Presentation on PTWC products and operations to the seismologist staff at the USGS National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) on May 14, 2015

1. Pacific Tsunami
Warning Center
INTRODUCTION TO ENHANCED
PACIFIC PRODUCTS and OPERATIONS
14 May 2015 @ USGS NEIC
Brian Shiro (brian.shiro@noaa.gov)

2. PTWC History
▶ Established in 1949
(following 1946 tsunami)
▶ International center for
Pacific since 1968
(following 1960 tsunami)
▶ Interim center for Indian
Ocean 2005-2013
(following 2004 tsunami)
▶ Interim center for
Caribbean Sea
(since 2007)
▶ Moved from Ewa
Beach to Ford Island
(in 2015)
1946 Tsunami in Hilo1960 Tsunami in Japan2004 Tsunami in ThailandCaribbean Tsunami PotentialPTWC’s Old Location
PTWC scientist staff tripled to 12 in 2005,
allowing for 24x7 shift/standby operation.

3. Areas of Responsibility
Hawaii
Guam/CNMI
Samoa
Puerto Rico / VI
PTWC’s domestic local warning areas

4. International Tsunami
Warning Systems

5. Types of PTWC Messages
Domestic (U.S.)
▶ Hawaii
▶ American Samoa
▶ Guam and CNMI
▶ Puerto Rico and VI
(NTWC currently)
International
▶ Pacific Ocean
countries
▶ Caribbean Sea
countries
Tsunami Warning
Tsunami Advisory
Tsunami Watch
Tsunami Information
Statement
Tsunami Threat Message
(major threat)
Tsunami Threat Message
(coastal threat)
Tsunami Threat Message
(marine threat)
Tsunami Information
Statement (no threat)

6. Domestic Messages
Tsunami Warning Potential tsunami with significant widespread
inundation (forecast >1 m) is expected in < 3 hr.
• Actions: Evacuate low-lying coastal areas, move
ships to deep water if there is time to safely do so.
Tsunami Advisory Potential tsunami may produce strong currents or
waves dangerous to those in or near the water
(forecast 0.3-1 m).
• Actions: Close beaches, evacuate harbors, move
ships to deep water if there time to safely do so.
Tsunami Watch Issued for an event which may later impact the area
in 3-6 hr.
• Actions: Be prepared to act in case the event is
upgraded.
Tsunami Information
Statement
An earthquake has occurred with no destructive
tsunami threat (forecast <0.3 m) or is expected >6 hr.
• Actions: None

7. International Messages
Tsunami Threat
Message
(major threat)
Issued to areas having a coastal forecast > 3 m
within 3 hr from earthquake magnitude >=7.9.
• Actions: Evacuate low-lying coastal areas, move
ships to deep water if there is time to safely do so.
Tsunami Threat
Message
(coastal threat)
Issued to areas having a coastal forecast 1-3 m
within 1000 km of the earthquake magnitude 7.6-7.8.
• Actions: Evacuate low-lying coastal areas, move
ships to deep water if there is time to safely do so.
Tsunami Threat
Message
(marine threat)
Issued to areas having a coastal forecast 0.3-1 m
within 300 km of the earthquake magnitude 7.1-7.5.
• Actions: Close beaches, evacuate harbors, move
ships to deep water if there time to safely do so.
Tsunami Information
Statement
(no threat)
Issued to areas having a coastal forecast < 0.3 m
and a preliminary earthquake magnitude 6.5-7.0.
• Actions: None

8. Int’l Messages Then & Now
Before Oct 2014
▶ Text only
▶ Forecast tsunami
arrival times
▶ Places assigned
Warning or Watch
alert status
▶ Some conflict with
national alert levels
▶ General response
guidance
▶ Very conservative
(over-warning)
After Oct 2014
▶ Text, graphics, & stats
▶ Forecast tsunami times
& coastal amplitudes
▶ Only Threat Level
information given (no
alert status)
▶ Reduces conflict with
national alert levels
▶ More specific
response guidance
▶ More precise
(less over-warning)

9. Operations Overview

10. Inouye Regional Center
▶ Ford Island,
Pearl Harbor
(35 acres)
▶ 2 historical
hangers
joined by a
modern
structure
▶ 315,000 ft2
space with
large atrium
▶ Exhibits
▶ 700 staff
▶ LEED certified PTWC is located on the third floor.
PTWC

