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Rémy Pascal
Principal Analyst, Mobile Infrastructure
askananalyst@omdia.com
mmWave Market Outlook
and Trends
© 2022 Omdia
mmWave Market Outlook and Trends | April 2022
Contents
© 2022 Omdia
• Omdia view and recommendations
• Introduction, ecosystem, and market trends
• Market size, market shares, and forecast
• Regional markets
• Appendix
Page 2
Omdia view and
recommendations
© 2022 Omdia
Page 3
mmWave Market Outlook and Trends | April 2022
Key takeaways and Omdia view
• Millimeter waves (mmWave) are radio frequencies from 30GHz to 300GHz. By simplification, the mobile industry often uses the term “mmWave” to designate the frequency bands
between 24GHz and 42GHz that have been identified by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) for allocation to mobile services. This is the definition used in this report.
• Deployments in mmWave bands represent a small share of all 5G deployments. The market size for mmWave equipment in 2021 was:
– $745m in revenue
– 58,000 radio units
• By 2026, Omdia expects mmWave equipment to represent a market of:
– $2.38bn in revenue
– 236,000 radio units
• The US and Japan have been and will remain key driving forces for this segment. In both countries, all operators have launched mmWave-based services. In the US, the three main
operators are offering 5G mmWave services with a relatively strong smartphone lineup and availability in at least 70 cities.
• Other markets are also starting to deploy mmWave equipment including Australia, Italy, Singapore, and South Korea, and as more countries allocate mmWave spectrum in the coming
years, the segment will mature and progressively depend less on only a small number of geographies.
• Ericsson and Samsung are the market leaders, thanks to their strong positions in the US (Verizon especially) and in Japan (KDDI and NTT DOCOMO especially), but as more operators
deploy networks using mmWave spectrum, market shares will be more distributed and are expected to get closer to overall 5G market shares.
© 2022 Omdia
Page 4
mmWave Market Outlook and Trends | April 2022
Recommendations
• Recommendations for service providers
– Service providers should secure spectrum when available for free or at a reasonable price. The availability of spectrum is different in each country but can often range between
400MHz and 800MHz per operator, or even more, and it represents a massive addition to any operator’s spectrum portfolio. In the near future, sub-6Ghz spectrum will provide
sufficient capacity for most cell sites of most operators around the world. However, as data traffic continues to grow, even if at a slower pace, additional network capacity will be
needed and mmWave will be a welcome addition to the spectrum mix. Omdia forecasts that the global cellular data traffic will be 3.4x higher in 2026 than in 2021.
– When assessing the business case, operators should consider not only enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB) but also fixed wireless access (FWA) and B2B applications, whether
those are running on the public network or private networks. In addition to the access domain, mmWave can also be used to backhaul other bands, mmWave itself with integrated
access and backhaul (IAB), as well as Wi-Fi.
– The device ecosystem, thanks to the efforts of companies like Qualcomm, is maturing, and operators also have a role to play in creating the demand that justifies the investment in
said ecosystem.
• Recommendations for vendors
– mmWave will represent a small but non-negligible market for vendors in the coming years, and mmWave should be a part of every vendor’s portfolio. The portfolio should include a
variety of solutions including macro and small cells, outdoor and indoor, and access and backhaul.
– mmWave alone may not generate a huge revenue, but the competitiveness of a RAN vendor portfolio is also gauged on its ability to support less mainstream spectrum bands and
to address a variety of scenarios.
– Performance, footprint, and total cost of ownership (TCO) are the key purchasing decision criteria, but power efficiency is another increasingly important consideration.
© 2022 Omdia
Page 5
Introduction,
ecosystem, and
market trends
© 2022 Omdia
Page 6
mmWave Market Outlook and Trends | April 2022
Key challenges and benefits of
mmWave
• mmWave bands are not a coverage solution: mmWave bands are characterized by
relatively limited propagation, high sensitivity to obstacles, and poor in-building
penetration, and no one can argue with that. Therefore, they have not played a major
role in the early stages of 5G.
• mmWave bands are a capacity and offload solution: mmWave also presents some
advantages, the main one being the massive amount of spectrum available. How much
spectrum is available varies by country but it is often 5–10x more than in mid-band. As
such, mmWave bands should be treated like a capacity solution and assessed based on
the share of the total traffic (or 5G traffic) that they carry. Verizon’s CEO commented
that more than 20% of traffic traveled over mmWave in its “established” mmWave
markets in 3Q21, and that it would have shifted 5–10% of all its traffic in urban areas
onto mmWave by the end of 2021. When data traffic is offloaded to mmWave carriers,
it also frees up capacity in sub-6Ghz for the rest of the users.
• Higher peak and average throughputs: In live mmWave networks, single-user peak
speeds up to 2Gbps and more are measured, and though as always it depends on the
amount of spectrum put to work and the network load, those peak speeds are typically
between 5–10x faster than speeds achieved on sub-6GHz 5G. The multiplier is typically
within the same range for average speeds. In that sense, mmWave, not because of its
characteristics per se, but simply because of the amount of spectrum available, is
essential to achieve the gigabit(s) speeds promised by 5G.
© 2022 Omdia
Page 7
Challenges Solutions
Path loss
(attenuation of
the signal as it
propagates)
Using more antenna elements, higher gain antennas, and narrow beams
to overcome loss.
Short wavelengths mean that the physical size of antennas is small, so
more antenna elements can be packed in small radio equipment and
help overcome this challenge.
Using repeaters to amplify the signal and expand coverage.
Blockage
(sensitivity to
obstacles)
Planning mmWave networks and selecting deployment locations
carefully. New 3D planning tools have been developed for this purpose.
Line of sight when available is ideal and provides an undeniable
advantage, but reflection and diffraction can also help to achieve decent
results.
Poor in-building
penetration
Deploying indoors.
Depending on the signal strength and material to penetrate the signal
can sometimes travel from outdoors to indoors. Stronger losses are to be
expected but this does not mean that mmWave is useless.
Costly
Conducting location-specific cost analysis. Deploying mmWave is not
systematically more (or less) costly than other options available.
High capacity potentially enables the support of multiple use cases at the
same time in access and backhaul, which can also help to improve the
business case.
Key challenges and solutions
Source: Omdia © 2022 Omdia
mmWave Market Outlook and Trends | April 2022
Scenarios and use cases for
mmWave
© 2022 Omdia
Page 8
• As seen previously, mmWave bands are not a solution for coverage and nationwide
deployments, instead they are a solution for capacity and localized deployments.
Therefore, some of the most attractive scenarios for mmWave deployments are:
– Very dense to dense urban areas: Where the need for additional capacity is more
urgent and where the network grid density is higher, making it easier to deploy on
existing sites. In such areas, the compactness of the mmWave equipment is an
additional advantage.
– Fixed wireless access: Using mmWave 5G as an alternative to fiber where and when
it is not economical or practical to deploy fiber. Omdia sees 5G as a complement, not
a replacement to fiber.
