This document summarizes Shell's process for developing qualitative scenarios to model energy demand and futures. It discusses how Shell uses scenarios to test strategies, identify opportunities and threats, and make risky decisions more transparent. Scenarios are developed through analyzing interactions between politics, environment, technology, society and economics. They must be plausible, internally consistent, challenging and have consequences. Shell's scenario methodology includes understanding key uncertainties and developing quantitative models to underpin qualitative storylines about different potential futures.
Shell Oil has been employing scenario planning practices as a way to analyze its market the impacts that global and regional events and shifts may have for decades. These same principles and practices can be applied to any business and are particularly useful, when scaled appropriate, to business decision-making in energy industries.
Shell uses scenarios to inform strategic planning by exploring multiple potential futures rather than making predictions. Scenarios help stretch perspectives and consider uncertainties. While Shell's current portfolio is designed to be resilient across a range of scenarios, scenarios support robust decision making about strategy, portfolio choices, and individual opportunities.
Media webcast presentation Royal Dutch Shell fourth quarter and full year 201...Shell plc
Peter Voser, Chief Executive Officer of Royal Dutch Shell will host a live video webcast of the Fourth quarter 2011 and Full year Results and Outlook on Thursday February 2 2012, 10:30 GMT (11:30 CET / 05:30 EST).
ISES 2013 - Day 2 - Mitchell Winkler (Director Arctic, Shell) - Arctic DrillingStudent Energy
Shell has significant Arctic exploration and production positions across multiple countries and sees the Arctic as important for meeting future energy demand. Drilling in the Arctic comes with great responsibility to protect the environment and requires comprehensive risk management, including barriers and response plans to control hazards. Shell advocates for a stepwise technology-based approach and collaborating with stakeholders to co-create solutions for developing the Arctic responsibly.
Shell scenarios, modelling and decision-makingShell plc
Presentation by Guy Outen (EVP Strategy and Portfolio) and Wim Thomas (Chief Energy Adviser) on September 8, 2017, providing an overview of how Shell quantifies scenarios, using its own detailed energy models, and their use in strategy setting and portfolio decision-making.
This document summarizes a presentation given at the APM Conference in Manchester on November 7, 2018. The presentation discussed research on project leadership skills and how Shell has applied these findings. It included an introduction by Sarah Coleman, an overview of Shell's experience by Tom Frost, and an exercise. The research identified eight key "survival skills" for project leaders: anticipating, judgment and decision-making, seeing the big picture, building credibility and confidence, being organizationally intelligent, learning, resolving conflicts and collaborating, and creating an effective project culture. Shell has worked to embed these skills in its people development programs and project leadership framework to improve its project delivery performance.
Shell Oil has been employing scenario planning practices as a way to analyze its market the impacts that global and regional events and shifts may have for decades. These same principles and practices can be applied to any business and are particularly useful, when scaled appropriate, to business decision-making in energy industries.
Shell uses scenarios to inform strategic planning by exploring multiple potential futures rather than making predictions. Scenarios help stretch perspectives and consider uncertainties. While Shell's current portfolio is designed to be resilient across a range of scenarios, scenarios support robust decision making about strategy, portfolio choices, and individual opportunities.
Media webcast presentation Royal Dutch Shell fourth quarter and full year 201...Shell plc
Peter Voser, Chief Executive Officer of Royal Dutch Shell will host a live video webcast of the Fourth quarter 2011 and Full year Results and Outlook on Thursday February 2 2012, 10:30 GMT (11:30 CET / 05:30 EST).
ISES 2013 - Day 2 - Mitchell Winkler (Director Arctic, Shell) - Arctic DrillingStudent Energy
Shell has significant Arctic exploration and production positions across multiple countries and sees the Arctic as important for meeting future energy demand. Drilling in the Arctic comes with great responsibility to protect the environment and requires comprehensive risk management, including barriers and response plans to control hazards. Shell advocates for a stepwise technology-based approach and collaborating with stakeholders to co-create solutions for developing the Arctic responsibly.
Shell scenarios, modelling and decision-makingShell plc
Presentation by Guy Outen (EVP Strategy and Portfolio) and Wim Thomas (Chief Energy Adviser) on September 8, 2017, providing an overview of how Shell quantifies scenarios, using its own detailed energy models, and their use in strategy setting and portfolio decision-making.
This document summarizes a presentation given at the APM Conference in Manchester on November 7, 2018. The presentation discussed research on project leadership skills and how Shell has applied these findings. It included an introduction by Sarah Coleman, an overview of Shell's experience by Tom Frost, and an exercise. The research identified eight key "survival skills" for project leaders: anticipating, judgment and decision-making, seeing the big picture, building credibility and confidence, being organizationally intelligent, learning, resolving conflicts and collaborating, and creating an effective project culture. Shell has worked to embed these skills in its people development programs and project leadership framework to improve its project delivery performance.
Shell Socially responsible investors briefing in London - April 24, 2017Shell plc
Ben van Beurden, Chief Executive Officer, Hans Wijers, Non-Executive Director and Chair of the Corporate and Social Responsibility Committee, Donny Ching, Legal Director, and Guy Outen, EVP Strategy and Portfolio, presented to Shell’s Socially Responsible Investors in London during the annual socially responsible investors briefing.
Scaling Advanced Analytics at Shell with Krishna Somasundaram and Bryce BartmannDatabricks
Learn how Shell leveraged Databricks’ Unified Analytics Platform as the cornerstone of their Advanced Analytics COE and how this resulted in a more unified data team collaboratively speeding time to value by reducing unnecessary churn as they operationalized production workloads on projects ranging from Inventory Optimization to Machine Vision.
Royal Dutch Shell plc 2016 Management Day Shell plc
Royal Dutch Shell plc provided an update on the company during Management Day on Tuesday November 8, 2016. Ben van Beurden, Chief Executive Officer of Royal Dutch Shell plc hosted a live audio webcast of Management Day.
Ben van Beurden, Chief Executive Officer of Royal Dutch Shell plc hosted a live analyst video webcast of the 2016 fourth quarter and full year results on Thursday February 2, 2017.
Moving Towards AI at Shell with Daniel Jeavons (Shell)Databricks
1) The document discusses Shell's use of artificial intelligence and digital technologies, highlighting several AI projects currently underway in areas like retail analytics, predictive maintenance, and customer insights.
2) It notes the development of an "Intelligent Cloud & Intelligent Edge" and efforts to shift company culture to better adopt AI.
3) Metrics are provided on the growth of Shell's digital and data science capabilities, including over 120 data science professionals, 2,000 members of an analytics network, and 100+ current data science projects.
Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014Shell plc
Shell’s management hosted an investor day in New York on September 5, 2014, including presentations by Ben Van Beurden, Chief Executive Officer of, Simon Henry, Chief Financial Officer of, Marvin Odum, Upstream Americas Director of, and John Abbott, Downstream Director of Royal Dutch Shell plc.
