent of multichannel implementations will fail because retailers will retain channel- and product-centric strategies.
12. By 2013, government financial sustainability will join cost containment as the top driver and constraint for government IT spending.
13. By 2015, context-aware promotions will comprise 10 percent of convenience item promotional activity among consumer goods
manufacturers in developed markets.
14. Until 2015, ineffective IT/OT management will risk serious failures in more than 50 percent of enterprises, and critical failures in asset-
dependent ones.
15. By 2014, the five largest PLM software providers will make social networking an integral part of their solution.
http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1887014

28. * Extra!!!