– Venues and high-traffic locations: For example, stadiums, airports, rail and subway
stations, malls, convention centers, concert halls, and campuses, among others.
mmWave can also be used for high-capacity temporary networks for events (sports
competitions, festivals, etc.) as well as during emergencies or disasters.
– Enterprise services: Whether they run on the public network or on a dedicated
private network. The technology has, for example, been tested in smart factories and
logistics hubs. Also in offices, and probably not whole office buildings, but high traffic
areas such as cafeterias or auditoriums, for example.
– Backhaul: In addition to the access domain, mmWave can also be used for backhaul.
Particularly with integrated access and backhaul (IAB), the same mmWave spectrum
and equipment can be used for both access and backhaul, typically because fiber is
not available or too costly to use in that location. mmWave can also be used to
backhaul other bands and Wi-Fi.
Dense urban areas
Fixed wireless access
Venues and high-traffic
locations
Enterprises and private
networks
Backhaul
Main mmWave use cases
Source: Omdia © 2022 Omdia
mmWave Market Outlook and Trends | April 2022
mmWave spectrum allocation
• More countries allocate mmWave spectrum: mmWave spectrum has already been
allocated in dozens of countries including some of the most technologically advanced
markets in each region such as the US, Australia, Japan, South Korea, and Finland. The
table on the right lists some of these countries, but this list is not comprehensive. There
are also many more countries that are in the process of allocating the spectrum or of
conducting consultations. Only some countries do not have any plans.
• Spectrum bands specified by 3GPP: Includes bands n257 (26.5–29.5GHz), n258 (24.25–
27.5GHz), n259 (39.5–43.5GHz), n260 (37–40GHz), and n261 (27.5–28.35GHz).
• Spectrum allocation does not guarantee wide-scale deployments: The examples of
South Korea and Hong Kong show that despite early spectrum allocations and
deployment obligations, it can take time for the spectrum to be put to work, especially
if mmWave has to compete for capex budget with low- and mid-bands. Spectrum is
necessary but not sufficient for mmWave to become mainstream.
• mmWave will be combined with other bands: mmWave bands are not to be operated
in isolation from the rest of the network. They will be combined with mid-bands
through new radio dual connectivity (NR-DC) for enhanced coverage and performance,
and numerous operators around the world are currently conducting trials.
mmWave spectrum allocation in selected countries
Country/territory Spectrum band Amount of spectrum (MHz)
Australia 26GHz 2,400
Brazil 26GHz 2,600
Chile 26GHz 1,200
Denmark 26GHz 2,850
Finland 26GHz 2,400
Hong Kong 28GHz 1,200
Italy 26GHz 1,000
Japan 28GHz 1,600
Singapore 26GHz 3,200
South Korea 28GHz 2,400
Taiwan 28GHz 1,600
Thailand 26GHz 2,600
UAE 26GHz 2,000
Uruguay 28GHz 850
US 24GHz, 28GHz, 37GHz, 39GHz, and 47GHz
700 in 24GHz
850 in 28GHz
3,400 in 37GHz, 39GHz, and 47GHz
Source: Omdia © 2022 Omdia
© 2022 Omdia
Page 9
mmWave Market Outlook and Trends | April 2022
Network equipment trends (1/2)
© 2022 Omdia
Page 10
Area Description
Network equipment vendor
support
Information collected for Omdia’s 2021 and 2022 vendor landscape reports show that the top 10 RAN vendors have commercially available mmWave
solutions. Not all vendors have the same breadth of solutions.
Support by spectrum band
Leading vendors have products for the main mmWave spectrum bands defined by the 3GPP, i.e., n257 (26.5–29.5GHz), n258 (24.25–27.5GHz), n260 (37–
40GHz), and n261 (27.5–28.35GHz). Only n259 (39.5–43.5GHz) is not supported.
Product portfolios and type
There are a variety of solutions including compact small cell-like access units (combining antenna, radio, and baseband into one box) for deployment on
street lamps or utility poles for example, and macro active antennas connected to a separate baseband unit. In 2022, Omdia expects vendors to continue
expanding and enriching their portfolio, especially with indoor solutions.
Product performance and
specifications
As with other spectrum bands, vendors are continuously introducing enhancements and new generations of products with typically higher capacity and
wideband support (sometimes full-band, i.e., 3GHz for n257 or n258), as well as enhanced MIMO (multiple input, multiple output) and beamforming
capabilities. Each 3GPP release introduces enhancements for mmWave such as improved beamforming reliability, selection and management for
enhanced coverage and performance, power saving features, expanded spectrum support, and more. Continuous improvements make today’s mmWave
more attractive than when the technology was first introduced in 2018.
Form factor
Size and weight are important considerations when deploying in dense urban scenarios and in-building. Thanks to mmWave’s short wavelengths, products
are compact (generally below 15kg, and for the small cells type they are below 6kg for outdoor products and below 4kg for indoor solutions). Omdia
expects to see further improvements. Vendors with in-house capabilities and control over their silicon have an advantage over the others.
Power efficiency
Power efficiency is now a consideration for all network products, and mmWave solutions are no exception. An additional consideration for indoor
deployment is low acoustic noise for areas like offices or libraries (<40dBa).
Price
Based on limited information, the price of mmWave equipment seems to have diminished since the early versions were launched and as volumes started
to increase. Cheaper solutions are key to a wider adoption; however, Omdia is concerned by the shortages and inflation of material costs.
Source: Omdia © 2022 Omdia
mmWave Market Outlook and Trends | April 2022
Network equipment trends (2/2)
• Repeaters
– Repeaters are expected to play a bigger role for mmWave than for low- and mid-bands as they can help to overcome some of mmWave’s limitations.
– Repeaters receive a signal from the donor antenna, then they amplify and re-transmit it. They do not add capacity to the network, but enable the expansion of coverage, in a more
cost-effective manner than new base stations. Repeaters may be cheaper but should not be thought of as very low-cost solutions. According to interviews conducted by Omdia for
this report, each mmWave repeater could cost between $4,000 and $8,000 in North America.
– Several repeater companies have been associated with Verizon’s mmWave deployment including FRTek, Pivotal Commware, and SureCall. In February 2022, Pivotal Commware
announced the commercial launch of its Echo 5G Boost FWA subscriber repeater for low emissivity glass (low-e) windows, which it describes as a “customer-installable, on-the-
window, precision beamforming repeater designed to counteract mmWave penetration, reflection, and structural shadowing losses.”
– In other parts of the world, Telstra also said it uses repeaters in central business districts of the cities where the operator has deployed mmWave. Telstra commented that “the
portfolio [of main vendors] is not as rich in terms of repeaters.” This is an opportunity for challengers.
– However, repeaters have a tendency to amplify everything (including noise and interference) and this is why 3GPP has been discussing the concept of smart(er) repeaters, which
unlike traditional repeaters would only amplify the desired signal.