Socially responsible investors briefing in London, April 14, 2015Shell plc
Ben van Beurden, Chief Executive Officer and Chad Holliday, Non-Executive Director and Chairman of the Corporate and Social Responsibility Committee presented to Shell’s socially responsible investors in London during the annual socially responsible investors briefing. The event also included a short presentation on climate change.
Royal Dutch Shell plc first quarter 2017 results analyst webcast presentationShell plc
Jessica Uhl, Chief Financial Officer of Royal Dutch Shell plc hosted a live audio webcast of the first quarter 2017 results on Thursday May 4, 2017 at 13:30 BST (14:30 CEST / 08:30 EDT).
For more information, see http://www.shell.com/results
Presentation on Shell’s Alaska activities Dec 4th & 5th 2012Shell plc
Royal Dutch Shell provided an Alaska update, discussing its Arctic activities and investments. Shell spent $5 billion in Alaska from 2006 to 2012, leasing acreage and drilling exploration wells in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. However, the 2012 drilling season faced challenges like heavy ice and a prolonged whaling season, allowing Shell to drill only two top holes. Shell aims to understand the resource potential of the Arctic and employs multiple barriers and response measures to operate safely.
Shell Socially responsible investors briefing in London - May 11, 2016Shell plc
This document summarizes an annual roundtable held by Royal Dutch Shell for socially responsible investors on May 11, 2016. The roundtable included presentations and panel sessions on Shell's strategies regarding new energies, oil and gas, scenarios for carbon dioxide management, and environmental and social issues. Key topics discussed included Shell's portfolio resilience under different energy transition scenarios, investments in low-carbon technologies, and ongoing engagement with stakeholders on sustainability reporting and shareholder resolutions.
Peter Voser, CEO of Royal Dutch Shell, presented the Royal Dutch Shell fourth quarter 2012 results and Strategy update to Analysts on January 31, 2013.
Royal Dutch Shell plc 2014 Management Day analyst webcastShell plc
Ben van Beurden, Chief Executive Officer of Royal Dutch Shell plc hosted a live video webcast of the 2014 management day presentation on Thursday March 13, 2014 at 13:00 GMT (14:00 CET / 09:00 EDT).
Tim Bergling, better known by his stage name Avicii, is a Swedish electronic musician, DJ, and record producer. Some of his achievements include being ranked in the top 3 of DJ Mag's Top 100 DJs poll from 2011-2013, receiving two Grammy nominations, and becoming the first DJ to headline Radio City Music Hall in New York City in 2012. Avicii actively engages with his fans through social media like Twitter and Facebook, where he posts about upcoming concerts, shares fan photos, and holds contests. He has also released the album True in 2013 and has collaborated with artists such as David Guetta, Lenny Kravitz, and Madonna.
2014.02.11 - NAEC Invitation_Productivity trends from 1890 to 2012OECD_NAEC
This document analyzes productivity trends in 13 advanced countries from 1890 to 2012 using labor productivity per hour worked and total factor productivity. It finds two major productivity waves, one following the second industrial revolution and boosting US productivity in the early 20th century, and the other following the ICT revolution in the late 20th century. Productivity leadership changed over time from Australia and the UK to the US to some European countries late in the 20th century. The analysis finds no consistent global convergence in productivity levels and detects breaks linked to major events like world wars, financial crises, and policy changes.
Shell Socially responsible investors briefing in London - April 24, 2017Shell plc
Ben van Beurden, Chief Executive Officer, Hans Wijers, Non-Executive Director and Chair of the Corporate and Social Responsibility Committee, Donny Ching, Legal Director, and Guy Outen, EVP Strategy and Portfolio, presented to Shell’s Socially Responsible Investors in London during the annual socially responsible investors briefing.
Scaling Advanced Analytics at Shell with Krishna Somasundaram and Bryce BartmannDatabricks
Learn how Shell leveraged Databricks’ Unified Analytics Platform as the cornerstone of their Advanced Analytics COE and how this resulted in a more unified data team collaboratively speeding time to value by reducing unnecessary churn as they operationalized production workloads on projects ranging from Inventory Optimization to Machine Vision.
Royal Dutch Shell plc 2016 Management Day Shell plc
Royal Dutch Shell plc provided an update on the company during Management Day on Tuesday November 8, 2016. Ben van Beurden, Chief Executive Officer of Royal Dutch Shell plc hosted a live audio webcast of Management Day.
Ben van Beurden, Chief Executive Officer of Royal Dutch Shell plc hosted a live analyst video webcast of the 2016 fourth quarter and full year results on Thursday February 2, 2017.
Moving Towards AI at Shell with Daniel Jeavons (Shell)Databricks
1) The document discusses Shell's use of artificial intelligence and digital technologies, highlighting several AI projects currently underway in areas like retail analytics, predictive maintenance, and customer insights.
2) It notes the development of an "Intelligent Cloud & Intelligent Edge" and efforts to shift company culture to better adopt AI.
3) Metrics are provided on the growth of Shell's digital and data science capabilities, including over 120 data science professionals, 2,000 members of an analytics network, and 100+ current data science projects.
Royal Dutch Shell plc Investor Day in New York, September 5, 2014Shell plc
Shell’s management hosted an investor day in New York on September 5, 2014, including presentations by Ben Van Beurden, Chief Executive Officer of, Simon Henry, Chief Financial Officer of, Marvin Odum, Upstream Americas Director of, and John Abbott, Downstream Director of Royal Dutch Shell plc.
Socially responsible investors briefing in London, April 14, 2015Shell plc
Ben van Beurden, Chief Executive Officer and Chad Holliday, Non-Executive Director and Chairman of the Corporate and Social Responsibility Committee presented to Shell’s socially responsible investors in London during the annual socially responsible investors briefing. The event also included a short presentation on climate change.
Royal Dutch Shell plc first quarter 2017 results analyst webcast presentationShell plc
Jessica Uhl, Chief Financial Officer of Royal Dutch Shell plc hosted a live audio webcast of the first quarter 2017 results on Thursday May 4, 2017 at 13:30 BST (14:30 CEST / 08:30 EDT).
For more information, see http://www.shell.com/results
Presentation on Shell’s Alaska activities Dec 4th & 5th 2012Shell plc
Royal Dutch Shell provided an Alaska update, discussing its Arctic activities and investments. Shell spent $5 billion in Alaska from 2006 to 2012, leasing acreage and drilling exploration wells in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. However, the 2012 drilling season faced challenges like heavy ice and a prolonged whaling season, allowing Shell to drill only two top holes. Shell aims to understand the resource potential of the Arctic and employs multiple barriers and response measures to operate safely.
Shell Socially responsible investors briefing in London - May 11, 2016Shell plc
This document summarizes an annual roundtable held by Royal Dutch Shell for socially responsible investors on May 11, 2016. The roundtable included presentations and panel sessions on Shell's strategies regarding new energies, oil and gas, scenarios for carbon dioxide management, and environmental and social issues. Key topics discussed included Shell's portfolio resilience under different energy transition scenarios, investments in low-carbon technologies, and ongoing engagement with stakeholders on sustainability reporting and shareholder resolutions.
