Ireland, PIGS and the eurozone here we areMarkets Beyond
After Greece, Ireland; this now going beyond the means of Europe if Spain and Portugal need to be bailed out. Loans extended to these countries do not solve the root of the problems and the sooner organized negotiations are triggered with creditors rescheduled sovereign debt an,d take an haircut, the better: there is not other way out.
The EUR 100 billion + EUR 780 billion eurozone rescue package has just bought time but not enough to address the fundamental imbalances between euro-zone economies
The Greek 2011 budget failed miserably despite austerity measure; the eurozone continues stubbornly to plug an unpluggable hole since the roots of the problem are not adressed. The worst is to come...
Since the publication in July of stress test for banks in Europe, everything went quiet on the PIGS debt crisis with no much news during the summer. Things however are boiling again and Greek will come back to the forefront of medias sooner rather than later.
The European Council summit brought a "surprisng" conclusion with the agreement on mutualizing EZ banks' rescue; however the roots of the EZ problems are not addressed: economic and competitiveness imbalances.
Eurozone, macro economic imbalances and the bailoutMarkets Beyond
European imbalances at a glance and a new measure of the fragility of countries according to their debt and budget deficits. Greece will need to restructure its debt
The banking crisis in Europe is deep-rooted and will not be solved before toxic assets are written down. In addition, austerity measures will slow down growth which is much needed to alleviate bank's problems.
Ireland, PIGS and the eurozone here we areMarkets Beyond
After Greece, Ireland; this now going beyond the means of Europe if Spain and Portugal need to be bailed out. Loans extended to these countries do not solve the root of the problems and the sooner organized negotiations are triggered with creditors rescheduled sovereign debt an,d take an haircut, the better: there is not other way out.
The EUR 100 billion + EUR 780 billion eurozone rescue package has just bought time but not enough to address the fundamental imbalances between euro-zone economies
The Greek 2011 budget failed miserably despite austerity measure; the eurozone continues stubbornly to plug an unpluggable hole since the roots of the problem are not adressed. The worst is to come...
Since the publication in July of stress test for banks in Europe, everything went quiet on the PIGS debt crisis with no much news during the summer. Things however are boiling again and Greek will come back to the forefront of medias sooner rather than later.
The European Council summit brought a "surprisng" conclusion with the agreement on mutualizing EZ banks' rescue; however the roots of the EZ problems are not addressed: economic and competitiveness imbalances.
Eurozone, macro economic imbalances and the bailoutMarkets Beyond
European imbalances at a glance and a new measure of the fragility of countries according to their debt and budget deficits. Greece will need to restructure its debt
The banking crisis in Europe is deep-rooted and will not be solved before toxic assets are written down. In addition, austerity measures will slow down growth which is much needed to alleviate bank's problems.
‘European financial centres will survive the crisis’ – OPENSALON Jake Fury
European-financial-centres-will-survive-the-crisis%E2%80%99# The Summit on the Global Agenda is the world’s largest brainstorming meeting attened by thought leaders of the World Economic Forum’s Network of Global Agenda Councils.
The EUR 100 billion banks will need to write down on their Greek sovereign debt can be matched via profits, dividends and bonus cuts for many banks in order to abide by Basle III capital ratio rules. A handful of banks will need to go to governments for capital.
This does not however look at the quality of private asset or any default from another peripheral European country.
Current account surplus is a key determinant to bonds market turnaround ita...Markets Beyond
Current accounts are key in determining when an over-indebted country will see it financial situation turning around allowing it to go back to the bond markets under "normal conditions". On this criteria, the discrepancy between Italy and France is startling and not justified by fundamentals: France will be punished by bonds market if nos dramatic action is impletmented by the French Government.
The bundesbank repatriates its gold reservesMarkets Beyond
Is the Bundesbank feeling unease with 2/3 of its gold reserves held abroad? This repratriation is a telling story about Germany's confidence in France and the FED.
‘European financial centres will survive the crisis’ – OPENSALON Jake Fury
European-financial-centres-will-survive-the-crisis%E2%80%99# The Summit on the Global Agenda is the world’s largest brainstorming meeting attened by thought leaders of the World Economic Forum’s Network of Global Agenda Councils.
The EUR 100 billion banks will need to write down on their Greek sovereign debt can be matched via profits, dividends and bonus cuts for many banks in order to abide by Basle III capital ratio rules. A handful of banks will need to go to governments for capital.
This does not however look at the quality of private asset or any default from another peripheral European country.
Current account surplus is a key determinant to bonds market turnaround ita...Markets Beyond
Current accounts are key in determining when an over-indebted country will see it financial situation turning around allowing it to go back to the bond markets under "normal conditions". On this criteria, the discrepancy between Italy and France is startling and not justified by fundamentals: France will be punished by bonds market if nos dramatic action is impletmented by the French Government.
