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Parallelism,20160222-pdd-forum-p1-Indra-Adnan.ppt
- 1. SOFT IS THE NEW HARD: MOVING BEYOND ‘CHAOTIC PLURALISM’ NATO PRESENTATION 20/02/16 INDRA ADNAN: SOFT POWER NETWORK
- 2. From roots to real grass
- 3. The soft to hard power continuum
- 5. The soft power strategy of the non-state actor 1.ATTENTION: think beyond the pale 2.NARRATIVE: reframing the past, re-imagining the future 3. ATTRACTION: multiple entry points 4. INFLUENCE: resonate with needs 5. SHAPE THE SPACE (FOR LIMITING STATE ACTION)
- 7. SECURITY MEANING AND PURPOSE ACHIEVEMENT PRIVACY ATTENTION (giving and receiving) STATUS BELONGING AUTONOMY INTIMACY What consumerism and ISIL have in common: understanding of emotional needs
- 8. How to make a terrorist
- 9. Map of anti Iraq war protests Map of the 41m Avaazers Map of Occupy Protests 2011
- 10. IA@softpowernetwork.com +44 (0)20 7443 9417 +44 (0)7785 770424 @indraadnan www.indraadnan.com
Editor's Notes
- Thank you for inviting me to speak today – in fact, to return to speak to you since, as some of you know, I gave a presentation to the Public Diplomacy department in Brussels four years ago on a similar theme. It was a rather robust discussion, but I hope that I have been invited again because some of the predictions I made then have been proven correct. For those who were not present, I did a quick overview of how Joseph Nye’s concept of smart power – with soft power acting as a back up – or ballast - for hard power within a largely hard powered global culture, was now out of date. Instead, with the rise of the non-state actor, I argued that soft power was fast becoming the context within which we operated and hard power was an actor within that global culture. Smart power today is almost entirely digitally and network defined: hard power must act within that reality, to make what difference it can.
- What has changed since 2012? To put it simply, a global revolution of connectivity has occurred. We all agree that information is power and whereas once, not so long ago, information was shared vertically – with those in power deciding who to share with – today information is shared horizontally in peer to peer networks. What we call soft power – the powers of attraction – is transmitted through relationship, not always friendship but between those who share emotions, needs, wants. What we were looking at in 2014 was grassroots activism, uprisings like the Arab Spring and the beginnings of new forms of global governance – transnational networks using petitions sites and youtube to make viral appeals. Today, some of those activists and uprisings have manifest as political parties capable of winning elections democratically – Syriza in Greece, Podemos and Ciudadanos in Spain, Pirate Party in Iceland, SNP in Scotland. Others have manifested as game changing terrorist networks such as ISIL. All, through the smart use of soft power, are capable of changing the global political weather – seizing the headlines, causing leaders to react, exciting both fear and a new confidence amongst the people. All believe that ‘real change is possible’: not because of their hard power, but because of their ability to shape the political agenda. As we gather today, the UK, Europe, US are all challenged by peoples’ movements which arose from the grassroots to challenge the 2-3 party. Left v Right dominance of the 20C.
- We might well ask, is hard power still relevant? Yes, of course: as the impact of global networks slowly rises, itstill appears largely as – what academics call – chaotic pluralism. Too many voices, many different levels of capability, and infinite diversity of interests abound. In the midst of this hard power looks like an effective tool of control. What we see in Syria today is a global hub of competing agendas, histories and cultures. The global response runs the whole range form hard to soft power –military intervention, sanctions, diplomacy, public diplomacy, cultural diplomacy - but the hard powers, guns and money, are still the overwhelming choice of the state.
- Viewed from past experience, these instruments of state – vertically managed – move slowly. Hard power is slow to act, its actions having long term effects that are hard to quantify. The softer powers rely heavily on institutions, research, incrementalism. Simon Anholt once said it takes 20 years to change an ordinary person’s perception of a country, no matter what nation branding is occurring. But if you take the same tools in the hands of the non-state actors and everything speeds up. Hard power is rarely in their hands, but think of the impact of a beheading, a terrorist bomb, individual wealth spent politically? Soft power in the hands of the non-state actors however, shapes the media space. Because of the speed of interraction, every good or wrong move by an opponent is amplified, framed, used to their advantage in a second. You are watching them, but they are watching you far more responsively.
- The mistake would be to think of this ‘chaotic pluralism’ as something that lacks strategy or cannot be controlled. There is always a control centre – even it is simply in the heart of a single activist. In fact, it is best understood as the way a charismatic person, a precocious child or a skilled parent might act. Anyone who understands the power of relationship has soft power. Read slide. ATTENTION: think beyond the pale NARRATIVE: reframing the past, re-imagining the future ATTRACTION: multiple levels of entry INFLUENCE: resonate with needs SHAPE THE SPACE (FOR LIMITING STATE ACTION)
- I recently sat in the House of Commons listening to Linda Robinson, Senior International Policy Analyst at the Rand Corporation bring us up to date on whether or not we were winning against ISIL. She was very impressive relating the multiple levels of operation currently being undertaken by those active in Iraq and Syria. However, she admitted her abiding concern was that no matter how many ISIL soldiers they managed to kill, their numbers never seemed to deplete on the ground. The reason being that on a daily basis, hundreds of people – mostly young people – are leaving the comfort of their homes to join the band of nihilistic terror merchants. The power of their attraction - their soft power – makes them like the Pied Piper, mesmerising not just the rats, but innumerable innocent children too.
- I have heard many theories about the nature of this attraction: many are explicitly religious, political, cultural, most presume a level of stupidity on the part of the recruit. All of this has truth. And yet there is something much more simple at the core of attraction – particularly for young people – which is that, from the moment we are born, we are driven by emotional needs. And that getting these needs met is our prime drive through life. For that reason, empathy is a crucial skill for soft power and any soft power intervention because unless we can understand what drives our enemies, we cannot offer them an alternative.
- In a recent study by Oxford academic Elizabeth Kendall, she found that the most effective recruiting tool for Jihadists was poetry. “The power of poetry to move Arab listeners and readers emotionally, to infiltrate the psyche and to create an aura of tradition, authenticity and legitimacy around the ideologies it enshrines make it a perfect weapon for militant jihadist causes.” Within the intimate space between a person and their screen, hard power - a bomb, a drone attack – is all too easily reframed and turned into a recruiting tool for any terrorist.
- So where does that leave us - who want to use soft power to spread the good word, protect ourselves against violence, promote a benign globe? We have to up our own game on all fronts. If soft power is authenticity – Challenge ourselves on the strength and appeal of our own story. Work to understand not just the actions but the motivations of others and then be prepared to engage. Work through networks, distribute the leadership and the resources, be less of a spider, more of a starfish. Last year’s 3 day summit at the White House on Countering Violent Extremism went some way along this path, engaging local communities and university students in peer to peer campaigns, reaching out to those vulnerable to radicalisation. The prize for best campaign was won by the Lahore University of Management Sciences students, many of whom themselves were considered targets themselves before they began. The title was From Apathy to Empathy. No doubt the images and tweets of those young people, inspired by the President to take responsibility themselves, developing national and international networks of relationships is the kind of soft power counter attack we might develop.