Peter Voser, CEO of Royal Dutch Shell, presented the Royal Dutch Shell fourth quarter 2012 results and Strategy update to Analysts on January 31, 2013.
Royal Dutch Shell plc 2014 Management Day analyst webcastShell plc
Ben van Beurden, Chief Executive Officer of Royal Dutch Shell plc hosted a live video webcast of the 2014 management day presentation on Thursday March 13, 2014 at 13:00 GMT (14:00 CET / 09:00 EDT).
Tim Bergling, better known by his stage name Avicii, is a Swedish electronic musician, DJ, and record producer. Some of his achievements include being ranked in the top 3 of DJ Mag's Top 100 DJs poll from 2011-2013, receiving two Grammy nominations, and becoming the first DJ to headline Radio City Music Hall in New York City in 2012. Avicii actively engages with his fans through social media like Twitter and Facebook, where he posts about upcoming concerts, shares fan photos, and holds contests. He has also released the album True in 2013 and has collaborated with artists such as David Guetta, Lenny Kravitz, and Madonna.
2014.02.11 - NAEC Invitation_Productivity trends from 1890 to 2012OECD_NAEC
This document analyzes productivity trends in 13 advanced countries from 1890 to 2012 using labor productivity per hour worked and total factor productivity. It finds two major productivity waves, one following the second industrial revolution and boosting US productivity in the early 20th century, and the other following the ICT revolution in the late 20th century. Productivity leadership changed over time from Australia and the UK to the US to some European countries late in the 20th century. The analysis finds no consistent global convergence in productivity levels and detects breaks linked to major events like world wars, financial crises, and policy changes.
2014.03.18 - NAEC Seminar_Assessing the vulnerabilities of social institution...OECD_NAEC
This document summarizes a presentation on the social impacts of the economic crisis and policy responses. It discusses how the crisis widened income gaps and increased poverty and financial hardship. While governments initially increased social spending, fiscal pressures later led many to implement spending cuts. This compromised the effectiveness of social policies at a time when more support was needed. The presentation argues for policies that cushion income losses, support self-sufficiency, and prioritize social investments to avoid high future costs. Social policies need to adapt to economic cycles to maintain their effectiveness during times of both growth and crisis.
The product engages audiences through attractive colors, themes, and fonts to catch viewers' attention like real media texts. Professional photographs taken with a DSLR also draw in audiences. The magazine would be distributed through an online website and mobile application to introduce it and get early feedback, allowing the creator to research advertisers and audiences. After establishing an audience, physical copies would be sold in stores for Rs. 230, packaged in plastic to encourage purchase rather than browsing in the store.
2014.11.28 - NAEC Group Meeting_DSG TamakiOECD_NAEC
The OECD, IEA, ITF, and NEA have been tasked with examining how to better align policies across different areas to support a successful transition to sustainable low-carbon economies. This will include looking at economic, fiscal, financial, competition, employment and other policies. A key challenge is that existing policy frameworks were developed for fossil fuel-based economies. The report to Ministers in 2015 will provide examples of how to reform policies in areas like electricity markets, mobility incentives, land use, long-term investment, taxation, innovation, and international trade to support low-carbon transitions. The agencies will seek input on policy alignment issues and solutions through committee reviews, a seminar, and the NAEC Group meeting before reporting
Instagram, Facebook, and Vine are social media platforms that allow users to share different types of media. Instagram focuses on photo sharing, Facebook enables sharing of photos, music and other content, while Vine specializes in short 6-second video clips. These social networks provide ways for people to communicate and share parts of their lives with others around the world.
This document summarizes Sheri Markose's presentation on using multi-agent financial network models (MAFNs) and global macro-net models for macroprudential policymaking. It discusses two key issues with traditional approaches: the paradox of volatility in market data and negative externalities. MAFNs can help visualize systemic risk through bilateral financial data to identify super spreaders and assess network stability. The presentation also covers applications in derivatives modeling, sectoral flows of funds, and insights from country network analyses. Eigenvalue analysis of network structures is discussed as a tool for measuring systemic risk and stabilizing financial systems.
This document discusses macroprudential policy tools for regulating banks' risk and capital levels. It outlines the evolution of macroprudential concepts over time and four key requirements for effective macroprudential policy: identifying imbalances before they become problems, selecting appropriate tools, calibrating tools based on data and coordination. Various tools are described for influencing bank balance sheets, borrowers/lenders, and addressing international spillovers. However, the document notes calibration and governance challenges, and questions the effectiveness of using capital controls as a macroprudential tool.
This document discusses the challenges and promises of agent-based modeling in economics. It begins by outlining the key challenges, such as developing appropriate abstractions while keeping models realistic, and a lack of prior examples. However, it argues that agent-based modeling can complement existing tools by capturing nonlinearities and heterogeneous agents. It then describes a housing market model project that aims to build an agent-based model that can forecast time series and be used for policy analysis. The project involves calibrating decision rules using microdata to simulate the housing market at the individual household level.
Nicki Minaj's official website has a simple pink feminine theme that is eye-catching and matches her Barbie persona. The homepage features Nicki's images, advertisements, and current information about her to keep fans updated. It also allows fans to connect with Nicki through social media links and blogs. The typography and fonts are consistently feminine throughout the website. The website aims to showcase Nicki's image and brand while informing fans about her new projects and engaging them through interactive elements.
Nicki Minaj's official website has a simple pink feminine theme that is eye-catching and matches her Barbie persona. The homepage features Nicki's images, advertisements, and current information about her to keep fans updated. It also allows fans to connect with Nicki through social media links and blogs. The typography and fonts are consistently feminine throughout the website. The website aims to showcase Nicki's presence and build relationships between her and her female audience.
The document discusses using numbers and narratives to explore evolutionary potential. It addresses using quantified self data from things like fitness trackers to go beyond conventional text analysis. It also discusses the need for proper sampling, transparency in algorithms, and shifting from linear to nonlinear views of policy and action. The document also examines monitoring networks of micro-narratives, detecting patterns in outcomes, and managing for serendipity.
The document summarizes how Zurich Airport uses webMethods integration platform to power its operations. Some key points:
- webMethods handles over 70 projects and 140 packages to integrate over 200 systems and applications that manage functions like flight information, passenger processing, security, and airport operations.
- It provides real-time flight status updates, optimized transfer times, and streamlined information displays across the airport.
- Behind the scenes, webMethods integrates systems like Zeus, which provides a single view of airport operations, and PaxRiver, which monitors passenger flow.
- The platform is critical infrastructure, running 24/7 to reliably share data between key airport systems and enable functions passenger-facing functions and
This document summarizes a presentation given at an OECD seminar on skills distribution, wage inequality, and social inequality. The presentation analyzed data from the OECD Survey of Adult Skills to examine the relationship between the distribution of numeracy skills across countries and wage inequality. It found that countries with a more unequal distribution of numeracy skills, such as the US and France, tended to have higher wage inequality. Differences in how skills and education are rewarded in the labor market, rather than differences in average skill levels, accounted for 30-90% of the variation in wage inequality between countries.