11. PTWC Operations Process
TWC’s prioritize speed over accuracy to determine
preliminary earthquake parameters as rapidly as possible.
0-5 min
Preliminary
Seismic
Analysis
5-10 min
Initial
Tsunami
Message
10-20 min
Continued
Seismic
Analysis
20-30 min
Tsunami
Forecast
Analysis
30-33 min
Supplemental
Tsunami
Message
33 min - 2 hr
Sea Level
Gauge
Analysis

12. Preliminary Seismic Analysis
>600 stations
from IRIS,
USGS, IMS, etc.
0-5 min
Preliminary
Seismic
Analysis
5-10 min
Initial
Tsunami
Message
10-20 min
Continued
Seismic
Analysis
20-30 min
Tsunami
Forecast
Analysis
30-33 min
Supplemental
Tsunami
Message
33 min - 2 hr
Sea Level
Gauge
Analysis

13. Stations and Response Time
Sardina et al. 2011
from >70 min in 1992 …
… to <5 min in 2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
PTWCMessageDelay(min) The US tsunami warning centers’ (TWCs) have as their official primary
responsibility to warn the public about the threat of tsunamis potentially
generated worldwide. For this purpose they operate similarly to a
seismological observatory in that scientists locate seismic events and
estimate their magnitude. Unlike traditional seismic observatories,
however, their mission requires the TWCs to determine the earthquake
parameters as rapidly as technically possible. Estimation of the
earthquakes’ location and magnitude subsequently leads to both the
evaluation of their tsunami generating potential and a course of action
based on pre-established criteria, as illustrated in Table 1 for the Pacific
Basin. Relying on these criteria means that to issue a tsunami warning for
the Pacific region it suffices to determine whether or not a shallow (less
than 100 km depth) earthquake’s epicenter lies under or near the sea, and if
its magnitude crosses the warning threshold, in this case magnitude 7.6 and
above for the Pacific Basin.
The TWCs have gradually adopted an operational model that sacrifices
some accuracy of the preliminary earthquake parameters for the needed
response speed. The critical character of their mission have also justified
the TWCs sending their preliminary event parameters even ahead of the US
institution considered authoritative regarding earthquakes, in this case the
NEIC. During the last decade the US TWCs have in fact achieved
processing and warning speeds that made some official directives obsolete
sooner than expected. As influencing these operational improvements we
can mention the following factors:
• An increasing density of the available seismic networks worldwide.
Figure 1 illustrates the number and type of seismic stations available to
the TWCs from 1992 to 2011. For many years the TWCs did not
actually import all the available seismic data into their systems. In 1998,
for instance, the PTWC ingested into its systems data from about two
dozen of the 93 seismic stations available. As shown in Figs. 1 and 2,
however, since 2004 the PTWC has more than doubled the number of
seismic stations it monitors in near-real time.
• The adoption of faster magnitude estimation methods such as the
broadband P-wave moment magnitude (Mwp) after Tsuboi et al., 1995
[1], 1999 [2]. The method has a tendency to incur larger magnitude
underestimations for great earthquakes, as documented by Whitmore et
al, 2002 [3], and Lomax and Michelini , 2009 [4]. Notwithstanding, the
