By Teevrat Garg 2020 #Infra4Dev Conference: Decarbonizing Infrastructure www.worldbank.org/infra4dev2

1. Decarbonizing Transport: Lightning Talks
Teevrat Garg, UC San Diego
(w/ Sam Asher + Paul Novosad)
Ecological Footprint of Transportation Infrastructure

2. Road Infrastructure Poised to Expand Dramatically
• 16 million miles of roads to be added in the next 30 years (60% above 2010 levels).
• 9 out of 10 roads will be built in developing countries.
• Many of these are homes to the last stands of tropical forests.
• Forests are key to decarbonization (~10-15% of GHG emissions).
• The effect of roads on forest cover is theoretically ambiguous:
• Changes in relative returns to agriculture (-/+)
• Lower transportation costs for timber (-)
• Changes in fuel use (-/+)
• Causal estimation is difficult because of endogenous placement of roads.

3. Context and Research Design
• Rural Roads: India’s PMGSY Program
• Roads allocated to villages based on
population cutoffs.
• Regression discontinuity design.
• Highways: Expansion of 2 main highway
networks:
• Golden Quadrilateral: 80% (95%)
completed by 2004 (2006).
• North-South/East-West Corridors: delayed
onset - 10% completed by 2005.
• Difference-in-Differences design.

4. Rural Roads Have No Effect on Forest Cover.1.2.3.4.5
NewRoad
−200 −100 0 100 200
Population Minus Threshold
.2.3.4.5.6
LogForestCover
−200 −100 0 100 200
Population Minus Threshold

5. Highways Reduce Forest Cover by 17% on average
−.5
0
.5
LogForest
0 50 100 150 200 250
Distance from GQ (km)
2000
2001−2004
2005−2008
2009−2012
−.2
0
.2
.4
LogForest
0 50 100 150 200 250
Distance from NS−EW (km)
2000
2001−2004
2005−2008
2009−2012
Golden Quadrilateral North-South, East-West Corridor

6. Effects of Highways Driven by Forest Industry
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
CoefficientonIndicator1(0−100kmfromGQ)
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
−.2
0
.2
.4
.6
CoefficientonIndicator1(0−100kmfromGQ)
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
Logging Firms Wood-using Firms

7. Conclusion
• 16 million miles of roads to be added in the next 30 years (60% above 2010 levels).
• 9 out of 10 roads will be built in developing countries.
• Many of these are homes to the last stands of tropical forests.
• The effects of roads are heterogenous:
• Rural roads have no effect on forest cover despite leading to exits from
agriculture and improvements in educational outcomes.
• Highways result in expansion of forest cover industries and reduce forest cover.
• SCC = ~25% of fiscal cost, >100% if deforestation is additional.
• Must account for ecological cost as well as fiscal cost.