This document discusses the potential for behaviorally informed policies and some challenges that have limited their impact so far. It notes that while behavioral research has revolutionized economic theory, its effects on policy have been more modest. It argues that behavioral research needs to merge with complexity research to account for real-world complexity and the diversity of human behaviors. By incorporating insights about bounded rationality, heuristics, and interactions between agents, behavioral economics could help design more robust policies that nudge people in positive ways without oversimplifying human decision-making.
The document summarizes a seminar presented by the OECD Economics Department on approaches to fiscal consolidation that balance growth, equity, and global rebalancing objectives. It proposes a methodology for selecting consolidation instruments based on their short- and long-term impacts. Instruments are ranked from most to least desirable based on quantitative assessments. Country-specific rankings are developed based on cyclical position, inequality, and current account. Simulations show the extent of consolidation different countries may need to achieve and which instruments would likely be used. Structural reforms can ease trade-offs by improving efficiency.
1. The document presents a framework for linking individual dimensions of welfare like income, health, education to specific policies.
2. It proposes analyzing how policies impact outcomes through production and then distribution of income, and how this affects living standards. Health outcomes also directly influence living standards.
3. The framework decomposes production into employment, labor productivity, and their drivers to explicitly link them to policies. It also considers how average income translates across the income distribution. This allows assessing policy trade-offs around areas like growth, environment, and health spending.
This document contains definitions and cautionary notes for Shell's use of terms like reserves, resources, and organic in presentations. It also contains forward-looking statements and discusses factors that could cause actual results to differ from expectations. The agenda outlines topics on coaching and mentoring definitions, a poll of audience experience, coaching and mentoring in Shell using the Pentagon approach, opportunities and dilemmas for organizations, mentors, and mentees, practical tips, and a Q&A.
This presentation was given by Michelle van der Duin, Senior Project Development & Delivery Manager and Head of Shell's Onshore LNG Programme Office, to delegates at the APM Women in Project Management SIG's annual conference 2015.
The conference, entitled 'Driving the future', was held at etc.venues Dexter House in London and saw some 170 delegates and was sponsored by BAE Systems.
The agenda was full of stimulating talks and interactive debate designed to facilitate knowledge-sharing and fresh insights for attendees.
Delegates will left the conference armed with new ideas for progressing their own careers and personal development and, of course, bursting with enthusiasm to promote the profession and encourage a new generation of project managers.
The objectives of the conference were:
- Reinforce the importance of women in project management
- Highlight the importance of women’s contribution to the economy through practical examples
- Provide opportunities for delegates to hear from leading professionals and to be inspired to drive the future in their own careers.
- Provide perspectives on what to ask of employers improve project delivery
- Provide food for thought for delegates to help them drive their own objectives and achieve their career goals
The document discusses Shell's operations across the energy supply chain from upstream exploration and production through midstream transportation and downstream manufacturing and sales. It provides overviews of Shell's activities in upstream oil and gas extraction, midstream pipeline transportation of crude oil and natural gas, and downstream refining and petrochemical production. It also identifies supplier opportunities in areas like equipment, services, infrastructure, and logistics across the different segments of the energy supply chain.
Deepwater Energy Conference (DEC)2018 was held in Haikou, China. This event featured a dynamic group of speakers who discussed how deepwater technologies unlock new resources and develop in different ways. For additional details see: http://www.decchina.cn/en
Shalu Asarikandy (Shell, India)
Monalisa Patel (Shell, India)
It is important to understand the commercialization potential of an emerging technology before taking any business decision. The degree of commercialization of a technology, especially emerging technologies can be measured based on different parameters like market information, finance, Intellectual Property. Patent information can be considered as one of the good source for assessing the level of progression of technologies from invention to commercialization phase. In this talk, different correlations based on patent bibliographic data will be presented with case studies carried out in different technology fields.
Initiated by the owner operator community, Capital Facilities Information Handover Specification (CFIHOS – pronounced “see-fos”) is an emerging standard for a consistent approach to information handover meant to reduce the inefficiencies and costs in the information supply chain.
As one of the initiative’s earliest adopters, Mike Curtin, VP Capital Project IM/IT, explains in this presentation how Shell’s project execution approach is evolving to align with the new standards, the impacts of CFIHOS on the industry and who is affected, and finally how technology is changing to support the shift. Mike also covers Shell’s journey from document to data centric information management for CFIHOS readiness, and finally,the next steps in their path towards digitalization across greenfield project execution and operations of existing assets.
AVEVA World Conference NA - Mike Curtin, ShellAVEVA-Americas
Initiated by the owner operator community, Capital Facilities
Information Handover Specification (CFIHOS - pronounced
“see-fos”) is an emerging standard for a consistent approach to
information handover meant to reduce the inefficiencies and costs in the information supply chain. As one of the initiative’s earliest adopters, Mike Curtin, VP Capital Project IM/IT, discusses how Shell’s project execution approach is evolving to align with the new standards, the impacts of CFIHOS on the industry and who is affected, and finally how technology is changing to support the shift. Mike also covers Shell’s journey from document to data centric information management for CFIHOS readiness, and finally, the next steps in their path towards digitalization across greenfield project execution and operations of existing assets.
Shell analyzed data from over 100,000 graduate applications to identify opportunities to streamline their recruitment assessments. They found that some assessments were not providing additional value. Shell worked to streamline the assessment process while keeping the most robust assessments. This resulted in a new streamlined process with fewer assessments that provided the necessary information with a better candidate experience.
This document summarizes a workshop on risk-based measurement, monitoring, and verification of carbon capture and storage projects hosted by Shell Canada Energy and the Quest subsurface team in Mobile, Alabama on May 16-17, 2012. The workshop aimed to share knowledge on evaluating and ensuring the effectiveness and safety of capturing and storing carbon dioxide underground. It focused on developing risk-based approaches to monitoring carbon dioxide movement and confirming storage permanence.
Royal Dutch Shell plc second quarter 2016 results webcast presentationShell plc
Ben van Beurden, Chief Executive Officer of Royal Dutch Shell plc hosted a live audio webcast of the second quarter 2016 results on Thursday July 28, 2016
A Better Life with a Healthy Planet: Pathways to Net Zero EmissionsGlobal CCS Institute
In July, the Shell Scenarios team released “A Better Life with a Healthy Planet: Pathways to Net-Zero Emissions”, a supplement that builds on Shell's New Lens Scenarios published in 2013, which showed that economic growth coupled with near net-zero emissions is a challenging but achievable vision.