Mwp magnitude scale does not in fact saturate for mega earthquakes, as
shown by Hara and Nishimura, 2011 [5], and still allows the estimation
of an earthquake’s size with sufficient accuracy to determine whether or
not its magnitude crosses the tsunami warning thresholds.
• An improved IT infrastructure, from faster computers with expanding
memory and storage, to faster and more reliable internet connections.
Most traditional seismic observatories operate guided by a set of
operational considerations that place parametric accuracy and catalog
completeness, not extra speed, as their main priority. During this inherently
hasten process, how much accuracy do the TWCs actually relinquish to
gain a lot in response speed, and vice versa? Without analyzing a data set
that allows to actually quantify and measure these variables the question
remains without a valid answer.
By operating under the imperative of speeding up their seismic analyses
a great deal, the TWCs have rather inadvertently accumulated a lot of
information characterizing the quality of increasingly faster earthquake
parametrizations. These data’s rather unique characteristics stem from the
fact that while obtaining it the TWCs have systematically violated several
of the earthquake processing rules considered as standard seismological
practice. This list of “transgressions” include using Mwp, a non-standard
magnitude estimation method, as the main technique applied to estimate
the preliminary magnitudes, and sending messages containing hypocenter
determinations with more than 180 degrees of maximum azimuth gap.
These set of conditions motivated us to seize this rare opportunity to
evaluate the quality of faster than normal earthquake parametrizations,
assess their reliability, and make some recommendations regarding the
daily operations of the tsunami warning centers.
15:00
20:00
25:00
essageDelay(mm:ss)
220
2:33
13:26
6:02
5:42
1:51
235
3:02
13:40
6:59
6:44
1:59
231
1:22
15:28
7:36
7:18
2:14
301
2:39
17:54
8:24
7:54
2:21
268
5:00
22:55
10:19
9:54
3:07
203
2:24
30:53
11:56
11:44
3:49
198
6:14
32:57
13:29
12:56
3:56
118
4:48
24:18
13:02
13:21
3:39
N 84
Min 6:00
Max 38:17
Mean 14:06
Median 13:53
Std 4:30
15:00
20:00
essageDelay(mm:ss)
N
M
M
M
M
S
05:00
10:00
15:00
20:00
25:00
PTWCMessageDelay(mm:ss)
12/31/03
12/30/04
12/30/05
12/30/06
12/30/07
12/29/08
12/29/09
12/29/10
12/29/11
05/01/03
08/31/03
04/30/04
08/30/04
04/30/05
08/30/05
04/30/06
08/30/06
04/30/07
08/30/07
04/29/08
08/29/08
04/29/09
08/29/09
04/29/10
08/29/10
04/29/11
08/29/11
2003 2004 2005 2006
220
1:53
16:14
6:29
6.05
2:20
20112010200920082007
235
3:09
16:24
8:00
7:23
2:33
231
04:08
24:18
9:23
8:45
2:48
301
4:53
34:34
10:39
10:09
3:13
268
5:19
25:16
12:36
11:56
3:25
203
5:16
31:42
13:05
12:42
3:51
196
6:54
32:18
13:03
12:48
3:22
118
6:33
29:52
13:07
12:38
4:29
N 84
Min 5:57
Max 20:17
Mean 12:51
Median 12:46
Std 3:21
More Bandwidth
00:00
05:00
10:00
15:00
20:00
PTWCMessageDelay(mm:ss)
05/01
N
M
M
M
M
S
PTWCTWC
Observatory Message Delays
Introduction
by V.H.R. Sardiña, N.C. Becker,
S.D
EPARTMENT OF COM
M
ER
0-5 min
Preliminary
Seismic
Analysis
5-10 min
Initial
Tsunami
Message
10-20 min
Continued
Seismic
Analysis
20-30 min
Tsunami
Forecast
Analysis
30-33 min
Supplemental
Tsunami
Message
33 min - 2 hr
Sea Level
Gauge
Analysis