• Reconfigurable intelligent surfaces (RISs)
– RIS is another concept that has gained interest recently. RISs are controllable smart surfaces with reflective, refractive, or absorption characteristics that can be integrated into
everyday objects (walls, windows, poles, etc.) as components of the radio network, between base stations and the end-user device. The technology is not specific to mmWave but,
like repeaters, it could be of particular interest for this segment, enabling the expansion and enhancement of coverage.
– RISs were considered for 3GPP’s Release 18, and then abandoned, but they could make a comeback in future releases.
© 2022 Omdia
Page 11
mmWave Market Outlook and Trends | April 2022
Device availability and shipments
• Availability of devices
– By the end of 2021, there were approximately 100 devices supporting at least one
mmWave band commercially available, compared to only 40 at the end of 2019. This
is relatively modest when compared to the overall 5G device ecosystem; yet, it shows
that this ecosystem is progressively growing with the iPhone and flagship Samsung
phones now supporting mmWave in some markets.
– The most supported band is n261 (27.5–28.35GHz).
– Qualcomm has been a key supporter of mmWave since the very early stages and is
expected to continue actively supporting the device ecosystem, not only in terms of
smartphones, but also customer premises equipment (CPE) for FWA, hotspots,
laptops, and modules for enterprise applications. mmWave 5G standalone (SA)
support is expected in 2022 and will enable more services and use cases including for
enterprise customers.
• Smartphone shipments
– Omdia estimated that 0.4% of all smartphones shipped in 2019 supported at least
one mmWave band, followed by 3% in 2020 and 6% in 2021 (preliminary estimates).
This is in comparison to 1%, 20%, and 40% of the smartphones shipped in those
years that supported 5G.
– Omdia forecasts that in 2026, 87% of smartphones shipped will support 5G and 57%
will support mmWave.
© 2022 Omdia
Page 12
Market size, market
shares, and
forecast
© 2022 Omdia
Page 13
mmWave Market Outlook and Trends | April 2022
Market size and market shares
• mmWave represents only a small percentage of the 5G market: Omdia estimates that
in 2021 mmWave equipment represented a market of $745m and 58,000 radio units.
The $745m represented 2.6% of the 5G NR market and 1.6% of the total RAN market.
• A market dependent on a small number of operators: mmWave is a relatively small
segment of the 5G market, but it should not be neglected by vendors, especially if they
are operating in countries where the spectrum has been, or is planned to be, allocated.
Currently, the US and Japan are the two main destinations for mmWave product
shipments, but other countries including Australia, Italy, Singapore, and South Korea
have also started deploying mmWave, and the list will grow over time.
• Market shares are concentrated: Ericsson and Samsung Electronics were co-leaders in
this segment with a revenue market share of 34% each, followed by Nokia. Airspan
(grouped under “Other” in the figure on the right) is another strong player in mmWave
thanks to its presence in Rakuten’s network; it was the leading vendor among
challengers.
• Market shares will change: In 2020 and 2021, the mmWave market was largely driven
by Verizon, and to a lesser extent by other US and Japanese operators. As more and
more operators start deploying mmWave in the next few years, the market shares in
the mmWave segment should get closer to the market shares seen in the overall 5G
market.
© 2022 Omdia
Page 14
mmWave Market Outlook and Trends | April 2022
Forecast by regions
• A small but growing market: Omdia expects the market to grow continuously over the
forecast period from $745m in 2021 to approximately $2.4bn in 2026 and from 58,000
to 236,000 radio units annually.
• North America and Asia & Oceania will dominate but market dependence toward the
US and Japan will ease: The two regions will continue to represent most of the revenue
from, respectively, 74% and 17% in 2021 to 52% and 29% in 2026. In 2022, the US and
Japan will continue to drive growth, but more countries and operators will launch
mmWave services. From under 20 operators in 2021, the number of operators with
mmWave deployments could reach 100 by the end of the forecast period.
• China is a key source of uncertainty: Operators in China are expected to conduct large-
scale trials and spectrum could be officially allocated in 2023. This forecast assumes a
medium scenario with limited strategic deployments, but if operators in the country
were to deploy mmWave more aggressively, this would lead to further acceleration for
the global market.
• New scenarios will drive growth: While most mmWave deployments have happened in
outdoor public networks and for FWA and eMBB until now, the share of indoor
deployments and private network deployments is expected to increase, and this could
affect the forecast, which currently accounts for limited indoor and private network
deployments.
© 2022 Omdia
Page 15
Regional markets
© 2022 Omdia
Page 16
mmWave Market Outlook and Trends | April 2022
Regional markets: North America
• North America has been and will remain the primary market for mmWave 5G: North
America, and effectively the US, represented 74% of the global mmWave equipment
revenue in 2021. This region is expected to remain in the lead during the forecast
period; however, it will be less dominant as more operators in more markets around
the world also deploy mmWave 5G.
• The US allocated a lot of mmWave spectrum early: Spectrum in 24GHz, 28GHz, 37GHz,
39GHz, and 47GHz was allocated between 2019 and 2020, providing a cumulated total
of almost 5,000MHz of spectrum, i.e., more than all the spectrum allocated to mobile
broadband before, not counting additional bands considered in 26Ghz and 42Ghz.
• mmWave, a choice by default: The lack of available mid-band spectrum during the
early 5G stages is another explanation for the unique appetite for mmWave in this
market. Operators are expected to continue deploying 5G in mmWave, but with C-band
spectrum finally available, operators will focus on mid-bands in 2022 and 2023. The
relatively low penetration of fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) in the country is an explanation
for the development of FWA, including mmWave-based FWA, which is not observed in
markets where ultra–high speed broadband penetration is high.
• Verizon: Verizon played a critical role in the development of the mmWave ecosystem,
not just in the US but globally. After FWA in 2018, Verizon launched its mmWave mobile
service in April 2019. The operator already delivers its 5G Ultra Wideband service using
C-band and mmWave spectrum to more than 100 million people and plan to reach 250
million in 2024; however, the percentage attributable to mmWave is unknown.
© 2022 Omdia
Page 17
North American mmWave operators
Operator Amount of spectrum (MHz) Commercial launch Existing services/Opportunities
Verizon
100–400 in 26GHz
October 2018
FWA, consumer mobile,
enterprise
100–850 in 28GHz
700–1,700 in 39GHz
AT&T
100–400 in 26GHz
December 2018
Consumer mobile, enterprise,
FWA
400–800 in 28GHz
100–1,000 in 39GHz
T-Mobile
100–500 in 26GHz
June 2019
50–850 in 28GHz
100–600 in 39GHz
100–500 in 42GHz
US Cellular
100–300 in 26GHz
Not launched, trials FWA
400–600 in 28GHz
200–800 in 39GHz
Notes: 1. Other operators including Charter in the US and Telus in Canada have conducted trials.
2. In “Existing services/Opportunities,” bolded text refers to existing services while un-bolded text refers to opportunities.
Source: Omdia © 2022 Omdia
mmWave Market Outlook and Trends | April 2022
Regional markets: Japan
• Asia & Oceania: This region represented an estimated 17% of the global mmWave
market in 2021 and Japan alone represented over 85% of its total. The country is
expected to remain a key market driver during the forecast period; however, as more
operators in the region start deploying mmWave 5G, its share of the total will decrease.