The energy system responds to the demands of a growing number of people in the world with aspirations to make life materially better for themselves and their children. Meeting this demand will probably require approximately doubling the size of the global energy system over the course of this century. And that means the potential growth of atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases – unless something is done at the same time to reduce these emissions, so that there are no net additions. It is valuable to recognise, however, that a net-zero emissions world is not necessarily a world without any emissions anywhere. It is a world where remaining emissions are offset elsewhere in the system, an outcome that is more rapidly achievable and hence more consistent with limiting the accumulation of greenhouse gases. This means that the world will need “negative” emissions in some sectors to offset remaining emissions in others such that zero additional emissions enter the atmosphere – the so-called “net-zero.”
Shell’s work led to a conclusion that that providing the necessary energy in the context of net-zero CO2 emissions is technically feasible but it will be very challenging. We know that such a future will be built on a patchwork of solutions, not a single pathway. Solutions may work in one place even if they aren’t necessarily suitable for every situation. And it may be difficult to predict whether a solution that works well in the lab or on a small scale can succeed in global deployment. In this booklet, we distil what we have learned so far in an attempt to answer a fundamental question: How could the energy system evolve to provide “a better life for all with a healthy planet?”
The webinar was presented by David Hone. David is Chief Climate Change Adviser for Shell, a board member and former Chair of the International Emissions Trading Association (IETA) and a board member of C2ES in Washington. He is a regular climate blogger and is the author of a series of books on the climate issue under the title “Putting the Genie Back”. David provided a summary of the scenario and was followed with a live Q&A session with the webinar audience.
Shell responsible investor briefing in London – April 16, 2018Shell plc
Ben van Beurden, Chief Executive Officer, Hans Wijers, Non-Executive Director and Chair of the Corporate and Social Responsibility Committee, Harry Brekelmans, Projects & Technology Director, Donny Ching, Legal Director, and Maarten Wetselaar, Integrated Gas & New Energies Director, presented in London during the annual responsible investors briefing.
Shell responsible investor briefing in London – April 16, 2018Shell plc
Ben van Beurden, Chief Executive Officer, Hans Wijers, Non-Executive Director and Chair of the Corporate and Social Responsibility Committee, Harry Brekelmans, Projects & Technology Director, Donny Ching, Legal Director, and Maarten Wetselaar, Integrated Gas & New Energies Director, presented in London during the annual responsible investors briefing.
The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market has continued to defy expectations, growing by 29 million tonnes in 2017, according to Shell's latest LNG Outlook. Based on current demand projections, Shell sees potential for a supply shortage developing in the mid-2020s, unless new LNG production project commitments are made soon.
2014.11.28 - NAEC Group Meeting_Stefano ScarpettaOECD_NAEC
This document summarizes a meeting that discussed promoting inclusive growth through income, jobs, and health. It finds:
1) Higher income inequality lowers economic growth, while redistribution has not lowered growth.
2) Inequality undermines education opportunities for the poor by restricting access to credit.
3) Job quality, including earnings, security, and work environment, is important for well-being and economic performance beyond just employment levels.
4) Health and socioeconomic factors have a two-way relationship where socioeconomic disadvantages lead to health differences, and poor health drives inequality.
2014.11.28 - NAEC Group Meeting_Lamia Kamal-ChaouiOECD_NAEC
This document summarizes the work of the OECD's Inclusive Growth Initiative. It established a multidimensional framework to measure inclusive growth that accounts for income as well as non-income factors like employment and health. Between 2012-2014, the initiative delivered reports applying this framework and identifying policy areas that can boost both growth and inclusiveness. Going forward, it will refine the methodology, integrate inclusive growth analysis across policy sectors, and conduct national and regional case studies to strengthen the evidence base and mainstream inclusive growth policymaking.
2014.11.28 - NAEC Group Meeting_Shardul agrawalaOECD_NAEC
1) The document discusses new approaches to addressing environmental challenges. It focuses on three projects examining the costs of policy inaction on issues like climate change, the impact of tighter environmental policies on productivity, and the economic and social effects of environmental reforms.
2) It finds that the costs of inaction on climate change are substantial, with global damages estimated to reach 5-9% of GDP by 2100 under a business as usual scenario. Tighter environmental policies also do not necessarily harm productivity when properly designed.
3) The document advocates assessing reforms using macroeconomic models and microsimulation to evaluate their efficiency, environmental effectiveness, and distributional consequences like the impact of fossil fuel subsidy phase outs on household income.
2014.11.28 - NAEC Group Meeting_Adrian Blundell-WignallOECD_NAEC
The document discusses several issues related to finance and the economy. It notes that financial deregulation and innovation led to the 2008 liquidity crisis due to complex derivatives and relationships between counterparties. Since then, derivatives have shifted from banks to shadow banks. There has also been an emerging market bubble in corporate credit as investors seek yield. The document raises concerns about liquidity risks if interest rates rise or demand slows, given the shift away from banks as liquidity providers. It argues that new approaches are needed to encourage long-term, sustainable investment by non-banks.
1) The ECB Governor found conventional economic models provided limited help during the financial crisis as they failed to predict or explain what was happening.
2) He welcomed inspiration from other disciplines like physics, engineering, psychology and biology to develop new tools to improve the robustness of their framework.
3) A multi-disciplinary group at UCL is developing approaches using narratives and emotions extracted from big data sources like news to provide early warnings and better understand economic uncertainties.
The document discusses the use of narratives and numbers in climate change science and policymaking. It notes that while climate models provide quantitative projections, there is still significant uncertainty. Narratives are therefore also used to describe potential climate futures in a qualitative way. The "2 degree Celsius" narrative in particular aims to motivate climate action by framing 2C as the maximum safe level of warming. However, it emerged indirectly and its cost-benefit analysis is still debated. The document argues that to best inform policymaking, climate projections need to better integrate narratives with socioeconomic factors to assess impacts across scales and sectors. Foresight approaches should combine top-down and bottom-up methods to explore uncertain long-term issues like climate change.
This document discusses how ancient Greeks navigated uncertainty through oracles and narratives. It explores how oracles did not make predictions, but offered alternative stories that allowed people to create meaning and motivation. By generating potential stories for the future, oracles helped ancient Greeks navigate risk and make decisions. The document presents examples of oracle sites in Greece, the types of questions Greeks asked oracles, and images that help illustrate oracle practices.
The document discusses trends in currency-based measures taken by countries between 2005-2013. It finds that:
1) Emerging market economies had more currency-based measures in place in 2005, with limits on bank's net foreign exchange positions being most common.
2) From 2005-2013, countries eased currency-based measures leading up to the financial crisis, while tightening them more after 2008. Tightening focused on restricting foreign currency inflows and outflows through banks.
3) A few OECD countries actively increased restrictions over the period, while non-OECD economies liberalized significantly through adjustments to existing measures.
This document summarizes a seminar discussing the effects of growth-enhancing policies on microeconomic stability. It finds that while some pro-growth reforms can increase instability at the individual level, deeper reforms may boost growth without increasing volatility. Reforms like reducing employment protections and unemployment benefits can increase worker reallocation and earnings volatility, while well-designed social programs and competitive markets can attenuate these impacts. Policy settings are linked to a country's distance from the growth-volatility frontier, showing the importance of balancing economic goals.