14. Stations and Response Time
Sardina et al. 2011
0-5 min
Preliminary
Seismic
Analysis
5-10 min
Initial
Tsunami
Message
10-20 min
Continued
Seismic
Analysis
20-30 min
Tsunami
Forecast
Analysis
30-33 min
Supplemental
Tsunami
Message
33 min - 2 hr
Sea Level
Gauge
Analysis
Becker et al. 2010

15. Seismic Analysis Steps 1
1. Event detection
2. Page to duty
scientists
3. Pick review
4. Locate/relocate
5. MwP review
6. Send PDL and
observatory
message
0-5 min
Preliminary
Seismic
Analysis
5-10 min
Initial
Tsunami
Message
10-20 min
Continued
Seismic
Analysis
20-30 min
Tsunami
Forecast
Analysis
30-33 min
Supplemental
Tsunami
Message
33 min - 2 hr
Sea Level
Gauge
Analysis

16. Initial Tsunami Message
0-5 min
Preliminary
Seismic
Analysis
5-10 min
Initial
Tsunami
Message
10-20 min
Continued
Seismic
Analysis
20-30 min
Tsunami
Forecast
Analysis
30-33 min
Supplemental
Tsunami
Message
33 min - 2 hr
Sea Level
Gauge
Analysis
EQ
>100km,
inland,
or
M6.5-7.0
Information
Statement
M
7.1-7.5
<300
km
away
Marine Threat
(local)
Information
Statement
M
7.6-7.8
<1000
km
away
Coastal Threat
(region)
Information
Statement
M >=
7.9
<3 hr
away
Major Threat
(basin)
Information
Statement
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
N
N
N
N
N
N
Initial tsunami
messages are
based on earthquake
information and
expected tsunami travel times only.
Domestic:
Warning <3hr
Watch 3-6hr

17. 0-5 min
Preliminary
Seismic
Analysis
5-10 min
Initial
Tsunami
Message
10-20 min
Continued
Seismic
Analysis
20-30 min
Tsunami
Forecast
Analysis
30-33 min
Supplemental
Tsunami
Message
33 min - 2 hr
Sea Level
Gauge
Analysis
Message
Example
IOC Technical Series, 105
page 18
APPENDIX II. EXAMPLES OF PTWC NEW ENHANCED PRODUCTS FOR THE PTWS
A. Tsunami Information Statement (no tsunami threat)
a. Initial Product (text only)
i. Text Product
ZCZC
WEPA42 PHEB 010008
TIBPAC
TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
0008 UTC WED OCT 1 2014
...TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT...
**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****
THIS STATEMENT IS ISSUED FOR INFORMATION ONLY IN SUPPORT OF THE
UNESCO/IOC PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING AND MITIGATION SYSTEM AND IS
MEANT FOR NATIONAL AUTHORITIES IN EACH COUNTRY OF THAT SYSTEM.
NATIONAL AUTHORITIES WILL DETERMINE THE APPROPRIATE LEVEL OF
ALERT FOR EACH COUNTRY AND MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL OR MORE REFINED
INFORMATION.
**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****
PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------
* MAGNITUDE 6.7
* ORIGIN TIME 0000 UTC OCT 1 2014
* COORDINATES 20.0 SOUTH 173.4 WEST
* DEPTH 178 KM / 111 MILES
* LOCATION TONGA
EVALUATION
----------
* AN EARTHQUAKE WITH A PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE OF 6.7 OCCURRED
IN THE TONGA ISLANDS AT 0000 UTC ON WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 1 2014.
* BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA... THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT
FROM THIS EARTHQUAKE.
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
-------------------
* NO ACTION IS REQUIRED.
NEXT UPDATE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
--------------------------------------
* THIS WILL BE THE ONLY STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL DATA ARE RECEIVED OR THE SITUATION CHANGES.
* AUTHORITATIVE INFORMATION ABOUT THE EARTHQUAKE FROM THE U.S.
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT
EARTHQUAKE.USGS.GOV/EARTHQUAKES -ALL IN LOWER CASE-.
* FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT THIS EVENT MAY BE FOUND AT
PTWC.WEATHER.GOV AND AT WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.
* COASTAL REGIONS OF HAWAII... AMERICAN SAMOA... GUAM... AND
▶ Header
▶ Headline
▶ Target Area
▶ Preliminary Earthquake
Parameters
▶ Evaluation
▶ Recommended Actions
▶ Potential Impacts
▶ Additional Information
• Tsunami Forecasts
• Tsunami Observations

18. Message Dissemination
0-5 min
Preliminary
Seismic
Analysis
5-10 min
Initial
Tsunami
Message
10-20 min
Continued
Seismic
Analysis
20-30 min
Tsunami
Forecast
Analysis
30-33 min
Supplemental
Tsunami
Message
33 min - 2 hr
Sea Level
Gauge
Analysis
AFTN
airports
GTS/NMC
international
NWW
USA & Canada
Web, RSS
public
HAWAS
Hawaii
NAWAS
USA & Canada
Telephone
warning points
FAX
warning points
Soc. Media
public
Email
public
PDL
USGS, public
EMWIN
warning points
SMS
RANET
Text Phone
Internet
TEX & CAP
public