• Spectrum allocation: Each operator received 400MHz of spectrum in the 28GHz band
in exchange for a commitment to deploy a certain number of mmWave base stations
each by 2024 (see table for details). In addition, the 28.2–28.3GHz spectrum was
designated for local 5G licenses or private networks (to be extended to 28.2–29.1GHz).
• Commercial service: Together with the US, Japan is the only market where commercial
5G mmWave service is offered by all operators.
– KDDI: Launched its 5G service, including mmWave service, in March 2020 with a
focus on transportation, tourist, and commercial facilities; and venues like stadiums.
– NTT DOCOMO: Launched its mmWave service in September 2020 with a focus on
transportation facilities, stadiums, tourist and commercial facilities, the operators’
own retail shops, etc.
– Rakuten Mobile: Launched 5G in September 2020 with mid-band and mmWave.
– Softbank: Launched its mmWave service in March 2021 with a mobile hotspot.
• Approximately 20,000 mmWave radio units have been deployed in Japan as of 1Q22.
Japanese mmWave operators
Operator
Amount of
spectrum
(MHz)
Commercial
launch
Commitment
(number of base stations)
Existing services/
Opportunities
KDDI 400 March 2020 12,800
Consumer mobile:
transportation
facilities, stadiums
and other venues,
tourist and
commercial areas,
and operators’
own retail shops
NTT DOCOMO 400 September 2020 5,000
Rakuten Mobile 400 September 2020 7,900
Softbank 400 March 2021 3,900
Notes: In “Existing services/Opportunities,” bolded text refers to existing services while un-bolded text refers to opportunities.
Source: Omdia © 2022 Omdia
© 2022 Omdia
Page 18
mmWave Market Outlook and Trends | April 2022
Regional markets: Asia & Oceania
• Asia & Oceania: This region represented an estimated 17% of the global mmWave
market in 2021 and the share of the region could grow to 29% by 2026. In addition to
Japan, operators in Australia, China, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, and
possibly other markets will deploy 5G in mmWave in the next few years.
• Australia: Spectrum has been allocated and the service launched. Like in the US, one of
the key use cases is FWA, and there are also deployments in high-traffic areas and
stadiums. Telstra has deployed 5G mmWave in five capital cities. Optus also launched
its service and TPG is conducting trials. NBN, the wholesale fixed operator, has also
announced its plan to use mmWave 5G for FWA at 2,200 sites.
• Singapore: Each of the four operators was assigned 800MHz of spectrum. Singtel
launched its service in December 2020 with industrial and transportation/logistics use
cases (manufacturing, port, airport). The mmWave network has also been deployed in a
few public hotspots; however, the lack of devices means that it is effectively an
enterprise service first, with the consumer service expected to become available later.
• Hong Kong and South Korea: 28GHz spectrum was assigned early in both markets, but
the associated obligations of deployments have been eased. In South Korea, the
deployment obligations of 15,000 base stations per operator by 2021 have yet to be
met. Authorities acknowledged the challenges in terms of business cases and lack of
devices, and subsequently relaxed the requirements. Small-scale pilots were supported
by an estimated 300 sites at the end of 2021. Another mmWave use case is Wi-Fi
backhaul in the subway. Both markets lack smartphones supporting mmWave.
Selected Asia & Oceania mmWave markets
Market
Spectrum
band
Amount of
spectrum (MHz)
Status Existing services/Opportunities
Australia 26GHz 2,400 Launched for consumers FWA, consumer mobile
Hong Kong 28GHz 1,200 Launched for enterprise Enterprise, consume mobile
Singapore 26GHz 3,200 Launched for enterprise Enterprise, consumer mobile
South Korea 28GHz 2,400
Launched for enterprise
and backhaul
Enterprise, Wi-Fi backhaul in
subways, consumer mobile
Taiwan 28GHz 1,600 Spectrum allocated Enterprise, consumer mobile
Thailand 26GHz 2,600 Spectrum allocated, trials FWA, consumer mobile
Notes: 1. In Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and other markets, mmWave is under consideration.
2. In “Existing services/Opportunities,” bolded text refers to existing services while un-bolded text refers to opportunities.
Source: Omdia © 2022 Omdia
© 2022 Omdia
Page 19
mmWave Market Outlook and Trends | April 2022
Regional markets: EMEA and Latin America & the Caribbean
• EMEA and Latin America & the Caribbean: Both represented 9% and 0.2%,
respectively, of the global total in 2021. The two regions are expected to grow their
contributions to 15% and 4%, respectively, of the global market by 2026.
• Europe: 26GHz (24.25–27.5GHz) was designated as one of the 5G “pioneer bands.”
Denmark, Italy, Finland, and Greece have already allocated spectrum and more
countries are expected to do so in 2022 and 2023. In Germany, 3,250MHz is designated
for local licenses. In the UK, the 26GHz band is available for low-power shared access
indoor use only. Spectrum was also allocated in Russia in 2020 and several operators
have since conducted trials and launched pilot networks.
• Italy: Italy was the first country in Europe to allocate spectrum and Italian operator
Fastweb was the first in the region to launch a mmWave FWA service commercially in
2021. It currently reaches 400 cities, and the operator announced an objective to cover
12 million homes and businesses with 5G FWA by 2025. The operator plans to launch
standalone 5G in 2022. TIM is focused on the B2B opportunity and deployed a
mmWave (and C-band) private network for at least one smart factory client.
• Middle East & Africa: Spectrum has been allocated in the UAE. Other countries
including Saudi Arabia are expected to allocate spectrum in the coming months.
• Latin America & the Caribbean: Following Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay, at least two other
markets—Argentina and Peru—also plan to assign mmWave spectrum.
Selected EMEA and Latin America & the Caribbean mmWave markets
Market
Spectrum
band
Amount of
spectrum (MHz)
Status Existing services/Opportunities
Italy 26GHz 1,000 Launched FWA, enterprise
Brazil 26GHz 2,600 Spectrum allocated
Consumer mobile, enterprise
Chile 26GHz 1,200 Spectrum allocated
Denmark 26GHz 2,850 Spectrum allocated
Finland 26GHz 2,400 Spectrum allocated
UAE 26GHz 2,000 Spectrum allocated
Uruguay 28GHz 850 Spectrum allocated
Notes: In “Existing services/Opportunities,” bolded text refers to existing services while un-bolded text refers to opportunities.
Source: Omdia © 2022 Omdia
© 2022 Omdia
Page 20
Appendix
© 2022 Omdia
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mmWave Market Outlook and Trends | April 2022
Appendix
© 2022 Omdia
Page 22
Methodology
The data in this report comes from analyst conversations with vendors, operators, and other stakeholders. Third-party sources, such as financial earnings and industry news articles, were
also sourced.