The bundesbank repatriates its gold reservesMarkets Beyond
Is the Bundesbank feeling unease with 2/3 of its gold reserves held abroad? This repratriation is a telling story about Germany's confidence in France and the FED.
Cyprus bail in revisited - consequences for small economiesMarkets Beyond
Cyprus bail-in is spilling over and the 100% of added burden is falling on the country, with 70% of its gold reserves at risk and EUR 5.8 billion withheld from banks depositis.
Small economies with a large financial sector are increasingly bullied by larger countries which are quick to find scapegoats
Greece's race to default and european banks' recapitalizationMarkets Beyond
Greece will default by end of October and the ECB will dramatically expand its balance sheet to provide liquidity to banks and buy Spanish and Italian sovereign debt in the secondary market to maintain financing costs at acceptable levels.
Greece's crisis deepens as fast as its debt. 2011 budget execution is terrible with tax receipts well below plans, and there is no way Greece will get out the crisis without defaulting on its debt obligations one way or an other (the latest idea is to call it "reprofiling"!) .
Greece eurozone and the euro the body is getting really rottenMarkets Beyond
Greece debt trap is inextricable: there is no way out of a default/restructing - debt "reprofiling" is just a joke since it would require 21% compound annual growth for 10 years to go back to 60% debt/GDP ratio.
What is needed to cleap up the eurozone house - clean-up the banks and restru...Markets Beyond
European banks have been very good at lobbying to make sure European countries are baling out Greece and others, whilst our analysis shows that they could sustain a PIGS default.
Dogma continues to govern the eurozone instead of sound governance and pragmatism. The EUR 85 billion rescue package extended to Ireland the rescue package is not a game changer since it does not improve competitiveness and does not reduce the debt overload, to the contrary: liquidity support does not work out insolvency.
The Impact of the current Greek financial woes on the global econo.docxcherry686017
The Impact of the current Greek financial woes on the global economy
Introduction
Soon after the implosion of Wall Street in 2008, Greece became the focal point of Europe’s debt crisis. In 2009, Greece announced its deficit figures have been understated for years. This raised concerns across the globe regarding the financial state of Greece and eventually resulted in shutting Greece out of borrowing funds from the financial markets.
By the spring of 2010, Greece was veering toward bankruptcy, which threatened to set off a new financial crisis. The European Central Bank, The European Commission and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a bailout of about 240 billion Euros to Greece.
The bailouts came with conditions. Lenders imposed harsh austerity terms, requiring deep budget cuts and steep tax increases. They also required Greece to overhaul its economy by streamlining the government, ending tax evasion and making Greece an easier place to do business.
The bailout funds were meant to buy some time to help Greece stabilize its finances and allay fears of the European Union breaking up. Though the funds helped to a certain extent, the Greek economy had shrunk by a quarter and unemployment had risen above 25 percent.
Many Greeks and economists, blame the austerity measures for much of the Greece’s continuing problems. While creditors such as Germany, blame Athens for failing to conduct the economic overhauls required under its bailout agreement. They do not want to change the rules for Greece
If Greece defaults, what will happen to the economy?
In the wake of becoming one of the first developed nations to default on their international financial obligations, Greek citizens are hoping that their government strikes a deal to help save them. What exactly is going on in Greece that would cause the country to default, one may ask? Over the past few years, Greece has not been performing well economically. They have experienced increasing levels of the unemployment rate, and their banks simply have not been able to endure the financial crisis. An already high national debt has continued to build up, to the point that the payments due by Greece are almost un-payable. At the very least, the inability to repay debt is a bad signal to all countries and business relationships that the Greeks were a part of. If a deal is not met to help the Greek economy with their creditors on actions to help prevent the debt from growing, as well as repayment, there can be serious consequences.
Greece could default without exiting the Euro. In this scenario, the European Central bank would have to decide on whether or not they want to continue bailing out Greek banks, or put a complete end to aiding the Greek economy. Greece could leave the Euro, and form its own currency. This undoubtedly would have even more adverse effects on the Greek economy. If leaving the Euro-zone is imminent, citizens would begin taking their Euros out of banks. ...
Whilst successfully passing the stress tests en July, The National Bank of Greece EUR 2.8 billion capital raising announcement this week confirms the lack of credibility of the tests.
Eurozone falling chickens choice internal or external devaluationMarkets Beyond
The political and economic backround in Europe is awful and no good choice is left to solve the huge imbalances between countries: external or internal devalutation.
Whatever the route followed it will translate into a fall in standard of living of Europeans. The path followed by European politicians for the past 4 years has led to a dead end and they will soon have to decide which of two tough routes to follow..