19. Seismic Analysis Steps 2
1. Event detection
2. Page to duty
scientists
3. Pick review
4. Locate/relocate
5. MwP review
6. Send PDL, Obs msg
7. Revise Location
8. Mm, Mw
9. Theta
10. W-phase CMT
0-5 min
Preliminary
Seismic
Analysis
5-10 min
Initial
Tsunami
Message
10-20 min
Continued
Seismic
Analysis
20-30 min
Tsunami
Forecast
Analysis
30-33 min
Supplemental
Tsunami
Message
33 min - 2 hr
Sea level
gauge
monitoring

20. Tsunami Forecast Analysis
Run forecast model with W-phase CMT or other
earthquake source as input. Calculate coastal
threats and prepare to issue message update.
0-5 min
Preliminary
Seismic
Analysis
5-10 min
Initial
Tsunami
Message
10-20 min
Continued
Seismic
Analysis
20-30 min
Tsunami
Forecast
Analysis
30-33 min
Supplemental
Tsunami
Message
33 min - 2 hr
Sea Level
Gauge
Analysis
GCMT W-phase

21. Subsequent tsunami
messages are based
primarily on tsunami
forecasts.
Suppl. Tsunami Messages
CM
T
>100km,
inland, or
M6.5-7.0
Information
Statement
M >=
7.1
forecast
<0.3 m
Information
Statement
forecast
0.3-1 m
Marine Threat
(local)
forecast
1-3m
Coastal Threat
(region)
forecast
>3m
Major Threat
(basin)
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
N
N
N
N
Domestic:
Advisory <3hr
Watch 3-6hr Domestic:
Warning <3hr
Watch 3-6hr
0-5 min
Preliminary
Seismic
Analysis
5-10 min
Initial
Tsunami
Message
10-20 min
Continued
Seismic
Analysis
20-30 min
Tsunami
Forecast
Analysis
30-33 min
Supplemental
Tsunami
Message
33 min - 2 hr
Sea Level
Gauge
Analysis

22. Issue Enhanced Products
0-5 min
Preliminary
Seismic
Analysis
5-10 min
Initial
Tsunami
Message
10-20 min
Continued
Seismic
Analysis
20-30 min
Tsunami
Forecast
Analysis
30-33 min
Supplemental
Tsunami
Message
33 min - 2 hr
Sea Level
Gauge
Analysis
To Public:
▶ Text bulletin
To Tsunami Warning Focal
Points:
▶ Deep-Ocean Tsunami Amplitude
Forecast Map
▶ Coastal Tsunami Amplitude
Forecast Map
▶ Coastal Tsunami Amplitude
Forecast Polygon Map
▶ Coastal Tsunami Amplitude
Forecast KMZ
▶ Table of Forecast Statistics for
Regional Polygons
Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission
Technical Series
105
User’s Guide
for the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center
Enhanced Products for the Pacific
Tsunami Warning System
August 2014
UNESCO
http://ptws-ptwcnewproducts.info

23. Deep-Ocean Forecast
▶ Tsunami Travel
Time contours
(assumes
point source)
▶ Color range
scaled so
red / white
show maxima
▶ Shaded
textures show
bathymetry
0-5 min
Preliminary
Seismic
Analysis
5-10 min
Initial
Tsunami
Message
10-20 min
Continued
Seismic
Analysis
20-30 min
Tsunami
Forecast
Analysis
30-33 min
Supplemental
Tsunami
Message
33 min - 2 hr
Sea Level
Gauge
Analysis

24. Coastal Forecast
▶ Green’s Law used
to propagate
deep-ocean
forecast to coast
▶ Tsunami Travel Time
contours (assumes
point source)
▶ Tsunami Wave
Amplitudes at
designated coastal
forecast points
▶ Shaded textures
show energy
distribution
▶ Regional plots too:
0-5 min
Preliminary
Seismic
Analysis
5-10 min
Initial
Tsunami
Message
10-20 min
Continued
Seismic
Analysis
20-30 min
Tsunami
Forecast
Analysis
30-33 min
Supplemental
Tsunami
Message
33 min - 2 hr
Sea Level
Gauge
Analysis

25. Coastal Forecast Polygons
▶ Threat level
for
designated
forecast zones
▶ Color range
scaled to
match threat
levels
▶ Grey textures
show
bathymetry
0-5 min
Preliminary
Seismic
Analysis
5-10 min
Initial
Tsunami
Message
10-20 min
Continued
Seismic
Analysis
20-30 min
Tsunami
Forecast
Analysis
30-33 min
Supplemental
Tsunami
Message
33 min - 2 hr
Sea Level
Gauge
Analysis