Further reading
Mobile Infrastructure Market Tracker – 4Q21 Data (March 2022)
Author
Rémy Pascal, Principal Analyst, Mobile Infrastructure
askananalyst@omdia.com
mmWave Market Outlook and Trends | April 2022
Appendix
© 2022 Omdia
Page 23
Omdia Consulting
We hope that this analysis will help you make informed and imaginative business decisions. If you have further requirements, Omdia’s consulting team may be able to help you. For more
information about Omdia’s consulting capabilities, please contact us directly at consulting@omdia.com.
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OM023460_mmWave Market Outlook and Trends.pptx

  • 1. Brought to you by Informa Tech Rémy Pascal Principal Analyst, Mobile Infrastructure askananalyst@omdia.com mmWave Market Outlook and Trends © 2022 Omdia
  • 2. mmWave Market Outlook and Trends | April 2022 Contents © 2022 Omdia • Omdia view and recommendations • Introduction, ecosystem, and market trends • Market size, market shares, and forecast • Regional markets • Appendix Page 2
  • 4. mmWave Market Outlook and Trends | April 2022 Key takeaways and Omdia view • Millimeter waves (mmWave) are radio frequencies from 30GHz to 300GHz. By simplification, the mobile industry often uses the term “mmWave” to designate the frequency bands between 24GHz and 42GHz that have been identified by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) for allocation to mobile services. This is the definition used in this report. • Deployments in mmWave bands represent a small share of all 5G deployments. The market size for mmWave equipment in 2021 was: – $745m in revenue – 58,000 radio units • By 2026, Omdia expects mmWave equipment to represent a market of: – $2.38bn in revenue – 236,000 radio units • The US and Japan have been and will remain key driving forces for this segment. In both countries, all operators have launched mmWave-based services. In the US, the three main operators are offering 5G mmWave services with a relatively strong smartphone lineup and availability in at least 70 cities. • Other markets are also starting to deploy mmWave equipment including Australia, Italy, Singapore, and South Korea, and as more countries allocate mmWave spectrum in the coming years, the segment will mature and progressively depend less on only a small number of geographies. • Ericsson and Samsung are the market leaders, thanks to their strong positions in the US (Verizon especially) and in Japan (KDDI and NTT DOCOMO especially), but as more operators deploy networks using mmWave spectrum, market shares will be more distributed and are expected to get closer to overall 5G market shares. © 2022 Omdia Page 4
  • 5. mmWave Market Outlook and Trends | April 2022 Recommendations • Recommendations for service providers – Service providers should secure spectrum when available for free or at a reasonable price. The availability of spectrum is different in each country but can often range between 400MHz and 800MHz per operator, or even more, and it represents a massive addition to any operator’s spectrum portfolio. In the near future, sub-6Ghz spectrum will provide sufficient capacity for most cell sites of most operators around the world. However, as data traffic continues to grow, even if at a slower pace, additional network capacity will be needed and mmWave will be a welcome addition to the spectrum mix. Omdia forecasts that the global cellular data traffic will be 3.4x higher in 2026 than in 2021. – When assessing the business case, operators should consider not only enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB) but also fixed wireless access (FWA) and B2B applications, whether those are running on the public network or private networks. In addition to the access domain, mmWave can also be used to backhaul other bands, mmWave itself with integrated access and backhaul (IAB), as well as Wi-Fi. – The device ecosystem, thanks to the efforts of companies like Qualcomm, is maturing, and operators also have a role to play in creating the demand that justifies the investment in said ecosystem. • Recommendations for vendors – mmWave will represent a small but non-negligible market for vendors in the coming years, and mmWave should be a part of every vendor’s portfolio. The portfolio should include a variety of solutions including macro and small cells, outdoor and indoor, and access and backhaul. – mmWave alone may not generate a huge revenue, but the competitiveness of a RAN vendor portfolio is also gauged on its ability to support less mainstream spectrum bands and to address a variety of scenarios. – Performance, footprint, and total cost of ownership (TCO) are the key purchasing decision criteria, but power efficiency is another increasingly important consideration. © 2022 Omdia Page 5
  • 7. mmWave Market Outlook and Trends | April 2022 Key challenges and benefits of mmWave • mmWave bands are not a coverage solution: mmWave bands are characterized by relatively limited propagation, high sensitivity to obstacles, and poor in-building penetration, and no one can argue with that. Therefore, they have not played a major role in the early stages of 5G. • mmWave bands are a capacity and offload solution: mmWave also presents some advantages, the main one being the massive amount of spectrum available. How much spectrum is available varies by country but it is often 5–10x more than in mid-band. As such, mmWave bands should be treated like a capacity solution and assessed based on the share of the total traffic (or 5G traffic) that they carry. Verizon’s CEO commented that more than 20% of traffic traveled over mmWave in its “established” mmWave markets in 3Q21, and that it would have shifted 5–10% of all its traffic in urban areas onto mmWave by the end of 2021. When data traffic is offloaded to mmWave carriers, it also frees up capacity in sub-6Ghz for the rest of the users. • Higher peak and average throughputs: In live mmWave networks, single-user peak speeds up to 2Gbps and more are measured, and though as always it depends on the amount of spectrum put to work and the network load, those peak speeds are typically between 5–10x faster than speeds achieved on sub-6GHz 5G. The multiplier is typically within the same range for average speeds. In that sense, mmWave, not because of its characteristics per se, but simply because of the amount of spectrum available, is essential to achieve the gigabit(s) speeds promised by 5G. © 2022 Omdia Page 7 Challenges Solutions Path loss (attenuation of the signal as it propagates) Using more antenna elements, higher gain antennas, and narrow beams to overcome loss. Short wavelengths mean that the physical size of antennas is small, so more antenna elements can be packed in small radio equipment and help overcome this challenge. Using repeaters to amplify the signal and expand coverage. Blockage (sensitivity to obstacles) Planning mmWave networks and selecting deployment locations carefully. New 3D planning tools have been developed for this purpose. Line of sight when available is ideal and provides an undeniable advantage, but reflection and diffraction can also help to achieve decent results. Poor in-building penetration Deploying indoors. Depending on the signal strength and material to penetrate the signal can sometimes travel from outdoors to indoors. Stronger losses are to be expected but this does not mean that mmWave is useless. Costly Conducting location-specific cost analysis. Deploying mmWave is not systematically more (or less) costly than other options available. High capacity potentially enables the support of multiple use cases at the same time in access and backhaul, which can also help to improve the business case. Key challenges and solutions Source: Omdia © 2022 Omdia
