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Class 12 Rhodes, Greece LAST LECTURE!!!
Brian David Butler Professor of international finance and global entrepreneurship with Forum-Nexus Study Abroad.  Guest lecturer with the  IQS Business School  of the Ramon Llull University in Barcelona, and the  Catholic University of Milan .  Previously, Brian taught finance, economics and global trade courses at  Thunderbird’s Global MBA  program in Miami, and worked as a research analyst with the  Columbia Business School  in New York City. Brian currently lives in Recife, Brazil where he is teaching classes at the university  Faculdade Boa Viagem . A global citizen, Brian was born in Canada, raised in Switzerland (where he attended international British school), educated through university in the U.S., started his career with a Japanese company, moved to New York to work as an analyst, married a Brazilian, and has traveled extensively in Latin America, Asia, Europe and North America.  [email_address] LinkedIn/briandbutler Skype: briandbutler
Brian Butler is a specialist in international economic analysis, and is founder of the prestigious “GloboTrends“ ( www.globotrends.com ) online economics site, which has been featured as syndicated content on Nouriel Roubini’s RGE Monitor, Emerginvest.com, Business Week Exchange, Wikinvest.com, and other leading news outlets.  http:// globotrends.pbworks.com /  ,  http:// blog.globotrends.com /
Find my slides: ,[object Object]
Lecture Schedule* * Does not include professional visits,  *Subject to change, modification without warning
Team Project ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Grading ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Exam material ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Extra credit on the exam (3 points) ,[object Object],[object Object]
Greece – benefit to being in the Eurozone ,[object Object],[object Object]
Exam question (and in paper!) ,[object Object],[object Object]
My comments ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
From the reading… ,[object Object],[object Object],Economist.com, A special report on the euro area ,  Jun 11th 2009
Heavy cost to exit… ,[object Object],Economist.com, A special report on the euro area ,  Jun 11th 2009
Heavy cost to exit… ,[object Object],Economist.com, A special report on the euro area ,  Jun 11th 2009
Better solutions… ,[object Object],[object Object],Economist.com, A special report on the euro area ,  Jun 11th 2009
[object Object],Economist.com, A special report on the euro area ,  Jun 11th 2009
Fear of Floating “ The financial crisis has made the euro look more alluring” Economist.com, A special report on the euro area ,  Jun 11th 2009
International financial system USA – unique position
What is unique about the USA? ,[object Object],[object Object]
Devalue currency ,[object Object],[object Object],Martin Wolf book, “Fixing Global Finance”
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Exorbitant privilege ,[object Object]
Real threat to the USA ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Why US needs this privilege (low rates, in own currency) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
International Reserves IOU’s
From exam… ,[object Object]
National “Balance Sheet” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Martin Wolf book, “Fixing Global Finance” Must  Balance!! If deficit…  pay out reserves. If surplus.. Build up  reserves.
Foreign reserves = I.O.U’s ,[object Object],[object Object],Martin Wolf book, “Fixing Global Finance”
Foreign reserves = I.O.U’s ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Legacy of the Crises ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Martin Wolf book, “Fixing Global Finance”
Foreign reserves = I.O.U’s  (2008-09) https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2188rank.html
“ rebalancing” world economy
China – USA  ,[object Object]
The two risks to China: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
2 threats: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
2 nd   threat : Inflation ,[object Object]
Inflation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
QUESTION ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Inflation:  bad for banks ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
2 nd   threat (TO) China’s foreign-currency reserves : Inflation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
2 nd   threat (TO) China’s foreign-currency reserves : Inflation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Think about this… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Martin Wolf book, “Fixing Global Finance”
But, that assumes… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],“ Buddy, Can You Spare $5 Trillion?”, John Mauldin, July 10, 2009
“ Buddy, Can You Spare $5 Trillion?”, John Mauldin, July 10, 2009
US government debt ,[object Object]
That’s a lot of debt! ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
But… this is = Threat to China - ,[object Object],[object Object],Martin Wolf book, “Fixing Global Finance”
Question: ,[object Object],[object Object]
Answer: ,[object Object]
Inflation ,[object Object],[object Object]
Inflation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Risks to US ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Risks to US ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Lesson: don’t push China  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Sovereign Wealth funds ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Challenge for China ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Review… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The risk to China: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
US Threat… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Populist fears: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Fixing Global Finance ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Fixing Global Finance ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Extra credit on the exam (3 points) ,[object Object],[object Object]

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Part 12 rhodes finance class summer 2010 forum nexus

  • 1. Class 12 Rhodes, Greece LAST LECTURE!!!
  • 2. Brian David Butler Professor of international finance and global entrepreneurship with Forum-Nexus Study Abroad. Guest lecturer with the IQS Business School of the Ramon Llull University in Barcelona, and the Catholic University of Milan . Previously, Brian taught finance, economics and global trade courses at Thunderbird’s Global MBA program in Miami, and worked as a research analyst with the Columbia Business School in New York City. Brian currently lives in Recife, Brazil where he is teaching classes at the university Faculdade Boa Viagem . A global citizen, Brian was born in Canada, raised in Switzerland (where he attended international British school), educated through university in the U.S., started his career with a Japanese company, moved to New York to work as an analyst, married a Brazilian, and has traveled extensively in Latin America, Asia, Europe and North America. [email_address] LinkedIn/briandbutler Skype: briandbutler
  • 3. Brian Butler is a specialist in international economic analysis, and is founder of the prestigious “GloboTrends“ ( www.globotrends.com ) online economics site, which has been featured as syndicated content on Nouriel Roubini’s RGE Monitor, Emerginvest.com, Business Week Exchange, Wikinvest.com, and other leading news outlets. http:// globotrends.pbworks.com / , http:// blog.globotrends.com /
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  • 5. Lecture Schedule* * Does not include professional visits, *Subject to change, modification without warning
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  • 18. Fear of Floating “ The financial crisis has made the euro look more alluring” Economist.com, A special report on the euro area , Jun 11th 2009
  • 19. International financial system USA – unique position
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  • 46. “ Buddy, Can You Spare $5 Trillion?”, John Mauldin, July 10, 2009
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