French presidential elections showed a strong following for anti-eurozone candidates, and even stronger for anti-austerity only EU/ECB policy.
This will have consequences for th futre of the euro in a context where the Europe is heading back in recession and Spain is in deep trouble. France is also facing very strong social and economic challenges ahead.
The economic situation in Europe worsens: France's performance is catastrophic and Greece's whist improvin,g remains in negative territory. Europe has not addressed the roots of its failure and will continue to be under market's pressure.
The magnificent 7 and equity markets review 11Markets Beyond
2011 was a bumby year for financial markets and 2012 will be no less hectic. However the US economic picture is improving and as written in early 2011 no double dip to be expected but for FED policy folly.
Global imbalances remain, but the eurozone is where lies the deepest problems which have not been properly addressed.
Remain invested in high yielding equities / net cash companies with a strong franchise and look at strong brands in fast growing economies; stay clear from the bond market and financials.
Numbers announced by European leaders concerning the private sector participation to the rescue do not add up: the total losses would amount to EUR55 bn, far from the EUR100 bn trumpeted.
Who should be single A rated france or italyMarkets Beyond
Italy have been for months under pressure from markets and France relatively unscattered even if froa few weeks its spreads have increased; according to numerous economic indicators France should hardly be better rated than Italy and does not deserve a AAA rating.
After being saved in October 2008, Dexia is finally doomed and will end-up split: it is the French part which is the dead body with it huge exposure to local authorities.
Its demise will not however induce a spillover on other bnaks: their own exposure to toxic asset will do the job for the one which cannot recapitalize.
This week EU and IMF are discussing with Greece to assess whether budget deficit reduction and structural reforms to be implemented are sufficient to release EUR 8 billion of aid in October in order to avoid a default.
This article reviews numerous dysfunctions in Greece.
The eurozone is increasingly becoming a one for each and none for all zone which is understandable from the point of view of virtous Europe. Finland is firing the first shot with a private bi-lateral agreement with Greece to guarantee its share in the Greek bailout n°2. The meeting between Sarkozy and Merkel was a farce aimed at their own internal political corners and the banking sector is getting really shattered today.
what is the best method to sell pi coins in 2024DOT TECH
The best way to sell your pi coins safely is trading with an exchange..but since pi is not launched in any exchange, and second option is through a VERIFIED pi merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and pioneers and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive amounts before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade pi coins with.
@Pi_vendor_247
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
How to get verified on Coinbase Account?_.docxBuy bitget
t's important to note that buying verified Coinbase accounts is not recommended and may violate Coinbase's terms of service. Instead of searching to "buy verified Coinbase accounts," follow the proper steps to verify your own account to ensure compliance and security.
Exploring Abhay Bhutada’s Views After Poonawalla Fincorp’s Collaboration With...beulahfernandes8
The financial landscape in India has witnessed a significant development with the recent collaboration between Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank.
The launch of the co-branded credit card, the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card, marks a major milestone for both entities.
This strategic move aims to redefine and elevate the banking experience for customers.
Introduction to Indian Financial System ()Avanish Goel
The financial system of a country is an important tool for economic development of the country, as it helps in creation of wealth by linking savings with investments.
It facilitates the flow of funds form the households (savers) to business firms (investors) to aid in wealth creation and development of both the parties
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.DOT TECH
Where can I sell my pi coins at a high rate.
Pi is not launched yet on any exchange. But one can easily sell his or her pi coins to investors who want to hold pi till mainnet launch.
This means crypto whales want to hold pi. And you can get a good rate for selling pi to them. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor below.
A vendor is someone who buys from a miner and resell it to a holder or crypto whale.
Here is the telegram contact of my vendor:
@Pi_vendor_247
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
1. http://marketsandbeyond.blogspot.com/
http://www.pcgwm.com/
Euro-zone bank's stress test: stressfull for Europe?
1. Euro zone banks in stress
Last week European Union’s decision to publish the results of stress tests on the region’s
banks was more or less imposed by the Spanish government that unexpectedly pledged to
publish results on Spanish individual banks, becoming the first European government to
do so.
I welcome more transparency and it is the only way to fend off rumors that markets are
prone to amplify. As usual, the devil will however be in the details, the quality of the test,
the amount of disclosure and the number of banks included. So far, it seems that only the
tests on the 25 largest banks will be disclosed; but what about the Cajas in Span and
Landesbanken in Gerrmany that are in trouble?
I have discussed several times challenges European countries are facing with their over-
indebtedness. This is compounded by inadequate banks' shareholders funds, in particular
with respect to their exposure to euro-zone sovereign debt and the private sector. The
banks were indeed happy to earn a bit of extra yield on supposedly risk-free assets and
loaded up their balance sheets with the weaker countries’ government debt. I doubt this
debt is marked-to-market but held to maturity instead.