  • 8. mmWave Market Outlook and Trends | April 2022 Scenarios and use cases for mmWave © 2022 Omdia Page 8 • As seen previously, mmWave bands are not a solution for coverage and nationwide deployments, instead they are a solution for capacity and localized deployments. Therefore, some of the most attractive scenarios for mmWave deployments are: – Very dense to dense urban areas: Where the need for additional capacity is more urgent and where the network grid density is higher, making it easier to deploy on existing sites. In such areas, the compactness of the mmWave equipment is an additional advantage. – Fixed wireless access: Using mmWave 5G as an alternative to fiber where and when it is not economical or practical to deploy fiber. Omdia sees 5G as a complement, not a replacement to fiber. – Venues and high-traffic locations: For example, stadiums, airports, rail and subway stations, malls, convention centers, concert halls, and campuses, among others. mmWave can also be used for high-capacity temporary networks for events (sports competitions, festivals, etc.) as well as during emergencies or disasters. – Enterprise services: Whether they run on the public network or on a dedicated private network. The technology has, for example, been tested in smart factories and logistics hubs. Also in offices, and probably not whole office buildings, but high traffic areas such as cafeterias or auditoriums, for example. – Backhaul: In addition to the access domain, mmWave can also be used for backhaul. Particularly with integrated access and backhaul (IAB), the same mmWave spectrum and equipment can be used for both access and backhaul, typically because fiber is not available or too costly to use in that location. mmWave can also be used to backhaul other bands and Wi-Fi. Dense urban areas Fixed wireless access Venues and high-traffic locations Enterprises and private networks Backhaul Main mmWave use cases Source: Omdia © 2022 Omdia
  • 9. mmWave Market Outlook and Trends | April 2022 mmWave spectrum allocation • More countries allocate mmWave spectrum: mmWave spectrum has already been allocated in dozens of countries including some of the most technologically advanced markets in each region such as the US, Australia, Japan, South Korea, and Finland. The table on the right lists some of these countries, but this list is not comprehensive. There are also many more countries that are in the process of allocating the spectrum or of conducting consultations. Only some countries do not have any plans. • Spectrum bands specified by 3GPP: Includes bands n257 (26.5–29.5GHz), n258 (24.25– 27.5GHz), n259 (39.5–43.5GHz), n260 (37–40GHz), and n261 (27.5–28.35GHz). • Spectrum allocation does not guarantee wide-scale deployments: The examples of South Korea and Hong Kong show that despite early spectrum allocations and deployment obligations, it can take time for the spectrum to be put to work, especially if mmWave has to compete for capex budget with low- and mid-bands. Spectrum is necessary but not sufficient for mmWave to become mainstream. • mmWave will be combined with other bands: mmWave bands are not to be operated in isolation from the rest of the network. They will be combined with mid-bands through new radio dual connectivity (NR-DC) for enhanced coverage and performance, and numerous operators around the world are currently conducting trials. mmWave spectrum allocation in selected countries Country/territory Spectrum band Amount of spectrum (MHz) Australia 26GHz 2,400 Brazil 26GHz 2,600 Chile 26GHz 1,200 Denmark 26GHz 2,850 Finland 26GHz 2,400 Hong Kong 28GHz 1,200 Italy 26GHz 1,000 Japan 28GHz 1,600 Singapore 26GHz 3,200 South Korea 28GHz 2,400 Taiwan 28GHz 1,600 Thailand 26GHz 2,600 UAE 26GHz 2,000 Uruguay 28GHz 850 US 24GHz, 28GHz, 37GHz, 39GHz, and 47GHz 700 in 24GHz 850 in 28GHz 3,400 in 37GHz, 39GHz, and 47GHz Source: Omdia © 2022 Omdia © 2022 Omdia Page 9
  • 10. mmWave Market Outlook and Trends | April 2022 Network equipment trends (1/2) © 2022 Omdia Page 10 Area Description Network equipment vendor support Information collected for Omdia’s 2021 and 2022 vendor landscape reports show that the top 10 RAN vendors have commercially available mmWave solutions. Not all vendors have the same breadth of solutions. Support by spectrum band Leading vendors have products for the main mmWave spectrum bands defined by the 3GPP, i.e., n257 (26.5–29.5GHz), n258 (24.25–27.5GHz), n260 (37– 40GHz), and n261 (27.5–28.35GHz). Only n259 (39.5–43.5GHz) is not supported. Product portfolios and type There are a variety of solutions including compact small cell-like access units (combining antenna, radio, and baseband into one box) for deployment on street lamps or utility poles for example, and macro active antennas connected to a separate baseband unit. In 2022, Omdia expects vendors to continue expanding and enriching their portfolio, especially with indoor solutions. Product performance and specifications As with other spectrum bands, vendors are continuously introducing enhancements and new generations of products with typically higher capacity and wideband support (sometimes full-band, i.e., 3GHz for n257 or n258), as well as enhanced MIMO (multiple input, multiple output) and beamforming capabilities. Each 3GPP release introduces enhancements for mmWave such as improved beamforming reliability, selection and management for enhanced coverage and performance, power saving features, expanded spectrum support, and more. Continuous improvements make today’s mmWave more attractive than when the technology was first introduced in 2018. Form factor Size and weight are important considerations when deploying in dense urban scenarios and in-building. Thanks to mmWave’s short wavelengths, products are compact (generally below 15kg, and for the small cells type they are below 6kg for outdoor products and below 4kg for indoor solutions). Omdia expects to see further improvements. Vendors with in-house capabilities and control over their silicon have an advantage over the others. Power efficiency Power efficiency is now a consideration for all network products, and mmWave solutions are no exception. An additional consideration for indoor deployment is low acoustic noise for areas like offices or libraries (<40dBa). Price Based on limited information, the price of mmWave equipment seems to have diminished since the early versions were launched and as volumes started to increase. Cheaper solutions are key to a wider adoption; however, Omdia is concerned by the shortages and inflation of material costs. Source: Omdia © 2022 Omdia
  • 11. mmWave Market Outlook and Trends | April 2022 Network equipment trends (2/2) • Repeaters – Repeaters are expected to play a bigger role for mmWave than for low- and mid-bands as they can help to overcome some of mmWave’s limitations. – Repeaters receive a signal from the donor antenna, then they amplify and re-transmit it. They do not add capacity to the network, but enable the expansion of coverage, in a more cost-effective manner than new base stations. Repeaters may be cheaper but should not be thought of as very low-cost solutions. According to interviews conducted by Omdia for this report, each mmWave repeater could cost between $4,000 and $8,000 in North America. – Several repeater companies have been associated with Verizon’s mmWave deployment including FRTek, Pivotal Commware, and SureCall. In February 2022, Pivotal Commware announced the commercial launch of its Echo 5G Boost FWA subscriber repeater for low emissivity glass (low-e) windows, which it describes as a “customer-installable, on-the- window, precision beamforming repeater designed to counteract mmWave penetration, reflection, and structural shadowing losses.” – In other parts of the world, Telstra also said it uses repeaters in central business districts of the cities where the operator has deployed mmWave. Telstra commented that “the portfolio [of main vendors] is not as rich in terms of repeaters.” This is an opportunity for challengers. – However, repeaters have a tendency to amplify everything (including noise and interference) and this is why 3GPP has been discussing the concept of smart(er) repeaters, which unlike traditional repeaters would only amplify the desired signal. • Reconfigurable intelligent surfaces (RISs) – RIS is another concept that has gained interest recently. RISs are controllable smart surfaces with reflective, refractive, or absorption characteristics that can be integrated into everyday objects (walls, windows, poles, etc.) as components of the radio network, between base stations and the end-user device. The technology is not specific to mmWave but, like repeaters, it could be of particular interest for this segment, enabling the expansion and enhancement of coverage. – RISs were considered for 3GPP’s Release 18, and then abandoned, but they could make a comeback in future releases. © 2022 Omdia Page 11
