Market conditions are improving, but unemployment is still declining too slowly and unevenly across countries. It is projected to continue its slow decline, reaching 6.6% in the last quarter of 2016 while remaining above 20% in Greece and Spain. Weak real wage growth remains an issue of concern, particularly in the Euro area. Minimum wages can help underpin the income of low-paid workers, but must be closely coordinated with tax-benefit policies to be effective. Wage inequality has been rising in a large majority of OECD countries. To minimise the wage gap, investing in skills is crucial – particularly where skills are scarce relative to demand. In terms of job quality, emerging economies perform worse than OECD countries. Youth, low-skilled and informal workers typically hold the poorest quality jobs. To make labour markets more inclusive, activation policies have to be designed to improve the employability, expand the opportunities and maintain the motivation of jobseekers.

1. OECD Global Parliamentary Network
Paris, 1 October 2015
2015 Edition of the OECD Employment
Outlook: an overview
Mark KEESE
Head of the Employment Analysis and Policy Division
Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs
OECD

2. OECD Employment Outlook 2015
 Evidence-based analysis of how labour markets function to
inform policies to foster more and better jobs
 The latest edition (launched on 9 July) focuses on:
o Minimum wages
o Skills and wage inequality
o Activation policies for more inclusive labour markets
o Earnings mobility, labour market risk and long-term inequality
o Enhancing job quality in emerging economies
 Key message:
o Time is running out to help workers move up the jobs ladder
2

3. 3
Challenge 1. Closing the jobs gap
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
%
Maximum gap
(country-specific trough)
Current gap
(Q2 2014)
Projected gap
(Q4 2016)
%-point change in employment rate since the onset of the crisis (Q4 2007)
a) Aggregate of 15 OECD countries of the euro area.
Source: OECD Employment Outlook 2015, Chapter 1.

4. 4
Challenge 2. Tackling high unemployment
Of particular concern, youth out of school & out of work and the long-term unemployed
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
%
Current value
(Q4 2014)
Start of the crisis
(Q4 2007)
Projected value
(Q4 2016)
a) Aggregate of 15 OECD countries of the euro area.
Source: OECD Employment Outlook 2015, Chapter 1.
Unemployment remains well above its pre-crisis levels in the majority of OECD countries
Unemployment rate

5. Challenge 3. Tackling persistent inequalities
*: Results based on annual earnings.
a) Simulations refer to individuals aged 15 to 54 in the reference year (20-54 for Denmark and Japan).
Source: OECD Employment Outlook 2015, Chapter 4.
Mobility reduces inequality by around only a quarter over the working life
Gini coefficient of active persons based on monthly earnings, simulations over 10 yearsa
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
Index
Short-term inequality
Long-term inequality

6. Long-term earnings inequality is largely determined
in the first ten years of workers’ careers
Percentage reduction in inequality due to mobility over 10 years, unweighted averages
across 23 OECD countries
a) Youth refers to persons aged 15-24, Prime-age to persons aged 25-44 and older workers to persons aged
45-54 in the reference year.
Source: OECD Employment Outlook 2015, Chapter 4.
0
4
8
12
16
20
Youth Prime-age Older workers
%

7. Solutions 1. Building a strong skills base and
using them effectively at work
a) The Survey of Adult Skills only covered Flanders (Belgium) and England/Northern Ireland (United Kingdom).
Source: OECD Employment Outlook 2015, Chapter 2.
Average numeracy scores and average skill use levels
2
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
250
255
260
265
270
275
280
285
290
295
Numeracy proficiency scores (left axis) Numeracy use (right axis)

8. Solutions 2. Minimum wages can help to
combat in-work poverty
Minimum wages as a percent of median earnings of full-time employees
Note: The data for Germany refer to 2015 using the results of the OECD Economic Outlook for May 2015 to project forward the value of
median earnings of full-time workers.
Source: OECD Employment Outlook 2015, Chapter 1.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
%
2013 2007

9. Solutions 3. Activation measures
for the most disadvantaged groups
Key elements for successful activation strategies

10. 10
Thank you
Contact: Paul.Swaim@oecd.org
OECD Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs, via www.oecd.org/els
Follow us on Twitter, via @OECD_Social
OECD Employment Outlook, via www.oecd.org/employment/outlook
OECD Employment database, via www.oecd.org/employment/database