"Partnering for Impact: IFPRI-European Research Collaboration for Improved Food and Nutrition Security" presentation by Luisa Marelli, European Commission – DG Joint Research Centre (JRC) Institute for Energy and Transport, Sustainable Transport Unit, on 25 November 2013 in Brussels, Belgium.

1. ASSESSING ILUC EMISSIONS IN EU
BIOFUELS LEGISLATION: EC-JRC and
IFPRI COLLABORATION
Luisa Marelli
European Commission – DG Joint Research Centre (JRC)
Institute for Energy and Transport, Sustainable Transport Unit
13 December 2013
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2. 1. Estimating GHG emissions from increased LUC
JRC took IFPRI (2011) cropland expansion results and applied its own
independent methodology
- to distribute land use changes onto different land types
− to estimate the resulting GHG emissions from changes in Soil Organic
Carbon (SOC), Biomass carbon stocks and N2O (Nitrous Oxide) from
mineralized soils
JRC Cropland Spatial allocation Methodology (CSAM)
The new cropland is spatially distributed according to specific criteria
such as:
 Historical trends on cropland expansion
 Agro-ecological suitability of the land for a given crop
 Proximity to similar crops
 Protected areas
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3. JRC and IFPRI used two different methodologies/databases
but found similar GHG emissions
• Biomass carbon
emissions mainly
depend on fraction of
deforestation, and
values are very similar
in the two studies
• Less loss of carbon
from mineral soil in JRC
analysis
• Peat emissions are far
more important (about
50% of total emissions)
in JRC work. JRC used
a more updated
value for peat
emission factor.

4. JRC-SAM vs IFPRI Land use model: crop specific
scenarios – Overall emissions

5. 2. New Sensitivity Analyses on results of
MIRAGE model [2011]
2020 EU
wheat yield
corrected
No
expansion of
‘other
oilseeds’ to
major crops
Freeze food
consumption
The three
effects
combined
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6. 2020 EU wheat yield corrected
REASON
HOW
IFPRI 2011 projections of EU
wheat yield in 2020 were much
higher than the DG-AGRI and
OECD-FAO projections for the
same year
The EU27 wheat yield has been
reduced in the baseline scenario
2020 from 8 t/ha in the 2011 report
to 5.5 t/ha. This now matches the
AG-LINK estimates for 2020.
RESULTS
• Ethanol from wheat scenario
is affected
• The resulting ILUC emissions
and area are moderately
higher than the 2011 values
(+15% and +20%
respectively)
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7. 2020 EU wheat yield corrected
REASON
HOW
IFPRI 2011 projections of EU
wheat yield in 2020 were much
higher than the DG-AGRI and
OECD-FAO projections for the
same year
The EU27 wheat yield has been
reduced in the baseline scenario
2020 from 8 t/ha in the 2011 report
to 5.66 t/ha. This now matches the
AG-LINK estimates for 2020.
RESULTS
• Ethanol from wheat scenario
is affected
• The resulting ILUC emissions
and area are moderately
higher than the 2011 values
(+15% and +20%
respectively)
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8. No expansion of ‘other oilseeds’ to major crops
REASON
HOW
IFPRI 2011 work assumed that
major crops could replace the
crop category “other oilseeds”
as easily as any other arable
crop. The JRC discovered that in
EU, this led to areas of olives
being replaced by grains.
IFPRI has restrained the
expansion of other cropping
activities into “other oilseeds” for
the EU. It avoids the expansion of
major crops into other oilseeds (such
as olive tree).
RESULTS
• Slight effect on the final ILUC emissions for key EU commodities such as
sugar beet, cereals and rapeseed.
• lLUC emissions increase from 0% to 29% compared to the IFPRI 2011
values

9. No expansion of ‘other oilseeds’ to major crops
RESULTS
• Slight effect on the final ILUC emissions for key EU commodities such as
sugar beet, cereals and rapeseed.
• lLUC emissions increase from 0% to 29% compared to the IFPRI 2011
values

10. Freeze food consumption
REASON
HOW
The crop-price increases cause a
reduction in consumption (for
food) as well as an increase in
crop supply. This means that
part of the crop needed for the
biofuel comes from reduction in
the other competing sectors,
principally food consumption,
and this comes free of ILUC.
Food consumption is maintained
constant in household and agrofood sector demand
RESULTS
• Compared to the 2011 report, several crops, except sugar beet and
rapeseed, show an increase in GHG emissions

11. Freeze food consumption
REASON
HOW
The crop-price increases cause a
reduction in consumption (for
food) as well as an increase in
crop supply. This means that
part of the crop needed for the
biofuel comes from reduction in
the other competing sectors,
principally food consumption,
and this comes free of ILUC.
Food consumption is maintained
constant in household and agrofood sector demand
RESULTS
• Compared to the 2011 report, several crops, except sugar beet and
rapeseed, show an increase in GHG emissions

12. Cumulative results
Combining the two main corrections on the 2020 EU wheat yield and the
assumption on the expansion into other oilseeds in EU, the results are:
- Increase of annualised LUC emissions
from 0% to more than 30%
compared to the 2011 report values
- Increase of cropland area from
0% to more than 30%
compared to the 2011 report
values

13. Cumulative results
Combining thethe three effects (EU wheat yield, no expansion into other
all two main corrections on the 2020 EU wheat yield and the
assumptionEU and freeze food), the results are: the results are:
oilseeds in on the expansion into other oilseeds,
Increase of cropland area from
annualised LUC emissions
- Increase of LUC emissions from 30% - -Change of cropland area from -24%
from 3% 100% compared to the
to almost to 60%compared to the
to26% to 140% compared to the
more than 70% compared to
2011 report values
2011 report values
the 2011 report values

14. The JRC is the European Commission’s in-house
science service, and it provides the independent
science for policy decisions
• JRC work on IFPRI-MIRAGE model aims at reducing
uncertainties in ILUC estimates and helping policy
makers in understanding ILUC results
•
JRC is also looking at other models and making
comparative studies, but supports IFPRI work on ILUC
as the most sophisticated for EU biofuels.
13 December 2013
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