26. Coastal Forecast KMZ
0-5 min
Preliminary
Seismic
Analysis
5-10 min
Initial
Tsunami
Message
10-20 min
Continued
Seismic
Analysis
20-30 min
Tsunami
Forecast
Analysis
30-33 min
Supplemental
Tsunami
Message
33 min - 2 hr
Sea Level
Gauge
Analysis
Google Earth: User can zoom into areas of
interest and click for detailed point forecast.

27. Forecast Statistics Table
0-5 min
Preliminary
Seismic
Analysis
5-10 min
Initial
Tsunami
Message
10-20 min
Continued
Seismic
Analysis
20-30 min
Tsunami
Forecast
Analysis
30-33 min
Supplemental
Tsunami
Message
33 min - 2 hr
Sea Level
Gauge
Analysis
Max, Mean, Median, Standard deviation of
coastal and deep-ocean (offshore) forecasts.
PTWC TABLE OF FORECAST STATISTICS FOR REGIONAL POLYGONS - RUN ID 20140816233614
(for internal use only - not for distribution)
Earthquake - Origin: 10/01/2014 00:00:00 UTC Coordinates: 45.2N 151.3E Depth: 028km Magnitude: 8.6
This table is issued for information only in support the UNESCO/IOC Pacific Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System and is
meant for national authorities in each country of that system. National authorities will determine the appropriate
level of alert for each country and may issue additional or more refined information.
Actual amplitudes at the coast may vary from forecast amplitudes due to uncertainties in the forecast and local
features. In particular, maximum tsunami amplitudes on atolls will likely be much smaller than the forecast indicates.
Coastal Forecast (meters) Offshore Forecast (meters) Total
Region_Name Maximum Mean Median STD Maximum Mean Median STD Points
Urup_Etorofu_Kunashiri_Shikotan_and_Habomai_Islands 20. 5.46 3.25 4.55 13. 2.55 1.84 2.49 101
Kuril_Islands 13. 3.37 2.44 2.67 5.9 1.43 1.10 1.07 95
Wake_Island 5.8 5.77 5.84 0.09 0.97 0.93 0.90 0.03 3
Society_Islands 4.4 2.24 1.89 0.88 1.8 0.57 0.48 0.33 35
Midway_Island 3.3 2.32 1.82 0.72 1.9 1.33 1.04 0.41 3
Northwestern_Hawaiian_Islands 3.1 2.07 1.98 0.58 1.4 0.90 0.99 0.41 5
East_Coast_of_Japanese_Main_Islands 3.0 1.37 1.21 0.39 3.0 0.86 0.70 0.48 407
Marshall_Islands 2.9 2.31 2.14 0.36 1.6 0.81 0.62 0.53 4
Bougainville_Papua_New_Guinea 2.9 1.49 1.09 0.82 2.0 0.74 0.60 0.43 75
Hawaii 2.8 1.27 1.21 0.40 1.4 0.45 0.42 0.20 147
Cook_Islands 2.7 1.64 1.35 0.78 0.35 0.22 0.20 0.09 3
Kosrae_State_Micronesia 2.7 2.69 2.69 0.00 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.00 1
West_Coast_of_Japanese_Main_Islands 2.7 0.56 0.20 0.70 2.1 0.34 0.12 0.42 465
Phoenix_Islands_Kiribati 2.6 2.61 2.61 0.00 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.00 1
Line_Islands_Kiribati 2.5 1.46 1.09 0.74 0.90 0.39 0.15 0.36 3
Choisel_to_Philip_Solomon_Islands 2.5 0.99 0.76 0.51 1.6 0.44 0.35 0.29 339
Sea_of_Okhotsk_Coast_of_Sakhalin_Russia 2.3 1.71 1.71 0.36 2.0 1.21 1.19 0.23 150

28. Sea Level Gauge Analysis
0-5 min
Preliminary
Seismic
Analysis
5-10 min
Initial
Tsunami
Message
10-20 min
Continued
Seismic
Analysis
20-30 min
Tsunami
Forecast
Analysis
30-33 min
Supplemental
Tsunami
Message
33 min - 2 hr
Sea Level
Gauge
Analysis
>600 stations
from GLOSS,
NOAA, etc.
Deep-Ocean Coastal

