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Forum-Nexus Welcome  to Switzerland!!
Brian David Butler Professor of international finance and global entrepreneurship with Forum-Nexus Study Abroad.  Guest lecturer with the  IQS Business School  of the Ramon Llull University in Barcelona, and the  Catholic University of Milan .  Previously, Brian taught finance, economics and global trade courses at  Thunderbird’s Global MBA  program in Miami, and worked as a research analyst with the  Columbia Business School  in New York City. Brian currently lives in Recife, Brazil where he is teaching classes on “Global Entrepreneurship” at the university FBV. A global citizen, Brian was born in Canada, raised in Switzerland (where he attended international British school), educated through university in the U.S., started his career with a Japanese company, moved to New York to work as an analyst, married a Brazilian, and has traveled extensively in Latin America, Asia, Europe and North America.  [email_address] LinkedIn/briandbutler Skype: briandbutler
Find my slides: ,[object Object]
Midterm Exam material (potential) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Expectations: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Required books ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Assigned Readings ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
review ,[object Object]
Discuss Switzerland/ Euro / crisis… ,[object Object],[object Object]
Themes to cover: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Solvency v Liquidity ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Solvency v Liquidity ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Solvent :    not Solvent ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Liabilities  (Borrowing, debt) Equity ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Liabilities  (Borrowing, debt) Equity
PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian Response: “Almost all independent observers of Greece have stressed from the beginning that Greece was facing a  solvency , not a  liquidity  problem. This was also the case 10 years ago with Argentina; a country that had achieved financial stability by entering into a “quasi” monetary union using the US dollar and which had privatised every available public asset.
PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian “ the Greek government is losing control of the streets. As protests turn increasingly ugly, the pursuit of a national political consensus becomes even more elusive. This is especially true if all Mr Papandreou, or another leader, can offer is a step back to a discredited approach that involves sacrifices with no evidence of lasting benefits.”
Solvency v Liquidity ,[object Object],[object Object]
Solvency v Liquidity Timeline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Liabilities  (Borrowing, debt) Equity
Credit bubble led to housing bubble, led to bust… http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200802/r220644_867185.jpg
Credit Crisis timeline – key dates in September ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Solvency v Liquidity Timeline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Questions: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Liabilities  (Borrowing, debt) Equity
Solvency v Liquidity Timeline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Liabilities  (Borrowing, debt) Equity
How about a “Liquidity” crisis? ,[object Object]
How about a “Liquidity” crisis? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The trouble during the crisis… ,[object Object]
[object Object]
International Finance Pyramid of promises
What “promises”? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Martin Wolf, “Fixing Global Finance”… based on McKinsey  “Mapping Global Capital Markets”, 2005
What “promises”? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Martin Wolf, “Fixing Global Finance”… based on McKinsey  “Mapping Global Capital Markets”, 2005
Remember 2 dangers of international finance… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Pyramid of Promises ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Martin Wolf, “Fixing Global Finance”… based on McKinsey  “Mapping Global Capital Markets”, 2005
Pyramid of “promises”? ,[object Object],Martin Wolf, “Fixing Global Finance”… based on McKinsey  “Mapping Global Capital Markets”, 2005
Just how big is the MOUNTAIN of promises…? ,[object Object],data from McKinsey report 2005, " Mapping the global capital market "  and  http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/ Martin Wolf, “Fixing Global Finance”… based on McKinsey  “Mapping Global Capital Markets”, 2005
Size of Finance… ,[object Object],Martin Wolf, “Fixing Global Finance”… based on McKinsey  “Mapping Global Capital Markets”, 2005
Size of Finance… ,[object Object],[object Object],Martin Wolf, “Fixing Global Finance”… based on McKinsey  “Mapping Global Capital Markets”, 2005
Size of Finance… Martin Wolf, “Fixing Global Finance”… based on McKinsey  “Mapping Global Capital Markets”, 2005
Size of Finance… Martin Wolf, “Fixing Global Finance”… based on McKinsey  “Mapping Global Capital Markets”, 2005
Martin Wolf, “Fixing Global Finance”… based on McKinsey  “Mapping Global Capital Markets”, 2005
Size of Finance… Martin Wolf, “Fixing Global Finance”… based on McKinsey  “Mapping Global Capital Markets”, 2005
“ PYRAMID of Promises” ,[object Object],Martin Wolf, “Fixing Global Finance”… based on McKinsey  “Mapping Global Capital Markets”, 2005
“ PYRAMID of Promises” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Martin Wolf, “Fixing Global Finance”… based on McKinsey  “Mapping Global Capital Markets”, 2005
Underneath that “PYRAMID” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Martin Wolf, “Fixing Global Finance”… based on McKinsey  “Mapping Global Capital Markets”, 2005
Fixed, Floating FX discussion…
Exchange Rate Practices Dr. Kishore Dash, January 20, 2007 ,[object Object],[object Object]
Exchange Rate Options Official Dollarization Currency Board Free Float Peg More Flexible Less Flexible Crawling Peg Band Dirty Float Source: Rafael Barraza Dr. Kishore Dash, January 20, 2007
Fixed vs. Flexible exchange rates ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Fixed vs. Flexible exchange rates ,[object Object],[object Object]
Brief History – Key points ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Fixed Fixed Flexible Flexible The gold standard (~1850–1914) Fixed exchange rates during the 1920s Great Depression era Post WWII Bretton Woods / IMF system (1944–1971) 1970’s –today:  since U.S. left the gold/dollar standard ?????