This document summarizes a study on the effects of growth-enhancing policies on microeconomic stability. The study finds that policies promoting growth, such as reducing employment protection and product market regulation, can increase microeconomic instability for firms, workers, and households. However, deeper reforms may boost growth without raising instability. The analysis also shows that tax-benefit systems play a key role in attenuating the impact of individual income volatility on overall household income changes. While some pro-growth reforms have trade-offs with stability and inequality, well-designed policies, like expanding active labor market programs, can promote both growth and stability.
2014.10.10 - NAEC Seminar_Identifying Social and Emotional SkillsOECD_NAEC
The document discusses the role of social and emotional skills in human capital development and social progress. It argues that developing social and emotional skills in children is an important yet underutilized means of addressing socio-economic challenges. Evidence shows that social and emotional skills can significantly impact education, employment, health and other outcomes. The OECD can help by developing tools to reliably measure these skills and conducting policy analysis to inform national strategies.
This document outlines New Zealand's approach to national security which focuses on building resilience through a systems approach. It emphasizes managing risks, reducing vulnerabilities, and building resilience within the same framework. Recent crises in New Zealand like earthquakes and industrial accidents highlighted the importance of this approach and lessons around strengthening infrastructure, community support, and adaptive emergency management.
This document discusses how to make wise decisions in an uncertain global environment prone to surprises and shocks. It recommends building resilience by identifying sources of strength, conducting stress tests of policies, and choosing options that increase diversity, adaptability, decentralization, and connections while avoiding long-term commitments or reliance on single predictions. An example portfolio of resilience-building measures for Finland is provided, ranging from investment in trade partnerships to innovation for difficult economic periods. The goal is to develop a subset of actions that increase the ability to succeed across a variety of potential situations.
Governments face novel risks from increased shock events like disasters and crises in complex interconnected systems. Boosting resilience is important to minimize welfare losses. Resilience requires anticipating shocks, adapting, and learning. Major shocks can cause economic losses exceeding 20% of GDP with impacts propagating across sectors and borders. The OECD recommends a holistic risk governance approach integrating prevention, crisis management, and continual improvement to strengthen resilience at all levels.
2014.09.22 - NAEC Seminar_Origins of the crisisOECD_NAEC
The document analyzes the determinants of the financial crisis, identifying three key factors: 1) Low interest rates increased the supply of credit. 2) Rising income inequality and growth of institutional investors increased demand for mortgages and securitized bonds. 3) The rise of shadow banking and enabling factors allowed risks to accumulate in the financial system.
2014_09_19_NAEC Seminar_How good is your jobOECD_NAEC
The document discusses new approaches to measuring and assessing job quality. It proposes a framework that defines three key dimensions of job quality - earnings quality, labor market security, and quality of the working environment. It presents indicators to measure each dimension and compares job quality outcomes across OECD countries and socioeconomic groups. The framework aims to allow a more comprehensive assessment of labor market performance and the role of policies in determining job quality outcomes. Future work will expand the analysis to more countries and take a more dynamic perspective on career prospects.
This document summarizes the results of a seminar held by the ESCB Macro-prudential Research Network (MaRs) at the OECD in Paris on September 11, 2014. MaRs was established in 2010 to develop conceptual frameworks, models and tools to support macro-prudential supervision in the EU. It has three work streams related to macro-financial models, early warning systems, and assessing contagion risks. The seminar highlighted research from each work stream, including models linking financial stability and economic performance, methods for early warning systems and systemic risk indicators, and analysis of contagion mechanisms and tools for assessing contagion risks.
2014.09.09 - NAEC Seminar_Young SMEs, growth and job creationOECD_NAEC
This document summarizes a study analyzing firm-level microdata from 18 countries to understand employment dynamics and productivity. It finds that young small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are key drivers of job creation. While SMEs contribute significantly to job flows, only young SMEs create significant net new jobs. Start-up rates have declined in most countries. A new phase of the study will expand the country coverage and analyze productivity data to provide insights on differences in productivity across firms and countries. The findings aim to inform evidence-based policy analysis regarding size-contingent policies and their impacts.
The document discusses macroprudential policy in Switzerland. Imbalances were building up in the Swiss housing market, with rapidly rising real estate prices and high household debt levels. To address these risks, Swiss authorities adopted countercyclical macroprudential measures including a countercyclical capital buffer (CCB). The CCB has been activated at 1-2% of risk-weighted assets to increase banks' resilience and lean against excessive credit growth, though its effectiveness may be limited given regional housing booms and comfortable capital levels of domestic banks.
5 Tips for Creating Standard Financial ReportsEasyReports
Well-crafted financial reports serve as vital tools for decision-making and transparency within an organization. By following the undermentioned tips, you can create standardized financial reports that effectively communicate your company's financial health and performance to stakeholders.
Abhay Bhutada, the Managing Director of Poonawalla Fincorp Limited, is an accomplished leader with over 15 years of experience in commercial and retail lending. A Qualified Chartered Accountant, he has been pivotal in leveraging technology to enhance financial services. Starting his career at Bank of India, he later founded TAB Capital Limited and co-founded Poonawalla Finance Private Limited, emphasizing digital lending. Under his leadership, Poonawalla Fincorp achieved a 'AAA' credit rating, integrating acquisitions and emphasizing corporate governance. Actively involved in industry forums and CSR initiatives, Abhay has been recognized with awards like "Young Entrepreneur of India 2017" and "40 under 40 Most Influential Leader for 2020-21." Personally, he values mindfulness, enjoys gardening, yoga, and sees every day as an opportunity for growth and improvement.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
Fabular Frames and the Four Ratio ProblemMajid Iqbal
Digital, interactive art showing the struggle of a society in providing for its present population while also saving planetary resources for future generations. Spread across several frames, the art is actually the rendering of real and speculative data. The stereographic projections change shape in response to prompts and provocations. Visitors interact with the model through speculative statements about how to increase savings across communities, regions, ecosystems and environments. Their fabulations combined with random noise, i.e. factors beyond control, have a dramatic effect on the societal transition. Things get better. Things get worse. The aim is to give visitors a new grasp and feel of the ongoing struggles in democracies around the world.
Stunning art in the small multiples format brings out the spatiotemporal nature of societal transitions, against backdrop issues such as energy, housing, waste, farmland and forest. In each frame we see hopeful and frightful interplays between spending and saving. Problems emerge when one of the two parts of the existential anaglyph rapidly shrinks like Arctic ice, as factors cross thresholds. Ecological wealth and intergenerational equity areFour at stake. Not enough spending could mean economic stress, social unrest and political conflict. Not enough saving and there will be climate breakdown and ‘bankruptcy’. So where does speculative design start and the gambling and betting end? Behind each fabular frame is a four ratio problem. Each ratio reflects the level of sacrifice and self-restraint a society is willing to accept, against promises of prosperity and freedom. Some values seem to stabilise a frame while others cause collapse. Get the ratios right and we can have it all. Get them wrong and things get more desperate.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
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Enhancing Asset Quality: Strategies for Financial Institutionsshruti1menon2
Ensuring robust asset quality is not just a mere aspect but a critical cornerstone for the stability and success of financial institutions worldwide. It serves as the bedrock upon which profitability is built and investor confidence is sustained. Therefore, in this presentation, we delve into a comprehensive exploration of strategies that can aid financial institutions in achieving and maintaining superior asset quality.