  • 12. mmWave Market Outlook and Trends | April 2022 Device availability and shipments • Availability of devices – By the end of 2021, there were approximately 100 devices supporting at least one mmWave band commercially available, compared to only 40 at the end of 2019. This is relatively modest when compared to the overall 5G device ecosystem; yet, it shows that this ecosystem is progressively growing with the iPhone and flagship Samsung phones now supporting mmWave in some markets. – The most supported band is n261 (27.5–28.35GHz). – Qualcomm has been a key supporter of mmWave since the very early stages and is expected to continue actively supporting the device ecosystem, not only in terms of smartphones, but also customer premises equipment (CPE) for FWA, hotspots, laptops, and modules for enterprise applications. mmWave 5G standalone (SA) support is expected in 2022 and will enable more services and use cases including for enterprise customers. • Smartphone shipments – Omdia estimated that 0.4% of all smartphones shipped in 2019 supported at least one mmWave band, followed by 3% in 2020 and 6% in 2021 (preliminary estimates). This is in comparison to 1%, 20%, and 40% of the smartphones shipped in those years that supported 5G. – Omdia forecasts that in 2026, 87% of smartphones shipped will support 5G and 57% will support mmWave. © 2022 Omdia Page 12
  • 13. Market size, market shares, and forecast © 2022 Omdia Page 13
  • 14. mmWave Market Outlook and Trends | April 2022 Market size and market shares • mmWave represents only a small percentage of the 5G market: Omdia estimates that in 2021 mmWave equipment represented a market of $745m and 58,000 radio units. The $745m represented 2.6% of the 5G NR market and 1.6% of the total RAN market. • A market dependent on a small number of operators: mmWave is a relatively small segment of the 5G market, but it should not be neglected by vendors, especially if they are operating in countries where the spectrum has been, or is planned to be, allocated. Currently, the US and Japan are the two main destinations for mmWave product shipments, but other countries including Australia, Italy, Singapore, and South Korea have also started deploying mmWave, and the list will grow over time. • Market shares are concentrated: Ericsson and Samsung Electronics were co-leaders in this segment with a revenue market share of 34% each, followed by Nokia. Airspan (grouped under “Other” in the figure on the right) is another strong player in mmWave thanks to its presence in Rakuten’s network; it was the leading vendor among challengers. • Market shares will change: In 2020 and 2021, the mmWave market was largely driven by Verizon, and to a lesser extent by other US and Japanese operators. As more and more operators start deploying mmWave in the next few years, the market shares in the mmWave segment should get closer to the market shares seen in the overall 5G market. © 2022 Omdia Page 14
  • 15. mmWave Market Outlook and Trends | April 2022 Forecast by regions • A small but growing market: Omdia expects the market to grow continuously over the forecast period from $745m in 2021 to approximately $2.4bn in 2026 and from 58,000 to 236,000 radio units annually. • North America and Asia & Oceania will dominate but market dependence toward the US and Japan will ease: The two regions will continue to represent most of the revenue from, respectively, 74% and 17% in 2021 to 52% and 29% in 2026. In 2022, the US and Japan will continue to drive growth, but more countries and operators will launch mmWave services. From under 20 operators in 2021, the number of operators with mmWave deployments could reach 100 by the end of the forecast period. • China is a key source of uncertainty: Operators in China are expected to conduct large- scale trials and spectrum could be officially allocated in 2023. This forecast assumes a medium scenario with limited strategic deployments, but if operators in the country were to deploy mmWave more aggressively, this would lead to further acceleration for the global market. • New scenarios will drive growth: While most mmWave deployments have happened in outdoor public networks and for FWA and eMBB until now, the share of indoor deployments and private network deployments is expected to increase, and this could affect the forecast, which currently accounts for limited indoor and private network deployments. © 2022 Omdia Page 15
  • 16. Regional markets © 2022 Omdia Page 16
  • 17. mmWave Market Outlook and Trends | April 2022 Regional markets: North America • North America has been and will remain the primary market for mmWave 5G: North America, and effectively the US, represented 74% of the global mmWave equipment revenue in 2021. This region is expected to remain in the lead during the forecast period; however, it will be less dominant as more operators in more markets around the world also deploy mmWave 5G. • The US allocated a lot of mmWave spectrum early: Spectrum in 24GHz, 28GHz, 37GHz, 39GHz, and 47GHz was allocated between 2019 and 2020, providing a cumulated total of almost 5,000MHz of spectrum, i.e., more than all the spectrum allocated to mobile broadband before, not counting additional bands considered in 26Ghz and 42Ghz. • mmWave, a choice by default: The lack of available mid-band spectrum during the early 5G stages is another explanation for the unique appetite for mmWave in this market. Operators are expected to continue deploying 5G in mmWave, but with C-band spectrum finally available, operators will focus on mid-bands in 2022 and 2023. The relatively low penetration of fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) in the country is an explanation for the development of FWA, including mmWave-based FWA, which is not observed in markets where ultra–high speed broadband penetration is high. • Verizon: Verizon played a critical role in the development of the mmWave ecosystem, not just in the US but globally. After FWA in 2018, Verizon launched its mmWave mobile service in April 2019. The operator already delivers its 5G Ultra Wideband service using C-band and mmWave spectrum to more than 100 million people and plan to reach 250 million in 2024; however, the percentage attributable to mmWave is unknown. © 2022 Omdia Page 17 North American mmWave operators Operator Amount of spectrum (MHz) Commercial launch Existing services/Opportunities Verizon 100–400 in 26GHz October 2018 FWA, consumer mobile, enterprise 100–850 in 28GHz 700–1,700 in 39GHz AT&T 100–400 in 26GHz December 2018 Consumer mobile, enterprise, FWA 400–800 in 28GHz 100–1,000 in 39GHz T-Mobile 100–500 in 26GHz June 2019 50–850 in 28GHz 100–600 in 39GHz 100–500 in 42GHz US Cellular 100–300 in 26GHz Not launched, trials FWA 400–600 in 28GHz 200–800 in 39GHz Notes: 1. Other operators including Charter in the US and Telus in Canada have conducted trials. 2. In “Existing services/Opportunities,” bolded text refers to existing services while un-bolded text refers to opportunities. Source: Omdia © 2022 Omdia