Brief History – Key points ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Fixed Fixed Flexible Flexible The gold standard (~1850–1914) Fixed exchange rates during the 1920s Inter-war period Great Depression era Post WWII Bretton Woods / IMF system (1944–1971) 1970’s –today:  since U.S. left the gold/dollar standard
Brief History – Key points ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
FIXED system…  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
FIXED system… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
FIXED system…  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Fixed vs. Flexible exchange rates ,[object Object],[object Object]
Brief History – Key points ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Fixed Fixed Flexible Flexible The gold standard (~1850–1914) Fixed exchange rates during the 1920s Great Depression era Post WWII Bretton Woods / IMF system (1944–1971) 1970’s –today:  since U.S. left the gold/dollar standard ?????

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Part 7 switzerland - forum nexus finance class summer 2011

  • 1. Forum-Nexus Welcome to Switzerland!!
  • 2. Brian David Butler Professor of international finance and global entrepreneurship with Forum-Nexus Study Abroad. Guest lecturer with the IQS Business School of the Ramon Llull University in Barcelona, and the Catholic University of Milan . Previously, Brian taught finance, economics and global trade courses at Thunderbird’s Global MBA program in Miami, and worked as a research analyst with the Columbia Business School in New York City. Brian currently lives in Recife, Brazil where he is teaching classes on “Global Entrepreneurship” at the university FBV. A global citizen, Brian was born in Canada, raised in Switzerland (where he attended international British school), educated through university in the U.S., started his career with a Japanese company, moved to New York to work as an analyst, married a Brazilian, and has traveled extensively in Latin America, Asia, Europe and North America. [email_address] LinkedIn/briandbutler Skype: briandbutler
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  • 14. PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian Response: “Almost all independent observers of Greece have stressed from the beginning that Greece was facing a solvency , not a liquidity problem. This was also the case 10 years ago with Argentina; a country that had achieved financial stability by entering into a “quasi” monetary union using the US dollar and which had privatised every available public asset.
  • 15. PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian “ the Greek government is losing control of the streets. As protests turn increasingly ugly, the pursuit of a national political consensus becomes even more elusive. This is especially true if all Mr Papandreou, or another leader, can offer is a step back to a discredited approach that involves sacrifices with no evidence of lasting benefits.”
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  • 18. Credit bubble led to housing bubble, led to bust… http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200802/r220644_867185.jpg
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  • 36. Size of Finance… Martin Wolf, “Fixing Global Finance”… based on McKinsey “Mapping Global Capital Markets”, 2005
  • 37. Size of Finance… Martin Wolf, “Fixing Global Finance”… based on McKinsey “Mapping Global Capital Markets”, 2005
  • 38. Martin Wolf, “Fixing Global Finance”… based on McKinsey “Mapping Global Capital Markets”, 2005
  • 39. Size of Finance… Martin Wolf, “Fixing Global Finance”… based on McKinsey “Mapping Global Capital Markets”, 2005
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  • 43. Fixed, Floating FX discussion…
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  • 45. Exchange Rate Options Official Dollarization Currency Board Free Float Peg More Flexible Less Flexible Crawling Peg Band Dirty Float Source: Rafael Barraza Dr. Kishore Dash, January 20, 2007
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