Unlock Your Potential with NCVT MIS.pptxcosmo-soil
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2014.12.01 - NAEC-Strategic Foresight Workshop_Session 4_Wim Thomas
1. Copyright of Shell International B.V.
MODELLING AND QUALITATIVE
SCENARIOS
Wim Thomas
Chief Energy Advisor, Shell International BV
OECD - NAEC Seminar
Learning with Futures using
Narratives and Numbers
1 December 2014
2. Copyright of Shell International B.V.
DEFINITIONS AND CAUTIONARY NOTE
2
Reserves: Our use of the term “reserves” in this presentation means SEC proved oil and gas reserves.
Resources: Our use of the term “resources” in this presentation includes quantities of oil and gas not yet classified as SEC proved oil and gas reserves. Resources are consistent with the Society of Petroleum Engineers 2P and 2C definitions.
Organic: Our use of the term Organic includes SEC proved oil and gas reserves excluding changes resulting from acquisitions, divestments and year-average pricing impact.
Resources plays: our use of the term ‘resources plays’ refers to tight, shale and coal bed methane oil and gas acreage.
The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate entities. In this presentation “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal Dutch Shell” are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or companies. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this presentation refer to companies in which Royal Dutch Shell either directly or indirectly has control, by having either a majority of the voting rights or the right to exercise a controlling influence. The companies in which Shell has significant influence but not control are referred to as “associated companies” or “associates” and companies in which Shell has joint control are referred to as “jointly controlled entities”. In this presentation, associates and jointly controlled entities are also referred to as “equity-accounted investments”. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or company, after exclusion of all third-party interest.
This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘will’’, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘risks’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘should’’ and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this presentation, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including potential litigation and regulatory measures as a result of climate changes; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s 20-F for the year ended 31 December, 2013 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These factors also should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation, 27 November, 2014. Neither Royal Dutch Shell nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. There can be no assurance that dividend payments will match or exceed those set out in this presentation in the future, or that they will be made at all.
We use certain terms in this presentation, such as discovery potential, that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov. You can also obtain this form from the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330.
3. Copyright of Shell International B.V.
OVERVIEW
Success in the future depends not on the success of future decisions but on the future success of decisions taken today
Introduction
Shell’s scenario methodology
From storyline to quantification
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WHY DO WE USE SCENARIOS?
Relevant to our business
Develop or test strategies and plans
Search for resilience
Identify threats & opportunities and develop options
Make risky decisions more transparent
Focus on the ‘near future’, i.e. strategy & policy agenda next 1-3 years NOT on scenario horizon
Ask “what if” questions, not necessarily give answers
Challenge assumptions and mental models
Enrich debate and identify ‘certainties’
?
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LONG RISK HORIZONS
0
5
10
15
20
Years from discovery to first sales
Sakhalin II, Russia
2010
Gas Project Lead-time
5
SAKHALIN II LNG PLANT
LUNSKOYA PLATFORM
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OUR LEARNING TO DATE
Scenarios can help generate vision and strategy
Proper use requires ‘good’ scenarios and receptive organisation & culture
All scenarios need to be ‘focused’, plausible, recognisable, challenging and consequential
Must be underpinned by rigorous analysis and quantification
Integrate into the strategy process for flexibility in the strategic plan
Scenarios can be used for better project evaluation
BUT
Actual events often fall outside scenario range
A good “forecast” now and then helps credibility
Scenarios can be misused to justify bad judgement, strategy or timing
DO NOT FORGET
Communication, communication, communication
… after 40 years we are still learning
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UNDERSTANDING THE INTERACTIONS
Politics
Environment
Technology
Society
Economics
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WHAT REALLY MATTERS?
Outside the Box:
Things that matter and that people in the business don’t know about
Important/Impact
Inside the Box:
Things that matter and that people in the business know that matter
Critical Issues
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Surface implicit assumptions
Drivers
ELEMENTS OF SCENARIO BUILDING
Dynamics
Framework
1 2 3 4
Quantification
Pre-determined
?
Uncertainties
Frames of reference
Scenarios
relevant to decisions
10
Time Horizon
Problematique
Surface conflicts and dilemmas
?
Dominant mental models
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VARIETY OF METHODS
Inductive
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Official future
Forecast
Alternative scenario
Incremental
Normative
Vision
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
Deductive
Uncertainty 1
Uncertainty 2
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HOW FAR AHEAD DO WE SEE?
Event/Problem
focused
Short term
(2 years)
Medium term
(5-15 years)
Long term
(20 years)
Very
long term
(50 years)
Country/
business
focused
Business
focused
Issue
focused
(September 11th)
Subprime crisis
Deepwater Horizon
(Your Company)
(Mobility,
Cities)
(Energy systems)
Global
Scenarios
Long Term Energy Scenarios
Focussed Scenarios
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FEATURES OF A GOOD SCENARIO
Plausible
Recognisable from signals in the present
Internally consistent
Challenging
Consequential
… stories describing paths to different futures
Predictions
Projections
Preferences
X
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SHELL’S WORLD ENERGY DEMAND MODEL
TOTAL FINAL CONSUMPTION
100
100
YEARS
COUNTRIES & REGIONS (INC. 82 COUNTRIES INDIVIDUALLY)
14
SECTORS
10
ENERGY CARRIERS
18
ENERGY SOURCES
USA
CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES
TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND
ENERGY SUPPLY
REST OF EUROPE WEST OTHER
HEAVY INDUSTRY
SOLID HYDROCARBON FUELS
OIL
CHINA
REST OF EUROPE EAST OTHER
AGRICULTURE & OTHER INDUSTRY
LIQUID HYDROCARBON FUELS
NATURAL GAS
RUSSIA
REST OF EU NEW 13
GASEOUS HYDROCARBON FUELS
COAL
SERVICES
PASSENGER TRANSPORT – SHIP
PASSENGER TRANSPORT – RAIL
PASSENGER TRANSPORT – ROAD
PASSENGER TRANSPORT – AIR
FREIGHT TRANSPORT – SHIP
FREIGHT TRANSPORT – RAIL
FREIGHT TRANSPORT – ROAD
FREIGHT TRANSPORT – AIR
RESIDENTIAL – HEATING & COOKING
RESIDENTIAL – LIGHTING & APPLIANCES
NON ENERGY USE
INDIA
BALTIC STATES
ELECTRICITY – COMMERCIAL
NUCLEAR
JAPAN
REST OF CENTRAL ASIA
ELECTRICITY – DISTRIBUTED SOLAR PV
HYDRO-ELECTRICITY
GERMANY
REST OF EAST ASIA
BIO-FUELS – 1ST GEN
FRANCE
REST OF SE ASIA
BIO-FUELS – 2ND GEN
UNITED KINGDOM
REST OF MIDDLE EAST
BIOMASS – TRADITIONAL
CANADA
REST OF SOUTH ASIA
BIO-FUELS – MARINE
REST OF NORTH AFRICA
REST OF ARABIAN PENINSULA
REST OF AFRICA
OMAN
REST OF SOUTHERN AFRICA
REST OF NORTH AMERICA
REST OF WEST AFRICA
REST OF SOUTH AMERICA
REST OF CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
REST OF OCEANIA
AZERBAIJAN
PERU
MOROCCO
MOZAMBIQUE
ANGOLA
ECUADOR
LUXEMBOURG
YEMEN
HYDROGEN
HEAT – COMMERCIAL
HEAT – DISTRIBUTED SOLAR THERMAL
BIOMASS – COMMERCIAL
BIOMASS – TRADITIONAL
BIOMASS – COMMERCIAL
WASTE
GEOTHERMAL – HYDROTHERMAL
GEOTHERMAL – ENGINEERED
SOLAR – PHOTOVOLTAIC
WIND
TIDAL
WAVE
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SHELL’S OIL & GAS SUPPLY MODEL
YET TO FINDS
PRODUCTION
DEVELOPED RESERVES
UNDEVELOPED
DISCOVERED VOLUMES
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OIL 32%
GAS 22%
COAL 28%
BIOMASS 10%
NUCLEAR 5%
RENEWABLES 3%
FUELS 82%
ELECTRICITY
18%
RESIDENTIAL 24%
INDUSTRY & SERVICES 50%
TRANSPORT 26%
Shell’s World Energy Model sees the global energy system as one integrated ‘balloon’, expanding and contracting with population and economic development. Developments in one part of the world or value chain will interact elsewhere, allowing competitive and policy forces to play out coherently throughout the system.