29. Sea Level Gauge Analysis
0-5 min
Preliminary
Seismic
Analysis
5-10 min
Initial
Tsunami
Message
10-20 min
Continued
Seismic
Analysis
20-30 min
Tsunami
Forecast
Analysis
30-33 min
Supplemental
Tsunami
Message
33 min - 2 hr
Sea Level
Gauge
Analysis
first arrival time
wave amplitude
wave period
can downgrade from
warning to advisory

30. Moving Forward

31. Tsunami Event XML (TEX)
Problem: Legacy text bulletins are difficult and
brittle to parse.
• Solution: We have adopted an XML-based standard
called “TEX” (Tsunami Event XML).
• TEX helps integrate TWC information.
• Other products like CAP, IPAWS/WEA are easy to
generate from TEX through XSL/XSLT.
• Could be integrated with PDL and/or integrate
QuakeML into the schema
• In development since 2010
• Current version 2.0.1 (22 October 2014)

32. Tsunami Event XML (TEX)
<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" ?>
<tsunamiEvent xmlns:geo="http://www.w3.org/2003/01/geo/wgs84_pos#">
<TWCBulletin>
<TWCEventID>803322</TWCEventID>
<WMOID source="PAAQ">WEPA40</WMOID>
<WMOCenterID>PHEB</WMOCenterID>
<WMODateTimeGroup>251907</WMODateTimeGroup>
<AWIPSID>TSUPAC</AWIPSID>
<bulletinNumber>1</bulletinNumber>
<bulletinName>Tsunami Bulletin Number 1</bulletinName>
<issuingCenter>Pacific Tsunami Warning Center/NOAA/NWS</issuingCenter>
<bulletinIssueTime>2010-10-25-T19:07:36Z</bulletinIssueTime>
<bulletinIssueTimeString>Issued at 1907Z 25 OCT 2010</bulletinIssueTimeString>
<messageUpdates></messageUpdates>
<preHeadline><![CDATA[This bulletin applies to areas within and bordering the
Pacific Ocean and adjacent seas, except Alaska, British Columbia, Washington, Oregon,
and California. ]]></preHeadline>
<bulletinAreas>
<segment id="1”>
<headline><![CDATA[A Tsunami Warning is in effect for: RUSSIA, and JAPAN. ]]></
headline>

33. Tsunami.gov
Problem: TWC websites are different and
confusing.
• Solution: Merge NOAA tsunami websites in one
place at www.tsunami.gov
• Users don’t have to know about complicated areas
of responsibility.
• Emergency mangers can log in to get our enhanced
products, and national focal points can manage
their contact information.
• Site is driven by TEX products from the TWCs.
• In development since 2011
• Contracted to ERT with planned delivery late 2015

34. Tsunami.gov

35. Thank You
Brian Shiro
brian.shiro@noaa.gov
NOAA Pacific Tsunami Warning Center
1845 Wasp Blvd, Bldg 176
Honolulu, Hawaii 96818

36. Extra Slides

37. RIFT Model Assumptions
RIFT = Real-time Inundation Forecast of
Tsunamis model
RIFT uses Green’s Law, which assumes:
• Acoast = Aoffshore * (Doffshore / Dcoast)1/4
• Coastline is linear and exposed to open ocean.
• Tsunami waves near coast are 1-D plane waves.
• No significant wave reflections
• No significant dissipation by turbulence
• Bathymetry varies slowly compared with tsunami
wavelength.
• Cliff boundary condition (coast is a vertical wall).
Wang et al. 2012

38. Limitations of RIFT model
Some caveats of RIFT include:
• Initial results can vary by a factor of 2 due to
uncertainties in magnitude, depth, and assumed
mechanism of earthquake. Later results contrained
by Wphase are more reliable.
• Green’s Law can overestimate coastal amplitude for
small islands (< 30 km size).
• Green’s Law can underestimate wave amplitude in
resonant harbors.
• Coastal amplitude forecast is not necessarily
indicative of inundation depth, which is a function of
local topography.
Wang et al. 2012