  • 18. mmWave Market Outlook and Trends | April 2022 Regional markets: Japan • Asia & Oceania: This region represented an estimated 17% of the global mmWave market in 2021 and Japan alone represented over 85% of its total. The country is expected to remain a key market driver during the forecast period; however, as more operators in the region start deploying mmWave 5G, its share of the total will decrease. • Spectrum allocation: Each operator received 400MHz of spectrum in the 28GHz band in exchange for a commitment to deploy a certain number of mmWave base stations each by 2024 (see table for details). In addition, the 28.2–28.3GHz spectrum was designated for local 5G licenses or private networks (to be extended to 28.2–29.1GHz). • Commercial service: Together with the US, Japan is the only market where commercial 5G mmWave service is offered by all operators. – KDDI: Launched its 5G service, including mmWave service, in March 2020 with a focus on transportation, tourist, and commercial facilities; and venues like stadiums. – NTT DOCOMO: Launched its mmWave service in September 2020 with a focus on transportation facilities, stadiums, tourist and commercial facilities, the operators’ own retail shops, etc. – Rakuten Mobile: Launched 5G in September 2020 with mid-band and mmWave. – Softbank: Launched its mmWave service in March 2021 with a mobile hotspot. • Approximately 20,000 mmWave radio units have been deployed in Japan as of 1Q22. Japanese mmWave operators Operator Amount of spectrum (MHz) Commercial launch Commitment (number of base stations) Existing services/ Opportunities KDDI 400 March 2020 12,800 Consumer mobile: transportation facilities, stadiums and other venues, tourist and commercial areas, and operators’ own retail shops NTT DOCOMO 400 September 2020 5,000 Rakuten Mobile 400 September 2020 7,900 Softbank 400 March 2021 3,900 Notes: In “Existing services/Opportunities,” bolded text refers to existing services while un-bolded text refers to opportunities. Source: Omdia © 2022 Omdia © 2022 Omdia Page 18
  • 19. mmWave Market Outlook and Trends | April 2022 Regional markets: Asia & Oceania • Asia & Oceania: This region represented an estimated 17% of the global mmWave market in 2021 and the share of the region could grow to 29% by 2026. In addition to Japan, operators in Australia, China, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, and possibly other markets will deploy 5G in mmWave in the next few years. • Australia: Spectrum has been allocated and the service launched. Like in the US, one of the key use cases is FWA, and there are also deployments in high-traffic areas and stadiums. Telstra has deployed 5G mmWave in five capital cities. Optus also launched its service and TPG is conducting trials. NBN, the wholesale fixed operator, has also announced its plan to use mmWave 5G for FWA at 2,200 sites. • Singapore: Each of the four operators was assigned 800MHz of spectrum. Singtel launched its service in December 2020 with industrial and transportation/logistics use cases (manufacturing, port, airport). The mmWave network has also been deployed in a few public hotspots; however, the lack of devices means that it is effectively an enterprise service first, with the consumer service expected to become available later. • Hong Kong and South Korea: 28GHz spectrum was assigned early in both markets, but the associated obligations of deployments have been eased. In South Korea, the deployment obligations of 15,000 base stations per operator by 2021 have yet to be met. Authorities acknowledged the challenges in terms of business cases and lack of devices, and subsequently relaxed the requirements. Small-scale pilots were supported by an estimated 300 sites at the end of 2021. Another mmWave use case is Wi-Fi backhaul in the subway. Both markets lack smartphones supporting mmWave. Selected Asia & Oceania mmWave markets Market Spectrum band Amount of spectrum (MHz) Status Existing services/Opportunities Australia 26GHz 2,400 Launched for consumers FWA, consumer mobile Hong Kong 28GHz 1,200 Launched for enterprise Enterprise, consume mobile Singapore 26GHz 3,200 Launched for enterprise Enterprise, consumer mobile South Korea 28GHz 2,400 Launched for enterprise and backhaul Enterprise, Wi-Fi backhaul in subways, consumer mobile Taiwan 28GHz 1,600 Spectrum allocated Enterprise, consumer mobile Thailand 26GHz 2,600 Spectrum allocated, trials FWA, consumer mobile Notes: 1. In Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and other markets, mmWave is under consideration. 2. In “Existing services/Opportunities,” bolded text refers to existing services while un-bolded text refers to opportunities. Source: Omdia © 2022 Omdia © 2022 Omdia Page 19
  • 20. mmWave Market Outlook and Trends | April 2022 Regional markets: EMEA and Latin America & the Caribbean • EMEA and Latin America & the Caribbean: Both represented 9% and 0.2%, respectively, of the global total in 2021. The two regions are expected to grow their contributions to 15% and 4%, respectively, of the global market by 2026. • Europe: 26GHz (24.25–27.5GHz) was designated as one of the 5G “pioneer bands.” Denmark, Italy, Finland, and Greece have already allocated spectrum and more countries are expected to do so in 2022 and 2023. In Germany, 3,250MHz is designated for local licenses. In the UK, the 26GHz band is available for low-power shared access indoor use only. Spectrum was also allocated in Russia in 2020 and several operators have since conducted trials and launched pilot networks. • Italy: Italy was the first country in Europe to allocate spectrum and Italian operator Fastweb was the first in the region to launch a mmWave FWA service commercially in 2021. It currently reaches 400 cities, and the operator announced an objective to cover 12 million homes and businesses with 5G FWA by 2025. The operator plans to launch standalone 5G in 2022. TIM is focused on the B2B opportunity and deployed a mmWave (and C-band) private network for at least one smart factory client. • Middle East & Africa: Spectrum has been allocated in the UAE. Other countries including Saudi Arabia are expected to allocate spectrum in the coming months. • Latin America & the Caribbean: Following Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay, at least two other markets—Argentina and Peru—also plan to assign mmWave spectrum. Selected EMEA and Latin America & the Caribbean mmWave markets Market Spectrum band Amount of spectrum (MHz) Status Existing services/Opportunities Italy 26GHz 1,000 Launched FWA, enterprise Brazil 26GHz 2,600 Spectrum allocated Consumer mobile, enterprise Chile 26GHz 1,200 Spectrum allocated Denmark 26GHz 2,850 Spectrum allocated Finland 26GHz 2,400 Spectrum allocated UAE 26GHz 2,000 Spectrum allocated Uruguay 28GHz 850 Spectrum allocated Notes: In “Existing services/Opportunities,” bolded text refers to existing services while un-bolded text refers to opportunities. Source: Omdia © 2022 Omdia © 2022 Omdia Page 20
  • 22. mmWave Market Outlook and Trends | April 2022 Appendix © 2022 Omdia Page 22 Methodology The data in this report comes from analyst conversations with vendors, operators, and other stakeholders. Third-party sources, such as financial earnings and industry news articles, were also sourced. Further reading Mobile Infrastructure Market Tracker – 4Q21 Data (March 2022) Author Rémy Pascal, Principal Analyst, Mobile Infrastructure askananalyst@omdia.com
  • 23. mmWave Market Outlook and Trends | April 2022 Appendix © 2022 Omdia Page 23 Omdia Consulting We hope that this analysis will help you make informed and imaginative business decisions. If you have further requirements, Omdia’s consulting team may be able to help you. For more information about Omdia’s consulting capabilities, please contact us directly at consulting@omdia.com. Citation Policy Request external citation and usage of Omdia research and data via citations@omdia.com.
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