TODAY’S ENERGY SYSTEM SETS THE CONTEXT FOR THE FUTURE
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SIX KEY DRIVERS OF THE ENERGY SYSTEM
18
19. WE ARE ENTERING
AN ERA OF VOLATILITY & TRANSITIONS
Political & social instability
Demographic transitions- urbanisation
Emerging resources Shale gas & oil
Challenged environmental boundaries
Building a ‘mini-lateral’ world
Intensified economic cycles
19
20. MOUNTAINS
A VIEW FROM THE TOP
Concentration of power – elites drive policy
Global economic growth moderates
Nationalist world
The Gas Backbone – the global shale revolution
Nuclear renaissance
Renewables sluggish
‘Clean’ energy: CCS takes off by 2030
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
EJ/yr
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
World Total Primary Energy
Oil
Biofuels
Natural Gas
Biomass Gasified
Coal
Biomass/Waste
Biomass Traditional
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Solar
Wind
20
Social stability, the long view
21. OCEANS
A VIEW OF THE HORIZON
World Total Primary Energy
Rising aspirations drive people power
Reform unleashes market forces and economic growth
A fast adaptors, open borders world
Energy supply struggles to keep pace with demand
Unconventional gas proves disappointing outside of NA
Rise of renewables
A late ‘Green’ world
Oil
Biofuels
Natural Gas
Biomass Gasified
Coal
Biomass/Waste
Biomass Traditional
Nuclear
Hydro
Geothermal
Solar
Wind
EJ/yr
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
21
Churn, innovation, reform
22. 22
GLOBAL ENERGY-RELATED CO2 EMISSIONS
?
Normative scenario
theoretically feasible but seemingly implausible
plausible but unfeasible?
Exploratory scenarios
OVERSHOOT, DAMAGE … REPAIR?
23. 23
NATIONAL CONTRAST
TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY IN OCEANS
USA
China
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Hydro-electricty
Biofuels
Biomass/Waste
Biomass Traditional
Geothermal
Solar
Wind
Other Renewables
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
EJ/Year (energy Source)
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
24. 24
SCENARIO CONTRAST
WORLD PASSENGER TRANSPORT
Mountains
Oceans
Combined with the impact of higher economic development, Oceans sprawling suburbs lead to higher travel needs than Mountains compact cities
Electricity and Hydrogen
Gaseous Hydrocarbon Fuels
Liquid Hydrocarbon Fuels & Biofuels
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Billion vehicle km
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
25. 25
SCENARIO CONTRAST
OPEC AND NON-OPEC PRODUCTION
Mountains
Oil, condensate & NGL production
Oceans
Oil, condensate & NGL production
The effect of abundant gas and a slower growing global economy affect the call on OPEC in Mountains
OPEC
Non OPEC
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
mboe / day
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
mboe / day
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HOW DO SCENARIOS COMPARE WITH OTHERS’ OUTLOOKS?
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Overall energy system balances on people’s needs, options, actions and reactions
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
EJ / year
Year
Total Primary Energy - World - All Sources
Mountains
Oceans
WEO14 CP
WEO14 NP
WEO14 450
EIA13 Ref
EIA13 HighEG
XOM 2014
BP 2014
FSB Energy External Scenario Comparison Tool v3.4
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We envisage the possibility of a significant different pathway for oil use
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
EJ / year
Year
Total Primary Energy - World - Oil & Biofuels
Mountains
Oceans
WEO14 CP
WEO14 NP
WEO14 450
EIA13 Ref
EIA13 HighEG
XOM 2014
BP 2014
FSB Energy External Scenario Comparison Tool v3.4
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Unconventional gas could make gas the dominant fuel in the 2030s … or perhaps not if fracking is opposed outside NA
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
EJ / year
Year
Total Primary Energy - World - Gas
Mountains
Oceans
WEO14 CP
WEO14 NP
WEO14 450
EIA13 Ref
EIA13 HighEG
XOM 2014
BP 2014
FSB Energy External Scenario Comparison Tool v3.4
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Is coal still king in future …?
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
EJ / year
Year
Total Primary Energy - World - Coal
Mountains
Oceans
WEO14 CP
WEO14 NP
WEO14 450
EIA13 Ref
EIA13 HighEG
XOM 2014
BP 2014
FSB Energy External Scenario Comparison Tool v3.4
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… or will nuclear see a revival …?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
EJ / year
Year
Total Primary Energy - World - Nuclear
Mountains
Oceans
WEO14 CP
WEO14 NP
WEO14 450
EIA13 Ref
EIA13 HighEG
XOM 2014
BP 2014
FSB Energy External Scenario Comparison Tool v3.4
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… or is the age of Renewables upon us?
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
EJ / year
Year
Total Primary Energy - World - Renewables & Biomass
Mountains
Oceans
WEO14 CP
WEO14 NP
WEO14 450
EIA13 Ref
EIA13 HighEG
XOM 2014
BP 2014
FSB Energy External Scenario Comparison Tool v3.4