An introductory video and presentation looking at how different mobile network operators in different parts of the world will approach the switching off 2G/3G services once 5G is here. We also look at the #GSMAMobileEconomy report 2019 to see how the mobile subscriptions will look in 2025 and what will happen to 2G, 3G, 4G & 5G in different regions of the world. Finally, we will look at how the new smart feature phones powered by KaiOS has the potential to bridge the digital divide and move the users from 2G to 3G & 4G.

1. When will 2G & 3G be
switched off now that
5G is here?
@3g4gUK

2. 2G / 3G Switch Off: A Tale of Two Worlds
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Blog Post
PDF Tracker

3. Frequency Re-farming & Switch-off Concept
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2GToday 2G 3G 4G
2G2G Refarming 4G 3G 4G
4G2G Switch-off 4G 3G 4G
4G3G Switch-off 4G 4G 4G

4. Our Assumptions on 2G / 3G Switch Off
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• In Developed Nations:
• 2G frequencies will be re-farmed continuously for 4G/5G until it can
be switched off completely
• Unless it’s being used for M2M / IoT in which case a thin layer
will remain
• 3G frequency re-farming will start at earliest possible opportunity as
more users move to 4G/5G
• The last 20-30% of the users will be moved with incentives and then
with threat of service closure
• Already happening today and we are expecting these 3G re-farming
and closure to start accelerating from 2023 onwards

5. Some examples
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• Jan 2015: Telenor Norway to shut down 3G network in 2020; five years
before 2G
• Jan 2017: AT&T Shuts Down 2G Network and Ends Cellular Connectivity
for Original iPhone
• Mar 2017: Singapore 2G mobile network to shut down from April 1
• July 2018: KPN (Netherlands) will switch off its 3G network in 2022 but
retain 2G for voice calls in non-VoLTE phones.
• Sep 2018: EE (UK) turns 3G into 4G to Boost Smartphone Speeds and
Lay Foundation for 5G launch

6. Our Assumptions on 2G / 3G Switch Off
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• In Developing and Less-Developed Nations:
• 3G will generally be switched off before 2G.
• Mainly because many people still rely on 2G feature phones
• Also, 3G phones support 2G
• While voice will work fine, data speeds will suffer
• This will force people who can upgrade phones to move to 4G
• 2G will also work for 4G CS Fallback as there are many 4G
devices that don’t support VoLTE
• Many operators in the developing countries believe that GSM will
be around until 2030.
• 3G is expected to be dominant technology in Africa, in 2025

7. Some examples
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• Nov 2017: Airtel (India) to shut down 3G network in 3-4 years ,
continue 2G,4G
• Jan 2019: Thailand to switch off its 2G services by October 2019 –
some spectrum will be used for M2M/IoT devices support
• Feb 2019: Movistar / Telefónica plans to shut down 3G networks by
2025 but will maintain the 2G network indefinitely because it is perfect
for M2M (Machine to Machine) and IoT (Internet of Things) services

8. GSMA Mobile Economy report
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Get the latest version here.

9. The Global Mobile Market
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• World Population
• 2018: 7.6 bn (billion)
• 2025: 8.2 bn
• SIM Connections (excluding IoT)
• 2018: 7.9 bn
• 2025: 9.2 bn
• Unique Mobile Subscribers
• 2018: 5.1 bn
• 2025: 5.8 bn
Source: GSMA “The Mobile Economy 2019” Report

10. Technology Mix: World
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Technology 2G 3G 4G 5G
2018 29% (2.29 bn) 28% (2.21 bn) 43% (3.40 bn) 0%
2025 5% (460 mil) 20% (1.84 bn) 60% (5.52 bn) 15% (1.38 bn)
Source: GSMA “The Mobile Economy 2019” Report

11. Technology Mix: Asia Pacific (APAC)
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Technology 2G 3G 4G 5G
2018 34% 21% 45% 0%
2025 5% 13% 67% 15%
Source: GSMA “The Mobile Economy 2019” Report

12. Technology Mix: Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)
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Technology 2G 3G 4G 5G
2018 36% 45% 19% 0%
2025 2% 18% 68% 12%
Source: GSMA “The Mobile Economy 2019” Report

13. Technology Mix: Europe
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Technology 2G 3G 4G 5G
2018 18% 36% 46% 0%
2025 1% 7% 63% 29%
Source: GSMA “The Mobile Economy 2019” Report

14. Technology Mix: Latin America (LatAm)
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Technology 2G 3G 4G 5G
2018 26% 39% 35% 0%
2025 5% 21% 65% 8%
Source: GSMA “The Mobile Economy 2019” Report

15. Technology Mix: Middle East & North Africa (MENA)
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Technology 2G 3G 4G 5G
2018 37% 40% 23% 0%
2025 10% 32% 52% 6%
Source: GSMA “The Mobile Economy 2019” Report

16. Technology Mix: North America
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Technology 2G 3G 4G 5G
2018 9% 21% 69% 0%
2025 2% 7% 44% 47%
Source: GSMA “The Mobile Economy 2019” Report

17. Technology Mix: Sub-Saharan Africa
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Technology 2G 3G 4G 5G
2018 59% 35% 6% 0%
2025 14% 59% 24% 3%
Source: GSMA “The Mobile Economy 2019” Report

18. MTN at AfricaCom 2018
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19. What are the challenges in Africa?
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• From a User point of view
• Cost of devices
• Cost of connectivity
• Electricity not always / easily available for charging
• From Operator point of view
• Low ARPU per site outside Urban areas
• Extremely low ARPU per site outside Sub-urban areas
• ROI takes a very long time considering the OPEX and maintenance
• Rural sites lack power, security and are often unreachable
• Users refuse to move to newer technologies, high cost of
maintaining multiple technologies

20. Things may be about to change…
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Read more at KaiOS website

21. KaiOS Introductory Video
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Source: YouTube

22. Reliance Jio: JioPhone 1 & JioPhone 2
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4G Smart Feature Phones from Reliance Jio

23. MTN Smart: KaiOS phone for Nigerian Maarket
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Source Tweet

24. Orange launches Sanza 3G in 16 countries
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Orange PR: At MWC19, Orange partners with KaiOS and UNISOC to launch a phone with voice recognition at $US 20 in 16 countries in
Africa and the Middle-East - Botswana, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central Africa Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, Côte d’Ivoire,
Egypt, Guinea Bissau, Guinea Conakry, Jordan, Liberia, Madagascar, Mali, Morocco, Sierra Leone and Tunisia.

25. Ooredoo launches 4G smart feature phones
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Around 30 million of Ooredoo’s 180 million customers (16%) across
12 countries in the Middle East, North Africa and Southeast Asia still
use feature phones with only voice and text capabilities. To help
reduce this digital divide, Ooredoo will be making KaiOS’ smart
feature phones available to customers in Qatar in Q2 of 2019.
Smart feature phones form a new category of mobile devices that
combine the affordability of a feature phone with the essential
features of a smartphone, including the following:
• Fast internet access through Wi-Fi and 4G
• Bluetooth connectivity and GPS for navigation
• The Google Assistant, as well as Google Maps, Google Search,
and YouTube
• The KaiStore, home to the world’s most popular apps as well as
localized content
• Two cameras, as well as music and video streaming services
• Long battery life (2000mah)
• Dual SIM support
• Facebook included out of the box
Source

26. Thank You
To learn more, visit:
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