The market realized this, which explains the difficulty banks have to obtain short-
term financing, the interbank and commercial paper markets have frozen again which
translated in the surge both in short-term financing and cash deposits at the ECB in the
recent past.
One may wonder who is going to buy Goverment bonds but if banks buy and immediately
re-sale to the ECB in a way to avoid no loss for banks (or pre-agreed sales at pre-agreed
prices?); in some ways banks would act as an agency broker for the ECB.
Contrarily to the US, European banks on the continent did not clean their
balance sheets in 2008 and have remained over-leveraged. They need to be
recapitalized, then the market will be convinced that there is no longer a
solvency issue.
1
2. http://marketsandbeyond.blogspot.com/
http://www.pcgwm.com/
2. French and German banks exposure
The total exposure of banks in the euro zone to Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain
amounted to USD 1,579 billion at the end of 2009, or 2/3 of all international banks'
exposure (I bet it is higher today), Spain representing nearly half of the total. French and
German banks were the most exposed with respectively USD 493 billion and USD 465
billion, and USD 248 billion and USD 202 billion to Spain. The exposure of French
and German banks to Greek and Spanish government debt is USD 79 billion
and USD 56 billion.
2
3. http://marketsandbeyond.blogspot.com/
http://www.pcgwm.com/
The combined exposures of German, French and Belgian banks to the public
sectors of Spain, Greece and Portugal amounted to 12.1%, 8.3% and 5.0% of
their Tier 1 capital. By comparison, the combined exposures of Italian, Dutch and Swiss
banks to the same public sectors were equal to 2.8%, 2.7% and 2.0%.
A collapse of the Club Med PIGS would be disastrous for the German, French
and Belgium banking sector (please note that French banks have an exposure of USD
301 billion to Belgium, by far the largest creditors).
3. Will the dark scenario materialize?
The BIS conducted a study comparing current stress on markets with the 2007-2009
financial crisis.
The current market stress has been associated with the same increase in equity volatility as
in the second half of 2007, but Libor-OIS spreads have moved up more slowly. Despite the
recent rise to around 30 basis points, three-month US dollar Libor-OIS spreads remain
well below their levels from August 2007 onwards. The current rise in the VIX initially
followed the July 2007 trajectory, but then jumped sharply, as it did in September 2008.
While cross-currency basis swaps are signalling difficulties for banks seeking to raise US
dollars, the limited participation at US dollar auctions held by the ECB, the Bank of
England and the Swiss National Bank suggests that the problem is more about
counterparty credit risk than access to foreign currency funding. In contrast to July 2007,
the euro-US dollar basis swap began the recent period at a level suggesting that stress was
already present in cross-currency funding markets. The current departure point was
similar to that of early September 2008, but the spread has widened by much less this
time in response to worsening market conditions.
There are similarities to 2007 but not enough evidence to conclude on a soon
coming crisis, based on this analysis.
3
4. http://marketsandbeyond.blogspot.com/
http://www.pcgwm.com/
The continued stress on the CDS spreads is however more worrisome:
Greece, Spain, Belgium and France are reaching new highs either in absolute
terms or spread with Germany or both.
4
5. http://marketsandbeyond.blogspot.com/
http://www.pcgwm.com/
From left to right and top to bottom: Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, France.
This reflects deep uncertainty about refinancing problems for Spain on markets and
continued doubts about the solvency of Greece, and the impact this would have on banks
most exposed to the sovereign debt of these countries.
5
6. http://marketsandbeyond.blogspot.com/
http://www.pcgwm.com/
In July, there are large euro zone sovereign financing in the turn of EUR 230
billion, including EUR 32 billion for Spain and EUR 79 billion for France (Belgium
will have EUR 21 billion in September at a time when the Government should be formed
and when Belgium takes the helm of the European Council; this may be tricky if the
situation deteriorates in Southern Europe and France, and if the new government is not
formed or if Belgium goes towards a separation between Flemish and Wallons splitting the
country in two).
My guess is that stress tests will be release just before these financings to show that
everything is fine with the banking sector, - oops, for the 25 banks reviewed, and what
about the rest (Cajas and Landesbanken in particular)? President Sarkozy of France, said
that not everything should be disclosed; if information are retained from public scrutiny,
expect a new and maybe fatal downleg for the banking sector and the euro.
The euro is political monster and will be defended tooth and nail by euro zone politicians,
like any dogma. I however believe that facts are always right in fine and therefore I expect
a new crisis to emerge in Europe within the coming months, possibly as early as July.
Source:
Bank for International Settlements: International banking and financial market
development - Quarterly review
http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1006.pdf
Bank for International Settlements: International banking and financial market
development - Statistical annex
http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qa1006.pdf
6